Deputy Minister of Commerce Sinit Lertkrai on Thursday revealed a 10-year high trade deficit after exports fell by 4.5% in January, an outcome far worse than expectations due to a lack of consumer spending power in key markets.

 

by Joseph O' Connor

Thailand finds itself still impacted by a global economic downturn which has left it too dependent on a rapid foreign tourism rebound assisted by China’s reopening this year. The reopening of the Chinese economy is already presenting challenges with higher airfares being charged by relaunching airlines and increased competition in the export market from Chinese factories.

 

The chances of Thailand entering into a technical recession in the first quarter of the year rose on Thursday when the country’s exports for January fell by 4.5%, a sharper drop than expected leaving the kingdom with a near-record trade deficit of $4.65 billion for the month. The rising economic headwinds caused by heightened inflation in its export markets now leave the kingdom precariously dependent on accelerated foreign tourism growth this year.

 

Thailand posted its largest trade deficit in ten years on Thursday when the Ministry of Commerce revealed that exports for January had contracted at a sharper-than-expected rate of 4.5%.

 

Full story: https://www.thaiexaminer.com/thai-news-foreigners/2023/03/02/economy-hit-by-10-year-high-trade-deficit-exports-slump/

 

-- © Copyright Thai Examiner 2023-03-03

 

- Cigna offers a range of visa-compliant plans that meet the minimum requirement of medical treatment, including COVID-19, up to THB 3m. For more information on all expat health insurance plans click here.

 

The most versatile and flexible rental investment and holiday home solution in Thailand - click for more information.

Whoopsie, looks like people have been thinking things are Rosser than they actually are. Thailand being dependant on tourism to bail them out is not going to work.

All comes down to the Thai baht and this administration and corruption hopefully people are waking up

3 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Whoopsie, looks like people have been thinking things are Rosser than they actually are. Thailand being dependant on tourism to bail them out is not going to work.

Never mind, the girls are working flat-out to help the GDP

"precariously dependent on accelerated foreign tourism growth this year"

no worries.... the TAT has assured us that the accelerated foreign tourism has already started

January is only one month, it's far too soon to get excited about this.

 

Edited March 2, 20233 yr by nigelforbes

3 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Whoopsie, looks like people have been thinking things are Rosser than they actually are. Thailand being dependant on tourism to bail them out is not going to work.

One whole month doth not a whole year make.

55 minutes ago, hotchilli said:

Never mind, the girls are working flat-out to help the GDP

Some of them do it standing up.

4 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Whoopsie, looks like people have been thinking things are Rosser than they actually are. Thailand being dependant on tourism to bail them out is not going to work.

Yes I thought everything was going well and the country was on the up and up!

crazy high electric prices, high Baht and stupid minimum salaries make Thailand less competitive.

1 hour ago, jacko45k said:

Yes I thought everything was going well and the country was on the up and up!

that is the official pre-election policy of the good generals

2 hours ago, nigelforbes said:

January is only one month, it's far too soon to get excited about this.

 

"heightened inflation in its export markets now leave the kingdom precariously dependent on accelerated foreign tourism growth this year."

 

People who live in those export markets are the foreign tourists, who cannot now afford to be tourists (because of inflation in the prices of "essentials") that Thailand expects to bail it out.

 

Or have I got that wrong?

 

 

Edited March 3, 20233 yr by Enoon

8 minutes ago, Enoon said:

"heightened inflation in its export markets now leave the kingdom precariously dependent on accelerated foreign tourism growth this year."

 

People who live in those export markets are the foreign tourists, who cannot now afford to be tourists (because of inflation in the prices of "essentials") that Thailand expects to bail it out.

 

Or have I got that wrong?

 

 

I think it's more about the ability and willingness of those countries to continue to import goods from Thailand, we can get tourists from many places.

Good luck promoting tourism with visibility down to to 300 meters on account of the smoke.

'Oh look, there's a Viewpoint. Let's stop and look at the view!'

2 minutes later...

'Cough!Cough! What view? Where!?'

2 hours ago, jacko45k said:

Yes I thought everything was going well and the country was on the up and up!

Me too. Reading the news here it always seems like Thailand is doing so well. Sicophant reporting and government statistics just go to show ya can't always believe wat you read. However, the baht is still doing too well.

1 hour ago, bangon04 said:

that is the official pre-election policy of the good generals

politicians....every country every politician Obama, Trump, Biden all had the best economic ever.

3 hours ago, h90 said:

crazy high electric prices, high Baht and stupid minimum salaries make Thailand less competitive.

These things are only the tip of the Iceberg facing Thai Manufacturers and Exporters.

Some of the additional things weighing upon the Exporters are the Labour Laws, Cost of actually performing in Business, and a workforce pool that is neither well Educated or Skilled compared to the Export competitors such as Vietnam

7 hours ago, webfact said:

The reopening of the Chinese economy is already presenting challenges with higher airfares being charged by relaunching airlines

The higher Air Fares are sure to play a huge part in the number of Chinese Tourists the Country can expect 

They, like everybody else Globally, are feeling the Inflationary costs of just living, and to many their Holiday will be placed in the cooler for the foreseeable future.

55 minutes ago, Pouatchee said:

Me too. Reading the news here it always seems like Thailand is doing so well. Sicophant reporting and government statistics just go to show ya can't always believe wat you read. However, the baht is still doing too well.

You can't interpret what you've read is the problem, one months numbers mean nothing.

 

Thailand and most Asia countries which have export as key component in their GDP will face slower growth from looming recession in Europe, US rate hikes and weak China rebound. So I am not surprise by the report. It's a month data and no conclusion on Thailand's economic health can be concluded. 

1 hour ago, Cake Monster said:

These things are only the tip of the Iceberg facing Thai Manufacturers and Exporters.

Some of the additional things weighing upon the Exporters are the Labour Laws, Cost of actually performing in Business, and a workforce pool that is neither well Educated or Skilled compared to the Export competitors such as Vietnam

The higher Air Fares are sure to play a huge part in the number of Chinese Tourists the Country can expect 

They, like everybody else Globally, are feeling the Inflationary costs of just living, and to many their Holiday will be placed in the cooler for the foreseeable future.

labor force.....it starts finding someone who is willing to come every day and be sober.....bureaucracy is OK in Thailand. But staff who is willing to work...

4 hours ago, h90 said:

crazy high electric prices, high Baht and stupid minimum salaries make Thailand less competitive.

Yes let the people work for 1 baht a day. 

2 hours ago, h90 said:

politicians....every country every politician Obama, Trump, Biden all had the best economic ever.

some countries still have an irritating, intrusive, self-serving free press which is not afraid to ask questions........and make fun of the government

Maybe not the most appropriate time to introduce the new tourist tax  . . . . .

2 hours ago, nigelforbes said:

You can't interpret what you've read is the problem, one months numbers mean nothing.

 

Especially when things get hidden from view and the truth of the issues never arise, not talking conspiracy here, just the real world of Thailand. Yet Reuters has a report which says what we are seeing as well.

 

https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/thai-economy-seen-growing-3-4-this-year-inflation-fall-cbank-2023-02-28/

 

"Southeast Asia's second-largest economy grew 2.6% in 2022, less than expected but is now gathering steam as tourism rebounds, helped by the return of Chinese visitors. The BOT expects 25.5 million foreign arrivals this year, compared with nearly 40 million in pre-pandemic 2019.

 

Exports, another key driver of growth, however, were seen rising just 1% this year, with a possible contraction ahead, the BOT said, blaming the global economic slowdown.

In January, the economy improved from December, helped by improved service sector activities and government stimulus measures, the BOT said in a separate statement.

 

But exports fell 3.4% in January from a year earlier and could see another year-on-year drop in February, Assistant Governor Chayawadee Chai-Anant told a news conference on Tuesday."

 

Look at the highlighted and underlined section above. If tourism stagnates then all bets are off and it appears stagnation is in the cards looking at increasing prices for air fares etc....

Edited March 3, 20233 yr by ThailandRyan

2 hours ago, bangon04 said:

some countries still have an irritating, intrusive, self-serving free press which is not afraid to ask questions........and make fun of the government

often partisan press.....
But Thailand has a lot very government critical press from both the red and the yellow side. But I think it is a small bubble of people only

8 hours ago, bangon04 said:

"precariously dependent on accelerated foreign tourism growth this year"

no worries.... the TAT has assured us that the accelerated foreign tourism has already started

TAT calculator at the ready!!!

2 hours ago, Pedrogaz said:

Yes let the people work for 1 baht a day. 

and the good people will change to the company who pays 3 Baht, and than to that which pays 4 Baht. At shortage of labor the system will self up regulate immediately. On CNC operator it is still common that someone don't come on Monday because someone offer 500 Baht more salary. While state minimum salary cause unemployment.

8 hours ago, mikebell said:

Some of them do it standing up.

And some half-way-between,,,

so I'm led to believe.

2 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Especially when things get hidden from view and the truth of the issues never arise, not talking conspiracy here, just the real world of Thailand. Yet Reuters has a report which says what we are seeing as well.

 

https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/thai-economy-seen-growing-3-4-this-year-inflation-fall-cbank-2023-02-28/

 

"Southeast Asia's second-largest economy grew 2.6% in 2022, less than expected but is now gathering steam as tourism rebounds, helped by the return of Chinese visitors. The BOT expects 25.5 million foreign arrivals this year, compared with nearly 40 million in pre-pandemic 2019.

 

Exports, another key driver of growth, however, were seen rising just 1% this year, with a possible contraction ahead, the BOT said, blaming the global economic slowdown.

In January, the economy improved from December, helped by improved service sector activities and government stimulus measures, the BOT said in a separate statement.

 

But exports fell 3.4% in January from a year earlier and could see another year-on-year drop in February, Assistant Governor Chayawadee Chai-Anant told a news conference on Tuesday."

 

Look at the highlighted and underlined section above. If tourism stagnates then all bets are off and it appears stagnation is in the cards looking at increasing prices for air fares etc....

If, if, if...............!

 

 

8 minutes ago, nigelforbes said:

If, if, if...............!

 

 

If and when are synonymous. The correction is coming.