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10,000 Anti-coup Demonstrators Expected At Sanam Luang Rally


george

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The SET index also looks very likely to hit a new high since 2004 at the end of today's tradings. I think the investor confidence has really been hit hard by yesterday's news of the massive and very successful protest (and of course the possibily of a 60-day delay of the election!!!!!! :-))) ) :D:D

:o:D:D

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You were at the rally? I thought you stationed in Pattani or something... :o

You may be surprised when you return after your stay in the US, but fortunately Thailand is not anymore depending on bullock carts and klong boats but has modern methods of transport such as airplanes and cars, which cut down traveling times from my house in Bangkok to Pattani (or something) to three and a half hours door to door.

Amazing, innit?

Yes, even if you don't like it, which you are free to of course, fact though is that the number of protesters at the march yesterday was around 10 000, and only slightly less than last week's march.

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You were at the rally? I thought you stationed in Pattani or something... :D

You may be surprised when you return after your stay in the US, but fortunately Thailand is not anymore depending on bullock carts and klong boats but has modern methods of transport such as airplanes and cars, which cut down traveling times from my house in Bangkok to Pattani (or something) to three and a half hours door to door.

Amazing, innit?

Yes, even if you don't like it, which you are free to of course, fact though is that the number of protesters at the march yesterday was around 10 000, and only slightly less than last week's march.

Oh I see. :o

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June 13, 2007 : Last updated 07:44 pm (Thai local time)
Anti-coup leaders say they expect over 50,000 people to attend a demonstration this Saturday.

10,000? What were they expecting this week?

or have they gotten out of the prediction business permanently, which is understandable as their wild numbers just seemed to have been getting more and more preposterous.

10,000 :o *yawn* :D

Edited by sriracha john
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June 13, 2007 : Last updated 07:44 pm (Thai local time)
Anti-coup leaders say they expect over 50,000 people to attend a demonstration this Saturday.

10,000? What were they expecting this week?

or have they gotten out of the prediction business permanently, which is understandable as their wild numbers just seemed to have been getting more and more preposterous.

10,000 :o *yawn* :D

I'm pretty sure that Dr. Weng said to Thai press that there would be 200,000 showed up yesterday. IMHO, his prediction was a bit off (much like Mobi's.) :D

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June 13, 2007 : Last updated 07:44 pm (Thai local time)
Anti-coup leaders say they expect over 50,000 people to attend a demonstration this Saturday.

10,000? What were they expecting this week?

or have they gotten out of the prediction business permanently, which is understandable as their wild numbers just seemed to have been getting more and more preposterous.

10,000 :o *yawn* :D

I'm pretty sure that Dr. Weng said to Thai press that there would be 200,000 showed up yesterday. IMHO, his prediction was a bit off (much like Mobi's.) :D

All very interesting but am I the only one finding it hard to work up much excitement in the numbers showing up.It's obvious that the numbers are nowhere near as high as the pre-coup PAD crowds but there could be reasons for that.The honest answer is that I don't know, but I do believe that on both sides of the political divide in Thailand there is a sullen and smouldering resentment, but most Thais are not yet anyway in the mood for manning the barricades or pulling up the pavement stones-French style.It's a time I suspect for watching and waiting, and the denouement is somewhere down the line.A lot will depend on the political skills and generosity of spirit among leaders of good will.

I was recently criticised for suggesting the IQ level of political discussion was falling.I should explain by this I was not suggesting that TV members were deficient in intelligence-far from it.What I mean is that discussion has been demeaned by a complete lack of perspective and pre-occupation with Thaksin's tribulations.Foreign commentators sometimes quickly see what some on the ground do not.The basic issue is that a noveaux riche ethnically Chinese businessman acquired too much power too quickly and that deeply unsettled the old guard of royalist, business and military vested interests who have had a monopoly on the "kin muang" process for decades.Thaksin was by any measure an unsavoury character and probably deserved to be deposed (in an election not a military coup).However distasteful though he might have been, he politicised the Thai rural and urban working class, the majority of Thais that the feudalists patronise and hold in contempt, but secretly fear.But the genie is out of the bottle now and the political landscape will never be the same again, and in the longer term yes that does mean a transfer of resources from the bloated haves to the more needy.

There are grounds for sensible discussion on the thesis I have presented above, and I have no monopoly of insight.But this post is really a plea for a more perspective driven debate.

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The basic issue is that a noveaux riche ethnically Chinese businessman acquired too much power too quickly and that deeply unsettled the old guard of royalist, business and military vested interests who have had a monopoly on the "kin muang" process for decades.Thaksin was by any measure an unsavoury character and probably deserved to be deposed (in an election not a military coup).However distasteful though he might have been, he politicised the Thai rural and urban working class, the majority of Thais that the feudalists patronise and hold in contempt, but secretly fear.But the genie is out of the bottle now and the political landscape will never be the same again, and in the longer term yes that does mean a transfer of resources from the bloated haves to the more needy.

There are grounds for sensible discussion on the thesis I have presented above, and I have no monopoly of insight.But this post is really a plea for a more perspective driven debate.

That is an excellent overview. So, what is there to debate?

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you see, the argument is that if you keep them in their place, then you'd preserve the thai way, which is very much tied to the idea of religion-nation-monarchy. the preservation of thai culture includes the preservation of the social strata which places a distinction between those who deserve (due to superior karma inherited from a past life), and those who obviously don't (due to the fact that they were born lowly). the need to modernise, educate and enrich the rural masses is therefore meaningless if not downright disruptive, since it would artificially place them in a higher karmic rung, which the elite so like to point out, their inability to hold on to the new wealth and to further entrench themselves in debt only further validates their lowly status. if they were meant to be rich, well they would be born so wouldn't they? so why bother anyway when the best thing to do is to let them know their place, accept their lot in life (this life anyway), be self sufficient and don't further burden the nation with their ignorance and unfair demands.

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...he politicised the Thai rural and urban working class, the majority of Thais that the feudalists patronise and hold in contempt, but secretly fear.But the genie is out of the bottle now and the political landscape will never be the same again, and in the longer term yes that does mean a transfer of resources from the bloated haves to the more needy.

Wishful thinking.

There's no evidence that lower classes have become any more politically active, unless you equate demand for pork barrel policies with political activity.

The elites currently in power appear to be more interested in lower classes long term benefits than Thaksin led businessmen. In fact it's TRT that should be afraid of the genie, not the "patronising feudalists".

One of the proposed alternatives to the coup was massive disillusionment among Thaksin's power base that was supposed to democratically overthrow his regime in a year or two. It had nothing to do with "feudalists" at all and I suspect the masses would actually turn to "feudalists" as an alternative to Thaksin in that case.

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Interesting developments this week include anti-PTV demos bigger than PTV demos.

Oh by the way I dont remember to date the military using their guns but I stand to be corrected.

You've got a little to learn about Thailand my boy!

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...he politicised the Thai rural and urban working class, the majority of Thais that the feudalists patronise and hold in contempt, but secretly fear.But the genie is out of the bottle now and the political landscape will never be the same again, and in the longer term yes that does mean a transfer of resources from the bloated haves to the more needy.

Wishful thinking.

There's no evidence that lower classes have become any more politically active, unless you equate demand for pork barrel policies with political activity.

The elites currently in power appear to be more interested in lower classes long term benefits than Thaksin led businessmen. In fact it's TRT that should be afraid of the genie, not the "patronising feudalists".

One of the proposed alternatives to the coup was massive disillusionment among Thaksin's power base that was supposed to democratically overthrow his regime in a year or two. It had nothing to do with "feudalists" at all and I suspect the masses would actually turn to "feudalists" as an alternative to Thaksin in that case.

You say "wishful thinking" but that's making the assumption, incorrect as it happens, that I as a foreigner am aligned to the aspirations of the Thai majority.Actually in some respect I am a political conservative influenced by Burke and de Tocqueville, and rather suspicious of mob politics.

I thought I had made it clear that the "lower classes", as you rather revealingly describe them, were currently in a rather sullen quiescent mood and certainly not in the mood for mass street protests.You rather make my point for me when you state the elites now in power are sensitive to the needs of the majority, as witnessed by the adoption wholesale of many of Thaksin's populist policies.If you studied history you would know that it has always been the case that elites keep themselves in power, when violent repression is not an option (which it is not now in Thailand, except in the fevered dreams of a few fascist generals ), by liberal minded reforms.The perpetuation of aristocratic power in the UK well into the twentieth century is a startling example of this.If the Thailand power elite shows the same enlightened self interest as the British Whigs, they can look forward to many decades of influence and prosperity - but that will not alter the fact the wheel has turned and the people will finally be the masters.

Your last paragraph is a little obscure to me but I do think that democracy should have been allowed to prevail, certainly messier and taking more time and we are living with the horrific consequences of the alternative.I understand the emotional attachment to "feudalism", but the power and substance of that power elite is slowly dying as it has elsewhere.The laws of gravity don't make an exception for Thailand

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Younghusband,

"Wishful thinking" - I didn't mean to say that you are personally share aspirations of lower classes (and let's not play political correctness here, if there are feudalists, there are lower classes, too).

"Wishful thinking" related to "genie out of the bottle" - perpetual Marxist idea that masses always want to be politically active. They don't. We passed the times when communism was inspiring. Societies have found ways to placate/relieve lower classes without outright confrontation. Genie has been out of the bottle for two centuries now, how many genuinely lower class based political parties are out there in the world? You yourself always argue for enlightened elite being in charge, not the peasants themselves.

Public political discourse is, and will be guided by middle classes here, not the peasants. Look at the emerging Ruam Jai Tai group, they use two pronged approach - on one hand they need vote winning local politicians, highly felixible lot devoid of any political platforms, on the other hand they put up a public image appealing to urbanites and businessmen - SET president Kittirat na Ranong, Vajirayudh College president Chai-anan, former Bangkok Governor Bhichit.

They can't bring some salt of the earth local MP from Nakhon Nowhere as a party leader or a policy maker. It won't work.

And look at Somsak's group, Matchima - they don't have any big names appealing to the public and they don't have any policies either and no one can guess what their policies might be. They rely on the local MPs and hope to join any future government coalition. They won't play any role in country's political direction despite representing the rural voters, the proverbial "genie".

The "genie" is actually middle classes who have asserted themselves over the past year, not the rural farmers or urban poor. It's the middle classes who pass the judgment on this or that political platform and protest over corruption and nepotism. Their views dominate the papers and talkshows, they've made inroads into all levels of governance and decision making in the country and it's increasingly more difficult to avoid their scrutiny.

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June 13, 2007 : Last updated 07:44 pm (Thai local time)
Anti-coup leaders say they expect over 50,000 people to attend a demonstration this Saturday.

10,000? What were they expecting this week?

or have they gotten out of the prediction business permanently, which is understandable as their wild numbers just seemed to have been getting more and more preposterous.

10,000 :o *yawn* :D

I'm pretty sure that Dr. Weng said to Thai press that there would be 200,000 showed up yesterday. IMHO, his prediction was a bit off (much like Mobi's.) :D

All very interesting but am I the only one finding it hard to work up much excitement in the numbers showing up.It's obvious that the numbers are nowhere near as high as the pre-coup PAD crowds but there could be reasons for that.The honest answer is that I don't know, but I do believe that on both sides of the political divide in Thailand there is a sullen and smouldering resentment, but most Thais are not yet anyway in the mood for manning the barricades or pulling up the pavement stones-French style.It's a time I suspect for watching and waiting, and the denouement is somewhere down the line.A lot will depend on the political skills and generosity of spirit among leaders of good will.

I was recently criticised for suggesting the IQ level of political discussion was falling.I should explain by this I was not suggesting that TV members were deficient in intelligence-far from it.What I mean is that discussion has been demeaned by a complete lack of perspective and pre-occupation with Thaksin's tribulations.Foreign commentators sometimes quickly see what some on the ground do not.The basic issue is that a noveaux riche ethnically Chinese businessman acquired too much power too quickly and that deeply unsettled the old guard of royalist, business and military vested interests who have had a monopoly on the "kin muang" process for decades.Thaksin was by any measure an unsavoury character and probably deserved to be deposed (in an election not a military coup).However distasteful though he might have been, he politicised the Thai rural and urban working class, the majority of Thais that the feudalists patronise and hold in contempt, but secretly fear.But the genie is out of the bottle now and the political landscape will never be the same again, and in the longer term yes that does mean a transfer of resources from the bloated haves to the more needy.

There are grounds for sensible discussion on the thesis I have presented above, and I have no monopoly of insight.But this post is really a plea for a more perspective driven debate.

I too find most Thai people very far from any form of uprising or anything near it, and agree what happens will depend largely on thsoe running th country in one shape or another over a period of years in the future. It remains hard to estimate how long this period will be but there is an obvious event that could also shake things up whatever is happening economically or politcally at the time of it.

I dont totally agree that Mr. Thaksin was nouveau riche in that he married into the old monied elite and used this as a springboard to launch his business and political careers. If he had not enterd teh elite he would not have stood a chance at that time. However, once there he did his best to set up his own networks to challenge traditional ones. A writer - I forget who right now - did an amusing piece on how when Mr. T first came to power he had the beauracrats who usually ran everything up country running around not knowing where they were as he changed their jobs and postings quite frequently, and this created an opportunity for new (TRT) mechanisms usually through the newish TAO/PAO bodies but also through more traditional feudal bodies. to take over the traditional role of control up country. This is quite important when disbursing money from the central coffers. This linked with the so called populist policies and excellent marketing obviously tied in with a tad of propoganda and information control in certain areas did create a challenge to the old groups. The politicization to some degree of the rural groups and more so the urban groups was probably more by accident than design intially although he played on this more as time went by and his position weakened. We shouldnt forget that when first elected Mr. Thaksin had a lot of support from the nouveau business community and indeed the business community and middle classes in general and it was actually this group to which he initially leaned. I wont go into it now but actually a study of who his advisers or inner core were at different periods of his tenure is quite interesting and also telling about the way he was leaning. Ironically as he became more under pressure he became more populist and he became closer to the powerful old time politcos in his party. But I digress.

And finally I agree that distribution of wealth will now become the critical thing for a new government. How it is managed by the next government or two will determine how easy or difficult Thailands politcal development will be. Only today I was reading something about Chart Thais new policy of one indebted farmer one hundred trees. It reminded me of something I have heard before in Thailand. The sad thing is now that having ten perties all trying to out-TRT each other in terms of what will be handed out is not in itself going to solve anything although it will get a fair number of people elected. What is needed now imho is long term policies that address the issues facing the country: distribution of wealth, inequality of opportunity, education. I still like to be an optomist and dont miss the excesses of Mr. Thaksin but in all seriousness and leaving pro and anti Thaksin jibes and banter aside it is getting harder to be that optomist.

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Interesting developments this week include anti-PTV demos bigger than PTV demos.

Oh by the way I dont remember to date the military using their guns but I stand to be corrected.

You've got a little to learn about Thailand my boy!

So when since the coup did they shoot people demonstrating against them?

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Hammered, keep counting heads....... stupid, it's the feeling of the majority that counts most, it's free and fair elections for all and it's a government allowed to perform under a good constitution that matters most. Whether it is an old god father (Chavalit, Banharn, Sanoth etc), Democrates or remnants of TRT, the military in this country have been and continue to be out of control. Just look at the budget they just processed! What a load of rubbish, and this is my taxpayers money and the future of my Thai kids I'm watching. I want better!

PS if you had demostrations against Prem in the north you would get many more than Songkla so it's a mute point, each area is supporting there local boy...

No need for insults. Everyone wants a better future for their kids.

I know certain areas of the North fairly well (not Chiang Mai) as I have family there and I actually dont think I could name anyone bar possibly one person who would demonstrate against Prem. Actually not that many seem to even care about him one way or the other. Then again there may be areas where he intensely disliked that I do not know of.

I would question if everyone is supporting their local boy. Why did the very openly Democrat backed candidate just get elected mayor of Chiang Mai over the incumbent ex-TRT candidate on quite a big turn out for a local election and with a substantial and unexpected majority. That doesnt seem to indicate a lot of local empathy for their expelled local boy. Then again it could be because of local reasons I guess.

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I was out with a bunch of Thai friends yesterday. After a few beers, they decided to head to the protest that was being held. They said they had gone before and were paid 500 baht for showing up. They felt it was a quick way to make a few baht and pay for some more beer.

I was a little skeptical, until I read this article in The Nation yesterday. Amazing they can pay people and yet the media reports that it is a valid protest. Unreal...

The Nation-Opinion

Here is an excerpt:

As for Thaksin's cronies who tried to organise paid rallies against the military establishment, their attempts have become futile because the ringleaders are trying to stash away the money intended to hire protesters. The ringleaders would rather save the money, knowing full well that the financial pipeline will dry up soon now that Thaksin and his family members might have to stay away from Thailand for good for fear of criminal prosecution.

Karma is catching up with Thaksin's cronies. That's why none of them wants to provide the money to pay for protesters, for fear that they too could be subjected to a freeze on their assets, quite a lot of which are ill-gotten gains for sure. What they will try to do is save what is left for the upcoming election.

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You are obviously new in this parts of the board, Craigt3365.

There's a number of posters here who honestly believe that paying people to demonstrate is a good thing and that it shows people active participation in politics.

Just yesterday someone said, possibly in jest, that money MUST be paid during elections to compensate for unfair political system.

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General Prem can't afford to ignore the current campaign waged against him, the Thaksin supporters will continue to protest as there's nothing else to do and if they gather 200,000 signatures demanding his resignation and present them to The King it's further pressure.

But what the PTV really need are some acts of violence committed against them or TRT by either the army or police.

They're trying to provoke- listen to their language; and I believe what they want is for one of the leaders to be arrested, preferably in public, instigating 'public outrage' at such 'heavy handed tactics'.

Call in the motorcycle taxis, factory workers, taxi drivers to help the 'freedom fighters' arrested by the 'dictators' and you have a possible flashpoint.

Edited by Siripon
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But what the PTV really need are some acts of violence committed against them or TRT by either the army or police.

They're trying to provoke

You mean like this?

shouter.jpg

A supporter of ousted Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra shouts at Bangkok police Sunday, July 1, 2007, during a demonstration in Bangkok.

Associated Press

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Younghusband,

"Wishful thinking" - I didn't mean to say that you are personally share aspirations of lower classes (and let's not play political correctness here, if there are feudalists, there are lower classes, too).

"Wishful thinking" related to "genie out of the bottle" - perpetual Marxist idea that masses always want to be politically active. They don't. We passed the times when communism was inspiring. Societies have found ways to placate/relieve lower classes without outright confrontation. Genie has been out of the bottle for two centuries now, how many genuinely lower class based political parties are out there in the world? You yourself always argue for enlightened elite being in charge, not the peasants themselves.

Public political discourse is, and will be guided by middle classes here, not the peasants. Look at the emerging Ruam Jai Tai group, they use two pronged approach - on one hand they need vote winning local politicians, highly felixible lot devoid of any political platforms, on the other hand they put up a public image appealing to urbanites and businessmen - SET president Kittirat na Ranong, Vajirayudh College president Chai-anan, former Bangkok Governor Bhichit.

They can't bring some salt of the earth local MP from Nakhon Nowhere as a party leader or a policy maker. It won't work.

And look at Somsak's group, Matchima - they don't have any big names appealing to the public and they don't have any policies either and no one can guess what their policies might be. They rely on the local MPs and hope to join any future government coalition. They won't play any role in country's political direction despite representing the rural voters, the proverbial "genie".

The "genie" is actually middle classes who have asserted themselves over the past year, not the rural farmers or urban poor. It's the middle classes who pass the judgment on this or that political platform and protest over corruption and nepotism. Their views dominate the papers and talkshows, they've made inroads into all levels of governance and decision making in the country and it's increasingly more difficult to avoid their scrutiny.

As I think I have mentioned in the past, I believe that in most circumstances one will see middle class leadership.I do not however think it's a Marxist concept that the majority should be involved in political activity since this is one of the responsibilities of citizenship.Incidentally if you are looking for a political party with working class roots, look no further than the emergence of the Independent Labour Party in nineteenth century Britain.

Yes you are right there is an element of successful political movements "placating" the masses but its not entirely cynical self preservation.There is often a genuine concern for social justice and a driving sense that each individual has the same worth as another.As we go forward I certainly expect to see further empowerment of ordinary Thais but with educated middle class leadership.

What's missing in Thailand is the awareness among the elite that this is the country for all its people.It's quite usual on this forum for posters to talk of "stupid ignorant peasants" or at least suggest their credulity,lack of education, propensity to be paid for voting etc precludes them from being qualified to determine the nation's future.It's a very flawed premise and in any case ignores the reality that the whole system is skewed, specifically in allocation of resources, to the urban middle classes.

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pop quiz for those who know thai history...

how many thai political and/or military leaders have been in exile over the last 100 years?

how many of those exiled thai leaders were accused of corruption, human rights abuses, tyranny, murder etc?

how many of those exiled thai leaders were ever brought to justice, i.e. brought home to face charges, indicted, imprisoned?

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General Prem can't afford to ignore the current campaign waged against him, the Thaksin supporters will continue to protest as there's nothing else to do and if they gather 200,000 signatures demanding his resignation and present them to The King it's further pressure.

But what the PTV really need are some acts of violence committed against them or TRT by either the army or police.

They're trying to provoke- listen to their language; and I believe what they want is for one of the leaders to be arrested, preferably in public, instigating 'public outrage' at such 'heavy handed tactics'.

Call in the motorcycle taxis, factory workers, taxi drivers to help the 'freedom fighters' arrested by the 'dictators' and you have a possible flashpoint.

This is a very real assessment. The closer the election comes the more desperate the protestors and maybe the rump TRT will become. At the moment they face likely defeat in the ballot and a freshly elected government. This will also receive a worldwide positive reaction, and probably supply at least a short term boost in investment. That will leave the protestors powerless to stop the investigations into the corruption of their leader and probably a bunch of them. Their cause of returning dear leader will be gone. Now is a high risk time although the increasing confidence of the government does give pause for some thought. The earlier the election the better imho.

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As I think I have mentioned in the past, I believe that in most circumstances one will see middle class leadership.I do not however think it's a Marxist concept that the majority should be involved in political activity since this is one of the responsibilities of citizenship.

In Marx days the majority consisted of peasants and low paid workers and he thought they would eventually lead societies. This didn't happen, of course, yet we still hear "genie out of the bottle" phrase, "Thaksin has awoken the masses" bla bla bla.

For some unexplicable reasons the same people who praise this would be awakening of the lower classes refuse to acknowledge the real emergence of a politically strong middle class. If there's any threat to the elites, it comes from there, not from the peasants.

It is clear in retrospective that it was the middle classes who overcame Thaksin, the generals just finished the job. The coup wouldn't have been possible without unified middle class opposition and it wouldn't have lasted without middle class support.

That is the gist of my objection to "genie" idea. The credit must go where it's due, not where people want it to be.

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in the lessor of two evils , democracy comes a poor third .................................

The sad reality of where we are or a general comment on democracy worldwide where so many only have a choice of the 2 parties the establishment offers?

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Demonstrators prohibited to bring animals to join in rallies

Metropolitan Police Commissioner Pol Lt Gen Adisorn Nonsri (อดิศร นนทรีย์) has warned demonstrators not to bring animals to the capital city.

In preparation for rallies at Sanam Luang, Pol Lt Gen Adisorn says policemen will not arrange any activities to obstruct demonstrators’ movements if they do not cause any trouble to public in general. He, however, prohibits if the protestors will bring animals to join in their rallies.

Following the demonstrators’ plan to march to the Parliament on July 6th, policemen have informed that they will not be allowed to pass Dusit Palace.

According to evaluation, Metropolitan Police Commissioner affirms that the situation is not at a crotical level, while believing state authorities can control the situation.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 04 July 2007

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Students burn effigies of the junta

Prachatai

04 July 2007

On July 3, students gathered in front of the Army Command Headquarters to demand the junta to return to their real jobs, and call to scrap the internal security bill, allegedly to perpetuate the junta's power.

The Students Network to Protect Democracy and the People burned effigies of Council for National Security (CNS) chairman Gen Sonthi Bunyaratklin, CNS deputy secretary-general Gen Saprang Kanlayanamit, Prime Minister Gen Surayud Chulanont, and Privy Council president Gen Prem Tinnasulanont, with the effigies shown to be trampling on a model of the Democracy Monument.

Translated and rewrited by Pnglert Pongwanan

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