Cannabis and the Upcoming Election

[up-country_sinclair]

How will cannabis be impacted if the polls are correct and Paetongtarn Shinawatra becomes the next PM?  

I've read that she intends to end recreational sales, but I wonder how realistic that is.

[billd766]

It is not that realistic, but neither was the badly thought out, badly worded and badly half hearted law.

 

Anutin and the BJT set it up in time for the election expecting a walkover, but they didn't do a proper job and it is backfiring on them.

 

IMHO Anutin believed that it would be an election winner, that the BJT would be the election winner and that he would be the PM.

 

If you believe the polls, Anutin and the BJT are down in the also rans.

 

This is always a problem if you surround yourself with people who always tell you what you want to hear, and especially if you believe your own hype.

[LOWERCASEGUY]

36 minutes ago, billd766 said:

If you believe the polls, Anutin and the BJT are down in the also rans.

BJT is widely expected to be the second largest political party in terms of number of seats held and a potential roadblock to any other party trying to form a government.  
 

PT will be the only larger party but they actually have a lot of problems in forming a government because of the possibility they try to being Thaksin back to Thailand.   

[marin]

18 minutes ago, LOWERCASEGUY said:

BJT is widely expected to be the second largest political party in terms of number of seats held and a potential roadblock to any other party trying to form a government.  
 

By whom? New polls show it a mid runner at best. PT and Move forward gaining momentum still.

[bamnutsak]

13 hours ago, up-country_sinclair said:

How will cannabis be impacted if the polls are correct and Paetongtarn Shinawatra becomes the next PM?  

Probably no more, or no less than if someone else "becomes" PM.

 

Cannabis isn't really in the top 10 or maybe even top 20 issues for the electorate. Only Chuwit seems to be agitated, and he's not running for anything, and everyone knows he has a personal agenda. Yes, some have answeered quesitons about cannabis, but, AFAIK, none have Cannabis re-reform in their platforms?

 

No one party will win a consensus, so they'll have to form a coalition government. I'm sure one or two 'results' have been work-shopped and whipped.

 

Obviously Cannabis (and Kratom?) could be returned to the narcotics list, and the 4,000 cannabis prisoners freed can be returned to prison, with the stroke of a pen, by the 'new' Minister of Public Health, or the PM, or the Interior Minister.

 

Some unknowns include the actual number of sitting senators, it is somewhat less than 250, maybe closer to 220, and how they might be "persuaded" to vote for a PM. And the break-out of the at-large seats (150) may be challenging to predict.

 

PTP will gain the most seats, 150 - 200, but far from the number necessary to form their own government.

 

PPP and UTN, together should garner enough seats (along with the senators) to be in the driver's seat. BJT, Dem and most of the smaller parties (~ 10-ish seats each/tops)

 

MoveForward would get the second most seats by a party.

 

BJT was, and remains a factor.

 

 

So the questions remain:

 

Will the next government immediately put cannabis back on the narcotics list, or put the current situation on hold, or revert to strictly medical only, or pass a bill. BTW, the Bill would only be the start, it will broadly define who has what responsibilities, with a massive Cannabis Control Board having the final say. Many organizations and ministries will have their hand in the control of cannabis.

[stoner]

1 minute ago, bamnutsak said:

and the 4,000 cannabis prisoners freed can be returned to prison,

the number you have reached is not in service....please check the number or try your call again....this is a recording.

 

can you imagine calling those people back and be all....ya we are gonna need you to come back to jail now. 

[bamnutsak]

1 minute ago, stoner said:

the number you have reached is not in service....please check the number or try your call again....this is a recording.

 

can you imagine calling those people back and be all....ya we are gonna need you to come back to jail now. 

I was being somewhat facetious, just pointing out one of many, many, many challenges that everyone would face were Cannabis to be re-criminalized. There would have to be some lengthy amnesty period, otherwise the Police could instantly arrest a few hundred thousand people 'holding', growing, selling, etc.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Denim]

12 hours ago, billd766 said:

This is always a problem if you surround yourself with people who always tell you what you want to hear, and especially if you believe your own hype.

Exactly right. Surround yourself with ' yes ' men and all balance and reason goes out the window. Putin is a prime example. ' I want to invade Ukraine . What do you think lads ? ' .............' Great idea boss. You're a genius '

 

For sure there will be new cannabis legislation after the election to clarify the current situation.

 

What exactly that will be is anybody's guess.

 

 

Edited May 2, 2023 by Denim

[JackGats]

I don't think the legalisation was "badly thought out". If you want to legalise any drug, do it quickly at one fell swoop. Otherwise it takes a decade like it did in the US (and like it does in Germany right now). There should be an amendment in any constitution that says the legalisation of any drug must not take longer than it took to ban it in the first place.

[h90]

22 minutes ago, bamnutsak said:

I was being somewhat facetious, just pointing out one of many, many, many challenges that everyone would face were Cannabis to be re-criminalized. There would have to be some lengthy amnesty period, otherwise the Police could instantly arrest a few hundred thousand people 'holding', growing, selling, etc.

 

 

 

 

 

 

That is easily done....you say by 2024 it is forbidden but till 2025 you don't punish, you only hand out warnings and confiscate it.
Of course it would not make sense, but the original ban never made sense as well.

[LOWERCASEGUY]

11 hours ago, marin said:

By whom? New polls show it a mid runner at best. PT and Move forward gaining momentum still.

Sorry, but let’s say that it you read other news sources that won’t get your post deleted on AseanNow you may see some different analysis.  They may say something like this:

 

The party is aiming for more than 120 MP seats at the upcoming general election on May 14 compared to the 51 seats that they won in the previous election in 2019.

One can do a little simple math and see that if BJT gets anywhere to even close to 120 seats they will be a dominant #2 party.   PT can either bring them in as an ally or they can make a strong enemy.   
 

I’m assuming the reason why they don’t get the same news coverage as PT or MF is because PT has to win by a massive landslide to form their own government (most analysts say they won’t come close to a landslide) and MF and PT are courting similar voters.  So PTs success means MFs failure and MF success costs PT seats.  

And 

 

"Bhumjaithai will likely gain the most seats among the parties in the government coalition," Wanwichit said, predicting it could win more than 70, including from rural strongholds in the lower northeast.

Wanwichit Boonprong is a political scientist at Rangsit University.  This was in Reuters.  
 

There are dozens of similar references.  I can find a reference to BJT’s expected “second largest party” in pretty much every Thai news outlet.  
 

Honestly, I don’t know why some Thai news sources go so far out of their way to only focus on PT, MF, and the Dems.  
 

Perhaps that’s the more exciting race to cover.  BJT has Buri Ram and a lot of other races already locked up and a lot of MPs that won their seats in other parties have moved over to BJT for the upcoming elections which make them easy wins for BJT.  
 

For most Thai political pundits, PT #1 and BJT #2 are a lock.  The only question is how big each party will be and whether any of the other parties pick up enough seats to become major players.   

 

Interestingly, there are several scenarios where PT doesn’t get the PM slot.  
 

There are a lot of unelected votes that are not thrilled about another Shinawatra in the PM spot and have already said they’re not voting for anybody who would bring instability.   
 

That could force PT to align with BJT to get enough votes to overcome that opposition and they may have to give up the PM spot to BJT in exchange for getting the prime ministry roles.   
 

And another scenario is BJT cobbling together enough parties to put Anutin up for the PM slot.  
 

Either way, most paths to the PM seat go through BJT after this upcoming election.  
 

This is why PPRP has already had meetings with BJT and PT keeps denying they’re talking with BJT (saying that it’s too early for that).  
 

Most political pundits picked PT to win by a landslide back in Jan but they aren’t polling as well as they would need to win by a landslide so now the Thai media is speculating at what coalitions will be forced together in order to form a government.   And BJT will be a critical party if they get anywhere close to the 70 seats pundits expect them to get and the 120 BJT is aiming for.  

[bamnutsak]

Three important questions ahead of an uncertain election

 

https://www.thaienquirer.com/49319/three-important-questions-ahead-of-an-uncertain-election/

[bamnutsak]

On 5/2/2023 at 7:28 AM, bamnutsak said:

Yes, some have answeered quesitons about cannabis

Pheu Thai PM Candidate Paetongtarn Shinawatra after giving birth to her second child.

 

Paetongtarn also said:

 

- Pheu Thai does not support the free use of marijuana

 

https://twitter.com/ThaiEnquirer/status/1653633029171195904

 

"free use" means recreational/adult use.

[roietfortress]

ok i read the thread. being that i am totally uninterested in politics, it seems we might have a better idea in two weeks, but most likely nothing will be different by the end of the year?

 

keep stocking up on seeds ????

 

#

[bamnutsak]

20 minutes ago, roietfortress said:

but most likely nothing will be different by the end of the year?

Future cloudy, ask again later.

[Pouatchee]

MFP has won

So, what now?

Will Anutin back down?

Will an alliance with the Shinawats spell doom?

 

What a cliffhanger