Thai Baht Volatility

[BigSnake]

Hear what she is saying, however at the moment that Baht is super strong against the U.S.$(dollar), be happy if you can use the Euro or the pound, I think exchange rate is a bit better than the dollar for now.

[lannarebirth]

Dr. Naam,

A little too hot for ya?

not hot but quite amusing

Quite right Dr. Naam, Shochu is very amusing, that is of course if you find complete ignorance of the facts funny! Shochu, like many of the U.S.A. bashers would have you believe that the U.S. has rising unemployment, high inflation, budget deficeits as far as the eye can see and a currency that no one has confidence in. First of all the unemployment rate in the U.S. is at historical low (4.5%) levels, it is actually approaching full employment (4%) which would not be a good thing for the economy. Secondly, even with the rising energy prices as of late the U.S. inflation rate is also at record low lelels(about 2.5%), a fact that is backed up by the inflation sensitive FED not raising the FED funds rate for quite a while now. Next we have the huge budget deficiet bugaboo, the fact of course is (for those that pay attention) that tax receipts are also at an all time high in the U.S. and despite the war spending and all of congresses wasteful spending, even conservative estimates are showing that the U.S. will have a budget surplus within three years. Now for that decimated U.S. dollar. The U.S. has indeed been running up some large trade deficeits and along with this has also (behind the scenes) let it be known that it had no intention of supporting the dollar, thereby giving the hedge fund industry a green light to short the U.S. dollar, which they have been doing for nearly 5 years now, but the party for the hedge fund (and the artificial element in dollars valuation) boys is coming to a close. The U.S. dollar has hit bottom and is at the begining of a long, slow reversal which the currency markets have just recently been confirming. Of course you don't have to listen to me, lets look at the recent survey of the worlds central bankers and in particular the question as to which currency they thought would be the strongest and safest over the next 25 years, the U.S. Dollar was their choice by a 4 to 1 margin! In summation, the U.S.A. is still the big boy on the block and will be for the forseeable future, so for all those U.S.A. haters out there just get use to it. Now before one of you financial delinquents starts up again about all that U.S. debt that China holds and how China could bring the U.S. to their knees ect. ect. ect. ad nauseum, the simple fact is that the toal ammount of U.S. debt instuments that China currently holds equates to a little more than 1 heavy volume day of trading in New York. In fact the real truth is that if the U.S. were to become isolationist and halt imports from China into the country tomorrow, the Chinese economy would come to a grinding halt! Now, back to the U.S. Open the premier golf tournament in the world.

I agree almost entirely with this Vic. Except I'm not at all sure the $USD has hit bottom. Indications are that it may have, and I have made decisions based on that assumption. If you know how to read a chart, you'll see that the charts I've placed above say we'll know (or have a good indication anyway) within a week. Good Luck everyone.

[lannarebirth]

And I know this is a baht thread, but Dr. Naam, would you mind, perhaps in a few weeks time, outlining the landscape for bonds? UST's and others. I think that's your speciality and it would seem if they plunge a bit (further, 10% perhaps) here it might be a good IT buy. TIA

[longway]

Now for that decimated U.S. dollar. The U.S. has indeed been running up some large trade deficeits and along with this has also (behind the scenes) let it be known that it had no intention of supporting the dollar, thereby giving the hedge fund industry a green light to short the U.S. dollar

Just for curiosity could you clarify this, as I find it difficult to understand how this is the case.

As I understand it, the $ is weak, for whatever reason, and China and Japan have been supporting the $ to keep their exports competitive. When you say that the USA has no intention of supporting the $ you make it sound like it is deliberate. However without Chinese support the $ would plunge and there would a massive shock to the world economy. Or am I wrong about this?

On my part. I'm not US bashing but think that the $ will decline for a few years to come as China lowers its support for the $. Personally I have made investments along the lines that things will continue as they are for a few more years at least, albeit with a gradually declining $.

[kdvsn]

Now for that decimated U.S. dollar. The U.S. has indeed been running up some large trade deficeits and along with this has also (behind the scenes) let it be known that it had no intention of supporting the dollar, thereby giving the hedge fund industry a green light to short the U.S. dollar

Just for curiosity could you clarify this, as I find it difficult to understand how this is the case.

As I understand it, the $ is weak, for whatever reason, and China and Japan have been supporting the $ to keep their exports competitive. When you say that the USA has no intention of supporting the $ you make it sound like it is deliberate. However without Chinese support the $ would plunge and there would a massive shock to the world economy. Or am I wrong about this?

On my part. I'm not US bashing but think that the $ will decline for a few years to come as China lowers its support for the $. Personally I have made investments along the lines that things will continue as they are for a few more years at least, albeit with a gradually declining $.

Throughout the dollar decline of the past few years, US Treasury officials have consistently said the they have a "strong dollar policy" though I'm hard-pressed to think of any actions that they have taken to support the dollar. My view is that they took this tact because if they spoke their true intention of letting the dollar devalue in order to prevent a deflationary scenario, the dollar would fall too far too fast. The only overt acts that I can point to that that the US has taken with the explicit intention of of devaluing the dollar are in negoations with China, where they have been pressuring the Chinese to float the Yuan under the assumption that it would appreciate versus the dollar and make Chinese imports less competitive.

[Naam]

And I know this is a baht thread, but Dr. Naam, would you mind, perhaps in a few weeks time, outlining the landscape for bonds? UST's and others. I think that's your speciality and it would seem if they plunge a bit (further, 10% perhaps) here it might be a good IT buy. TIA

i hesitate to do that Lannarebirth as i am not a better prophet than a lot of analysts who keep on "agreeing to disagree" and change their minds on a near daily basis with every published figure.

moreover, we would have to differentiate and look at the bond environment of the two major currencies (USD and €UR) where the "bond market music plays" as well as the currencies (high yield TRY, NZD, BRL) and (low yield JP¥ and CHF) which are used for carry trades (interest rate differentials).

the situation for UST has changed completely within a couple of weeks. nor more "educated" talk about the FED lowering 2nd or 3rd quarter but RAISING. expectations for €URoland are still the same, i.e. ECB two more quarter point hikes till the end of this year. having said so, it is important to mention that FED and ECB can easily determine short term rates but market forces are determining the interest rates beyond three months. good examples are the inverted yield curves of GBP and AUD.

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates/uk.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates/australia.html

i have never traded USTs but watch them very closely as they affect my dollar denominated bonds (55% of my bond portfolio). i also wish to point out that for a diversified global investor there is no way to bypass the dollar because no other currency provides that choice of bonds. that goes especially for the high yield bond segment.

[ray23]

I assume that everyone knows the Real Estate, market goes through a slow down cycle about every ten years. What we see now is nothing new. The first home I bought in Los Angeles cost 23 K. 1968. Today's cost well beyond 500K. But there have also been periods since 1968 you couldn't have given it away.

Just how long does it take currency to completly drop and destroy the world? How long has this subject been up for discusion. In one form or another seems to have been a few years now.

The biggest thing in the states upcoming, is a new President. They get a shot at two terms and thats it, a possible eight years and no more.

Does Uncle George understand fianance I doubt it seems to have ran a lot of companies in the ground before his political life. He has good advisors, however, does he seem like the kind of person who will liasten to the advice.

Without 9-11, Bush wouldn't be President now. No one wanted to change leaders in the middle of that aftermath.

You know not so many years ago I don't remember the Americans being hated on such a large scale . Won't long before new leadership steps in. I doubt that we will spend 12 years in Iraq as we did in Vietnam. The American political system is not perfect, Mr. Bush in his first election did not carry the popular vote. But the system is really based on a electoral votes By districts. Hence we had a President that the majority didn't want. The 9-11, carried him through.

Do you any of really think there won't be changes with a new President?

We need to see what those changes are an how it will effect the four years after the new election.

Personally I'm not throwing in the towel, because a bump in the road. I have seen utter destruction of the America economy being predicted for years now. But I haven' t seen it actually happen, over the last 6 decades. Major recession's yes, but the economy recovers and my guess it will this time as well.

[Naam]

As I understand it, the $ is weak, for whatever reason, and China and Japan have been supporting the $ to keep their exports competitive. When you say that the USA has no intention of supporting the $ you make it sound like it is deliberate. However without Chinese support the $ would plunge and there would a massive shock to the world economy. Or am I wrong about this?

On my part. I'm not US bashing but think that the $ will decline for a few years to come as China lowers its support for the $. Personally I have made investments along the lines that things will continue as they are for a few more years at least, albeit with a gradually declining $.

i don't think it's correct to speak of "support". it should be "keeping their currencies intentionally undervalued", and that by different means. as for China and Japan (and some other countries) buying USTs and adding them to their reserves there is NO other way. the lion share of their trade surpluses is in dollars and this surpluses canNOT be thrown on the market (as some naive persons suggest).

[bkkandrew]

As I understand it, the $ is weak, for whatever reason, and China and Japan have been supporting the $ to keep their exports competitive. When you say that the USA has no intention of supporting the $ you make it sound like it is deliberate. However without Chinese support the $ would plunge and there would a massive shock to the world economy. Or am I wrong about this?

On my part. I'm not US bashing but think that the $ will decline for a few years to come as China lowers its support for the $. Personally I have made investments along the lines that things will continue as they are for a few more years at least, albeit with a gradually declining $.

i don't think it's correct to speak of "support". it should be "keeping their currencies intentionally undervalued", and that by different means. as for China and Japan (and some other countries) buying USTs and adding them to their reserves there is NO other way. the lion share of their trade surpluses is in dollars and this surpluses canNOT be thrown on the market (as some naive persons suggest).

As I know you to be a very wise analyser of such matters, I rarely take issue with any of your posts, but it is the case that, economically, there is no reason for not putting accumulated USD assets (held by China/Japan), in fact, a macroeconomist's view would be that such a sale was essential to correct the currency value/trade deficit imbalance that the accumulation supported...

[Naam]

As I know you to be a very wise analyser of such matters, I rarely take issue with any of your posts, but it is the case that, economically, there is no reason for not putting accumulated USD assets (held by China/Japan), in fact, a macroeconomist's view would be that such a sale was essential to correct the currency value/trade deficit imbalance that the accumulation supported...

we all have and are entitled to our own opinions Andrew. only time will tell who was right and who was wrong.

[shochu]

Lanna,

I hope you don't really believe that - because it is a simplistic way of looking at things - it is a metaphysical approach - it is a way of valuing something but not representative of the nature of the two items. When you figure out the nature of the two things - then perhaps you will understand.

Dr. Naan,

You seem to enjoy taking shots at people but when your called on it - you always never reply - so - again - If you are such a great investor - then - why can't you afford a decent hotel room???

Mr. VIC,

You are a funny sheep - please continue to trumpet your rhetoric as I'm sure some fellow sheeple will appreciate the calling of their fellow brother in arms!

As I am tired of repeatng myself - go to the other topic where I have replied with a bit more words.

Your take on the U.S. is so text book - one has to wonder how you profit by it!

[Naam]

Dr. Naan,

You seem to enjoy taking shots at people but when your called on it - you always never reply - so - again - If you are such a great investor - then - why can't you afford a decent hotel room???

how much cheap booze friend Shochu? look at my home in Thailand known to a bunch of TV-members who have visited me and tell me why i would need a "decent" hotel?

[VegasVic]

Now for that decimated U.S. dollar. The U.S. has indeed been running up some large trade deficeits and along with this has also (behind the scenes) let it be known that it had no intention of supporting the dollar, thereby giving the hedge fund industry a green light to short the U.S. dollar

Just for curiosity could you clarify this, as I find it difficult to understand how this is the case.

As I understand it, the $ is weak, for whatever reason, and China and Japan have been supporting the $ to keep their exports competitive. When you say that the USA has no intention of supporting the $ you make it sound like it is deliberate. However without Chinese support the $ would plunge and there would a massive shock to the world economy. Or am I wrong about this?

On my part. I'm not US bashing but think that the $ will decline for a few years to come as China lowers its support for the $. Personally I have made investments along the lines that things will continue as they are for a few more years at least, albeit with a gradually declining $.

Throughout the dollar decline of the past few years, US Treasury officials have consistently said the they have a "strong dollar policy" though I'm hard-pressed to think of any actions that they have taken to support the dollar. My view is that they took this tact because if they spoke their true intention of letting the dollar devalue in order to prevent a deflationary scenario, the dollar would fall too far too fast. The only overt acts that I can point to that that the US has taken with the explicit intention of of devaluing the dollar are in negoations with China, where they have been pressuring the Chinese to float the Yuan under the assumption that it would appreciate versus the dollar and make Chinese imports less competitive.

Spot on kdvsn! Both Hank Paulson and his predecessor John Snow both steadfastly decried that they believe in a strong dollar, however their actions do not square with their public rhetoric. George Soros was the first in a long line of hedgies to begin shorting the U.S. dollar about 5 years ago and I can find nothing in print or actions by any treasury department officials to attempt to condemm this activity or to counter it, so by default they have encouraged the hedge funds to continue the downward manipulation of the dollar, which of course has been one of the main catlysts along with the Bush tax cuts for the incredible strength and growth of the U.S. economy these last few years. I also noticed Mr. Paulsons very public stance on the recent Chinese negotioations and for the first time I think that in part he may actually mean what he says. I do believe that the dollar has bottomed and although there will still be quite a bit of volitility in this trough area, I think that there will be an upward bias on the dollar for the next few years, mind you this will be a slow rise with some backfilling along the way, but the perfect storm for the weak dollar is coming to a close. It may be a good thing for the longterm health of the U.S. economy, because as the dollar starts to make appreciable gains some of those multinational U.S. companies that have been moving jobs overseas, will do a reversal and start keeping those jobs stateside. On a final note getting back to poster longways statement that "without the chinese support the U.S.dollar would plunge and there would be a massive shock to the world economy", I think you missd the party longway, the dollar has been plunging for a few years now and China invests its trade surplus in the U.S. because it is in their best interest and because that the U.S. dollar is still the benchmark currency not to mention the safest currency in the world (as witnessed by the recent survey of the worlds central bankers as to which currency they thought would be the strongest and safest over the next 25 years and they voted 4 to1 that the U.S. dollar would be). I think that if you have recently moved your investments out of dollar deonminated instuments that your timing and judgement may be a little out of kilter, but the best of luck to you anyway. Just remember that when the Chinese market tumbles, currency market fluctuations will follow, as a matter of fact watch the currency markets closely and they may very well predict the crash of Chinese equities. Good luck in any event.

[lannarebirth]

Lanna,

I hope you don't really believe that - because it is a simplistic way of looking at things - it is a metaphysical approach - it is a way of valuing something but not representative of the nature of the two items. When you figure out the nature of the two things - then perhaps you will understand.

It's not that I don't understand the relative value of two assets. It's just that I have a different view of "ownership". It's an artificial construct, perhaps an illusion, amyth. Doesn't mean you can't enjoy it for as long as that myth prevails, which can be generations long. I've drank the Kool Aid and so far so good.

[bkkandrew]

Dr. Naan,

You seem to enjoy taking shots at people but when your called on it - you always never reply - so - again - If you are such a great investor - then - why can't you afford a decent hotel room???

how much cheap booze friend Shochu? look at my home in Thailand known to a bunch of TV-members who have visited me and tell me why i would need a "decent" hotel?

Flower tub in foreground is at an awkward angle, making it aesthetically unpleasing. Shame on you. With your knowledge of all matters, these things should be dealt with..

[longway]

I think that if you have recently moved your investments out of dollar deonminated instuments that your timing and judgement may be a little out of kilter, but the best of luck to you anyway. Just remember that when the Chinese market tumbles, currency market fluctuations will follow, as a matter of fact watch the currency markets closely and they may very well predict the crash of Chinese equities. Good luck in any event.

Well I ve never had my money in $

In the last couple of years I've put my money into business and property in E. Europe and India. I pretty much believe that as big as the problems there may be on the horizon, China and the USA need each other too much to do anything vastly stupid, I hope anyway.

I still reckon the $ will fall for a while at least before things straighten out for the US. I can only speculate they have been printing money as fast as they can make it to finance their wars and deficits. Overall though I cant see the US going down the tube, though eventually I dont think it will retain its position as the worlds pre-eminent economic power in the same way it is now.

thats my 2 satang anyway.

BTW good luck to you too.

[Naam]

Dr. Naan,

You seem to enjoy taking shots at people but when your called on it - you always never reply - so - again - If you are such a great investor - then - why can't you afford a decent hotel room???

how much cheap booze friend Shochu? look at my home in Thailand known to a bunch of TV-members who have visited me and tell me why i would need a "decent" hotel?

Flower tub in foreground is at an awkward angle, making it aesthetically unpleasing. Shame on you. With your knowledge of all matters, these things should be dealt with..

old photo. road and hedge is property of and taken care by the "village". all ugly tubs removed several months ago after i convinced the management to do so.

[Irene]

I think that if you have recently moved your investments out of dollar deonminated instuments that your timing and judgement may be a little out of kilter, but the best of luck to you anyway. Just remember that when the Chinese market tumbles, currency market fluctuations will follow, as a matter of fact watch the currency markets closely and they may very well predict the crash of Chinese equities. Good luck in any event.

Well I ve never had my money in $

In the last couple of years I've put my money into business and property in E. Europe and India. I pretty much believe that as big as the problems there may be on the horizon, China and the USA need each other too much to do anything vastly stupid, I hope anyway.

I still reckon the $ will fall for a while at least before things straighten out for the US. I can only speculate they have been printing money as fast as they can make it to finance their wars and deficits. Overall though I cant see the US going down the tube, though eventually I dont think it will retain its position as the worlds pre-eminent economic power in the same way it is now.

thats my 2 satang anyway.

BTW good luck to you too.

longway,

You are right on. Most investors with their money on the line have your view.

[VegasVic]

I think that if you have recently moved your investments out of dollar deonminated instuments that your timing and judgement may be a little out of kilter, but the best of luck to you anyway. Just remember that when the Chinese market tumbles, currency market fluctuations will follow, as a matter of fact watch the currency markets closely and they may very well predict the crash of Chinese equities. Good luck in any event.

Well I ve never had my money in $

In the last couple of years I've put my money into business and property in E. Europe and India. I pretty much believe that as big as the problems there may be on the horizon, China and the USA need each other too much to do anything vastly stupid, I hope anyway.

I still reckon the $ will fall for a while at least before things straighten out for the US. I can only speculate they have been printing money as fast as they can make it to finance their wars and deficits. Overall though I cant see the US going down the tube, though eventually I dont think it will retain its position as the worlds pre-eminent economic power in the same way it is now.

thats my 2 satang anyway.

BTW good luck to you too.

Good play over the last couple of years in India and E.Europe( two of my brothers have made a killing over there also), but going forward I would be very careful with any investments in India, caveat emptor is definately the catch phrase for investing in India currently! The U.S. and China will indeed be tied at the hip for many years to come, and I will second your motion that they need each other too much to do anything vastly stupid. I think that the coming market crash in China will actually be a good thing in the long run for China (I know that sounds like a cruel thing to say, but sometimes the saying no pain no gain is true), because it will give the chinese a hard lesson in what can happen when a market economy (of course China is not yet a true market economy) gets ahead of itself. Hopefully the chinese can come out of the crash with a clear undrstanding that they really need to develop a strong domestic consumer market in order to fluorish in good economic times as well as the bad times. The dollar clearly hit bottom a few weeks back, but it will be a long and slow trek back for the dollar with many hiccups along the way. I think that the FED will likely raise rates at the Aug. or Sept. FOMC meeting which will strengthen the dollar further and as the U.S. draws down its involvement in Iraq later this year or early next year the dollar will continue to strenghten. As you accurately state, the U.S. will undoubtedly not maintain its dominance as the only economic and military superpower in the world, although I don't think our children will see this change in their lifetime but perhaps our grandchildren will see China reach their potential in their lifetime, and this will be a great day and a great relief to many americans that we no longer have the pressure of being the ploiceman, arbitrator, and banker for all the worlds woes! The U.S. is not actually "printing money as fast as they can" as you put it, because as I am sure you know that this would lead to high levels of inflation and inflation has been and currently is relatively low in the U.S., instead the U.S. issues these I.O.U.'s on the international debt markets called T bills and T notes. Generally speaking it seems that you have a better handle on what is happening than many on this forum, my only advice at this time would be don't bet against the dollar and be very careful with those India investments, after the chinese equity markets deflate India will likely follow suit. The very best of fortune in your investments my friend!

[bkkandrew]

A bit strange, but the BBC's market data for GBP - THB has remained at 0% change since the weekend.. This is dispite the fact that GBP has gone up about .7% against everything in the same period and XE.com has moved the THB quote by .8% in the same period.

The BBC is tracking all other currencies, however minor, quite correctly:

http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/fds/hi/...78/intraday.stm

Has the THB officially slipped off the edge of the world??

[cclub75]

The U.S. is not actually "printing money as fast as they can" as you put it, because as I am sure you know that this would lead to high levels of inflation and inflation has been and currently is relatively low in the U.S.

This is a beautifull masterpiece of the "CNBC thinking". "How on earth could you think that the money supply is increasing ? Check the inflation, it's still low !". By the way, it's also a nice example of syllogism...

Remember ? All the men are mortal. Socrate is a man. Therefore, Socrate is mortal.

The money supply under amphetamines is a fact.

(Last december) Australia, the M3 money supply is 13% higher from a year ago, British M4 is 13% higher, the Euro zone's M3 is 9.3% higher, a 16-year high, Korea's M3 is 10.3% higher, China's M2 is 16.9% higher, India's M3 is 20.5% higher, Russia's M2 is 45% higher !

Of course, in the US you would have some trouble to find the datas. The FED stopped the publication of M3 1 year ago.

How convenient... However, M3 is estimated at +10 % y-o-y in the US.

Oil, commodities, Real Estate (except in US)... Everything is going up. But, until the end, you would prefer to stick to the famous "Core CPI", a Consumer Price Index in which all the items that go up have been removed... And the remaining have been massaged with the "Hedonic Model".

It's pathetic. You should turn off CNBC. And find hard datas.

[longway]

longway,

You are right on. Most investors with their money on the line have your view.

thank you for your encouraging words.

Good play over the last couple of years in India and E.Europe( two of my brothers have made a killing over there also), but going forward I would be very careful with any investments in India, caveat emptor is definately the catch phrase for investing in India currently!

Yup exciting times for sure. I have been lucky enough to get a couple of very good opportunities, so i hope things work out. India is more LT for me, I know it reasonably well so can hopefully avoid the pitfalls. cheers.

[Naam]

Has the THB officially slipped off the edge of the world??

THB GBP from another source:

[shochu]

Lanna,

Fair enough.

Dr. Naan,

Am I supposed to be impressed by a house that costs a fraction of what mine does. So again - if you are such a wiz with investing - why can't you afford a decent hotel room - YOUR OWN WORDS FROM ONE OF YOUR POSTS!

VIC,

I have witnessed many people losing their entire life savings when I used to be in the biz - mostly retired or close to being retired. If anything - I hope you take a good hard look at your info. because you may be joining them in the not too distant future. Not somtheing I would wish on anyone!

[chiang mai]

Lanna,

Fair enough.

Dr. Naan,

Am I supposed to be impressed by a house that costs a fraction of what mine does. So again - if you are such a wiz with investing - why can't you afford a decent hotel room - YOUR OWN WORDS FROM ONE OF YOUR POSTS!

VIC,

I have witnessed many people losing their entire life savings when I used to be in the biz - mostly retired or close to being retired. If anything - I hope you take a good hard look at your info. because you may be joining them in the not too distant future. Not somtheing I would wish on anyone!

Leave it alone and get with the topic of the thread - folks are commenting on Thai Baht versus USD and GBP not a members housing situation or wealth.

[stament]

A bit strange, but the BBC's market data for GBP - THB has remained at 0% change since the weekend.. This is dispite the fact that GBP has gone up about .7% against everything in the same period and XE.com has moved the THB quote by .8% in the same period.

The BBC is tracking all other currencies, however minor, quite correctly:

http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/fds/hi/...78/intraday.stm

Has the THB officially slipped off the edge of the world??

I noticed that too, still no change as of 1300 GMT today. Not sure what's happening. Has anyone else checked Reuters or any other sites?

[lannarebirth]

A bit strange, but the BBC's market data for GBP - THB has remained at 0% change since the weekend.. This is dispite the fact that GBP has gone up about .7% against everything in the same period and XE.com has moved the THB quote by .8% in the same period.

The BBC is tracking all other currencies, however minor, quite correctly:

http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/fds/hi/...78/intraday.stm

Has the THB officially slipped off the edge of the world??

I noticed that too, still no change as of 1300 GMT today. Not sure what's happening. Has anyone else checked Reuters or any other sites?

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GBPTHB=X&a...m&q=l&c=

[Naam]

Dr. Naan,

Am I supposed to be impressed by a house that costs a fraction of what mine does. So again - if you are such a wiz with investing - why can't you afford a decent hotel room - YOUR OWN WORDS FROM ONE OF YOUR POSTS!

you are not only a clown Shochu but also quite obviously a bloody liar. i never mentioned anything about a hotel room, neither did i claim that i'am a wiz in investing.

p.s. it is quite interesting that you know how much i paid for my homes. CIA or MI5?

[VegasVic]

The U.S. is not actually "printing money as fast as they can" as you put it, because as I am sure you know that this would lead to high levels of inflation and inflation has been and currently is relatively low in the U.S.

This is a beautifull masterpiece of the "CNBC thinking". "How on earth could you think that the money supply is increasing ? Check the inflation, it's still low !". By the way, it's also a nice example of syllogism...

Remember ? All the men are mortal. Socrate is a man. Therefore, Socrate is mortal.

The money supply under amphetamines is a fact.

(Last december) Australia, the M3 money supply is 13% higher from a year ago, British M4 is 13% higher, the Euro zone's M3 is 9.3% higher, a 16-year high, Korea's M3 is 10.3% higher, China's M2 is 16.9% higher, India's M3 is 20.5% higher, Russia's M2 is 45% higher !

Of course, in the US you would have some trouble to find the datas. The FED stopped the publication of M3 1 year ago.

How convenient... However, M3 is estimated at +10 % y-o-y in the US.

Oil, commodities, Real Estate (except in US)... Everything is going up. But, until the end, you would prefer to stick to the famous "Core CPI", a Consumer Price Index in which all the items that go up have been removed... And the remaining have been massaged with the "Hedonic Model".

It's pathetic. You should turn off CNBC. And find hard datas.

Cclub, I don't need to find any particular hard data nor do I need to watch CNBC (by the way what is with you guys constantly bashing CNBC, I personally can't stand Cramer or Kudlow but you guys seem to think that CNBC is like some state run media outlet, are you all really that paranoid?) I can tell you personally from everyday living in the U.S. that I don't see any particular rise in the goods or services that I buy or use. When oil first shot over $60/barrel there was a whiff of inflation, but since then I can't think of anything in particular (except for perhaps imported produce) that has gone up in price. When Americans travel overseas their dollar doesn't goes as far, so many Americans have decided to take vacations within the U.S. where their dollar goes a lot further and of course they are helping to continue the growth of the U.S. economy. M3 is certainly rising in the U.S. just as you pointed out that it is rising across the world and I never said it wasn't , I merely pointed out that the U.S. government was not printing currency "as fast as they can" so they can pay for the war or pay for the debt or whatever other reasons that some of these loonies are claiming. If I were living abroad and trying to claim that I new that there was little or no inflation in the U.S. because I saw it in some government report or on some news program then you might have a point, but I am telling you firsthand from living in the states that I just don't notice any inflation in my everday life and if indeed the government was printing more currency "as fast as they can" then it would most definately show up in increased prices in goods and services. By the way I have always ejoyed your posts and I always thought that Socrates was indeed mortal.

[VegasVic]

Dr. Naan,

Am I supposed to be impressed by a house that costs a fraction of what mine does. So again - if you are such a wiz with investing - why can't you afford a decent hotel room - YOUR OWN WORDS FROM ONE OF YOUR POSTS!

you are not only a clown Shochu but also quite obviously a bloody liar. i never mentioned anything about a hotel room, neither did i claim that i'am a wiz in investing.

p.s. it is quite interesting that you know how much i paid for my homes. CIA or MI5?

Dr. Naam, I took the time to read some of shochus' posts and he(she) is indeed a bit of a clown and quite an odd buggar. I think replying to him(her) is a waste of time, so I have stopped doing so. My apologies to the board for going off topic!