Draft Charter Ready For Vote

[Mid]

more of the non-existant ...........................

Ramkhamhaeng exit poll confirms draft charter passed

August 19, 2007 : Last updated 04:34 pm

An exit poll carried out by Ramkhamhaeng University found that 60 per cent of voters approved the draft constitution.

The university announced that 60.19 per cent of 17,346 voters nationwide said they voted for the draft and the remaining 39.81 voted against it.

The Nation

[Mid]

NE No Vote ....................http://202.60.199.51/en/?zone=4

Yes 56+K

No 87K

Void 2+K

@ this time .

Edited August 19, 2007 by Mid

[hammered]

I would predict the exit polls overestimate yes, which seems to be in line with the vote right now. early days though.

[Tony Clifton]

TRT suspects an election fraud is planned

Ohhh the irony...

[Mid]

I would predict the exit polls overestimate yes

since they are not supposed to exist , wonder why that would be ?????

[hammered]

Interesting vote ratios.

NE about 1.5 to 1 for no. TRT stronghold

N about 1:1 TRT stronghold

Center over 2:1 for yes used to be very strong for TRT

South 10:1 for yes TRT despised

Bangkok approaching 1.5:1 unpredictable

It looks as though if this keeps up the Center carries it for yes with TRT struggling to hold the north and underperforming in the NE

But early days I may live to regret this analysis.

[Mid]

NE has voted No and the North is the current interest ,

Bkk is not what the junta expected either .....................

edit , memo to self do not type s when you mean a

Edited August 19, 2007 by Mid

[hammered]

NE has voted No and the North is the current interest ,

Bkk is not what the junta expected either .....................

edit , memo to self do not type s when you mean a

Knowing the north it will be very hard for the Junta to get a yes even by one vote up there. If it is held close by the end I will be surprised. It was TRT heartland in 2006 the unofficial figures gave them easy wins everywhere except Tak. Then again I have always felt this vote would be a lot closer than others predict and could go either way. I may be proved wrong though.

[stumonster]

Thai PM says military charter approved

August 19, 2007

THAILAND'S army-installed Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont claimed victory in a referendum today, saying voters had approved a new constitution backed by the military.

“We consider that this constitution has been approved by the people, and by the end of August the Constitution will be submitted to the King for endorsement,” Mr Surayud said on national television.

“Overall, the turnout was more than 50 per cent. I thank the Thai people for coming out to exercise their vote,” he said.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story...93-1702,00.html

[hammered]

Thai PM says military charter approved

August 19, 2007

THAILAND'S army-installed Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont claimed victory in a referendum today, saying voters had approved a new constitution backed by the military.

“We consider that this constitution has been approved by the people, and by the end of August the Constitution will be submitted to the King for endorsement,” Mr Surayud said on national television.

“Overall, the turnout was more than 50 per cent. I thank the Thai people for coming out to exercise their vote,” he said.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story...93-1702,00.html

Sounds confident. I guess we can now listen to every side put their spin on what has happened and charge forward into the next election. Hopefully if any of the vote buyers have been caught they will be dealt with before then.

[Mid]

less than 2K in it in the North at present

[hammered]

less than 2K in it in the North at present

It is the overall vote that counts. Nobody cared when the south repeatedly rejected TRT. Similarly if the charter passes (or doesnt) local results are immaterial save as Samak mentioned as a test of party popularity. I would think TRT are watching closely to see where their strength remains. This seems to be in most of the Isaan and certain provinces in the North. It is interesting that a lot of northern provinces are going strongly one way or the other which surrises me consdiring TRTs recent strength up there and there very powerful influence and vote buying apparatus. It also seems TRT have lost support in most of the central region which they used to dominate. I think reading Bangkok is harder.

[ColPyat]

Sounds confident. I guess we can now listen to every side put their spin on what has happened and charge forward into the next election. Hopefully if any of the vote buyers have been caught they will be dealt with before then.

Lets wait and see. The most populated region in Thailand has not been fully counted yet, and so far the "No" vote leads. The north is about 50/50.

I still believe that the constitution will be accepted, but given the lack of media access, and the harassment of opponents (read Prachathai for details), this is not a victory for the government or the military.

Spin?

There are very legitimate questions of how many of the "yes" voters voted for the constitution because they were convinced by government propaganda that this was the fastest way to get the military out of the scene.

But lets wait and see. Proclaiming a winner is a bit early. Several factors are not yet clear.

[hammered]

Sounds confident. I guess we can now listen to every side put their spin on what has happened and charge forward into the next election. Hopefully if any of the vote buyers have been caught they will be dealt with before then.

Lets wait and see. The most populated region in Thailand has not been fully counted yet, and so far the "No" vote leads. The north is about 50/50.

I still believe that the constitution will be accepted, but given the lack of media access, and the harassment of opponents (read Prachathai for details), this is not a victory for the government or the military.

Spin?

There are very legitimate questions of how many of the "yes" voters voted for the constitution because they were convinced by government propaganda that this was the fastest way to get the military out of the scene.

But lets wait and see. Proclaiming a winner is a bit early. Several factors are not yet clear.

True it is early and shades of Bush in Florida and all that, but come on us Thai political junkies are going to carry on with our amateur attempts at knowing everything;)

I dont think Suraryud would claim it unless he was sure. That could look quite bad for him if the result flips even though that would justify my earlier amateur predictions

Peace

[Mid]

No leads in the North

[hammered]

To be honest after this referendum there may be a chance for a truce politically. The generals get the charter they want. No doubt it willbe ammended later but maybe not for quite some time. They retreat into the background. Then the politicos get back into the limelight. We are now talking of a bunch of old men who have worked with and back stabbed each other repeatedly before so they may just decide enough is enough lets get on with the business we do best. Only today Samak was going on about not all TRT hated the Junta. Little comments like that are not said for nothing. Elections and deal time and a political truce may be on the cards. Maybe everyone gets somethign but nobvody gets everything. It is often said that in Thailand it is important that nobody loses for a deal to be done. In fact more important that nobody loses than somebody wins.

[Mid]

and I contend that the country is split in two .

edit , as Yes noses ahead in the North

Edited August 19, 2007 by Mid

[ColPyat]

and I contend that the country is split in two .

Yes.

The main objective of the military for staging the coup - healing the rifts in the country - has clearly not been reached.

[highdiver]

and I contend that the country is split in two .

Yes.

The main objective of the military for staging the coup - healing the rifts in the country - has clearly not been reached.

I beg to differ.

The main objective of the coup was to prevent Taksin from declaring an emergency state wich would have turnd him into a small dictator.

The coup promissed it will make a referendum to the constitution and that they will hold poer untill the new elections come through.

The PM announced today that after the elections he will step down from politics... make him one of the only honest politician around.

like it or not they have done everything they said they will do.... unlike most politicians...

[hammered]

and I contend that the country is split in two .

Yes.

The main objective of the military for staging the coup - healing the rifts in the country - has clearly not been reached.

So maybe after the next set of elections somebody will do better. We need to move on that is for sure.

[hammered]

and I contend that the country is split in two .

Yes.

The main objective of the military for staging the coup - healing the rifts in the country - has clearly not been reached.

I beg to differ.

The main objective of the coup was to prevent Taksin from declaring an emergency state wich would have turnd him into a small dictator.

The coup promissed it will make a referendum to the constitution and that they will hold poer untill the new elections come through.

The PM announced today that after the elections he will step down from politics... make him one of the only honest politician around.

like it or not they have done everything they said they will do.... unlike most politicians...

That is hard to argue with

[Mid]

No vote in the North has broken through

No 296+K

Yes 288K

Void 16.5K

[ColPyat]

I beg to differ.

The main objective of the coup was to prevent Taksin from declaring an emergency state wich would have turnd him into a small dictator.

Any proof of that claim?

Public and official statements of the CNS? Links to such?

[hammered]

No vote in the North has broken through

No 296+K

Yes 288K

Void 16.5K

The North looks completely split on itself by provinces which surprises me. The whole lower north and Mae Hong Song seem to be going yes while the upper north minus MHS goes no. It is almost geographical which surprises me although there is a bit of rivalry between lower and upper north. Anyway as I have ben saying I will be very surpised if more than Tak ens up in the yes column.

Intereting which 2 provinces in the NE are going yes too.

[Mid]

COMMUNIQUE NO 1

Tuesday, 19 September 2006, 21:38 GMT 22:38 UK

It has been clear that the administration of the country's affairs by the current caretaker government has created conflicts and division, and sowed discord among the people of the nation.

It is unprecedented in the history of the Thai nation that groups were determined to win through ways and means.

The trend is getting more violent every passing day.

The majority of the people are suspicious of extensive corruption and malfeasance practices among the bureaucracy.

Independent agencies and organisations have been dominated by politics and unable to fulfil the objectives as stipulated in the constitution of the Kingdom of Thailand.

Consequently, political activities have encountered numerous problems and obstacles.

Frequently, the dignity of the Thai people's king was affected.

The efforts exerted by several sectors of society to alleviate the situation have failed to bring an end to the conflict.

It is necessary for the Administrative Reform Group under the Democratic System with the King as the Head of State, comprising commanders of the armed forces and the National Police Bureau, to seize national administrative power from now on.

news.bbc.co.uk

[hammered]

The 3:2 ratio of yes to no doesnt seem to have changed much for quite a while. That would extrapolate to a very handy win by democratic standards. Personally I expect it to narrow. Did anyone see what turnout was?

[Gnarpjohan]

Heard that everyone who votes must write their name on the ballot paper. Is this true? If so, would be interesting to know how this information is treated and an obvious concern since the military puts pressure on the no-camp.

[hammered]

Heard that everyone who votes must write their name on the ballot paper. Is this true? If so, would be interesting to know how this information is treated and an obvious concern since the military puts pressure on the no-camp.

You may find that is a bit of disinformation. It may have even been aimed at keeping people from voting.

[ColPyat]

I just made a very rough and amateurishly simple pseudo-mathematical calculation, and if the trend stays as it is now, the constitution will be accepted in 55% 'Yes' vs. 45% 'No' ratio.

Which is not enough for the government to declare the referendum a success.

edit: I based this on population density, numbers of eligible voters, and not calculating in voter turn out.

Edited August 19, 2007 by ColPyat

[hammered]

Chatchuron has said TRT accepts teh adoption of the new charter. Looks like everyone is now moving on to the election.