Markets shake out

[ozimoron]

6 hours ago, Lacessit said:

Off topic, McKinsey is a fraudulent organisation. Its technique is to promise the boards or CEO's of companies millions of dollars in cost savings, taking a 10% cut. It then comes in and destroys morale for about 6 months.

No-one ever goes back after a couple of years and runs an audit on whether the cost savings were actually achieved, or the enforced changes actually ended up costing more in the long term. It would be too embarrassing.

Think about the logic behind that claim. If it were true how does McKinsey survive?  It obviously works for the companies for McKinsey would go out of business. Do you have any eviudence that's true? I'm not denying it but it doesn't pass the sniff test.

[Sparktrader]

23 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

Think about the logic behind that claim. If it were true how does McKinsey survive?  It obviously works for the companies for McKinsey would go out of business. Do you have any eviudence that's true? I'm not denying it but it doesn't pass the sniff test.

Off topic again.

 

 

[Lacessit]

1 hour ago, ozimoron said:

Think about the logic behind that claim. If it were true how does McKinsey survive?  It obviously works for the companies for McKinsey would go out of business. Do you have any eviudence that's true? I'm not denying it but it doesn't pass the sniff test.

McKinsey survives because, as I said, no one goes back and checks. They also do highly convincing presentations, who wouldn't be dazzled by someone with an international reputation promising you cost savings of $100 million for a measly fee of $10 million?

 

I had the misfortune to be nominated as one of the leaders of their cost-cutting program in the company I worked for. The most barren 6 months of my working life.

 

I'll give just one example, I have others. In the restrooms, there were paper towels. The proposition was to install hot air dryers instead, as a cost saving.

I can't remember the amount of the cost saving, but it was blown out of the water by two events. The electricity contract was renegotiated shortly afterwards, with an increased tariff. Plus the breakdowns on the dryers was costing more in maintenance than the cost saving. We went back to paper towels about a year later.

 

None of this filters back up to the senior executives engaged in an orgy of self-congratulation about their improved bottom line, and their end of year bonuses.

 

If I was the owner of a business, and one of my managers came to me wanting to bring ANY management consultant in, I would fire that manager on the spot. Because I hired said manager to manage, not bring in someone to tell him/her how to do it.

[ozimoron]

2 hours ago, Lacessit said:

McKinsey survives because, as I said, no one goes back and checks. They also do highly convincing presentations, who wouldn't be dazzled by someone with an international reputation promising you cost savings of $100 million for a measly fee of $10 million?

 

I had the misfortune to be nominated as one of the leaders of their cost-cutting program in the company I worked for. The most barren 6 months of my working life.

 

I'll give just one example, I have others. In the restrooms, there were paper towels. The proposition was to install hot air dryers instead, as a cost saving.

I can't remember the amount of the cost saving, but it was blown out of the water by two events. The electricity contract was renegotiated shortly afterwards, with an increased tariff. Plus the breakdowns on the dryers was costing more in maintenance than the cost saving. We went back to paper towels about a year later.

 

None of this filters back up to the senior executives engaged in an orgy of self-congratulation about their improved bottom line, and their end of year bonuses.

 

If I was the owner of a business, and one of my managers came to me wanting to bring ANY management consultant in, I would fire that manager on the spot. Because I hired said manager to manage, not bring in someone to tell him/her how to do it.

Being dazzled and not checking results is not how big business works. I'm surprised you fell for this conspiracy theory.

[Lacessit]

1 hour ago, ozimoron said:

Being dazzled and not checking results is not how big business works. I'm surprised you fell for this conspiracy theory.

Unless you have actually experienced the process, you have no idea what you are talking about.

The company I referred to had two CEO's that nearly sent it broke with their stupidity, on a couple of gee-whiz deals which even a lowly peon like myself could tell were doomed to failure.

One of the CEO's issued an edict there was going to be quarterly performance reviews.

Don't tell me they can't be as dumb as a can of soup.

[ozimoron]

1 hour ago, Lacessit said:

Unless you have actually experienced the process, you have no idea what you are talking about.

The company I referred to had two CEO's that nearly sent it broke with their stupidity, on a couple of gee-whiz deals which even a lowly peon like myself could tell were doomed to failure.

One of the CEO's issued an edict there was going to be quarterly performance reviews.

Don't tell me they can't be as dumb as a can of soup.

I've been CEO of a corporation and had lots of other management experience. The notion that a company the size of McKinsey surviving by giving fraudulent information or that clients wouldn't demand background data is fanciful.

[Sparktrader]

Woolworths ceo had a shocker with Masters. A drunk tradie could see Masters would fail. Their product range inferior, prices the same and poor locations.

 

$3.2bn losses.

 

Most ceos live with their heads in the clouds. No practical experience.

[Sparktrader]

4 hours ago, ozimoron said:

I've been CEO of a corporation and had lots of other management experience. The notion that a company the size of McKinsey surviving by giving fraudulent information or that clients wouldn't demand background data is fanciful.

Everyone on the internet is a ceo right? You said you worked in pubs before.

[ozimoron]

27 minutes ago, Sparktrader said:

Everyone on the internet is a ceo right? You said you worked in pubs before.

casinos, for the government.

[Lacessit]

9 hours ago, ozimoron said:

I've been CEO of a corporation and had lots of other management experience. The notion that a company the size of McKinsey surviving by giving fraudulent information or that clients wouldn't demand background data is fanciful.

You're telling me CEO's of corporations can't make dumb mistakes, or background data can't be fabricated. That's just as fanciful.

McKinsey is in the job of selling their wares, which are promises of cost savings. I've given you one example of why some of the cost savings are imaginary.

If you care to look up the history of the HBI project in Port Hedland, you'll find it took BHP's board about four years to wake up to the fact site management was actually

keeping two sets of accounts.

[Sparktrader]

7 hours ago, Lacessit said:

You're telling me CEO's of corporations can't make dumb mistakes, or background data can't be fabricated. That's just as fanciful.

McKinsey is in the job of selling their wares, which are promises of cost savings. I've given you one example of why some of the cost savings are imaginary.

If you care to look up the history of the HBI project in Port Hedland, you'll find it took BHP's board about four years to wake up to the fact site management was actually

keeping two sets of accounts.

Telstra

Bhp

Nab

 

Big blunders

 

Ivory tower syndrome.

[swissie]

On 7/18/2022 at 5:40 AM, Lacessit said:

It's far more likely Russia is going to be the failed state. America nearly sent itself broke with Vietnam, and they had a much larger economy.

 

You do seem to be obsessed with hedonistic and effete Westerners, Fact: The military arms of Western countries are professional soldiers, not the poorly-trained conscripts Russia is putting into the battlefield to be slaughtered.

 

IMO no Western leaders will be going to Moscow to beg for gas, because they realize Putin can't be allowed to get away with flouting international norms, and committing war crimes. It's Iraq invading Kuwait all over again, on a larger scale. When Putin says he wants to restore the USSR to its former glory, everyone is now taking him seriously

 

"What makes them want to be part of "the west"?."

 

Are you serious? When Stalin orchestrated a famine in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions which killed about 6 million Ukrainians, you think they will just say let bygones be bygones? Ukraine, Poland, Hungary etc. have had their taste of living under the Russian jackboot, no desire to repeat the experience.

 

Fact again: The linguistic links with Russia are enforced teaching of Russian in Ukrainian schools. Ukrainian itself is a separate language, with a different alphabet.

 

There are two excellent books on Russia I recommend you read. Old, but they still ring as true as when they were written:

 

"Journey Into Russia" by Sir Laurens van der Post.

 

" The Future is ours, Comrade"  by Joseph Novak.

 

They give pretty good insights of what it is like to live in a Soviet-style system, and that's where Putin is taking Russia.

 

 

 

I think worth replying.

Quote: "You do seem to be obsessed with hedonistic and effete Westerners, Fact: The military arms of Western countries are professional soldiers, not the poorly-trained conscripts Russia is putting into the battlefield to be slaughtered".

Reply: They are short of military hardware as well as ammo and "fighting spirit".
-----------
Quote:  "What makes them want to be part of "the west"?."Are you serious? When Stalin orchestrated a famine in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions which killed about 6 million Ukrainians, you think they will just say let bygones be bygones? Ukraine, Poland, Hungary etc. have had their taste of living under the Russian jackboot, no desire to repeat the experience.

Reply: In Poland, Hungary etc "democratic values" are being de-based with the approval of the electorate. "Strong Leaders" in demand. Home grown "Stalins" acceptable, them syphonig as much EU funds into their countries as possible. Corruption accepted as a way of  life.   
------------
Quote: "Fact again: The linguistic links with Russia are enforced teaching of Russian in Ukrainian schools. Ukrainian itself is a separate language, with a different alphabet".

Reply: Since the 9th century, both languages have evolved seperately. Russians can understand Ukrainian and vica-versa. Very similar to German/Dutch.
==================
And today? The new Tsar can decide over the economical faith of Europe. Currently resuming limited amounts of gas to arrive in Europe again.  Not enough to fill our gas storage facilities for winter. Should the West not "behave", come winter, he will turn off the gas.

This will give us more opportunities in the west to have "candlelight-dinners". Wrapped up in furs, imported from Russia.????

[swissie]

On 7/14/2022 at 11:44 AM, Lacessit said:

The last time I looked, inflation in Russia is 17%. GDP is predicted by Russia's own apparatchiks to shrink by 10%. The Russian economy will be hit for the next ten years, and their manufacturing and mining capabilities are degrading month by month. The aircraft industry will be forced to cannibalize planes for spare parts, prediction of multiple air accidents  in Russia over the next year is a no-brainer.

 

The fatal mistakes have been made by Putin. He re-energised a moribund NATO, you think he wanted Sweden and Finland joining up? Nations who were buying Russian military equipment are seeing how those weapons are being chewed up on the battlefield. His army is in a meat grinder worse than Afghanistan. He is now at the mercy of the Chinese and Indians, who will set their own prices when they buy his oil and gas, assuming he can find anyone to ship it with no marine insurance. Pipelines will take 5-10 years to build.

 

As for the proposition a country running eleventh in GDP is better off than the world's two biggest economies - the US and EU - I've never heard anything so patently absurd.

Rats! The Russians will win this war. Ratio 1:10. No magic, just mathematics.

[swissie]

On 7/17/2022 at 8:51 PM, Sparktrader said:

Nickel has high use. Down lately.

All industrial metals down. The early indicator "Dr. "Copper" signals: Recession coming. And this with extremely low copper stocks in approved warehouses.

[The Hammer2021]

On 7/12/2022 at 2:17 AM, swissie said:

Who would have ever thought that Mr. Putin would ever decide over the economical future of Europe (short to mid-term). The combination of no gas from Russia with a resurgence of COVID can induce a apocalyptical downward spiral in Europe come fall/winter.

It's frightening. It's not what western politicians say, it's what "Vladimir" will do that will be the deciding factor.  
In such a situation, to be short the DAX would be a good place to be.

He'll probably die in ignominy,  unloved- that's what he'll do.

 

[Lacessit]

5 hours ago, swissie said:

Rats! The Russians will win this war. Ratio 1:10. No magic, just mathematics.

As usual, I post facts, you post opinions.