Exports Hit Record High In May

[Jai Dee]

Exports hit record high in May

Thailand’s exports in May enjoyed a new record growth of 20.9 per cent with a total value of more than US$13 billion despite somewhat baht volatility, according to the Commerce Ministry.

Commerce Minister Krirkkrai Jirapaet revealed the exports in May totaled $13.049 billion, up 20.9 per cent from the same month the year before, which is considered a record high.

It brought up the exports in the first five months of this year to $58.75 billion, up 18.8 per cent from the same period last year.

Exports of products in the agricultural, industrial, and processed food sectors had increased in volume in all markets around the world.

He said imports in May totaled $12.25 billion baht, a rise of 6.7 per cent, led by the shipment of capital, raw materials, instant and consumer products.

It brought up the imports in the first five months of the year to $53.42 billion, up 4.4 per cent from the corresponding period the year before.

The trade balance was in surplus of $802 million in May and $5.33 billion in the first five months compared with a deficit of $1.75 billion in the same period last year.

Mr. Krirkkrai said the overall exports had grown continuously since late last year.

The Export Promotion Department had discussed with any exporters in all industries the export outlook.

They were confident the exports this year would expand 12.5 per cent to $140 billion as earlier expected.

Although the baht would be somewhat volatile, the department believed the country’s export competitiveness remains high.

He projected Thailand would enjoy a trade surplus of no less than $8-9 billion this year unless there were untoward incidents, oil price volatility, and global economic fluctuations.

The ministry also forecast the inflation rate for this year would stay at 2-2.5 per cent.

Source: TNA - 21 June 2007

[cclub75]

Exports hit record high in May

Thailand’s exports in May enjoyed a new record growth of 20.9 per cent with a total value of more than US$13 billion despite somewhat baht volatility, according to the Commerce Ministry.

No. Monthly record was in march (13.10 billions USD)

No. +20.9 % it's y-o-y.

No, exports in USD have reached a plateau since Q3 of 2006. And are declining in THB....

To see it, you need to look at a graph per quarters...

;-)

http://thaicrisis.files.wordpress.com/2007...qexportthai.jpg

It will be hard for the thai economy to do better on S2 I think. However, the minister will be able to keep his "+12%" compare to 2006.

[bendix]

Hang on. Hang on.

How does this square with the much more popular TV notion that the vast amounts of money ploughed into Thailand by Johnny Visarunner being lost as a result of tougher visa laws (and heading over to Cambodia *ahem*) are causing massive economic catastrophes to the Kingdom's economy?

I'm confused.

[Chang_paarp]

Hang on. Hang on.

How does this square with the much more popular TV notion that the vast amounts of money ploughed into Thailand by Johnny Visarunner being lost as a result of tougher visa laws (and heading over to Cambodia *ahem*) are causing massive economic catastrophes to the Kingdom's economy?

I'm confused.

I think the problem is Johnny Visarunner over estimates his value to the economy. The best figures I could find using TAT's numbers for tourist value showed that tourism contributed about 10-15% to the economy. This was based on TAT numbers (value of tourism) and numbers given out by some other depts (to guestimate the GDP), so the source is, at best, apocriphal.

In spite of the thought of those who spend their time in the evening entertainment venues, Thailand does have some industry and economic sectors that are not related to beer and buffaloes.

[samran]

Hang on. Hang on.

How does this square with the much more popular TV notion that the vast amounts of money ploughed into Thailand by Johnny Visarunner being lost as a result of tougher visa laws (and heading over to Cambodia *ahem*) are causing massive economic catastrophes to the Kingdom's economy?

I'm confused.

I think the problem is Johnny Visarunner over estimates his value to the economy. The best figures I could find using TAT's numbers for tourist value showed that tourism contributed about 10-15% to the economy. This was based on TAT numbers (value of tourism) and numbers given out by some other depts (to guestimate the GDP), so the source is, at best, apocriphal.

In spite of the thought of those who spend their time in the evening entertainment venues, Thailand does have some industry and economic sectors that are not related to beer and buffaloes.

Given that all exports contribute roughly 15% to GDP, and that tourism for the purposes of national accounting, is also an export, then TAT's numbers don't make sense. Unless Thailand exports nothing else at all, which it doesn't.

[xbusman]

Thailands exports account for somewhere around 60% of GDP.

Tourism is loosely estimated at around 7 to 10% of GDP. I do not know if that accounts for follow on effects of tourism or just the direct services involved. In other words, is it just air tickets, hotels, restaurants, and tours or does it also include what is purchased from retail. Do they include dive boats but not dive shops, that kind of data.

You have to go very easy with these numbers on exports increasing. Somehow, they have taken to valuing exports in US dollars which have declined dramatically over the past year. This is entirely misleading. They are factoring in a huge gain on currency which is particularly strange considering that the US market is less than half the exports. If they wanted to pick another currency, they might have well decided to use Yen but in the end, using any other currency is lunacy. Like measuring the inflation rate in the US by using Euros, it gives no viable information.

You have to measure Thai exports in Baht. Same as you have to measure Thai GDP in Baht. If we measure Thai GDP in dollars, guess what? It rose 20% since last year. Thats some pretty good growth!

The reality is that exports have stayed the same or declined in real terms while imports are shooting through the roof. As the dollar stabilizes, they have about another 9 months to play this word game until reality catches up. Then look out. A shrinking GDP can bring governments down.

[LaoPo]

The reality is that exports have stayed the same or declined in real terms while imports are shooting through the roof.

Excuse me?

As far as I know and followed the news a bit, IMPORTS are declining and not 'shooting through the roof'.

Where did you find that news ?

LaoPo

[samran]

Thailands exports account for somewhere around 60% of GDP.

No they don't.

Total exports have the value equivelent to 60% of GDP.

Total imports have the value equivelent to 45% of GDP.

So....

Net exports count for something like 15% of GDP. You take exports and minus imports to get net exports. Remember, money comes in, and some goes out. Whatever is left over, contributes to GDP. So 60-45 = 15.

85% of the Thai economy is made up domestic consumption, government spending and investment.

[soundman]

Is GDP in Thailand valued in Dollars or Baht?

While the Dollar value of exports has increased, has the actual volume of exports increased? Or more to the point a simple example, last year Thailand exported 100 apples, does the 18% increase in value mean this year Thailand exported 118 apples or 100 apples which sold for 18% more per apple due to the strenghthening of the baht?

Any answers / theories appreciated.

Cheers,

Soundman.

[samran]

Is GDP in Thailand valued in Dollars or Baht?

While the Dollar value of exports has increased, has the actual volume of exports increased? Or more to the point a simple example, last year Thailand exported 100 apples, does the 18% increase in value mean this year Thailand exported 118 apples or 100 apples which sold for 18% more per apple due to the strenghthening of the baht?

Any answers / theories appreciated.

Cheers,

Soundman.

in baht soundman

http://www.bot.or.th/bothomepage/databank/...ance/tab85e.asp

looks like the story made it into dollars for international consumption.

as I said in the previous posts, to calculate the impact of exports on GDP, as the BOT table shows, you must first take away the imports. They teach this stuff in high school.

[soundman]

in baht soundman

http://www.bot.or.th/bothomepage/databank/...ance/tab85e.asp

looks like the story made it into dollars for international consumption.

as I said in the previous posts, to calculate the impact of exports on GDP, as the BOT table shows, you must first take away the imports. They teach this stuff in high school.

Thanks for that link Samran. Interesting reading. I am up to speed with value added product, a big part of my industry.

It appears that while the value of goods exported has fallen for the last two quarters the value of the imports has fallen at a faster rate leaving a larger gap between the two.

The figures show a slowdown (recession) of domestic consumption, coupled with inflation thats not a pretty picture.

I'm not sure of what to make of the GDP figures, they show about a 7% increase between Q1 2006 & Q1 2007. Well above reported figures.

Is inflation taken into account in these reports as well?

Cheers,

Soundman.

[samran]

Link to all bank figures

the real figures are done at 1988 prices, presumably using a GDP deflator, so that you compare like for like (ie taking account inflation).

Remember, that a recession is two successive quarters of negative growth - seasonally adjusted. So even looking at the inflation adjusted figures here where it appears that mid last year things went backwards, these rates need to be seasonally adjusted, to take into account natural variations in output caused by weather (eg for crops and electricity consumption) time of year (eg holidays - people consume less cause shops are closed), invenories adjustments etc etc.

My conclusion is Thailand has a slower rate of growth than it traditionally has, but it is nowhere near recession. But the saying slow and steady wins the race is sometimes an apt description for an economy as well. Most countries don't want huge growth rates as this can cause inflationary pressures.