Just now, lujanit said:

The first paragraph says 5 million tourists.  The second paragraph says 5 million foreigners.  So which is it?  Sorry rhetorical question.  Everyone except TAT knows the answer.

Another OP running has 5.1 million tourists visiting Prachuap Khiri Kan....

 

 

On 9/16/2022 at 10:24 AM, kinyara said:

July was 1.1 million, August 1st to September 8th was 1.8 million based on the figure quoted, ( seems high to me and will likely drop in final analysis when they strip out non tourist visa arrivals ),  and we're technically in low season. I would expect the majority of those arriving long haul from Europe Nov/Dec have already booked, so along with the recovery level of 250k + each month, flight numbers, forward bookings etc they have reasonable oversight on their forecasts. 

 

2023 is where things become harder to predict to me for the reason you highlight, I think this high season might be a bit of a one off for the European market who have been away for the last 3 years before they batten down the hatches financially.

Yes, that was the holiday season in Europe.
School holidays for 2 months.
Inflation sky high in Europe and US.

Approaching winter and people are more worried how they pay their utility bills, ever rising food prices then thinking about a trip to Thailand.

On a daily basis, we can read that bakers, butchers etc are closing down because they can't afford anymore the energy bills to produce their products and aren't able to pass on the 100% increase in cost to their customers.

Keep dreaming about big figures.
The only ones I see are the "Indians" on a small budget and a few Arabs.

 

 

33 minutes ago, RafPinto said:

Yes, that was the holiday season in Europe.
School holidays for 2 months.
Inflation sky high in Europe and US.

Approaching winter and people are more worried how they pay their utility bills, ever rising food prices then thinking about a trip to Thailand.

On a daily basis, we can read that bakers, butchers etc are closing down because they can't afford anymore the energy bills to produce their products and aren't able to pass on the 100% increase in cost to their customers.

Keep dreaming about big figures.
The only ones I see are the "Indians" on a small budget and a few Arabs.

 

 

The article is talking about 10 million this year which isn't a big figure, it's less than 25% of peak and achievable given the improving numbers we've seen since re-opening. Indians have always been low season hotel fillers in recent years, Westerners come for high season and the winter months and you will see them in the coming months. The US $ is the strongest it has been against the baht since December 2006, swings and roundabouts for some.

1 minute ago, kinyara said:

The article is talking about 10 million this year which isn't a big figure, it's less than 25% of peak and achievable given the improving numbers we've seen since re-opening. Indians have always been low season hotel fillers in recent years, Westerners come for high season and the winter months and you will see them in the coming months. The US $ is the strongest it has been against the baht since December 2006, swings and roundabouts for some.

and the USD is the strongest in decades against the EUR and £

They could discover Europe instead of Thailand.

6 minutes ago, kinyara said:

The article is talking about 10 million this year which isn't a big figure, it's less than 25% of peak and achievable given the improving numbers we've seen since re-opening. Indians have always been low season hotel fillers in recent years, Westerners come for high season and the winter months and you will see them in the coming months. The US $ is the strongest it has been against the baht since December 2006, swings and roundabouts for some.

Sister in Indio, California, just told me the bill for power this month for their house was over $800 USD, nearly doubled from May's bill due to price increases and the heat.  She is afraid what the winter will bring.  They have decided to go to the cabin near Yosemite for the Christmas break.  They normally rent it out but with current costs for electricity and propane, (they just filled the 200 gallon propane tank used to heat during the winter), the rental price they are asking has almost doubled per night as well and the folks who normally rent it decided to stay home.  I really do not see many coming this winter with the global prices rising even if the dollar is up a few baht.

11 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Sister in Indio, California, just told me the bill for power this month for their house was over $800 USD, nearly doubled from May's bill due to price increases and the heat.  She is afraid what the winter will bring.  They have decided to go to the cabin near Yosemite for the Christmas break.  They normally rent it out but with current costs for electricity and propane, (they just filled the 200 gallon propane tank used to heat during the winter), the rental price they are asking has almost doubled per night as well and the folks who normally rent it decided to stay home.  I really do not see many coming this winter with the global prices rising even if the dollar is up a few baht.

Economic uncertainty will definately put some off, a family with a couple of kids are naturally going to feel the impact of flight prices more than a single traveller and if they are only here for a couple of weeks they've got the winter fuel situation to deal with when they get back. However there are a lot that come to get away from winter and I can see their domestic fuel hikes as being more of an incentive to come here and avoid the full impact. I'll be interested to see how the figures eventually come out for the big Western markets like US, UK and Germany for Nov-March compared to 2019.

I wonder how many foreigners are in Thailand and still doing visa runs, and how this affects the numbers.  Note that it is about tourist entries, not an attempt to keep track of how many foreign passport holders are in the kingdom at a given time, meaning the number would drop when the foreigner exits, but would tick up when he came back in.  E.g. someone doing 30 day runs would qualify for at least 9 entries Jan-Sept.  I can't guess-timate how many are doing this, are any believable numbers of such published?

(I haven't been keeping track of the changes in visa rules in recent years.)

 

 

On 9/15/2022 at 1:18 AM, crazykopite said:

I would imagine at least 50% Malays are overnight sex tourists who then go back home to there wives

And there are at least half a million from Cambodia/ Laos that are not tourists.

On 9/15/2022 at 2:10 AM, kinyara said:

I would imagine at least 50% of Brits are 3 week sex tourists who then go back home to their lives.

Possibly , but those Brits will spend a great deal more than the 1 or 2 night Malaysians.

3 hours ago, joecoolfrog said:

Possibly , but those Brits will spend a great deal more than the 1 or 2 night Malaysians.

Not according to the government statistics from 2019. Malaysian tourism was worth $3.46 billion whereas UK tourism was worth $2.3 billion. It could well be the gap will widen this year and next due to the increased long-haul cost of travel and the general state of the UK economy.

 

The good thing for Thailand is Malaysian tourists predominantly support tourism in the southern provinces whereas UK and western tourism in general is spread around the big tourist cities elsewhere. 

3 minutes ago, kinyara said:

Not according to the government statistics from 2019. Malaysian tourism was worth $3.46 billion whereas UK tourism was worth $2.3 billion. It could well be the gap will widen this year and next due to the increased long-haul cost of travel and the general state of the UK economy.

 

The good thing for Thailand is Malaysian tourists predominantly support tourism in the southern provinces whereas UK and western tourism in general is spread around the big tourist cities elsewhere. 

Just like the Myanmar tourists in the north do when visiting Chiang Mai and Chiang Rai to buy items and take back to their villages.  My future MIL would mee the truck we sent to her monthly at the border in Mae Sot to take the cases of Mama noodles, 3in1 coffee, and food stuffs as well as cleaning and personal use items back to restock her shop.

Thai TV last night had a segment on Lao shoppers coming over to Nong Khai to buy day-to-day goods, which apparently are now cheaper in Thailand due to Laos' inflation rate of 30% in August, and similar rates in earlier months.

 

They should help the tourist numbers somewhat.

2 hours ago, Eleftheros said:

Thai TV last night had a segment on Lao shoppers coming over to Nong Khai to buy day-to-day goods, which apparently are now cheaper in Thailand due to Laos' inflation rate of 30% in August, and similar rates in earlier months.

 

They should help the tourist numbers somewhat.

But they are not really tourists, are they?

7 minutes ago, billd766 said:

But they are not really tourists, are they?

No, they're not.

 

But when did 'reality' and 'Thai government statistics' ever go together in a meaningful way?

3 hours ago, Eleftheros said:

No, they're not.

 

But when did 'reality' and 'Thai government statistics' ever go together in a meaningful way?

They never have and under this government they never will.

 

On 9/16/2022 at 5:57 PM, RafPinto said:

Yes, that was the holiday season in Europe.
School holidays for 2 months.
Inflation sky high in Europe and US.

Approaching winter and people are more worried how they pay their utility bills, ever rising food prices then thinking about a trip to Thailand.

Looking at tourism where I live in the US, it pretty much dropped off like a rock once the summer holiday season ended; hotels were around 80% before and 20% after.  Normal seasonality would be about a 50% drop.  I assume things for Thailand will be similar, with the next two months pretty slow and picking up in December.

20 hours ago, Eleftheros said:

Thai TV last night had a segment on Lao shoppers coming over to Nong Khai to buy day-to-day goods, which apparently are now cheaper in Thailand due to Laos' inflation rate of 30% in August, and similar rates in earlier months.

 

They should help the tourist numbers somewhat.

Yes, lost a great deal compared to USD in the last year..... and compared to THB too. What currency do they bring with them to spend?