12 hours ago, malathione said:

If you just realized that, you're way behind the curve.

most of retail investors have this psychology 

"oh my god the nasdaq is down 30-40% I should sell"

then the nasdaq goes back up and they think

"wow the nasdaq is up 80% now, I should buy it"

 

and thats why retail investors usually don't make money 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2022/06/23/how-long-might-the-bear-market-last/

5 minutes ago, dj230 said:

most of retail investors have this psychology 

"oh my god the nasdaq is down 30-40% I should sell"

then the nasdaq goes back up and they think

"wow the nasdaq is up 80% now, I should buy it"

 

and thats why retail investors usually don't make money 

They take advice from brokers. Brokers say buy near the top and sell near the low.

 

When BHP was $54 brokers said buy. One predicted $100 in 2 years, another more. Now $37. It might hit 100 in 2 years but could hit 30 soon.

 

When bhp was $14 in 2016 i saw many brokers saying sell. Said it would hit $8. $14 was the low.

 

They are like sheep.

 

 

Put a 2 year moving avg on stocks. Std dev Bands at 10%, 25%, 33%.

 

If a stock is -33% by definition its cheap. At 33% its expensive.

 

Then look at roe, net profit margin etc.

 

 

5 hours ago, jerrymahoney said:

I don't have one. I pay someone to have one for me.

i have done very well with that approach... 

An off topic rant has been removed

Dollar at parity to the Euro.     Impossible, America is doomed, right?   How is this possible?  The Fed is a ponzi, according to many posters!!!!   How, How, HOW???

 

Bitcoin, zero.  Gold, zero.    Dow Jones, up and up soon.   Rocky ride for some, big money for others.  

 

Baht, zero.   sorry.   or not sorry.

 

This isn't even a real bear market.  It's nothing.    

 

1929 was the end.   the end of capitalism.  really!!!  Or maybe it was the 30's or 40's or 50's..

 

I can't count all the doom and gloom that has been foretold for the last 10000000 years as America continues to dominate the globe.    Not happy about it?   Go to your country and create the next Google!!!!!   

Life goes from zero to zero. We all dust.

3 hours ago, dj230 said:

most of retail investors have this psychology 

"oh my god the nasdaq is down 30-40% I should sell"

then the nasdaq goes back up and they think

"wow the nasdaq is up 80% now, I should buy it"

 

and thats why retail investors usually don't make money 

guilty as charged yer honour ????????????

11 minutes ago, Sparktrader said:

Life goes from zero to zero. We all dust.

that's deep bro ????

2 minutes ago, Lemsta69 said:

guilty as charged yer honour ????????????

Same as bitcoin. Mugs buying at 55k. 

13 minutes ago, Sparktrader said:

Same as bitcoin. Mugs buying at 55k. 

ser, I bought some BTC at USD 8.9k but I was too dumb to sell it at ATH and make a stonking great profit. opps! maybe I'll get it right next time ????

4 hours ago, talahtnut said:

Western powers sanctioned Russia to

deliberately destroy Western economies.

Putin is merely protecting Russian interests.

Western legacy media is full of 'pork pies'.

Destination 2030 I believe.

you seem to have the right idea .  of course we (you and me) have to say these are just

conspiracy theories so that we are not sent to Sighberia.  

Something about the 2030 number ...hmmmm....  dreampt up in some batcave in Klausmania .

That's next to Tasmania.   Or maybe Jabmania.  

Kinda weird that many of these "crazy"  theories bear some semblance to reality.   NOPE !  disinformation !   Don't even dare to THINK   about it !  OK...  just kidding

Rooster asked me where i've been hiding .   Could be i will be sent there again.  Its just humor guys.   Everything is great !    mask up.   mask down.      Peace

nice shakeout this morning in the us equity market, shaking out retail while institutions scoop up shares

It says (Rotate device for full chart view) I picked up and rotated my PC and it still looks like this:

 

21 hours ago, Sparktrader said:

Currencies drive markets

many many many things drive markets... there is a buggy whip company that went down years ago through lack of demand... 

3 hours ago, jerrymahoney said:

It says (Rotate device for full chart view) I picked up and rotated my PC and it still looks like this:

 

not sure what it said before, but now it's like a rainbow... happy days are here again.

On 7/12/2022 at 2:34 AM, PeachCH said:

It's the European's own mistake. Before you decide on sanctions, think, if they will work or not. Obviously not. A shot in the own foot. Other countries like India, buy cheap oil and sell it expensive to Europe. Greece ???????? ship owners have all smiling faces. 

Yes, implementing sanctions, without considering "what counter measures" Mr. Putin has at his disposal was a fatal mistake in the first place. The cost of those "sanctions" are already higher for the "West" than for Russia.

 

Our western polit-clowns should not sit down for a game of chess with any Russian leaders. Russians are excellent chess players. They can think fife moves ahead. Something our polit-clowns simply can't do.

Sometimes it is helpful to take a look at industrial metals. While stocks are trying to stage a rally, industrial metals send a clear message: Recession coming!

But, as I said earlier, it's the honorable Mr. Putin that will decide what the economical faith of Europe will be (short to mid-term).

On 7/12/2022 at 1:18 PM, Sparktrader said:

Put a 2 year moving avg on stocks. Std dev Bands at 10%, 25%, 33%.

 

If a stock is -33% by definition its cheap. At 33% its expensive.

 

Then look at roe, net profit margin etc.

 

 

Makes perfect sense. A good overall approach. Works best as a long term strategy. I would recommend it to my grandchildren (if I had any).

 

But, most posters here are more or less "old geezers". That makes certain "long term strategies" less practical for obvious reasons.

 

What remains? Start frantic day trading and lose your money within 1 year. OR: Sell your Thai Family into slavery in Saudi Arabia. I was told, that the yield is somewhat higher than the yield of US Treasury Bonds.????

20 hours ago, rumak said:

you seem to have the right idea .  of course we (you and me) have to say these are just

conspiracy theories so that we are not sent to Sighberia.  

Something about the 2030 number ...hmmmm....  dreampt up in some batcave in Klausmania .

That's next to Tasmania.   Or maybe Jabmania.  

Kinda weird that many of these "crazy"  theories bear some semblance to reality.   NOPE !  disinformation !   Don't even dare to THINK   about it !  OK...  just kidding

Rooster asked me where i've been hiding .   Could be i will be sent there again.  Its just humor guys.   Everything is great !    mask up.   mask down.      Peace

Yeah, been to sighberia too, its actually quite nice.

Too many money experts here, they should be taking

notice of government policies, and reading Keynes

and Lenin.

Those than control the money control the world.

On 7/12/2022 at 1:18 PM, Sparktrader said:

Put a 2 year moving avg on stocks. Std dev Bands at 10%, 25%, 33%.

 

If a stock is -33% by definition its cheap. At 33% its expensive.

 

Then look at roe, net profit margin etc.

 

 

Fantastic. Also makes sense to Farang/Thai relationships. If nearing 33% above 2 year average, you may want to look for another lady (sell your stocks).

If nearing 33% below 2 year average, you may want to start showering her with gifts, so she may stay. (buy some stocks).

It's all "same same", if you have time enough to implement this universal blissful strategy.

If that does not work, we are back to basics: "Life goes from zero to zero. We all dust".

                                                                                             William Shakespeare, alias Sparktrader. ????

1 hour ago, swissie said:

Makes perfect sense. A good overall approach. Works best as a long term strategy. I would recommend it to my grandchildren (if I had any).

 

But, most posters here are more or less "old geezers". That makes certain "long term strategies" less practical for obvious reasons.

 

What remains? Start frantic day trading and lose your money within 1 year. OR: Sell your Thai Family into slavery in Saudi Arabia. I was told, that the yield is somewhat higher than the yield of US Treasury Bonds.????

In 2 to 3 years you can double your money after a sell off.

 

 

Us inflation 9.1%

Mkt has to go down

Gold down

 

Switch to cash

Gold down 20

Dow futures down 160

2 hours ago, Sparktrader said:

Us inflation 9.1%

Mkt has to go down

Gold down

 

Switch to cash

So buy in November, switch to cash now, when to re-enter? At the top? Probably the worse time to exit the market now if you're already in it after going down 20-40% and finding some support in many stocks where valuations are near book, if you're in cash you can be patient to enter though.

Edited July 14, 20223 yr by dj230

11 minutes ago, dj230 said:

So buy in November, switch to cash now, when to re-enter? At the top? Probably the worse time to exit the market now if you're already in it after going down 20-40% and finding some support in many stocks where valuations are near book, if you're in cash you can be patient to enter though.

Depends on individual stocks

21 hours ago, swissie said:

Yes, implementing sanctions, without considering "what counter measures" Mr. Putin has at his disposal was a fatal mistake in the first place. The cost of those "sanctions" are already higher for the "West" than for Russia.

 

 

The last time I looked, inflation in Russia is 17%. GDP is predicted by Russia's own apparatchiks to shrink by 10%. The Russian economy will be hit for the next ten years, and their manufacturing and mining capabilities are degrading month by month. The aircraft industry will be forced to cannibalize planes for spare parts, prediction of multiple air accidents  in Russia over the next year is a no-brainer.

 

The fatal mistakes have been made by Putin. He re-energised a moribund NATO, you think he wanted Sweden and Finland joining up? Nations who were buying Russian military equipment are seeing how those weapons are being chewed up on the battlefield. His army is in a meat grinder worse than Afghanistan. He is now at the mercy of the Chinese and Indians, who will set their own prices when they buy his oil and gas, assuming he can find anyone to ship it with no marine insurance. Pipelines will take 5-10 years to build.

 

As for the proposition a country running eleventh in GDP is better off than the world's two biggest economies - the US and EU - I've never heard anything so patently absurd.

Futures off 450