Phuket ‘Third Wave’ COVID infections breach 1,000

[oldcpu]

On 7/30/2021 at 11:07 AM, DaveC said:

 

I don't know that the population figures you quote include itinerants living on the island. 

 

I do know that the Phuket News has highlighted the figures I mention and I would be very surprised if 446,000 out of 466,000 eligible had already registered.

I prefer to correct myself when I am wrong ... and it appears to me that your estimate of Phuket's population was closer than mine.

 

For some time, even before this  exchange of Phuket population estimates, I've been curious about the population of Phuket.  

 

I stumbled across this 17-June-2021 ThePhuket News article, which suggests your estimates of the Phuket population is closer to mine - and so I stand corrected, and further, if I offended at any time in my previous post, I apologize, ...  as that was not my intention to offend.

 

https://www.thephuketnews.com/officials-change-definition-of-population-of-phuket-claim-island-74-vaccinated-80369.php

 

The numbers in Phuket news don't exactly add up, which I guess is no surprise.  I don't think any one really knows the population of Phuket, given last years exodus of people leaving Phuket. ...   Still, I note according to that June-2021 Phuket news article, current estimates (where I assume this is people age-18 and older):
* about 310,000 people registered in Phuket
* about 100,000 people registered in other provinces who work in Phuket
* about  74,000 migrant workers or expats
...
which adds up to 484,000 people by my calculation.   This exceeds the 466,000 island population estimate the article also mentions.  However this is NOT all the people in Phuket.

 

The article also notes about 107,000 children under age-18. So 107,000 + 484,000 = 591,000, ... or about 600,000 people in Phuket, including children.

 

The article gives more numbers, confusing this further, but I now prefer to assume a population of 600,000 people in Phuket.

 

If one then looks at the 13-August report for Phuket vaccination status, where the target figure was 466,587 planned to be vaccinated where only 460,302 had registered for a vaccination, of which 424,637 had received one jab and 327,224 received 2 jabs.  

 

My calculation has 466,587 of 600,000 is a target figure of only about 77% of the Island's population planned to be vaccinated.

 

So as of 13-August-2021:

* 1 jab of 424,637 is about 70% of total population have received 1 jab.
* 2 jabs of 327,224 is about 54% of total population have received 2 jabs.

 

where this very unofficial and very rough estimate includes children and includes migrant workers/foreigners when trying to calculate the percentages.

 

I note that as many as 107,000 children in Phuket was a surprise to me.

 

I think my revised estimates are now much closer to what you were saying, than closer to what I had previously estimated (where my estimates were based on a smaller estimate of people in Phuket).

 

I didn't need to post this, but I prefer to correct my mistakes when I find them.

Edited August 15, 2021 by oldcpu

[DaveC]

3 hours ago, oldcpu said:

I prefer to correct myself when I am wrong ... and it appears to me that your estimate of Phuket's population was closer than mine.

 

For some time, even before this  exchange of Phuket population estimates, I've been curious about the population of Phuket.  

 

I stumbled across this 17-June-2021 ThePhuket News article, which suggests your estimates of the Phuket population is closer to mine - and so I stand corrected, and further, if I offended at any time in my previous post, I apologize, ...  as that was not my intention to offend.

 

https://www.thephuketnews.com/officials-change-definition-of-population-of-phuket-claim-island-74-vaccinated-80369.php

 

The numbers in Phuket news don't exactly add up, which I guess is no surprise.  I don't think any one really knows the population of Phuket, given last years exodus of people leaving Phuket. ...   Still, I note according to that June-2021 Phuket news article, current estimates (where I assume this is people age-18 and older):
* about 310,000 people registered in Phuket
* about 100,000 people registered in other provinces who work in Phuket
* about  74,000 migrant workers or expats
...
which adds up to 484,000 people by my calculation.   This exceeds the 466,000 island population estimate the article also mentions.  However this is NOT all the people in Phuket.

 

The article also notes about 107,000 children under age-18. So 107,000 + 484,000 = 591,000, ... or about 600,000 people in Phuket, including children.

 

The article gives more numbers, confusing this further, but I now prefer to assume a population of 600,000 people in Phuket.

 

If one then looks at the 13-August report for Phuket vaccination status, where the target figure was 466,587 planned to be vaccinated where only 460,302 had registered for a vaccination, of which 424,637 had received one jab and 327,224 received 2 jabs.  

 

My calculation has 466,587 of 600,000 is a target figure of only about 77% of the Island's population planned to be vaccinated.

 

So as of 13-August-2021:

* 1 jab of 424,637 is about 70% of total population have received 1 jab.
* 2 jabs of 327,224 is about 54% of total population have received 2 jabs.

 

where this very unofficial and very rough estimate includes children and includes migrant workers/foreigners when trying to calculate the percentages.

 

I note that as many as 107,000 children in Phuket was a surprise to me.

 

I think my revised estimates are now much closer to what you were saying, than closer to what I had previously estimated (where my estimates were based on a smaller estimate of people in Phuket).

 

I didn't need to post this, but I prefer to correct my mistakes when I find them.

Thank you for the update. The reason for my posts was to highlight that a nominated fully vaccinated rate of 70% was not even close on July 1.

 

As it has now transpired, failure to secure the bridge, was a much bigger problem than even the 70% aspiration particularly as mostly Sinovac was used.

Edited August 15, 2021 by DaveC

[oldcpu]

On 8/15/2021 at 9:50 AM, oldcpu said:

...   Still, I note according to that June-2021 Phuket news article, current estimates (where I assume this is people age-18 and older):
* about 310,000 people registered in Phuket
* about 100,000 people registered in other provinces who work in Phuket
* about  74,000 migrant workers or expats
...
which adds up to 484,000 people by my calculation.   This exceeds the 466,000 island population estimate the article also mentions.  However this is NOT all the people in Phuket.

 

The article also notes about 107,000 children under age-18. So 107,000 + 484,000 = 591,000, ... or about 600,000 people in Phuket, including children.

 

 

Further to this 600,000 estimate, I note now a recent Phuket news article  https://www.thephuketnews.com/pfizer-injections-begin-in-phuket-81309.php is stating a new target total of 547,584 representing the total registered population on the Island to be vaccinated.

 

I assume that includes (in addition to nominal Phuket registered residents)  migrant workers who registered for the vaccine, assume that includes expats who registered for the vaccine,  assume that includes people from other provinces who registered in Phuket for the vaccine.  Those are my assumptions.

 

The question for me now, is does it include children?  If one assumes 107,000 children under age-18, then how many are under age-12 ? and how many are age-12 to 18?  And does the 547,584 include children age 12-to-18 ? 

 

This now has me thinking the population of Phuket, if children are included, could be anywhere from 600,000 to 650,000  (where the 600,000 assumes children age 12-to-18 are in the 547,584 number, and the 650,000 assumes no children under age-18 are in the 547,584 number).

 

It makes me think even more - no one truly knows the exact population of Phuket at present time.

[nkg]

On 7/29/2021 at 9:23 AM, Kopitiam said:

How can you say "the international travellers are not bringing the virus" ? when this is reported:

 

"According to the Phuket Sandbox Daily Report for yesterday, issued by the Tourism Authority of THailand (TAT), of the 29 Sandbox arrivals who have tested positive for COVID-19 in Phuket, 13 tested positive on landing at Phuket airport, ...."

 

 

Well, you cherry picked that quote! What you don't mention is that the article (from the 29th of July) also says that 12,395 people arrived since July 1st.

 

So 13 out of 12,395 people arrived with the virus.

 

https://www.thephuketnews.com/phuket-third-wave-covid-infections-breach-1-000-80849.php

 

 

[Kopitiam]

3 hours ago, nkg said:

 

Well, you cherry picked that quote! What you don't mention is that the article (from the 29th of July) also says that 12,395 people arrived since July 1st.

 

So 13 out of 12,395 people arrived with the virus.

 

https://www.thephuketnews.com/phuket-third-wave-covid-infections-breach-1-000-80849.php

 

 

I was correcting "oldcpu" that international travellers do bring in some virus as highlighted by you above. 

You mentioned that the 600 daily tests were targeting mainly those with symptoms (thus cheery picking and missing those who don't show symptoms). And I commented that the positive cases should be even higher (those with symptoms).

[nkg]

3 hours ago, Kopitiam said:

I was correcting "oldcpu" that international travellers do bring in some virus as highlighted by you above. 

You mentioned that the 600 daily tests were targeting mainly those with symptoms (thus cheery picking and missing those who don't show symptoms). And I commented that the positive cases should be even higher (those with symptoms).

 

 

You must admit that 13 out of 12,000 is a vanishingly small number. Domestic cases were a lot lower in July, too, but as of today they have 241 cases out of 695 tests. As things stand now, the danger posed by international travellers following the sandbox rules is tiny.

 

I thought you'd made the post a day or 2 ago, I should have checked the date ???? Yes, you made some good points in that other thread.

[kiwikeith]

On 7/29/2021 at 7:01 PM, smedly said:

the writing is on the wall - they just don't see it or are refusing to believe it

They banned graffiti!