IMF expects Thai economy to outperform global peers in 2023

[webfact]

 

by Paul Rujopakarn
    
BANGKOK (NNT) - International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva was recently in Thailand as a participant in APEC 2022. The IMF has disclosed its projection for Thailand’s economic growth in 2023, when Thailand’s GDP is expected to outperform global peers.

 

Prime Minister Gen. Prayut Chan-o-cha has been briefed on the IMF’s report on the forecast for Thailand’s GDP growth in 2023. The agency projects that Thai GDP will grow by 3.7% next year, which will be an improvement over this year’s 2.8% growth.

 

The IMF expects Thailand’s unemployment rate to be the lowest in the Asia-Pacific region, at 1.0%.

 

Thailand is one of only few countries the IMF expects to experience economic expansion amid a global slowdown. Said economic slowdown has been attributed to inflationary challenges and heightened living costs.

 

The IMF’s projections illustrate the significance that clear government policies have on the Thai economy’s situation. The government has been able to manage the spread of COVID-19 and keep the situation under control.

 

It also worked rapidly to revive the economy by preparing the tourism sector to be ready to accommodate tourists once the Covid situation improved.

 

This effort initially took the form of the Phuket Sandbox program and gradually culminated in the full and careful reopening of the country to travelers. Measures to attract investors, experts, and high-potential individuals to Thailand have also been implemented.

 

The IMF forecasts the economies of most APEC members are slowing down. It also says 1 in 3 economies around the world is entering a recession. World GDP is expected to expand by 2.7% in 2023, compared to 3.2% this year.

 

Source: https://thainews.prd.go.th/en/news/detail/TCATG221121163550988 

 

-- © Copyright NNT 2022-11-22

 

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[ThailandRyan]

Outperform just how exactly

35 minutes ago, webfact said:

Said economic slowdown has been attributed to inflationary challenges and heightened living costs.

Inflation and heightened cost of living are occurring here no matter this Government is saying.  Prices for all commodities and goods including fuel and electricity are up as well as rent prices going up as well.  Prices in restaurants have also been raised........Thailand may not get hit as hard as elsewhere but the peers around Asia are doing much better than Thailand is.

[soi3eddie]

1 hour ago, webfact said:

The IMF expects Thailand’s unemployment rate to be the lowest in the Asia-Pacific region, at 1.0%.

Good news on the performance forecast. Would like to know how they are measuring unemployment. Think of a number? Or more scientific?

 

Edited November 22, 2022 by soi3eddie

[Kaoboi Bebobp]

Quote

The IMF has disclosed its projection for Thailand’s economic growth in 2023, when Thailand’s GDP is expected to outperform global peers.

 

Complete BS!

The Asian Development Bank forecasts: Cambodia to grow 6.5% in 2023, Vietnam 6.7% in '23 and Malaysia by 5.1% next year. How is Thailand's 3.7% better than its peers? BTW, ADB forecasts 4.2% for Thailand in '23.

Edited November 22, 2022 by Kaoboi Bebobp
More detail

[BritScot]

Everytime I see Thailands unemployment figures I switch off as they are simply nonsense from what I've seen when I lived in Thailand.  Unemployment in Thailand must technically be above 25% if you also count the nonexistent Prostitution and young adults one sees in every village who you never see working but always have booze and cigarettes........

[hotchilli]

23 hours ago, webfact said:

The IMF has disclosed its projection for Thailand’s economic growth in 2023, when Thailand’s GDP is expected to outperform global peers.

And it will be a white Christmas.

[micmichd]

On 11/22/2022 at 3:14 PM, BritScot said:

Everytime I see Thailands unemployment figures I switch off as they are simply nonsense from what I've seen when I lived in Thailand.  Unemployment in Thailand must technically be above 25% if you also count the nonexistent Prostitution and young adults one sees in every village who you never see working but always have booze and cigarettes........

Did it ever come to your mind that informal labour is also labour? 

[BritScot]

49 minutes ago, micmichd said:

Did it ever come to your mind that informal labour is also labour? 

What has that got to do with my statement? Unless you mean prostitution is informal Labour? However, there is no prostitution in Thailand and if there were it is illegal hence criminal.......

[micmichd]

13 minutes ago, BritScot said:

What has that got to do with my statement? Unless you mean prostitution is informal Labour? However, there is no prostitution in Thailand and if there were it is illegal hence criminal.......

It has much to do with your statement, because if informal labour is counted as labour then unemployment isn't so high.

The question whether it's illegal or not is a completely other question, and I'm not about to condemn Thai females.

[BritScot]

19 minutes ago, micmichd said:

It has much to do with your statement, because if informal labour is counted as labour then unemployment isn't so high.

The question whether it's illegal or not is a completely other question, and I'm not about to condemn Thai females.

Never would as there is not many options for women who are left with a child/children: earn or starve so I will never ever decry them. My personal experience of village life was a very high percentage of the village males never seemed to work but not as many women didn't work. I would have put the figure well above 30 percent closer to 40. Just my experience (I also never worked or my wife).

[billd766]

46 minutes ago, micmichd said:

It has much to do with your statement, because if informal labour is counted as labour then unemployment isn't so high.

The question whether it's illegal or not is a completely other question, and I'm not about to condemn Thai females.

I am a bit confused. I always thought that formal labour is having a full time job for 5/6/7 days a week and a salary at the end of it. Informal labour is day labour hire, part time work, cash in hand but not necessarily work tomorrow.

 

There is more work available in the planting and reaping times and less in the growing times.

[micmichd]

16 minutes ago, billd766 said:

I am a bit confused. I always thought that formal labour is having a full time job for 5/6/7 days a week and a salary at the end of it. Informal labour is day labour hire, part time work, cash in hand but not necessarily work tomorrow.

 

There is more work available in the planting and reaping times and less in the growing times.

You're right, exactly that is the difference between formal and informal labour. 

[Onerak]

1 hour ago, micmichd said:

It has much to do with your statement, because if informal labour is counted as labour then unemployment isn't so high.

The question whether it's illegal or not is a completely other question, and I'm not about to condemn Thai females.

There is no prostitution in Thailand just like there are no brothels in Thailand. All brothels are bars and prostitutes are future brides of desperate old people rejected by females of their home country and want so desperately a "wife visa" for their survival in the land of smile. 

[Lucky Bones]

"Global peers".

Couldn't be too many of them in the world.

Maybe in the universe with Thailand being central?qa????????

[BE88]

BS

[3NUMBAS]

foreign reserves must have fallen over 2 years of covid and lack of tourists

 

 

[nigelforbes]

14 minutes ago, 3NUMBAS said:

foreign reserves must have fallen over 2 years of covid and lack of tourists

 

 

USD 251 bill at end Jun at an exchange rate of 35,

USD 229 bill at end Oct but at an exchange rate of 38.

BUT

USD 286 bill in December 2020 at an ex rate of 30.

 

I'd say they were broadly flat but I haven't done the calculation. November numbers should be available soon.

 

https://www.bot.or.th/App/BTWS_STAT/statistics/ReportPage.aspx?reportID=80&language=eng

 

EDIT: I did the calc., the reserves were broadly flat.

 

 

Edited November 30, 2022 by nigelforbes

[ThailandRyan]

10 minutes ago, 3NUMBAS said:

foreign reserves must have fallen over 2 years of covid and lack of tourists

 

 

But the billions of tourists coming so far this year have refilled the coffers apparently, I mean how else can we have such a glorious BS story....

[realfunster]

Note to all for future reference : take anything from NNT with an extremely large pinch of salt, it is just a government propaganda mouthpiece. In this case trying to milk some positive spin from the APEC conference, including the much coveted foreign approval from the IMF MD.

 

Note the obsequious nature of the commentary regarding government policy contribution to this rebound.

 

Of course, the story doesn’t mention that the rebound (already contradicted by NNT on their own website) is mostly due to the low baseline of a Thai economy that, due to government policy, underperformed global and regional peers during the 2020-2022 period.

[mommysboy]

Sounds like someone got his head stuck up you know where, and then fell down a rabbit hole.

 

Absolute BS!

[still kicking]

On 11/22/2022 at 9:23 AM, soi3eddie said:

Good news on the performance forecast. Would like to know how they are measuring unemployment. Think of a number? Or more scientific?

 

Yes, how do they work out the unemployment rate if you are not employed do you register or if you sell a bunch of bananas is classed as employed?

[soi3eddie]

26 minutes ago, still kicking said:

Yes, how do they work out the unemployment rate if you are not employed do you register or if you sell a bunch of bananas is classed as employed?

This is what I would like to know. Is it claims for unemployment benefit (if there is such a thing in Thailand) or numbers of working age people not employed and paying social security or taxes? Given that so many people fall under the radar of the tax authorities here, how can an accurate unemployment figure be derived? Anyone know?