Baht Rises To Strongest Level In Decade

[ChangMaiSausage]

It's killing earning the $ but having to send money back to the UK and Thailand what the <deleted> to do

[DFCarlson]

33.67 baht/dollar today on the Bangkok Bank site.

http://www.bangkokbank.com/Bangkok+Bank/Pe...tes/default.htm

[Lithobid]

I know for you folks on retirement visas or marriage, you have to show some sort of income per month, I think its 60,000BHT or near that,

I just bought a car, and when I did that I goto the bank, and have them swipe my visa credit card, at TMB. Then they give me the cash or a cashiers check (safer) and I get a rate of about 34.7 to the U.S. dollar.

I don't know if that helps you, but it's an instant way to get money into the country, and then I DHL visa a check. Seem's practical.

I also get onshore rates 34.5-7 with my Debit/check card from my bank in america. Any ATM.

[Jai Dee]

DPM says economic restructuring can devalue THB

Deputy Prime Minister and Industry Kosit Panpiemras believes the economic restructuring will draw in more investments and will devalue the Thai baht.

On the continuous appreciation of the Thai baht, Mr. Kosit sees that the Thai economic structure will have to be adjusted to attract more investments, adding that the restructuring can depreciate the Thai currency. He says the government is trying to help the business operators in fine-tuning their business structures so they can adapt to the changes.

Mr. Kosit says further that he is worried about the small-time investors who have invested in the stock market of Thailand at the moment as it is currently peaking. He warns them to consider the external factors before making any investment decision.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 05 July 2007

[midas]

DPM says economic restructuring can devalue THB

Mr. Kosit says further that he is worried about the small-time investors who have invested in the stock market of Thailand at the moment as it is currently peaking. He warns them to consider the external factors before making any investment decision.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 05 July 2007

Are the Thai's doing the same as the Chinese and betting the farm in this current rally

or is it foreign " retail " investors he is talking about ?

[LaoPo]

DPM says economic restructuring can devalue THB

Mr. Kosit says further that he is worried about the small-time investors who have invested in the stock market of Thailand at the moment as it is currently peaking. He warns them to consider the external factors before making any investment decision.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 05 July 2007

Are the Thai's doing the same as the Chinese and betting the farm in this current rally

or is it foreign " retail " investors he is talking about ?

I think so, although I have no insight in numbers of private Thai investors.

But I suspect that the majority inflow of capital, invested in the Thai stock market is [now] mainly from outside Thailand.

The Thai stock market was under-valued.

3 years ago the Index was around 600.

1 year ago the Index was still around 600.

Now it's around 825.

I would have to look into the average Stocks P/E's in Thailand, maybe someone else knows more about that than I do?

LaoPo

[Old Man River]

DPM says economic restructuring can devalue THB

Mr. Kosit says further that he is worried about the small-time investors who have invested in the stock market of Thailand at the moment as it is currently peaking. He warns them to consider the external factors before making any investment decision.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 05 July 2007

Are the Thai's doing the same as the Chinese and betting the farm in this current rally

or is it foreign " retail " investors he is talking about ?

For many years foreign investors have come into the SET and bid the market up. Thai investors try to time it right, riding the wave up and then getting out before the big guys take profit. This isn't, of course, an exact science and smaller investors have got hurt in the past. Kosit is correctly warning them of the pitfalls of this strategy, but they have never listened before so why start now.

[LaoPo]

Are the Thai's doing the same as the Chinese and betting the farm in this current rally

or is it foreign " retail " investors he is talking about ?

I'm not sure if the Thai (private investors) are betting the same as the Chinese, but I doubt it.

The numbers of Chinese, investing on the stock markets is about 7,5 % o the total population of 1.3 Billion. In itself that's not so much but still a staggering number of more than 100 million investors; of course mainly small time investors as the majority are non-experienced traders but merely 'followers' of the herd.

BUT, just 5% of the total savings in China is invested in the stock markets. And savings are HUGE...amongst the highest savers, worldwide; %-wise.

The other side of the coin is, that the TOTAL turnover on the Chinese stock markets is, for 60%, created by private investors; the rest is done by Institutions, Banks, etc.

That, also, explains the overheated stock markets in China; followers of the herd.

As a comparison: that's just 5% in the USA (or, 15 Million people) the remaining 95% [investments on the stock markets] is created by Institutions, Banks, etc.

But, that's also understandable since the US are the worst savers in the world and the biggest spenders at the same time; so, people who don't have savings can hardly spend their money on the stock markets; that's why the difference in number-% between China and the US is so huge.

Now, if that would be the same % in Thailand (65 Million people) there would be around 5 Million people in Thailand, investing in the stock market, and that number sounds unrealistic to me.

I doubt very much that rural people in LOS invest much in the stock market so that would leave urban people in Thailand, investing on the stock market.

Considering that Bangkok has some 10 million (?) people and there aren't that many other larger urban cities in Thailand, the 7,8 % (and thus the number of some 5 Million Thai investors) is unrealistic I think.

But if we would compare it with the US (some 5% private investors) that would leave it to 3,25 Million Thai investors.

Would THAT be realistic ?...

Hmmmm...I don't know but doubt it.

LaoPo

[Jai Dee]

Thai baht breaks the Bt34-barrier

Thai Baht rises further on Thursday as it breaks the barrier of Bt34.00 a dollar. At around 3:30 pm, Thai baht was traded at Bt33.98 to Bt34.00 against the greenback. Earlier, the BOT Governor urges exporters not to be panick.

Earlier, the Bank of Thailand's Governor Tarisa Watanagase urged the exporters not to be panic by the rise of the baht, which broke the Bt34-barrier on Thursday. She attributed the rise partly to the foreign inflows to the Stock Exchange of Thailand, adding that the inflows could be decelerating soon.

Nonetheless, she urged the importers to take advantage from the baht rise by importing the machinery to expand their businesses at the moment.

On the Federation of Thai Industries' request for the central bank to curb the rise of the baht, Tarisa said that the central bank had already taken steps in curbing the baht rise.

Usara Wilaipich, senior economist at Standard Chartered Bank (Thai), commented that the appreciation of baht would happen in short term as there were capital inflows to the Thai stock market. While, foreign investors have the confidence that the economy would recover after the new election.

"Baht currency this year is expected to trade at the average of Bt35 against the US dollar," she forecasted, adding that the baht next year tends to weaken due mainly to the economic upturn driven by domestic consumption and investments.

Usara also forecasts the Thai GDP growth will be 3.8 per cent this year and 4.7 to 5.5 per cent for next year.

Source: The Nation - 05 July 2007

[LaoPo]

DPM says economic restructuring can devalue THB

Deputy Prime Minister and Industry Kosit Panpiemras believes the economic restructuring will draw in more investments and will devalue the Thai baht.

On the continuous appreciation of the Thai baht, Mr. Kosit sees that the Thai economic structure will have to be adjusted to attract more investments, adding that the restructuring can depreciate the Thai currency. He says the government is trying to help the business operators in fine-tuning their business structures so they can adapt to the changes.

Mr. Kosit says further that he is worried about the small-time investors who have invested in the stock market of Thailand at the moment as it is currently peaking. He warns them to consider the external factors before making any investment decision.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 05 July 2007

1. Can someone enlighten me about the so called 'Economic Restructuring' ? and what it means ? and HOW will it Devalue the Thai Baht (since the BOT says they will not intervene) ???

2. "The government is trying to help the business operators in fine-tuning their business structures........" How do they do that ? I'm most interested.

Sorry: edit: I just saw the message came from the 'Public Relations Department'; that explains the message

sigh: TIT

LaoPo

Edited July 5, 2007 by LaoPo

[chinthee]

DPM says economic restructuring can devalue THB

Deputy Prime Minister and Industry Kosit Panpiemras believes the economic restructuring will draw in more investments and will devalue the Thai baht.

On the continuous appreciation of the Thai baht, Mr. Kosit sees that the Thai economic structure will have to be adjusted to attract more investments, adding that the restructuring can depreciate the Thai currency. He says the government is trying to help the business operators in fine-tuning their business structures so they can adapt to the changes.

Mr. Kosit says further that he is worried about the small-time investors who have invested in the stock market of Thailand at the moment as it is currently peaking. He warns them to consider the external factors before making any investment decision.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 05 July 2007

1. Can someone enlighten me about the so called 'Economic Restructuring' ? and what it means ?

2. "The government is trying to help the business operators in fine-tuning their business structures........" How do they do that ? I'm most interested.

Sorry: edit: I just saw the message came from the 'Public Relations Department'; that explains the message

LaoPo

Yup, I just saw several Boeing 747 loads of pinstriped MBAs wearing name tags "business fine tuners" arriving at the airport so can attest this is true. Yeah, love to hear what economic restructuring means.

Edited July 5, 2007 by chinthee

[tijnebijn]

So if I have to believe Tarisa , better I should wait to transfer some euro cash to have a better rate .

Or am I wrong ?

[wileycoyote]

So if I have to believe Tarisa , better I should wait to transfer some euro cash to have a better rate .

Or am I wrong ?

Surely economic restructuring will not lead to tying the rate to another currency ?

Wiley Coyote

[Guest madcow]

Yes, can someone PLEASE explain why on the Foreign Exchange Market the Baht is trading at 31.7 to the US Dollar??

That is the rate that credit cards use. For instance, even though this article says the rate is 34, if I charge something on my US credit card, it is converted at 31.7 (then, there is an additional 3% conversion charge). I believe the same happens if I withdraw money from my US account at an ATM here.

It's freaking killing me!

Currency traders outside Thailand (banks, cc companies, oanda, et al) are generally much more greedy than those in Thailand. Don't use your out of country credit card in Thailand if you can avoid it. You'll get the crappy offshore exchange rate, as well as a fee from the cc company for the conversion of your money at the crappy rate. And always direct foreign banks to send dollars or whatever to Thailand, and let the banks in muang tai do the conversion. The difference are often around two baht per dollar (for me).

Re: Decline of the dollar: articles abound on the internet actually promoting this as a good idea. The economics department of Yale University is lobbying for it. Rumor has it that it's a deliberate action on the part of the Bush administration, Yale being a university that decided to give this C student a degree.

I defy any non-fabulously wealthy American to find one thing this man has done that's been in their best interest...

Yes, I agree. I, being a Landlord have observed that Bush policies have given too many people loans to buy their own homes. Thus, my rental business has suffered. The good and marginally good renters have bought and moved into their own homes leaving me with vacancies. The loser tenants are now moving up on the rental quality unit. As the losers move into higher quality units and neighborhoods, they degrade both. Yes, Bush has given too many people a shot at the American dream of owning their own homes, but at great cost to many landlords, properties, and neighborhoods. Otis

Your post remains, so I guess I'll reply. Those of you disinclined to read about things Bush related, please pass this post by. To any moderators who may be inclined to auto-delete this post, I ask the courtesy that you read it all first.

First, an observation: As a landlord who sounds as if he has multiple properties, you sound as if you could be in the "fabulously wealthy" class to which I referred...

The dollar declines relative to virtually all other currencies (all that I know of anyway) as a result of the willful actions of the Fed (led by the Bush administration). That is, it's by design. A motivating factor is to increase the value of the yuan and break the forever lowest prices of Chinese goods in the USA. A perhaps desirable goal, and it appears to be having some effect in that regard. It may be effecting other currencies negatively, however (including the Thai Baht).

Your comments regarding housing make no sense to me. The extremely low interest rates were engineered by Greenspan, leading to crazy lending practices (no interest adjustable rate loans for example), and a run on housing (the "housing bubble") that drove up the cost of housing in the same way as the Danish "Tulip" craze (housing is just another commodity in which to invest, after all). The adjustable rate mortages are triggering to higher rates now, and foreclosures are increasing drastically. There are so many that they're no longer simply foreclosing and selling the houses. Instead, they resort to auctioning hundreds of houses at a time. This impacts the US economy negatively in that the ordinary sale of houses is down, big time. Existing-home sales are down 22% in May and mortgage applications down 18%. Florida home sales are down 34%, Arizona down 38%, and California down 37%.

The junk mortgages are bundled and sold to banks and Wall street, where they are resold as much as ten times over, with (hypothetical) value multiplied ten times over as well (most assetts on Wall Street now appear to be overvalued by at least one order of magnitude). Several large lenders have folded at this point, and others have contracted to a fraction of their original sizes.

A bit more than a week ago, the stock market dropped 185 points on learning that Bear Stearns (owner of a bunch of those overvalued junk mortgage packages) was trying to raise $3.2 billion to save two hedge funds. They were only able to come up with $1.6 billion, so were only able to save one of their funds.

So, I'll give you the benefit of the doubt with regard to Bush somehow or other allowing more people to buy their own homes. I mean, if you want to credit Bush with that, then OK. By the same token, then, Bush has boosted the foreclosure rate to astronomical highs, thereby causing several large mortgage companies to belly up, in turn causing massive shockwaves in the US stock market, causing ever more economists (as well as the International Monatary Fund, The Bank of International Settlements, and the United Nations) to warn of another possible "Great Depression." Mind you, the last "Great Depression" was pretty much worldwide, so those of you inclined to gloat over the value of the British Pound (yes I'm jealous) should pay attention as well.

The value of the dollar is also down simply because the current administration prints more dollars. Dollars have no gold backing, nor anything that backs up their value. The amount dollars are worth is completely arbitrary, subject to the whims of the Federal Reserve. (The number of available dollars contracted under Clinton.)

And all of that has an effect on not only the Thai baht, but all world currencies that have traditionally been pegged to the dollar. It is why Kuwait recently allowed their currency to float for the first time. Kuwait's currency rose, of course, while the dollar lost still more value.

It should also be a matter of extreme concern to US expats. The dollar has little room in which to rise, and a great deal of room in which to fall. Were I living in Thailand, I would move as much money as possible to one or more Thai banks. Indeed, though I currently live in the USA, I have kept as much money in Thai banks as possible (I have a life there as well as in the USA). US expats might also buy Euros, and/or British Pounds. Anything but dollars.

One can hope that Japan initiates a correction in Thailand, as previous posts suggest may somehow be possible. Personally, I worry...

My apologies again to those of you who are tired of hearing about the US economy. It's a large slug of the world's total economy, however. It would be prudent to keep what happens here in mind as you choose where to keep whatever wealth you may have.

Good post , and in my opinion 100% correct I am putting my money into Thai bank accounts as fast as I can .

[LaoPo]

DPM says economic restructuring can devalue THB

Deputy Prime Minister and Industry Kosit Panpiemras believes the economic restructuring will draw in more investments and will devalue the Thai baht.

On the continuous appreciation of the Thai baht, Mr. Kosit sees that the Thai economic structure will have to be adjusted to attract more investments, adding that the restructuring can depreciate the Thai currency. He says the government is trying to help the business operators in fine-tuning their business structures so they can adapt to the changes.

Mr. Kosit says further that he is worried about the small-time investors who have invested in the stock market of Thailand at the moment as it is currently peaking. He warns them to consider the external factors before making any investment decision.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 05 July 2007

1. Can someone enlighten me about the so called 'Economic Restructuring' ? and what it means ?

2. "The government is trying to help the business operators in fine-tuning their business structures........" How do they do that ? I'm most interested.

Sorry: edit: I just saw the message came from the 'Public Relations Department'; that explains the message

LaoPo

Yup, I just saw several Boeing 747 loads of pinstriped MBAs wearing name tags "business fine tuners" arriving at the airport so can attest this is true. Yeah, love to hear what economic restructuring means.

Finally some good news ! The Business Operators better prepare a nice meal for them after such a long exhausting flight....

LaoPo

[LaoPo]

So if I have to believe Tarisa , better I should wait to transfer some euro cash to have a better rate .

Or am I wrong ?

?

Doesn't that depend on where you live Tijnebijn ?

If I would have Euros ( don't worry) and lived in LOS, I would just transfer or 'ATM' the money I needed and leave my Euro's save and sound in Euro-land....

Only spend what you need to spend in LOS.

But, that's me; the economical SEA, regional and world economical situation is too uncertain and I would rather keep Euro's in my Euro homeland than Baht in LOS...unless you are planning to live forever in LOS of course.

LaoPo

[chinthee]

I suppose this might be an interesting time to play some speculation games with the Thai Baht/USD Euro? Anybody got some smart advice before we place our bets?

[LaoPo]

Exports to grow 12.5% in 2007

Although the Thai baht continues to strengthen against the US dollar, the Commerce Ministry is optimistic that Thailand's exports in 2007 will continue to grow, and are projecting not less than a 12.5 per cent expansion, a senior ministry official said Thursday.

Huge capital inflows plus the weak American dollar have pushed the Thai baht to its strongest in 10 years. At 2.15 pm in Bangkok (0715 GMT), the baht stood at Bt34.33 against the dollar on the onshore market compared to Bt34.17-34.20 late Wednesday.

Mr. Rachane said the ministry is encouraging the public to consume more shrimp, rice, cassava, and other local produce to reduce the impact from the strong baht.

Isn't that sweet of Mr. Rachane ?

(TNA)

excerpts from BKK Post 'Breaking News'

LaoPo

Chinthee:

"I suppose this might be an interesting time to play some speculation games with the Thai Baht/USD Euro? Anybody got some smart advice before we place our bets?"

Ouch...!

I'm not an expert in Currencies Forex trading; too slippery ice for me. Quite specialized and difficult/risky business.

But there might be some qualified people in that kind of business on TV-board; I don't know.

Dr. Naam comes to mind....?

Dr. Naaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaam, are you there?

LaoPo

[RedQualia]

I suppose this might be an interesting time to play some speculation games with the Thai Baht/USD Euro? Anybody got some smart advice before we place our bets?

If and when you think the dollar will go up, switch from baht to dollars. Maybe in a year and a half, if the presidency in the USA changes.

Met a guy in Lankawi not so long ago who was betting the farm on a rise in the Iraqi Dinar. I looked into it briefly, but ultimately lacked the testicular fortitude to put any money there. It's difficult to imagine that the Dinar has anywhere to go but up. But how long before it might do that? I can also imagine the currency of Iraq simply being changed to something else completely, thereby making Dinars worthless. Google for it if you're so inclined.

Generally, I'm not smart enough to play games with currencies. I'm also a bit older now, so less inclined to play risky games. About half of my retirement dollars are invested in real estate (housing on long term leased land) in the Chiang Mai area. Seemed a reasonably safe bet to me. Rental income for the present; no mortgages, and so the cost of purchase should be recaptured in about eight years. It saddens me greatly, but I expect Chiang Mai to become the next Bangkok. Seems well on its way to doing so. (I personally fret some about global warming, which means 1) I'm unlikely to buy anything in Phuket, Pattaya, or Bangkok, and 2) a "sudden increase" in the value of property around Chiang Mai does not sound unreasonable to me.)

For the moment, the Baht is likely to continue to stengthen as a long term trend. It seemed tremendously undervalued to me when I first began looking at it 5-6 years ago, perhaps as a result of the 1997 financial crisis in Thailand.

I wouldn't dream of telling anyone else what to do with their money. But I can say that I've elected to put a fair chunk of change into the Thai economy over the past few years, and that I will continue to do so. Given a "stable" US dollar (which we don't have, mind you), then I would expect the "fair value" of the Thai baht to be at around 25 baht to the dollar. That's where I think we're heading, anyway. (Instability in the US dollar may actually result in a Baht that is valued more highly than this, relative to the dollar alone.)

My advice to me and me alone, then, is "buy baht" and "buy Thai." Any corrective efforts are likely to be minimal, and so long term, the value of the baht will continue to rise. Again, that's my advice to me. What I honestly think after lots and lots of thinking. It has risks, of course, but seems less risky than the various stock markets at this point in time.

Think through anything you might decide to do on your own, of course. Don't go by anyone's "investment advice" on ThaiVisa!!!

Edited July 5, 2007 by RedQualia

[chinthee]

I suppose this might be an interesting time to play some speculation games with the Thai Baht/USD Euro? Anybody got some smart advice before we place our bets?

If and when you think the dollar will go up, switch from baht to dollars. Maybe in a year and a half, if the presidency in the USA changes.

Met a guy in Lankawi not so long ago who was betting the farm on a rise in the Iraqi Dinar. I looked into it briefly, but ultimately lacked the testicular fortitude to put any money there. It's difficult to imagine that the Dinar has anywhere to go but up. But how long before it might do that? I can also imagine the currency of Iraq simply being changed to something else completely, thereby making Dinars worthless. Google for it if you're so inclined.

Generally, I'm not smart enough to play games with currencies. I'm also a bit older now, so less inclined to play risky games. About half of my retirement dollars are invested in real estate (housing on long term leased land) in the Chiang Mai area. Seemed a reasonably safe bet to me. Rental income for the present; no mortgages, and so the cost of purchase should be recaptured in about eight years. It saddens me greatly, but I expect Chiang Mai to become the next Bangkok. Seems well on its way to doing so. (I personally fret some about global warming, which means 1) I'm unlikely to buy anything in Phuket, Pattaya, or Bangkok, and 2) a "sudden increase" in the value of property around Chiang Mai does not sound unreasonable to me.)

For the moment, the Baht is likely to continue to stengthen as a long term trend. It seemed tremendously undervalued to me when I first began looking at it 5-6 years ago, perhaps as a result of the 1997 financial crisis in Thailand.

I wouldn't dream of telling anyone else what to do with their money. But I can say that I've elected to put a fair chunk of change into the Thai economy over the past few years, and that I will continue to do so. Given a "stable" US dollar (which we don't have, mind you), then I would expect the "fair value" of the Thai baht to be at around 25 baht to the dollar. That's where I think we're heading, anyway. (Instability in the US dollar may actualy result in a Baht that is valued more highly than this, relative to the dollar alone.)

My advice to me and me alone, then, is "buy baht."

Well,...the Japanese said they're not gonna play unless the Baht stabilizes at around 37.25, which is where they see the true value. And, given that they are the largest direct investors in Thailand, I put some value on their judgment. But, open to suggestions...Anybody?

[astral]

It's killing earning the $ but having to send money back to the UK and Thailand what the <deleted> to do

My situation too.

[RedQualia]

I wouldn't dream of telling anyone else what to do with their money. But I can say that I've elected to put a fair chunk of change into the Thai economy over the past few years, and that I will continue to do so. Given a "stable" US dollar (which we don't have, mind you), then I would expect the "fair value" of the Thai baht to be at around 25 baht to the dollar. That's where I think we're heading, anyway. (Instability in the US dollar may actualy result in a Baht that is valued more highly than this, relative to the dollar alone.)

My advice to me and me alone, then, is "buy baht."

Well,...the Japanese said they're not gonna play unless the Baht stabilizes at around 37.25, which is where they see the true value. And, given that they are the largest direct investors in Thailand, I put some value on their judgment. But, open to suggestions...Anybody?

Thanks for the counter argument, จริงๆ. It is a very large grain of salt with which to take my comments. That said, I'll be sticking with "my advice to me..." If the baht truly has been undervalued for ten or so years, then the world will need to deal with whatever new value obtains, 3-5 years down the road. Including Japan, Inc. It was 25 baht to the dollar before. No reason it can't be again.

Edited July 5, 2007 by RedQualia

[the gent]

There are many pundits now speculating that the postponement of a world recession by prodigious lending will soon eventually stall, precipitated by escalating energy costs et al feeding higher inflation, whereupon the US economy will drag us all into a black hole comparable to the Great Depression. To what extent would investment in a third world state such as THailand buffer one from the fallout?

The Thai economy is dependent upon exports and its domestic consumption itself hinges upon debt. Does it really represent a long term safe haven for one's pennies? The current baht increase seems to reflect speculation rather than any inherent economic strength and must therefore flatter to deceive.

I know everyone harps on about China and how its economic revolution will protect all and sundry but surely that is simply a phenomenon and no panacea for the forthcoming problems

[LaoPo]

Well,...the Japanese said they're not gonna play unless the Baht stabilizes at around 37.25, which is where they see the true value. And, given that they are the largest direct investors in Thailand, I put some value on their judgment. But, open to suggestions...Anybody?

Hmmmm..yes...that's where 'they' see it and they could be right; but the Japanese have been on the wrong side also in the past 15/20 years with their monetary policies and wrong decisions, keeping interest at virtually zero %; so who knows?

The -pretty nice- investing-problem for the Japanese (companies) is that their money is so cheap that they can't afford themselves to lose money, %-wise, if the Baht stays, or even increases, so high...

" Offshore, the baht gained 0.7 percent to 31.13.

The currency also advanced on optimism rising exports will boost the nation's current account surplus.

The baht will continue to appreciate ``just based on the fact the current account surplus will continue to improve,'' helped by fund inflows and exports, said Steve Rowles, a foreign-exchange analyst at CFC Seymour Ltd. in Hong Kong.

The currency may rise to 33.75 against the dollar by the end of this year, Rowles said.

``The market needs a correction after such a strong rally,'' said Aekpittaya Iemkongaek, an investment strategist at BFIT Securities Co. in Bangkok. "

From a report on Bloomberg - today.

note: all this talk of the government about the Nation's [wonderful] current account surplus sounds nice BUT the problem is that the poor man-in-the-street (read: poor rural people) don't see <deleted> of that same money....

It still puzzles me where that 12,5% INCREASE of Exports [and that's huge for 2007] comes from with such an expensive Baht....

Either Thai suppliers/factories are selling at lower prices and/or accepting lower profits and even losses OR clients abroad are accepting much higher prices....would you ?

LaoPo

[chinthee]

Well,...the Japanese said they're not gonna play unless the Baht stabilizes at around 37.25, which is where they see the true value. And, given that they are the largest direct investors in Thailand, I put some value on their judgment. But, open to suggestions...Anybody?

Hmmmm..yes...that's where 'they' see it and they could be right; but the Japanese have been on the wrong side also in the past 15/20 years with their monetary policies and wrong decisions, keeping interest at virtually zero %; so who knows?

The -pretty nice- investing-problem for the Japanese (companies) is that their money is so cheap that they can't afford themselves to lose money, %-wise, if the Baht stays, or even increases, so high...

" Offshore, the baht gained 0.7 percent to 31.13.

The currency also advanced on optimism rising exports will boost the nation's current account surplus.

The baht will continue to appreciate ``just based on the fact the current account surplus will continue to improve,'' helped by fund inflows and exports, said Steve Rowles, a foreign-exchange analyst at CFC Seymour Ltd. in Hong Kong.

The currency may rise to 33.75 against the dollar by the end of this year, Rowles said.

``The market needs a correction after such a strong rally,'' said Aekpittaya Iemkongaek, an investment strategist at BFIT Securities Co. in Bangkok. "

From a report on Bloomberg - today.

note: all this talk of the government about the Nation's [wonderful] current account surplus sounds nice BUT the problem is that the poor man-in-the-street (read: poor rural people) don't see <deleted> of that same money....

It still puzzles me where that 12,5% INCREASE of Exports [and that's huge for 2007] comes from with such an expensive Baht....

Either Thai suppliers/factories are selling at lower prices and/or accepting lower profits and even losses OR clients abroad are accepting much higher prices....would you ?

LaoPo

LaoPo, I have been scratching my top and bottom trying to figure out how these export figures keep going up when everyone is paying in dollar denominated currencies; well almost everyone. Japan/US and large volumes. Good mystery best left to better brains than mine.

[ray23]

12.5 % never forget this is the land of smoke and mirrors, not even sure of what I see here most of the time.

[LaoPo]

Well,...the Japanese said they're not gonna play unless the Baht stabilizes at around 37.25, which is where they see the true value. And, given that they are the largest direct investors in Thailand, I put some value on their judgment. But, open to suggestions...Anybody?

Hmmmm..yes...that's where 'they' see it and they could be right; but the Japanese have been on the wrong side also in the past 15/20 years with their monetary policies and wrong decisions, keeping interest at virtually zero %; so who knows?

The -pretty nice- investing-problem for the Japanese (companies) is that their money is so cheap that they can't afford themselves to lose money, %-wise, if the Baht stays, or even increases, so high...

" Offshore, the baht gained 0.7 percent to 31.13.

The currency also advanced on optimism rising exports will boost the nation's current account surplus.

The baht will continue to appreciate ``just based on the fact the current account surplus will continue to improve,'' helped by fund inflows and exports, said Steve Rowles, a foreign-exchange analyst at CFC Seymour Ltd. in Hong Kong.

The currency may rise to 33.75 against the dollar by the end of this year, Rowles said.

``The market needs a correction after such a strong rally,'' said Aekpittaya Iemkongaek, an investment strategist at BFIT Securities Co. in Bangkok. "

From a report on Bloomberg - today.

note: all this talk of the government about the Nation's [wonderful] current account surplus sounds nice BUT the problem is that the poor man-in-the-street (read: poor rural people) don't see <deleted> of that same money....

It still puzzles me where that 12,5% INCREASE of Exports [and that's huge for 2007] comes from with such an expensive Baht....

Either Thai suppliers/factories are selling at lower prices and/or accepting lower profits and even losses OR clients abroad are accepting much higher prices....would you ?

LaoPo

LaoPo, I have been scratching my top and bottom trying to figure out how these export figures keep going up when everyone is paying in dollar denominated currencies; well almost everyone. Japan/US and large volumes. Good mystery best left to better brains than mine.

Maybe we should call LOS...................: LOM - Land Of Mysteries; good slogan for TAT by the way.

Maybe we should register the name; are you in for that, Chinthee ?

LaoPo

[chinthee]

I'm jiggy with that. LOM = Land o Mysteries. Done.

[RedQualia]

Well,...the Japanese said they're not gonna play unless the Baht stabilizes at around 37.25, which is where they see the true value. And, given that they are the largest direct investors in Thailand, I put some value on their judgment. But, open to suggestions...Anybody?

Hmmmm..yes...that's where 'they' see it and they could be right; but the Japanese have been on the wrong side also in the past 15/20 years with their monetary policies and wrong decisions, keeping interest at virtually zero %; so who knows?

The -pretty nice- investing-problem for the Japanese (companies) is that their money is so cheap that they can't afford themselves to lose money, %-wise, if the Baht stays, or even increases, so high...

" Offshore, the baht gained 0.7 percent to 31.13.

The currency also advanced on optimism rising exports will boost the nation's current account surplus.

I feel Japan, Inc's pain. At the same time, however, the BOT has demonstrated a complete and utter lack of control over the value of the baht. I see little reason to believe that Japan, Inc. will be more effective. Which is not to say that I want the baht to keep appreciating! My US dollars are worth less and less there each day. Regardless, I continue to believe we're heading for 25 baht to the dollar, and possibly less. Would love to be proven wrong...

[LaoPo]

I'm jiggy with that. LOM = Land o Mysteries. Done.

Just opened a new topic: LOM = Land Of Mysteries - Thailand.

General Topics.

LaoPo