Germany’s Fourth Covid Wave: ‘A Pandemic of the Unvaccinated’

[GrandPapillon]

2 hours ago, ozimoron said:

Austria reimposes full lockdown, plans to make COVID vaccines compulsory

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/austria-reimposes-full-lockdown-makes-vaccination-compulsory-2021-11-19/

absolutely crazy, let's hope the other EU leaders don't follow that path

[Scott]

A post commenting on moderation has been removed. 

 

[blackprince]

 5 reasons (below) have been identified for the surge in Germany, but I can understand why a German official is particularly concerned about the unvaccinated infections because they are likely to hit the health services hardest (subject to age groups and other health conditions).

 

But without hard detailed data it's not possible to say which is the biggest cause, and it seems a bit unnecessary for people here to be intolerant of views that are different from their own.

 

My hunch is that complacency following vaccination is likely to be the single biggest cause of new cases, but without hard data it's just a hunch.

 

On the other hand in the UK it was schools that were the biggest single sources of new cases when I checked a couple of weeks ago. And given the very low incidence of serious illness in schoolchidlren, and the fact that most of their families have been double jabbed, it's not quite as serious as it might appear just on the basis of the numbers.

 

The effect of the unvaccinated

Waning immunity

Fewer contact restrictions

The delta variant is more infectious

The seasonal effect.

 

https://www.dw.com/en/5-reasons-germanys-covid-19-infections-are-soaring/a-59793087

 

[JustAnotherHun]

On 11/17/2021 at 2:59 AM, Scott said:

Here's an update on the situation for ICU beds in Germany as of Nov. 16:

 

Some intensive care units are already full, while other hospitals are having to cancel planned operations in order to divert staff to critical wards.

And here's -again! - a closer look at the situation in Germany as of Nov 19

 

Munich (hotspot, incidence according to RKI: 754)

ICU free units: 6%

ICU Covid patients: 23%

ICU non-Covid: 71%

 

Nationwide:

ICU free: 13%

ICU Covid: 14%

ICU non-Covid: 73%

[placeholder]

5 minutes ago, blackprince said:

 5 reasons (below) have been identified for the surge in Germany, but I can understand why a German official is particularly concerned about the unvaccinated infections because they are likely to hit the health services hardest (subject to age groups and other health conditions).

 

But without hard detailed data it's not possible to say which is the biggest cause, and it seems a bit unnecessary for people here to be intolerant of views that are different from their own.

 

My hunch is that complacency following vaccination is likely to be the single biggest cause of new cases, but without hard data it's just a hunch.

 

On the other hand in the UK it was schools that were the biggest single sources of new cases when I checked a couple of weeks ago. And given the very low incidence of serious illness in schoolchidlren, and the fact that most of their families have been double jabbed, it's not quite as serious as it might appear just on the basis of the numbers.

 

The effect of the unvaccinated

Waning immunity

Fewer contact restrictions

The delta variant is more infectious

The seasonal effect.

 

https://www.dw.com/en/5-reasons-germanys-covid-19-infections-are-soaring/a-59793087

 

Actually, in Germany, as in the UK, there's a political angle to it. The AFD, a far right wing political group, has come out against vaccinations. In states where the AFD is strong vaccinations are a lot lower. Vaccinations in general had plummeted.

Just in the past 2 weeks have vaccination levels begun to rise again

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/germany

[placeholder]

3 minutes ago, JustAnotherHun said:

And here's -again! - a closer look at the situation in Germany as of Nov 19

 

Munich (hotspot, incidence according to RKI: 754)

ICU free units: 6%

ICU Covid patients: 23%

ICU non-Covid: 71%

 

Nationwide:

ICU free: 13%

ICU Covid: 14%

ICU non-Covid: 73%

What's your point? Are you claiming covid patients aren't stressing ICU occupancy?

How frequently did German ICU's face this kind of pressure before covid

 

 

[JustAnotherHun]

Christian Drosten on 11.Nov. 2021:

"We don't have a pandemia of the unvaccinated"

 

A different scapegoat is urgently needed.

[placeholder]

8 minutes ago, JustAnotherHun said:

Christian Drosten on 11.Nov. 2021:

"We don't have a pandemia of the unvaccinated"

 

A different scapegoat is urgently needed.

Didn't he also accompany that comment with stressing the absolute necessity of getting the unvaccinated vaccinated and getting booster shots to everyone due for them?

Also, to be absolutely clear he was in no wise suggesting that the unvaccinated don't suffer disproportionately from Covid 19. Here's more from that doctor below:

 

Tougher Covid measures needed to stop 100,000 more deaths, warns top German virologist

If Germany does not immediately return to tough contact restrictions at least 100,000 people will die, Drosten predicted on his NDR podcast, adding that “that is a conservative estimate”.

“We have a real emergency situation now,” he said. “We need to do something immediately.”...

In the long term, he said, the “ideal goal” must be to have “a population completely vaccinated three times over”.

https://www.thelocal.de/20211110/covid-shutdown-measures-needed-to-stop-100000-more-deaths-warns-top-german-virologist/

 

Do you endorse this position on tough contact restrictions and universal vaccination?

 

 

 

 

[JustAnotherHun]

9 minutes ago, placeholder said:

What's your point? Are you claiming covid patients aren't stressing ICU occupancy?

How frequently did German ICU's face this kind of pressure before covid

 

 

Sure they are stressing the system. As the roughly three quaters of other ICU patients do.

How frequently? Well, regionally 2018 during a flew wave and nationwide 2012.

 

The point is, everybody knew the fourth wave would come in the autumn/winter season. In reaction, the ICU beds were reduced by 4000 since July and many more cannot be used because of a shortage of Staff.

 

Me and my colleagues demand since years a better payment für nurses. During the previous waves many of them left their jobs. Nothing was done!

 

We also demanded since months to change the 3-G-rule in the most endangered places like care homes.

Effect of 3-G was, that vaccinated, "fully immunized" visitors/staff had not to be tested when visiting or working with patients. They were a greater danger than the unvaccinated who needed tests every day.

We saw in the daily practice what the new Swedish study now proves.

Now, after months of doing nothing, those in charge finally react and change to 2-G which means, that recovered or vaccinated have to do the daily testing too.

[JustAnotherHun]

22 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Do you endorse this position on tough contact restrictions and universal vaccination?

Yes, with some reservations.

Edited November 19, 2021 by JustAnotherHun

[placeholder]

1 minute ago, JustAnotherHun said:

Sure they are stressing the system. As the roughly three quaters of other ICU patients do.

How frequently? Well, regionally 2018 during a flew wave and nationwide 2012.

 

The point is, everybody knew the fourth wave would come in the autumn/winter season. In reaction, the ICU beds were reduced by 4000 since July and many more cannot be used because of a shortage of Staff.

 

Me and my colleagues demand since years a better payment für nurses. During the previous waves many of them left their jobs. Nothing was done!

 

We also demanded since months to change the 3-G-rule in the most endangered places like care homes.

Effect of 3-G was, that vaccinated, "fully immunized" visitors/staff had not to be tested when visiting or working with patients. They were a greater danger than the unvaccinated who needed tests every day.

We saw in the daily practice what the new Swedish study now proves.

Now, after months of doing nothing, those in charge finally react and change to 2-G which means, that recovered or vaccinated have to do the daily testing too.

Really the other patients are stressing the system too? The only reason that they're stressing the system is because of the additional burden of covid patients. Most of whom are unvaccinated.

US hospitals, where nurses and doctors are paid much higher wages than their German counterports, are also experiencing staff shortages due to burnout. And now  that' vaccines are here, that's largely due to those selfish and foolish individuals who refuse to be vaccinated.

[placeholder]

15 minutes ago, JustAnotherHun said:

Yes, with some reservations.

Reluctant to share those reservations, are you?

[JustAnotherHun]

42 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Reluctant to share those reservations, are you?

It might seem so, yes.

Because I strongly doubt people here are interested in a more differentiated discussion. It's a religious war, based on believe.

You call those who rufuse to be vaxxed "foolish and selfish" and you think, they are responsible for the never ending pandemia.

Quote

Most of whom.. [ICU patients]..are unvaccinated.

I don't know where your data come from. In Germany those data are not collected, There are single hospitals and counties to start doing so.

Görlitz county, 12.Nov. 2021:

140 patients hospitalized, 70 vaxxed, 70 unvaxxed.

 

 

My experience after 18 months with daily feedback of and discussions with doctors, nurses on the frontline is different to yours.

 

And, to be honest: English is not my native language and the subject is more than complicated. It costs me much time to write slightly understandable. I cannot provide the links from my medical sources (German's not allowed). The efforts make no sense if in the end some moron comes up with a "I don't believe you".

 

Edited November 19, 2021 by JustAnotherHun

[placeholder]

48 minutes ago, JustAnotherHun said:

It might seem so, yes.

Because I strongly doubt people here are interested in a more differentiated discussion. It's a religious war, based on believe.

You call those who rufuse to be vaxxed "foolish and selfish" and you think, they are responsible for the never ending pandemia.

I don't know where your data come from. In Germany those data are not collected, There are single hospitals and counties to start doing so.

Görlitz county, 12.Nov. 2021:

140 patients hospitalized, 70 vaxxed, 70 unvaxxed.

 

 

My experience after 18 months with daily feedback of and discussions with doctors, nurses on the frontline is different to yours.

 

And, to be honest: English is not my native language and the subject is more than complicated. It costs me much time to write slightly understandable. I cannot provide the links from my medical sources (German's not allowed). The efforts make no sense if in the end some moron comes up with a "I don't believe you".

 

Well unless Germans are biologically different from other humans, it seems highly unlikely to the verge of impossibility, that the same percentage of vaccinated and unvaccinated Germans are dying from covid.

[JustAnotherHun]

10 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Well unless Germans are biologically different from other humans, it seems highly unlikely to the verge of impossibility, that the same percentage of vaccinated and unvaccinated Germans are dying from covid.

Very funny.

I correct your claim that "most of [patients] are unvaccinated" with an example, then you switch from hospitalzed patients do deaths.

[GrandPapillon]

2 hours ago, placeholder said:

What's your point? Are you claiming covid patients aren't stressing ICU occupancy?

How frequently did German ICU's face this kind of pressure before covid

 

 

according to some emergency doctor, and I don't have a link for this so don't start blaming me for this, ICUs beds are full most of the time in the year before COVID, hence why they have put a limited number of beds in ICUs for so many years, to  make sure they are fully occupied for most of the year

 

of course that plan backfired with COVID,

[placeholder]

1 minute ago, GrandPapillon said:

according to some emergency doctor, and I don't have a link for this so don't start blaming me for this, ICUs beds are full most of the time in the year before COVID, hence why they have put a limited number of beds in ICUs for so many years, to  make sure they are fully occupied for most of the year

 

of course that plan backfired with COVID,

Germany actually has one of the very highest rates of ICU beds on a per capita basis.

[GrandPapillon]

1 hour ago, placeholder said:

Reluctant to share those reservations, are you?

well can't blame him for this, can we ? ????

 

[GrandPapillon]

1 minute ago, placeholder said:

Germany actually has one of the very highest rates of ICU beds on a per capita basis.

absolutely they do, yet, they are full, and that could be to catch up for 2 years of COVID where certain operations were suspended. I know that's what I was told when I had to delay surgery, ICUs was full, and couldn't accommodate routine surgeries.

[GrandPapillon]

in short, you can't rely on official statistics to tell a story, things are way more complex

[placeholder]

1 minute ago, JustAnotherHun said:

Very funny.

I correct your claim that "most of [patients] are unvaccinated" with an example, then you switch from hospitalzed patients do deaths.

 

You don't think that there's a strong relationship between ICU occupancy and deaths? 

Here's a report from a distant nation called The Netherlands:

4 in 5 COVID-19 patients in ICU are not vaccinated

"4 in 5 COVID-19 patients in intensive care are not vaccinated against the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. The chance that a fully vaccinated person will end up in ICU due to COVID-19 is 33 times lower than for a non-vaccinated person."

https://www.rivm.nl/en/news/4-in-5-covid-19-patients-in-icu-are-not-vaccinated

 

I also have plenty of reports from America to confirm this but I figured that the Netherlands were slightly closer to home.

[GrandPapillon]

I think the issue is not how many patients are in ICUs, but more like how many unvaccinated died vs those that were fully vaccinated

 

it's quite clear that being fully vaccinated is not effective as we hoped it would be, hence we will need to get boosters every 6 months to beat that thing, if we can

 

I guess it's still a better solution than being in a full lockdown, but at the same time if some idiots don't want to be vaccinated, then we shouldn't force them to do so, it's their choice to take that risk

Edited November 19, 2021 by GrandPapillon

[Oblomov]

On 11/16/2021 at 2:00 AM, blackprince said:

*Deleted post edited out*

 

Not wishing to be disputatious, but the vaccines are not for "experimental" use, and no authority has ever claimed they are. And you need to familiarise yourself with what "emergency" use actually means regarding vaccines.

 

I assume by IFR, you mean the fatality rate (ie mortality/death rate). As I've pointed out even the right wing Telegraph acknowledges that the fatality rate is not the only issue, it's also the long covid rate (very high as indicated), and even more importantly the overloading of the NHS which you may remember was even Johnson's rallying cry last year.

 

I'll also add that prior to the vaccine rollout in the UK, Johnson's bungled response resulted in the UK achieveing the 3rd worst covid fatalities per 100,000 population in the world, as evidenced by John Hopkins, possibly the most comprehensive an reliable sours of international stats about this pandemic.

 

PS "An Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) is a mechanism to facilitate the availability and use of medical countermeasures, including vaccines, during public health emergencies, such as the current COVID-19 pandemic." FDA.

It's not a great mystery why UK fared so badly with fatalities - even before this present virus, the NHS was buckling under the strain of treating so many people with myriad and complex obesity related conditions. Theatre  and recovery medical professionals in our immediate family face huge additional problems treating any respiratory illness when people are so compromised by the many obesity related health issues. UK also has an extremely aged population so is hit hard also due to this.  In the last year or so, much more is being done institutionally and personally to address this, so that a more robust immune response can work in tandem with a pretty solid vaccination program.

 

Also, UK has much too densely populated cities (especially in 'flat-share' London.) to make distancing rules as effective as they might be in say Scandinavia. Waning vaccine immunity is being addressed pretty fast with 14 million boosters already administered to the oldest and those with compromised immune systems.

 

Therapies for the post-viral effects of Covid will hopefully be introduced in the race to keep up with a mutating virus. It's a wake-up call to all of us to get as fit as possible and the correct weight etc., as all treatments work much better  in these circumstances. 

 

 

[Oblomov]

3 hours ago, blackprince said:

 5 reasons (below) have been identified for the surge in Germany, but I can understand why a German official is particularly concerned about the unvaccinated infections because they are likely to hit the health services hardest (subject to age groups and other health conditions).

 

But without hard detailed data it's not possible to say which is the biggest cause, and it seems a bit unnecessary for people here to be intolerant of views that are different from their own.

 

My hunch is that complacency following vaccination is likely to be the single biggest cause of new cases, but without hard data it's just a hunch.

 

On the other hand in the UK it was schools that were the biggest single sources of new cases when I checked a couple of weeks ago. And given the very low incidence of serious illness in schoolchidlren, and the fact that most of their families have been double jabbed, it's not quite as serious as it might appear just on the basis of the numbers.

 

The effect of the unvaccinated

Waning immunity

Fewer contact restrictions

The delta variant is more infectious

The seasonal effect.

 

https://www.dw.com/en/5-reasons-germanys-covid-19-infections-are-soaring/a-59793087

 

As well as the inevitable schools component in UK, some of the difficulties arise from UK's population centres being so densely populated  - In London, a significant majority of houses are  multiple occupancy with multiple flats, each with multiple occupants. Like our seasonal flu outbreaks, that seemed to sweep through London extraordinarily fast (though none in the last 2 years) this virus finds the perfect breeding ground in places like London, with people squeezed into transport and accommodation, especially in the colder weather when life and transport switches indoors.

[SidJames]

Can anyone explain why Gibraltar is threatening to lock down & it has the highest vaccination percentage on the planet?

Also may I bring up the subject of attacks on unvaxxed people filling up ICU beds & ask if we know how many beds are filled with smokers?

I don't hear any government or political party in the world saying that they will ban smokers from working or going to social events & yet smoking is a real choice whereas catching a virus is not for the most part.

Will that only happen when the tax revenues from tobacco  don't meet the costs to health care?

Some countries are saying that they will make these vaccinations compulsory next year so will they also ban smoking?

Disclaimer: I'm double jabbed & used to chain smoke until I gave up 20 years ago.

[Scott]

3 minutes ago, SidJames said:

Can anyone explain why Gibraltar is threatening to lock down & it has the highest vaccination percentage on the planet?

Also may I bring up the subject of attacks on unvaxxed people filling up ICU beds & ask if we know how many beds are filled with smokers?

I don't hear any government or political party in the world saying that they will ban smokers from working or going to social events & yet smoking is a real choice whereas catching a virus is not for the most part.

Will that only happen when the tax revenues from tobacco  don't meet the costs to health care?

Some countries are saying that they will make these vaccinations compulsory next year so will they also ban smoking?

Disclaimer: I'm double jabbed & used to chain smoke until I gave up 20 years ago.

Smoking is addictive but it is not contagious.  Many, many places do not allow the use of tobacco.  

 

Smoking is really not comparable to an infectious viral disease.  

[placeholder]

11 minutes ago, SidJames said:

Can anyone explain why Gibraltar is threatening to lock down & it has the highest vaccination percentage on the planet?

Also may I bring up the subject of attacks on unvaxxed people filling up ICU beds & ask if we know how many beds are filled with smokers?

I don't hear any government or political party in the world saying that they will ban smokers from working or going to social events & yet smoking is a real choice whereas catching a virus is not for the most part.

Will that only happen when the tax revenues from tobacco  don't meet the costs to health care?

Some countries are saying that they will make these vaccinations compulsory next year so will they also ban smoking?

Disclaimer: I'm double jabbed & used to chain smoke until I gave up 20 years ago.

Smoking is an addiction.

Is not getting vaccinated also an addiction? Are non vaccinees crave the high they get when they are not vaccinated. Do they crave being not vaccinated time and time again?

Edited November 19, 2021 by placeholder

[SidJames]

5 minutes ago, Scott said:

Smoking is addictive but it is not contagious.  Many, many places do not allow the use of tobacco.  

 

Smoking is really not comparable to an infectious viral disease.  

It is Scott when you just compare deaths.

Can you name any countries where tobacco use is illegal?

Chewing tobacco increases mouth cancers although that is very much on the wane although there has been a fashion for snuff lately in some quarters but too small for it to count on any scale.

[Oblomov]

5 minutes ago, SidJames said:

Can anyone explain why Gibraltar is threatening to lock down & it has the highest vaccination percentage on the planet?

Also may I bring up the subject of attacks on unvaxxed people filling up ICU beds & ask if we know how many beds are filled with smokers?

I don't hear any government or political party in the world saying that they will ban smokers from working or going to social events & yet smoking is a real choice whereas catching a virus is not for the most part.

Will that only happen when the tax revenues from tobacco  don't meet the costs to health care?

Some countries are saying that they will make these vaccinations compulsory next year so will they also ban smoking?

Disclaimer: I'm double jabbed & used to chain smoke until I gave up 20 years ago.

Smoking, high levels of obesity, poor dietary choices... all contribute to less than robust immune responses to viruses and compromise treatments, including vaccines, as good as they have been at giving health services a chance at continuing most of their core functions.

 

It's been good to see all of the new walkers and joggers taking their health more seriously and I hope that continues. Improving vaccines along with improved personal responsibility for one's own health in some, as well as maintaining personal hygiene and common sense distancing gives us all a chance to move into the inevitable necessity of living with this, as well as all of the other nasties that have always been around.

 

I wonder if the age demographic has something to do with Gibraltar's decision to pre-empt an increase in cases. The news seems to be dominated by Germany and Austria at the moment so haven't seen anything about Gibraltar

[Scott]

Both Gibraltar and Germany have roughly the same demographic of elderly.   The elderly are roughly 25% of the population, so about 1/4 of the population is at higher risk from Covid on the basis of age.   The population density of Germany is 240 per Km² .  At 3369 per Km², Gibraltar is much more densely populated. 

 

Gibraltar runs a big risk of a fast, steep rise in cases compared to Germany, where it is likely to be a little more spread out.   What we've seen with high density areas is rather quick spread and in larger countries with varied densities, cities are hit hard earlier and then the less densely populated more rural areas.  

 

With older adults generally vaccinated first and many now experiencing waning immunity and children only being in the earliest stages of vaccination, it could end up with high rates of infection and hospitalizations.  Hopefully, deaths will be low.