Draft Charter Ready For Vote

[Mid]

abysmal turn out in the deep south ,

less than 1,000 votes counted in Yala out of a possible of 268K

[Mid]

Chatchuron has said TRT accepts teh adoption of the new charter. Looks like everyone is now moving on to the election.

sorry , can't resist

<deleted> does TRT ( who don't exist ) have to do with anything ??

rhetorical .

[Mid]

and Yes jumps ahead in the North now

Yes 448K

No 431K

Void 24K

[hammered]

I just made a very rough and amateurishly simple pseudo-mathematical calculation, and if the trend stays as it is now, the constitution will be accepted in 55% 'Yes' vs. 45% 'No' ratio.

Which is not enough for the government to declare the referendum a success.

edit: I based this on population density, numbers of eligible voters, and not calculating in voter turn out.

Persoanlly I think it may be even closer when looking at which provinces have reported low amounts but it becomes less important now we move on. If the charter gets 55-45 accepted the Junta will claim it a success in that it passed the vote in an election and means the country can go the election. In any system a 10 point win is quite a lot if that is what it ends up with. There are many elected officials and goverments with less than a ten point win. What however the generals will worry about is what it means for the election. Although it is wrong to argue the whole 45% would be TRT voters it implies a large amount of TRT voters. Additinally the 45% is spread countrywide and many TRT votes will go down against opponents in other areas. However TRT looks very strong in the Isaan and in the upper North. That will mean candidates will want to run under their new PPP hat. That will give a lot of seats. Of course the generals will be happy if as it now seems the central region has seen a decrease in support for TRT. Candidates are more likely to want to run under another hat now. If the lower norh contiues its trend of going yes a similar effect will occur. Basically a mixed day for everyone imho. TRT still retain strength in cetain areas while they have lost it in others but will remain a force in the next parliament and could possibly even be in government although they wont be the dominant force they once were. Expect a lot of political maneuvering and deals.

I use TRT to denote the TRT group within the PPP.

Edited August 19, 2007 by hammered

[hammered]

Chatchuron has said TRT accepts teh adoption of the new charter. Looks like everyone is now moving on to the election.

sorry , can't resist

<deleted> does TRT ( who don't exist ) have to do with anything ??

rhetorical .

TRT group is what they call themselves I shorten to TRT. sorry if it annoys. Take it up with Chatchuron.

[Mid]

TRT group is what they call themselves I shorten to TRT. sorry if it annoys. Take it up with Chatchuron.

appoligies , wasn't aimed at you per sec ,

eg :

TRT says it accepts adoption of charter

The Post Publishing Public Co

continued use of the name by the media conflicts with the courts orders , no ??

[hammered]

TRT group is what they call themselves I shorten to TRT. sorry if it annoys. Take it up with Chatchuron.

appoligies , wasn't aimed at you per sec ,

eg :

TRT says it accepts adoption of charter

The Post Publishing Public Co

continued use of the name by the media conflicts with the courts orders , no ??

It may just be as simple as everyone will still know them as TRT so why not call em it? You may have a point legally though.

Apologies if I sounded harsh. I know you have a prety princilped position on what is best for democracy re this charter. Its passage as looks likely must be disappointing.

Peace

[Gnarpjohan]

Heard that everyone who votes must write their name on the ballot paper. Is this true? If so, would be interesting to know how this information is treated and an obvious concern since the military puts pressure on the no-camp.

You may find that is a bit of disinformation. It may have even been aimed at keeping people from voting.

Supposedly this was the case in Phichit. I think it reflects the concerns of some rural Thais. Do you have some counterfactual evidence?

[Mid]

Its passage as looks likely must be disappointing.

but not unexpected .

like the good General , I refuse to rule out further coup d'états

[highdiver]

I beg to differ.

The main objective of the coup was to prevent Taksin from declaring an emergency state wich would have turnd him into a small dictator.

Any proof of that claim?

Public and official statements of the CNS? Links to such?

Columnist Thanong Khanthong of The Nation claimed that Gen. Sonthi acted to prevent an imminent military coup by Thaksin. The columnist contended that Thaksin intended to use the political rally planned by the People's Alliance for Democracy at the Royal Plaza on Wednesday 20 September to trigger violence and then declare a state of emergency and place the country under martial law. General Sonthi would have learned from an intelligence report that Yongyuth Tiyapairat and Newin Chidchob were planning to organise a counter protest with the support of the Forestry Police armed with HK33 rifles[44] and acted before the bloodshed was set to take place.[45] On Friday, the Rangers were in the process of being disarmed.[46] Both Newin and Yongyuth were later detained, the latter being accused of mobilizing the Forestry Police.

Thailand's interim civilian prime minister will have a free hand in running the government after a post-coup constitution comes into force on October 1, coup leader General Sonthi Boonyaratglin told Reuters.

"I can assure you it is impossible that we will control the government," General Sonthi said in an exclusive interview at Army Headquarters.

"We will be the government's tool to keep peace."

He declined to name the successor to ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra but said the choice would be submitted to revered King Bhumibol Adulyadej after approval of the constitution.

Thai media are focusing on respected former army chief Surayud Chulanont, but General Sonthi declined to comment.

He said the military had decided to seize power three days before the September 19 bloodless coup on the basis of intelligence reports that "hundreds of thousands" of Mr Thaksin's supporters and foes were planning to converge on the capital on September 20.

He said the assessment was based on the number of buses booked to ferry demonstrators to Bangkok, raising fears of bloody clashes.

"The government was planed to have declared a state of emergency. If we had let this happen, people in the entire country could have killed each other," General Sonthi said, now head of the Council for Democratic Reform as the military coup leaders call themselves.

"There would have been a bloodbath. The Council had known of this three days in advance," he said.

"We could not let the country walk into that situation. Therefore, we had to do the 'reform' on the 19th. It was an emergency."

from another posting

The General Sonthi camp learned that during the PAD rally, Yongyuth Tiyapairat and Newin Chidchob were planning to rally their supporters to create an ugly scene at the Royal Plaza. During the ensuing commotion, there would be human casualties. Thaksin would then have stepped in and declared a state of emergency, placing the country under martial law.”

one of the main strong points to support this is that soon as the coup begun taksin already has the "state of emegency speach"ready for broadcast.

So Thaksin was aiming to have a state of emergency that unde the law would have given him absolute power to do what he wants for as long as he wants.

[hammered]

Heard that everyone who votes must write their name on the ballot paper. Is this true? If so, would be interesting to know how this information is treated and an obvious concern since the military puts pressure on the no-camp.

You may find that is a bit of disinformation. It may have even been aimed at keeping people from voting.

Supposedly this was the case in Phichit. I think it reflects the concerns of some rural Thais. Do you have some counterfactual evidence?

It is not normal practice, but you do get occurences at rural voting booths at most Thai elections. Persoanlly I wouldnt rule it in or out. People could take it up with the Election Commision although I doubt many would want to make a formal complaint. It sounds like convenient way for vote buyers to check that the vote went the right way. It may also invalidate the vote thinking about it. The Thai ballot is secret and I think if you do anything other than mark the box it invalidates the vote. Certainly sounds a weird one.

[Mid]

3:2 becomes 4:3 as the North swings again with No ahead .

[hammered]

3:2 becomes 4:3 as the North swings again with No ahead .

Mid it may be worth just waiting till tomorrow. the North threatens to swing both ways repeatedlly all night and some of those provinces havent counted much yet! I still side with the N going no but we wont know until tomorrow and even then the offcial numbers will take days and if its close could change it again.

That nation score chart seems to tease us. The overall score seems to dramatically increase the no and leave the yes unchanged and then dramatically increase the yes while the no doesnt change. Someone is having a laugh with us.

And Good God the south has changed from 10:1 to about 7:1;)

Edited August 19, 2007 by hammered

[hammered]

And Ubon Ratchatani switches to yes along with long time yes Isaan provinces Nakhorn Ratchasima and would you believe it Buri Ram in a tide of no. What does Mr. Newin read into that. I would have money on Ubon and Buri Ram changing by the end.

[LaoPo]

"I can assure you it is impossible that we will control the government," General Sonthi said in an exclusive interview at Army Headquarters.

"We will be the government's tool to keep peace."

I feel relieved...

LaoPo

[Mid]

Mid it may be worth just waiting till tomorrow.

agreed , tis better than TV though ......................

[hammered]

Mid it may be worth just waiting till tomorrow.

agreed , tis better than TV though ......................

I could be proved wrong though the yes vote seems to have taken an 80,000 lead in the last few minutes up north. I know the north quite well and this mystifies me. Maybe I dont now it well enough.

[Mid]

7:5 with 25% of eligible ( as opposed to actual ) counted

[Somtham]

Heard that everyone who votes must write their name on the ballot paper. Is this true? If so, would be interesting to know how this information is treated and an obvious concern since the military puts pressure on the no-camp.

You may find that is a bit of disinformation. It may have even been aimed at keeping people from voting.

Supposedly this was the case in Phichit. I think it reflects the concerns of some rural Thais. Do you have some counterfactual evidence?

Voting in Kamphaengphet, my wife says she needed to write her name on the ballot.

rgds

[hammered]

Heard that everyone who votes must write their name on the ballot paper. Is this true? If so, would be interesting to know how this information is treated and an obvious concern since the military puts pressure on the no-camp.

You may find that is a bit of disinformation. It may have even been aimed at keeping people from voting.

Supposedly this was the case in Phichit. I think it reflects the concerns of some rural Thais. Do you have some counterfactual evidence?

Voting in Kamphaengphet, my wife says she needed to write her name on the ballot.

rgds

Does sound odd. Forget what I said before. Will check me own wife later.

[Tony Clifton]

Well, as usual, the in-laws in Samutprakarn got a visit from familiar TRT related faces offering 200 baht for each NO vote in the household. The old man did as usual, happily took the 1,200 baht and they all voted YES.

Wife says that ID cards were bought for 500 baht each in the North Eastern area.

[Mid]

Sonthi says defeat in Northeast serves lesson

August 19, 2007 : Last updated 06:45 pm

Gen Sonthi Boonyaratglin said the overwhelming "No" votes against the draft constitution served as a lesson for the government to try to solve the national problems.

Sonthi made the statement after being informed that most northeastern voters voted against the draft constitution.

"The results reminded us what the real situation is. I think the government has failed to infiltrate the Northeast because of other problems, which are unspeakable. But we have measures to deal with the problems. This is a lesson for us to try to adapt the measures," Sonthi said.

The Nation

[Somtham]

Heard that everyone who votes must write their name on the ballot paper. Is this true? If so, would be interesting to know how this information is treated and an obvious concern since the military puts pressure on the no-camp.

You may find that is a bit of disinformation. It may have even been aimed at keeping people from voting.

Supposedly this was the case in Phichit. I think it reflects the concerns of some rural Thais. Do you have some counterfactual evidence?

Voting in Kamphaengphet, my wife says she needed to write her name on the ballot.

rgds

....and now, after having dinner and watching the election returns on TV showing the results in favor of adopting the referendum she is making jokes about the police visiting the house in the morning!! She's making up a story line :-)

rgds

[ColPyat]

Well, as usual, the in-laws in Samutprakarn got a visit from familiar TRT related faces offering 200 baht for each NO vote in the household. The old man did as usual, happily took the 1,200 baht and they all voted YES.

Wife says that ID cards were bought for 500 baht each in the North Eastern area.

Thanks for making the point i have tried to make in so many debates here: That vote buying has in the end very little effect on the actual outcome of elections. Which also is supported by studies of several political scientists.

[Gnarpjohan]

Heard that everyone who votes must write their name on the ballot paper. Is this true? If so, would be interesting to know how this information is treated and an obvious concern since the military puts pressure on the no-camp.

You may find that is a bit of disinformation. It may have even been aimed at keeping people from voting.

Supposedly this was the case in Phichit. I think it reflects the concerns of some rural Thais. Do you have some counterfactual evidence?

Voting in Kamphaengphet, my wife says she needed to write her name on the ballot.

rgds

....and now, after having dinner and watching the election returns on TV showing the results in favor of adopting the referendum she is making jokes about the police visiting the house in the morning!! She's making up a story line :-)

rgds

Thanks, interesting The folks I got the info from allegedly chose to vote "yes" because they did not want to risk any type of reprisals if they voted "no". Hence the concern...

[hammered]

Heard that everyone who votes must write their name on the ballot paper. Is this true? If so, would be interesting to know how this information is treated and an obvious concern since the military puts pressure on the no-camp.

You may find that is a bit of disinformation. It may have even been aimed at keeping people from voting.

Supposedly this was the case in Phichit. I think it reflects the concerns of some rural Thais. Do you have some counterfactual evidence?

Voting in Kamphaengphet, my wife says she needed to write her name on the ballot.

rgds

To clear this up. Every ballot paper had a tear off part at the top which you sign or put a thumb print on and is checked against ID card and electoral role. It is then removed and the vote box completed with your name no longer attached but as a record if any challenges or checks are needed. It is thus impossible to work out which name voted which way.

[hammered]

Well, as usual, the in-laws in Samutprakarn got a visit from familiar TRT related faces offering 200 baht for each NO vote in the household. The old man did as usual, happily took the 1,200 baht and they all voted YES.

Wife says that ID cards were bought for 500 baht each in the North Eastern area.

Thanks for making the point i have tried to make in so many debates here: That vote buying has in the end very little effect on the actual outcome of elections. Which also is supported by studies of several political scientists.

Buying the ID card would definitely have an effect on voting because you wouldnt be able to.

[Bryan in Isaan]

I have never heard of any TRT vote buying around our area in the Isaan. Maybe the people of that area are already so overwhelmingly pro-TRT that there would be no need - that is if the practice is really as widespread as so many Thaivisa members think.

In this case, according to articles I read, the "influence" came from the junta to vote for acceptance.

Edited August 19, 2007 by Bryan in Isaan

[Mid]

Thais support army-backed charter, early tally shows - Summary

Posted : Sun, 19 Aug 2007 14:39:12 GMT

Author : DPA

snip

This vote shows that the polarization of Thailand is entrenched," said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, director of Thailand's Institute of Security and International Studies. "It signifies a deeply divided country."

snip

earthtimes.org

[ColPyat]

Buying the ID card would definitely have an effect on voting because you wouldnt be able to.

But don't forget - Samut Prakan has always been at the forefront of that particular trick. Long before Thaksin made his appearance Samut Prakan was dirty as it gets in terms of politics.