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Thailand’s economy forecast to grow by 4% this year


snoop1130
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The Thai national economy is expected to grow by 4% this year, thanks to the limited impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic in many countries, the recovery in tourism under the “Test and Go” program and export growth, according to a forecast by the Fiscal Policy Office at the Finance Ministry.

 

Ministry Spokesman and Director of the Fiscal Policy Office, Pornchai Theeravet, said today (Friday) that originally projected growth of 1% for the whole of last year has been increased to 1.2%, thanks to an increase in exports, other economic stimulus packages and the improvement in the COVID-19 situation following mass vaccinations.

 

The country saw 0.2% expansion in consumption by the private sector for last year, with private sector investment increasing by 3.7% and exports by 19% which, collectively, contributed to the improved growth rate for last year, said Pornchai.

 

Full Story: https://www.thaipbsworld.com/thailands-economy-forecast-to-grow-by-4-next-year/

 

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-- © Copyright Thai PBS 2022-01-28
 

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13 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

The Thai national economy is expected to grow by 4% this year, thanks to the limited impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic in many countries, the recovery in tourism under the “Test and Go” program

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They are probably right, Teflon still shines in Thailand, I doubt that they can rely on tourism as much as they did in the past but there are enough entrepreneurs in Thailand who could take advantage of the damaged supply chain to make a quick buck in the next few years ahead.

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Total nonsense. Contract by 12% would be more truthful and accurate. Tourism alone contributed to 20% of the GDP, and it is gone baby gone. Although they have re-instated the test and go, and I give them credit for that, asking for the 2nd test after 5 days is enough of a hurdle, without asking for a 2nd night of quarantine. Sounds like a real deal breaker to me. Plus, foreign investments are dropping, as the world loses faith in the capability of this administration, and the real estate market is very weak. Both commercial and condos. So, stop playing these games, man up, and start telling us what is really going on. 

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More likely that I will grow 4% this year...

 

While I have no doubt that there will be a year when Thailand's economy will grow by 4%, I also think that it won't do so in 2022, and probably not in 2023 either.

Edited by StayinThailand2much
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Quite in line with ADB and WB forecast of 3.9% from rebound in exports and improved domestic spending while international tourism will continue to struggle. 

Edited by Eric Loh
Wrong word
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4% is actually very poor for a  developing country supposedly recovering from the pandemic. Even developed UK is forecast around 7% and France and Germany greater than 4%. 
The continued destruction of the tourist industry likely accounts for depressing a better figure.

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6 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Tourism alone contributed to 20% of the GDP

More like 10-15% according to my sources,

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36 minutes ago, Neeranam said:

More like 10-15% according to my sources,

I think when you take into account the entire (mostly underground and not accounted for) sex industry, it is 20%. A guy falls for a bar girl. Soon enough he is building her a 2-4 million baht home. Then he moves here and spends a million baht on a car. And an additional 100,000 baht a month. People like to downplay these numbers, but they add up. 

 

And there are alot of related industries and businesses that are likely unaccounted for in those numbers. 

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8 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

I think when you take into account the entire (mostly underground and not accounted for) sex industry, it is 20%. A guy falls for a bar girl. Soon enough he is building her a 2-4 million baht home. Then he moves here and spends a million baht on a car. And an additional 100,000 baht a month. People like to downplay these numbers, but they add up. 

 

And there are alot of related industries and businesses that are likely unaccounted for in those numbers. 

Good point. But many of these guys are not tourists as such. 

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1 minute ago, Neeranam said:

Good point. But many of these guys are not tourists as such. 

OK. Maybe we should say tourists and expats make up 20% of the economy. The shame is, expats are leaving by the tens of thousands. Being driven out by spectacularly stupid and toxic policy. 

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5 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

OK. Maybe we should say tourists and expats make up 20% of the economy. The shame is, expats are leaving by the tens of thousands. Being driven out by spectacularly stupid and toxic policy. 

Apart from showing your despise for the way that tourism has been managed, on which I agree, your posts make little sense. As you say, about 20% of real economy was in tourism/expat pre-pandemic. But there is the other 80%. The fact is, the first year of pandemic caused a giant drop in all world economies, irrespective of tourism. The rebound from that drop looks huge in percentage terms, even if we are still down to pre-pandemic. That is why countries like US, UK, France, etc are posting fantastic year-to-year gains of 6-7%. Why not Thailand, where the largest industries (manufacturing, agriculture) are aligned with the global economy. Deduct 20% (tourism) from 7% (total), and you are not far from the 4% forecast which is in fact smaller than many other large economies and looks realistic to me.

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14 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

I think when you take into account the entire (mostly underground and not accounted for) sex industry, it is 20%. A guy falls for a bar girl. Soon enough he is building her a 2-4 million baht home. Then he moves here and spends a million baht on a car. And an additional 100,000 baht a month. People like to downplay these numbers, but they add up. 

 

And there are alot of related industries and businesses that are likely unaccounted for in those numbers. 

But that is not tourism......

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