Offshore Account: What Currency To Use?

[Tiger7Moth]

I expect to open an offshore account and have the following currencies available:

Australian $, Canadian $, HK $, Swiss Francs, Japanese Yen. I may be able to select the Euro, optionally.

I would appreciate any comments/recommendations as to which of these currencies would be best for the period July of this year for 1 year.

Thanks for any thoughts

[Naam]

I expect to open an offshore account and have the following currencies available:

Australian $, Canadian $, HK $, Swiss Francs, Japanese Yen. I may be able to select the Euro, optionally.

I would appreciate any comments/recommendations as to which of these currencies would be best for the period July of this year for 1 year.

Thanks for any thoughts

unfortunately all prophets have died around twothousand years ago.

[Tiger7Moth]

I expect to open an offshore account and have the following currencies available:

Australian $, Canadian $, HK $, Swiss Francs, Japanese Yen. I may be able to select the Euro, optionally.

I would appreciate any comments/recommendations as to which of these currencies would be best for the period July of this year for 1 year.

Thanks for any thoughts

unfortunately all prophets have died around twothousand years ago.

Unfortunately, there are people on boards such as this who make stupid, meaningless comments. I see that you are an Advanced Member. Obviously Advanced refers to the number of posts and not the quality. If you feel a need to put your worthless thinking on the internet, why don't you start a blog. The number or readers of your blog would be an indication of how much your thoughts are appreciated.

You might be surprised to know that there are people who study and invest in currencies and can offer an informed opinion that would be helpful for someone like myself, who does not study currencies.

[naka]

Aussie or Canadian, for reasonable returns and upward potential.

Naka.

Edited May 28, 2007 by naka

[Crossy]

I'd use your 'home' currency assuming it's one of the 'hard' currencies. Otherwise Sterling, Euro, even Yankee dollar (it's got to go up sometime soon).

I have two, Euro and US$ (Sterling wasn't an option at my bank when I opened the accounts), linked cerdit card is in Euro.

[wca01]

The Swissie is undervalued and will gain strength during this year. Interest rates will go up to counter an imported inflation.

WCA

[Naam]

You might be surprised to know that there are people who study and invest in currencies and can offer an informed opinion...

people who offer "informed opinions" do indeed exist. i am well aware of that fact as i am since three decades a global investor. banks employ worldwide thousands of currency analysts who work for a living and a monthly salary. if their "informed opinions" would be only 55% correct, hardly any of them would put in 8 hours a working day in a boring office and study currencies. they'd do that in a comfortable home (perhaps located on their own island) and work for themselves.

i am getting daily currency recommendations from some of the biggest multinational banks, and that since a number of years. none of them has an impeccable track record, the @n@l-ysts are changing their minds more or less daily and most of the time it was more profitable for me to act against "informed opinions".

here's one of today from UBS (Union de Banques Suisses), feel free to take your pick:

Daily Forex

Upcoming economic data likely to support EURUSD

EURCHF: rate expectations help CHF

The slow CHF appreciation path against EUR continued, even though

EURCHF temporarily fell below 1.65 after hawkish comments from SNB officials led to rate hike expectations of 50bp at the next SNB meeting. As we

do not see any reasons for a such an aggressive policy, disappointments

could hurt CHF.

USD: Sell the rallies in critical week

USD is facing another difficult week with an extremely heavy data calendar

(GDP rev., ISM, labor market report). Recent strong releases failed to lift the

USD against EUR or GBP. Therefore the greenback is exposed to any weakness in upcoming releases and sell on rallies is our preferred strategy.

EURNOK: volatility likely ahead of rate decision

EURNOK fell under the level of 8.10. NOK was supported by the Positioning

for Wednesday's Norges Bank rate decision, we expect a 25 bp hike, and

option related trading. We expect volatility to increase before and after the

decision. We remain NOK-positive and stick to our 3m forecast at 8.0.

FX Heat Map

Currency Pair Actual

3m 6m Bias 1. Support 2. Support 1. Resistance 2. Resistance

EURUSD 1.3450 1.38 1.36 bullish 1.3000 1.3368 1.3686 1.3812

EURCHF 1.6514 1.66 1.63 bullish 1.5924 1.6295 1.6675 1.7268

USDCHF 1.2278 1.20 1.20 neutral 1.1882 1.1996 1.2283 1.2622

GBPUSD 1.9845 1.97 1.94 bullish 1.9144 1.9548 2.0050 2.0100

EURGBP 0.6779 0.70 0.70 neutral 0.6536 0.6670 0.6960 0.7023

GBPCHF 2.4362 2.37 2.33 bullish 2.2887 2.3292 2.4761 2.5555

USDJPY 121.62 118 116 neutral 114.46 117.62 121.38 122.19

EURJPY 163.57 163 158 bullish 155.34 159.66 165.00 170.00

USDCAD 1.0804 1.15 1.16 bearish 1.0806 1.0806 1.1169 1.1567

AUDUSD 0.8206 0.82 0.80 bullish 0.7682 0.7945 0.8390 0.8970

EURSEK 9.1883 9.20 9.15 neutral 8.9588 9.1272 9.3829 9.5057

EURNOK 8.0899 8.00 7.90 neutral 7.8577 8.0077 8.2119 8.3888

Date & Time / 28.05.2007 / 06:05:45 / CET

Forecast Technical Indications

[Tiger7Moth]

You might be surprised to know that there are people who study and invest in currencies and can offer an informed opinion...

people who offer "informed opinions" do indeed exist. i am well aware of that fact as i am since three decades a global investor. banks employ worldwide thousands of currency analysts who work for a living and a monthly salary. if their "informed opinions" would be only 55% correct, hardly any of them would put in 8 hours a working day in a boring office and study currencies. they'd do that in a comfortable home (perhaps located on their own island) and work for themselves.

i am getting daily currency recommendations from some of the biggest multinational banks, and that since a number of years. none of them has an impeccable track record, the @n@l-ysts are changing their minds more or less daily and most of the time it was more profitable for me to act against "informed opinions".

here's one of today from UBS (Union de Banques Suisses), feel free to take your pick:

Daily Forex

Upcoming economic data likely to support EURUSD

EURCHF: rate expectations help CHF

The slow CHF appreciation path against EUR continued, even though

EURCHF temporarily fell below 1.65 after hawkish comments from SNB officials led to rate hike expectations of 50bp at the next SNB meeting. As we

do not see any reasons for a such an aggressive policy, disappointments

could hurt CHF.

USD: Sell the rallies in critical week

USD is facing another difficult week with an extremely heavy data calendar

(GDP rev., ISM, labor market report). Recent strong releases failed to lift the

USD against EUR or GBP. Therefore the greenback is exposed to any weakness in upcoming releases and sell on rallies is our preferred strategy.

EURNOK: volatility likely ahead of rate decision

EURNOK fell under the level of 8.10. NOK was supported by the Positioning

for Wednesday's Norges Bank rate decision, we expect a 25 bp hike, and

option related trading. We expect volatility to increase before and after the

decision. We remain NOK-positive and stick to our 3m forecast at 8.0.

FX Heat Map

Currency Pair Actual

3m 6m Bias 1. Support 2. Support 1. Resistance 2. Resistance

EURUSD 1.3450 1.38 1.36 bullish 1.3000 1.3368 1.3686 1.3812

EURCHF 1.6514 1.66 1.63 bullish 1.5924 1.6295 1.6675 1.7268

USDCHF 1.2278 1.20 1.20 neutral 1.1882 1.1996 1.2283 1.2622

GBPUSD 1.9845 1.97 1.94 bullish 1.9144 1.9548 2.0050 2.0100

EURGBP 0.6779 0.70 0.70 neutral 0.6536 0.6670 0.6960 0.7023

GBPCHF 2.4362 2.37 2.33 bullish 2.2887 2.3292 2.4761 2.5555

USDJPY 121.62 118 116 neutral 114.46 117.62 121.38 122.19

EURJPY 163.57 163 158 bullish 155.34 159.66 165.00 170.00

USDCAD 1.0804 1.15 1.16 bearish 1.0806 1.0806 1.1169 1.1567

AUDUSD 0.8206 0.82 0.80 bullish 0.7682 0.7945 0.8390 0.8970

EURSEK 9.1883 9.20 9.15 neutral 8.9588 9.1272 9.3829 9.5057

EURNOK 8.0899 8.00 7.90 neutral 7.8577 8.0077 8.2119 8.3888

Date & Time / 28.05.2007 / 06:05:45 / CET

Forecast Technical Indications

Perhaps you have had your morning coffee since your 1st post.

I appreciate the "opinion" part of this post even though even I am aware of the mixed record that professional analysts have.

Individuals living or working in countries other than Thailand may very well be aware of important considerations with respect to that country. And, as participants of thaivisa.com, they can offer suggestions/thoughts (not guarantees). Living in Thailand, with the King concerned about the Court decision to be made this Wednesday, the Coup which occurred, the unrest in the South of Thailand, etc., etc. - if my brother living in the US asked me about the Thai baht, I would mention these factors and give my opinion that risk and uncertainty were very high.

At the end of the day, I must select some currency for my account. So, given my own lack of knowledge with regards to currency, asking for informed opinions is more reasonable then getting out the dart board.

[Naam]

At the end of the day, I must select some currency for my account. So, given my own lack of knowledge with regards to currency, asking for informed opinions is more reasonable then getting out the dart board.

you have not given any background information with "I would appreciate any comments/recommendations as to which of these currencies would be best for the period July of this year for 1 year."

that's why it is virtually impossible to advise you.

important questions you have to answer are:

-in what currency are you "thinking"?

-what yield do you expect?

-in what currency do you want to convert (if any conversion is planned) after the period you mentioned?

-are you willing to take risks in order to achieve a higher yield?

[Tiger7Moth]

At the end of the day, I must select some currency for my account. So, given my own lack of knowledge with regards to currency, asking for informed opinions is more reasonable then getting out the dart board.

you have not given any background information with "I would appreciate any comments/recommendations as to which of these currencies would be best for the period July of this year for 1 year."

that's why it is virtually impossible to advise you.

important questions you have to answer are:

-in what currency are you "thinking"?

-what yield do you expect?

-in what currency do you want to convert (if any conversion is planned) after the period you mentioned?

-are you willing to take risks in order to achieve a higher yield?

I understand.

I am from the US. I have savings in the US in US$. I also receive a retirement pension in US$. I live in Thailand and have been on occasion converting US$ to Thai baht. In the past 18 months or so, the baht:us$ exchange rate has gone from 42 to approx. 34. So, both my savings and my pension have less value than previously.

I can't do anything about my pension - will always be in US$. So, I am simply trying to move my savings into a currency that is at least not depreciating vs the baht.

Therefore, to answer the questions you put forward:

I am thinking in US$.

I will be converting to Thai baht.

0% yield with regards to currency is acceptable as I am willing to simply accept the benefit of Interest paid by the bank on my account. Greater than 0% would be nice. Hopefully somewhat consistent with my prior comments, I would be willing to accept a low level of risk to achieve a moderate yield.

I have read a number of "currency" discussions on this board. And so, I am aware that currency investing is very complex and my knowledge is almost non-existent. Having been totally in US$ and living in Thailand using the Thai baht, I am simply trying to avoid further bleeding with respect to my savings (no option with respect to my pension, as I mentioned).

I am not a global investor, such as you are and have no unrealistic illusions of becoming one at this stage in my life. In regards to this complex area, I am a simple guy just trying to get by.

Edited May 29, 2007 by Tiger7Moth

[bowthai]

one can look at purchasing power parity with the big mac index to see which currencies are overvalued and which are undervalued relative to the dollar.euros,pounds,etc.,are considerably overvalued while most asian currencies except for the free-floating baht are undervalued.as the yuan is allowed to rise so shall most asian currencies in lockstep with the yuan.

i am also in dollars but started diversifying away from it years ago through everbank foreign currencies and with foreign cash.have several hundred thousand bahts sitting in a safety deposit box that i purchased a few years ago when the baht was over 42+ baht per dollar so it is worth more at today's rate.i will be using the bahts until the rate changes favorably for the dollar before exchanging dollars to bahts again.

you should look at converting your dollars to asian currencies like yuan,yen,singdollars,etc.,or in commodity currencies like the aussie dollar or canadian dollar.

http://www.oanda.com/products/bigmac/bigmac.shtml

Edited May 29, 2007 by bowthai

[Naam]

I have savings in the US in US$. I also receive a retirement pension in US$. I live in Thailand and have been on occasion converting US$ to Thai baht. In the past 18 months or so, the baht:us$ exchange rate has gone from 42 to approx. 34. So, both my savings and my pension have less value than previously.

I can't do anything about my pension - will always be in US$. So, I am simply trying to move my savings into a currency that is at least not depreciating vs the baht.

I am thinking in US$. I will be converting to Thai baht.

0% yield with regards to currency is acceptable as I am willing to simply accept the benefit of Interest paid by the bank on my account. Greater than 0% would be nice. Hopefully somewhat consistent with my prior comments, I would be willing to accept a low level of risk to achieve a moderate yield.

living in Thailand using the Thai baht, I am simply trying to avoid further bleeding with respect to my savings

now we are getting closer Tiger. i assume you are planning to keep on living in Thailand and might use in future a part of your present savings to top up your pension and/or use a part of them for purchases (besides your actual living cost) which will be in Thai Baht too. your savings are already offshore (hopefully not in Thailand), in cash and can be converted any time. please correct me if i am wrong.

my opinion (not advice): you should think of changing at least 50% of your savings into €URos and keep the US-Dollars.

reasons:

-a number of currencies have appreciated vs. USD except JPY (Japanese Yen) which has -besides the €UR- the biggest upward potential. however, it might take years till the tide changes and it is not advisable to cash the pittance of 0.25% interest p.a.

-if USD erodes further a safe bet would be the €UR, interest on cash presently ~3.80% and two more rate hikes expected from the European Central Bank this year.

-THB (Baht) appreciation vs. USD has slowed down to a bearable level, if not stopped at all. the difference in interest between USD (~5.20%) and THB (~3.25%) will most probably compensate for any further appreciation of THB.

a 50:50 mix of USD and €UR earning an average of ~4.50% should solve your problem.

if you were an experienced investor with substantial savings my advice would have been a bit different but also quite complicated. that's why i tried to keep it simple.

p.s. if you have questions and would prefer not to ask them publicly you can send me a personal message any time. i'm glad if i can be of any assistance.

[Edonista]

I expect to open an offshore account and have the following currencies available:

Australian $, Canadian $, HK $, Swiss Francs, Japanese Yen. I may be able to select the Euro, optionally.

I would appreciate any comments/recommendations as to which of these currencies would be best for the period July of this year for 1 year.

Thanks for any thoughts

unfortunately all prophets have died around twothousand years ago.

Disagree.There are a lot of prophets out there , the problem is they are not right even 50% of the times !

[Edonista]

one can look at purchasing power parity with the big mac index to see which currencies are overvalued and which are undervalued relative to the dollar.euros,pounds,etc.,are considerably overvalued while most asian currencies except for the free-floating baht are undervalued.as the yuan is allowed to rise so shall most asian currencies in lockstep with the yuan.

i am also in dollars but started diversifying away from it years ago through everbank foreign currencies and with foreign cash.have several hundred thousand bahts sitting in a safety deposit box that i purchased a few years ago when the baht was over 42+ baht per dollar so it is worth more at today's rate.i will be using the bahts until the rate changes favorably for the dollar before exchanging dollars to bahts again.

you should look at converting your dollars to asian currencies like yuan,yen,singdollars,etc.,or in commodity currencies like the aussie dollar or canadian dollar.

http://www.oanda.com/products/bigmac/bigmac.shtml

hmmm...turkish lira is the only one emerging country currency to be overvalued to the $ in the BigMac index.

I guess I should start to worry....

[naka]

The Swissie is undervalued and will gain strength during this year. Interest rates will go up to counter an imported inflation.

WCA

Yea right Lost over 10% against the Euro while paying less than 1 percent interest.

The Franc is a dead duck nowadays.

Naka.

Edited May 29, 2007 by naka

[teejay]

I am not a global investor, such as you are and have no unrealistic illusions of becoming one at this stage in my life. In regards to this complex area, I am a simple guy just trying to get by.

Tiger7Moth, I would recommend a person in your position to keep the currency of your "home" country, and a portion if you would like in your "current residence aka. Thai" currency. As a non-investor type, you will sleep better.

Some suggestions above re: investing, but as I understand your question, you are just just a regular guy who doesn't want to take a huge hit on your savings...

FYI: I have permanant residence in Thailand, but keep all of my money (monies abroad, that is--not incl. monies already in the USA) in a multi-currency account in Hong Kong (almost always in USD). I made the decision to move most of my Thai-earned money over to HK at around 35THB/USD (which was good enough for me). And yes you can carry more than 50,000THB on a plane. I've moved over 400,000 USD over 2 months, in about 4 flights. 100grand US is about the size of 2 small bricks, and nobody cares, really (unless you are a drug dealer/other shady character).

[Naam]

hmmm...turkish lira is the only one emerging country currency to be overvalued to the $ in the BigMac index.

I guess I should start to worry....

we are lucky Edonista. i don't know when you got in but i am sitting on 26% appreciation (10½ months) and cashed an additional 18.50% p.a.

i am also convinced that TRY would have broken the 1.30 vs. USD without the freaking bombs in Ankara. BUT it can't go on for ever like this

[Edonista]

hmmm...turkish lira is the only one emerging country currency to be overvalued to the $ in the BigMac index.

I guess I should start to worry....

we are lucky Edonista. i don't know when you got in but i am sitting on 26% appreciation (10½ months) and cashed an additional 18.50% p.a.

i am also convinced that TRY would have broken the 1.30 vs. USD without the freaking bombs in Ankara. BUT it can't go on for ever like this

First tranche I changed euro to TRY at 1.91 , last tranche changed $ to TRY at 1.365 .

Only recently could enjoy the coupons tax free .

Anyway inflation in Turkey is too high to hope even for the exchange rate to keep position, and hoping for further appreciation seems plain heresy to me.

What I expect is to cash in 17% coupon while losing only 7% on exchange rate (and possibly gain something on quotation of my Austria 2012 if interest rates go down)

Now forgive me for an off topic but....do you know anything about toggle bonds ?

A few days ago read about them on Bloomberg....Univision and Realogy were the issuers, searched for news on their websites but found nothing. Would you be able to find ISIN codes and possibly websites for quotations ?

[Naam]

"Now forgive me for an off topic but....do you know anything about toggle bonds ?"

i know that a number of them exist Edonista but they are not my kind of baby. somehow they contain clauses which enable the debtor whether or how much interest he is supposed to pay (based on a number of credit events or business success).

[Naam]

"Would you be able to find ISIN codes and possibly websites for quotations ?"

i might find the ISINs (tomorrow) but the websites which carry quotes of exotic bonds are all restricted.

[Edonista]

"Would you be able to find ISIN codes and possibly websites for quotations ?"

i might find the ISINs (tomorrow) but the websites which carry quotes of exotic bonds are all restricted.

I have found this one US75605EAR18 REALOGY CORP. 12.375% 15.04.2015.

I can monitor quotes here:

http://datacenter.treasury.erstebank.com/w...ex.html?LANG=en

It's been constantly down , I think real bargain can be done when issuers start to use the "toggle" option and panic spreads. Just wait 6 months/ 1 year....

[Edonista]

hmmm...turkish lira is the only one emerging country currency to be overvalued to the $ in the BigMac index.

I guess I should start to worry....

we are lucky Edonista. i don't know when you got in but i am sitting on 26% appreciation (10½ months) and cashed an additional 18.50% p.a.

i am also convinced that TRY would have broken the 1.30 vs. USD without the freaking bombs in Ankara. BUT it can't go on for ever like this

For those curious about Turkish Lira it broke the 1.30 barrier and is trading now around 1.27 !

I just came back from Istanbul and to my opinion Turkish Lira is still undervalued compared to Europe prices, a 20% on goods and a 40% on services.

[Naam]

For those curious about Turkish Lira...

WHAT A BEAUTY!

http://isht.comdirect.de/charts/large.char...TGT&hcmask=

[pkrv]

Perhaps I can add something here. An entire FX dealing room found out that they were unemployed because they spoke to a phone engineer who came up with them in a lift and was there to cut off communication, or perhaps that the FX community were forced to renegotiate contracts (to 40k GBP per year) or be made redundant, then were made redundant, or perhaps with non transferable skills became bitter London Taxi drivers.

FX is full of loopholes but they do not remain there for long. Essentially FX is self correcting as it should be. If you are that good a player you would know all of the above or work out how to strip others of their money.