Will the Australian dollar benefit from the Russian invasion.

[KhunHeineken]

On 3/30/2022 at 2:26 PM, Adumbration said:

Government in Australia has always been inept, and the frank stupidity and political naivety of the average Australian punter manifest. 

 

That is why a hung parliament is not a real issue.  Remember a few years back there was an extended hung parliament, things ran as usual because of permanent government staff, in the end it got embarrassing as the party members from both camps started to realise if they did not do something promptly it would dawn on even the bluntest bogan in the box that they were irrelevant.

 

I agree with you that moving forward Australia, and its dollar are done for.  No arguments there. But the factors I see as primary in the demise of the Australia dollar are different to the ones you have identified.  The most noteworthy is when China moves on Taiwan.  By the way, when that happens, the Thai regime will side with China, and, at best, farangs here will lose their visas.

 

  

You make some interesting points.  I had a laugh at the politicians being found out as irrelevant comment.  My point on that is, for world markets, government instability does play a role in investment, or lack of it.  A hung parliament creates uncertainty for investors.  

 

I think China will move on Taiwan in the future also, but whether it's the points I made, or an invasion of Taiwan that sends the AUD on a downward spiral, either way, it's done for, as you say.  It's only a question of time now.    

 

China's belt and road initiative has seen many countries indebted to China now.  Just as the US gathered a coalition of the willing, under the duress of declining trade and security with those who did not join the invasion of Iraq, China may call upon the countries indebted to it to support an invasion of Taiwan, and no doubt Thailand will be onboard. 

 

There may be sanctions placed on Thailand by many western countries, and then it's possible no visas will be issued, or renewed, to citizens from the countries who have placed sanctions on Thailand.  

 

The Thai government may then take the extra step to return Thailand to the Thai people, so to speak, with some anti foreigner rhetoric and promoting nationalism, and then anything is possible, such as reclaiming property owned by foreigners who no longer have a visa to live in the property.  

Edited April 1, 2022 by KhunHeineken