Are Expats An Endangered Species?

[chinthee]

I've been reading many increasingly critical writings on this board and elsewhere of Thailand, and to this point I just sort of discounted much of it as sour grapes for some reason. But increasingly, I find myself asking why a lot of people would bother coming to live in Thailand now. I'm not talking about those of us already established, with wives, partners, businesses or jobs, or those who keep coming and drinking the kool-aid, etc., but someone new, with global options, and not so enamoured of Thailand. I'm not sure if Malaysia, Cambodia or Philippines is the answer, but increasingly, it seems that Thailand isn't.

For a retiree, it's looking MUCH less attractive, especially if your funds are denominated in US$. The devaluation of the dollar may continue and may not return to old levels again perhaps. The kind of adventurous retiree that perhaps commonly used to choose Thailand had visited in the past and fallen in love with the country, but may now desire to retire on limited fixed income. We've seen several threads started by people who don't have much disposable retirement income. The rising visa requirements, combined with the lower dollar have priced many out of the market now, and with the very real possibility of doubling of the visa requirements in the future (which has been the trend) even those who are now qualified to renew stays may be forced out. In addition, many retirees enjoy working part time to keep busy or supplement their income. This is not legally possible in LOS due to visa restrictions on work permits. At the same time, there is a thread now running on the continuing increasing costs of hospital care in Bangkok and Thailand. It seems medical care is not quite the bargain it used to be. The very real possibility of the visa goalposts continuing to move combined with the drop in purchasing power, combined with no options for earning extra will have a chilling effect on the retirement market. Adding to all the above is currency exchange uncertainty in other currencies and global concerns about possible downturns and bubbles. This could affect the property market as a result.

For those under 50, who are not married to a Thai, the visa options are very slim indeed. The job options seem increasingly bleak to anyone who doesn't teach English. Teaching English is not a high paying pursuit. Foreign MNCs choose Singapore or Hong Kong as regional HQs, and big expansions, like we've seen by Intel in Vietnam aren't happening here, and few new ones are looking to locate in Thailand. Japan, the largest direct foreign investor is on hold in Thailand. We have heard recently from those who have been cut from their expat jobs in Bangkok and had to relocate in Singapore. Starting a small business is very difficult, risky and a labyrinth of visa hassles. So, I keep asking myself how will Thailand attract any high income potential new foreign blood or in fact, brain power, IT, creative innovation or other talent. The huge influx of foreign students to USA and European universities has created a tremendous treasure trove for those countries in freshly minted, highly educated thinkers and leaders. Many of the overseas Chinese students have returned to China to seek their fortunes and enrich their native land. Are we to believe that Thailand produces a huge pool of such talent internally? Is this because the Thai education system is so great and pumps out creative free thinkers at an astounding rate? I see great growth and personal opportunities elsewhere in the region for those under 40, but not in Thailand.

For richer investors, the investor visa has been eliminated, so that is shut down. The Thai Elite card is rising to 1.5M Baht, and likely to get to 3M within 10 years, AND at the same time the benefits have been curtailed. Again, a move that has no relationship to supply and demand. Not many will opt for such an overpriced, undervalued programme.

Going back to the property market, we keep hearing how the condo prices keep rising in Bangkok, and new projects are sold out before they start. Yet, few people are actually living in them. Mostly they're bought by speculators, mostly Thai, but some foreign. In Pattaya, we hear you can't move property very well, and that, again, supply and demand forces do not work in Thailand, that is instead of dropping prices, prices go up, but demand goes down?

Combined with the above, come complaints from many expats that Thailand is becoming more xenophobic, and less desirable in a number of respects, including rising break-ins, pollution, robberies, etc..

It seems we're approaching a crossroads. If these current forces continue, I would imagine we will see a retrenchment of foreigners living in Thailand. I'm sure it will remain popular as a tourist destination. But, I think the expat population will shrink measurably. Some would argue this is a good thing. What's your view?

[lazeeboy]

the last time was in 1997 when the baht crashed and everyone living here with there money in baht freaked out ,it soon passed ,people talk but thats about it, were still run by the army but nothing has changed it ha'nt affected me or my thai family one bit ,as you say sour grapes

[bendix]

Spot on lazeeboy. People always complain about the hear and now - it's the human condition. In the big scheme of things there will always be expats keen to live and work here. If there is a difference, the 'quality' of the expats will change as tightening visa rules and the other changes chinthee mentions hits those at the the heel end of the expat world.

Neither tightening visa rules nor a week dollar affect most high-end expats - they structure the lives and salary arrangements with their employees to best effect.

And I think the figures belie chinthee's thesis. So far as I'm aware, applications for work permits are increasing year on year (perhaps someone has some data to back that up).

In future we'll see more serious expats. Genuine expats. Not sexpats or unqualified non-career teachers.

Soi 7 Beergarden may lose some custom, but L'auberge in Silom is doing very nicely thank you very much.

[Prakanong]

As for expats - we need to define the term as its used differently in different places. Singapore would have very few retirees but a lot of exapats working for MNC's and local firms.

Applications for WP's might be increasing but they are still very small - whats the figure?

60,000 or so per year?

879,000 in Singapore - I think this refers to EP's and not WP's which are the higher earners.

Yes thetrends should be looked at at not a point in time - its not a case study.

Analysing Thailand in a swot analysis is interesting though - there are threats and the opportunities are there too but what is the position vis a vis its comeptitors.

Thailand has to compete against others in the region for investments and while of course they are getting some are they winning their share or more than their share?

Thailand did recover its position from the 97 crash quicker than some others but currently its ttreading water due to the basket case of a political system. Interesting stuff spoken about this on many of the programs featuring 97 crisis 10 years on.

Yes the ecnomy is growing - 4-4.5 but is that enough to even employ all its people plus compete. Vietnam are talking about 10%++ until 2010.

Its certainly not all doom and gloom but Thailand is not looking like being the regional powerhouse it might have been 15 years ago.

[PeaceBlondie]

I 'fell in love' with Thailand on my first visit to Asia, and moved to Chiang Mai within months. But it's still a developing country with more than its share of problems, even if you're a native Thai citizen. For English teachers, it's the pits. The opening post explains the myriad challenges facing expatriates who might wish to work or retire here. I can't even get friends and family to visit me, and I wouldn't advise anybody to move here unless they already have millions of dollars which they're eager to lose.

Once you get to the higher end expatriates who can afford to live here very comfortably, earn big bucks, buy big houses for their girlfriends, etc., you're talking about rich folks who have 48 other choices of where to settle. Same for teachers: if you're good enough to get a top ranking job here, you've already got a far better job back home.

[Ulysses G.]

It is WAAAY easier to get visas and live in Thailand than when I first came here.

The good old days are right now!

[cdnvic]

To keep things in perspective, Thaivisa was never so negative and full of choruses of "That's it, I'm leaving" as when drinking hours were shortened.

Take the complaints with a truckload of salt. They're still coming in droves.

[Mobi]

There is a current thread where an American in his 60's is asking whether 500K Baht and an income of 35K per month would be sufficient for him and his wife to retire in Chiang Mai. Well, it might have been just possible a few years back, but now it's laughable, and will be come increasingly so in the coming years.

No one can predict the number of farangs who will be living, retiring and/or working in Thailand in the coming years, but there is little doubt that the 'lower end end' farangs - those with disposable incomes of less that 100k per month, will slowly disappear.

I think the cheap old days, where you could live for a pittance, duck and dive on dodgy work permits and visa runs are over for good, and that the increased cost of living will simply force most of those out who have insufficient incomes to survive in the manner to which they are accustomed..

I strongly suspect that these 'lower end' farangs will switch their attention to places like Cambodia and Vietnam and will conclude that Thailand has become beyond their price range.

Places like Pattaya will have to go through an adjustment phase where the sex tourists and 'cheap Charlies' of the 90's and early 2000's will gradually evaporate and be replaced by tourists, and retirees of a different ilk; many with a much higher disposable incomes, and who do not wish to spend their days sitting at beers bars getting blotto on cheap Chang, and persuading some middle aged Issan lady with 3 kids back in the village to give him BJ for the price of a meal.

Farangs won't disappear from LOS however. I agree with Bendix (2nd time in a row ), that the farangs will continue to come. There's more people in the UK earning 6 figure salaries than ever before, and there's plenty of folk around the world who can afford Thailand's increasing prices, and many who will come here to take up proper jobs (not running running bars or restaurants) and will earn high expat salaries, which ironically will help to push prices even higher and force the 'lower end' farangs out of the country.

The next ten years will be interesting.

[helicoptor]

'you can get it if you really want, but you must try, try and try, try and try, you'll suceed at last'

words from a song I forget the name/artist

thought it applied to this post

[BADBRAD]

'you can get it if you really want, but you must try, try and try, try and try, you'll suceed at last'

words from a song I forget the name/artist

thought it applied to this post

"You Can Get It If You Really Want" Jimmy Cliff

[cmsally]

There is a current thread where an American in his 60's is asking whether 500K Baht and an income of 35K per month would be sufficient for him and his wife to retire in Chiang Mai. Well, it might have been just possible a few years back, but now it's laughable, and will be come increasingly so in the coming years.

No one can predict the number of farangs who will be living, retiring and/or working in Thailand in the coming years, but there is little doubt that the 'lower end end' farangs - those with disposable incomes of less that 100k per month, will slowly disappear.

I think the cheap old days, where you could live for a pittance, duck and dive on dodgy work permits and visa runs are over for good, and that the increased cost of living will simply force most of those out who have insufficient incomes to survive in the manner to which they are accustomed..

I strongly suspect that these 'lower end' farangs will switch their attention to places like Cambodia and Vietnam and will conclude that Thailand has become beyond their price range.

Places like Pattaya will have to go through an adjustment phase where the sex tourists and 'cheap Charlies' of the 90's and early 2000's will gradually evaporate and be replaced by tourists, and retirees of a different ilk; many with a much higher disposable incomes, and who do not wish to spend their days sitting at beers bars getting blotto on cheap Chang, and persuading some middle aged Issan lady with 3 kids back in the village to give him BJ for the price of a meal.

Farangs won't disappear from LOS however. I agree with Bendix (2nd time in a row ), that the farangs will continue to come. There's more people in the UK earning 6 figure salaries than ever before, and there's plenty of folk around the world who can afford Thailand's increasing prices, and many who will come here to take up proper jobs (not running running bars or restaurants) and will earn high expat salaries, which ironically will help to push prices even higher and force the 'lower end' farangs out of the country.

The next ten years will be interesting.

Great saves me having to write a whole paragraph. I very much agree with Mobi. The next 10yrs will definitely be interesting and of course get far more expensive. It is a good time to take in stock whether your income is going to rise with inflation or not.

[LoveDaBlues]

Anyone who retires here and who can't live on 50% of their retirement income is asking for a problem. No one knows the future with regards to inflation (other than it will happen; but at what rate?) and of course the baht exchange rate. If you don't have a big cushion you're asking for trouble. For example, if you are retired here and from the USA could you survive an exchange rate of 20baht/dollar? I doubt this will happen but IF IT DOES can you survive?

On the other hand, if you can get your home built here and pay cash for a car and toys then your monthly expenses go down to zilch and you can live great and actually save money each month. Some of the posters here such as GaryA, Dr. Naam, and myself are in this group. I think this is the retirement group targeted by Thai authorities.

I would not live here full-time if I were less than 50 years old UNLESS I had a kick-ass job.

I think the 'endangered species' are those who have been living on the edge and now the edge is crumbling..........

[JR Texas]

Anyone who retires here and who can't live on 50% of their retirement income is asking for a problem. No one knows the future with regards to inflation (other than it will happen; but at what rate?) and of course the baht exchange rate. If you don't have a big cushion you're asking for trouble. For example, if you are retired here and from the USA could you survive an exchange rate of 20baht/dollar? I doubt this will happen but IF IT DOES can you survive?

On the other hand, if you can get your home built here and pay cash for a car and toys then your monthly expenses go down to zilch and you can live great and actually save money each month. Some of the posters here such as GaryA, Dr. Naam, and myself are in this group. I think this is the retirement group targeted by Thai authorities.

I would not live here full-time if I were less than 50 years old UNLESS I had a kick-ass job.

I think the 'endangered species' are those who have been living on the edge and now the edge is crumbling..........

JR Texas: What a horrible and totally boring place this will be if most of the posters here get their wish......it will be like living next to Rush Limbaugh!

[steveromagnino]

I've been reading many increasingly critical writings on this board and elsewhere of Thailand, ....

I'm not sure if Malaysia, Cambodia or Philippines is the answer, but increasingly, it seems that Thailand isn't.

For a retiree, it's looking MUCH less attractive, especially if your funds are denominated in US$.

For those under 50, who are not married to a Thai, the visa options are very slim indeed. The job options seem increasingly bleak to anyone who doesn't teach English. Teaching English is not a high paying pursuit. Foreign MNCs choose Singapore or Hong Kong as regional HQs, and big expansions, like we've seen by Intel in Vietnam aren't happening here, and few new ones are looking to locate in Thailand. Japan, the largest direct foreign investor is on hold in Thailand. We have heard recently from those who have been cut from their expat jobs in Bangkok and had to relocate in Singapore.

For richer investors, the investor visa has been eliminated, so that is shut down. The Thai Elite card is rising to 1.5M Baht, and likely to get to 3M within 10 years, AND at the same time the benefits have been curtailed. Again, a move that has no relationship to supply and demand. Not many will opt for such an overpriced, undervalued programme.

Going back to the property market, we keep hearing how the condo prices keep rising in Bangkok, and new projects are sold out before they start. Mostly they're bought by speculators, mostly Thai, but some foreign. In Pattaya, we hear you can't move property very well, and that, again, supply and demand forces do not work in Thailand, that is instead of dropping prices, prices go up, but demand goes down?

Combined with the above, come complaints from many expats that Thailand is becoming more xenophobic, and less desirable in a number of respects, including rising break-ins, pollution, robberies, etc..

It seems we're approaching a crossroads. If these current forces continue, I would imagine we will see a retrenchment of foreigners living in Thailand. I'm sure it will remain popular as a tourist destination. But, I think the expat population will shrink measurably. Some would argue this is a good thing. What's your view?

I've quoted the few key points, and will have a shot at addressing them:

- this board is not really reflective of what expats think here; it is only a subset, and a fairly non representative one populated by large numbers of farang married to Thais, a larger number of men than women, a fair few people not living in Thailand (and some crowing about it, god knows why they post) and a relatively large number of english teachers, retirees and entreprenuers. There are not many genuine expats working for MNCs or highly successful posters here. Those people have real jobs and are working :-)

- many people don't have US denominated retirement accounts; virtually no one outside of an American would have all their currency in USD; certainly with some cash in USA, I 'feel your pain' but the point is that USD is dropping against almost everything not just the baht.

- I don't know how much clearer you want the govt to make it; it isn't about xenophobia; Thailand simply doesn't want certain groups of people - they want people who work, pay tax and generate growth, they aren't that interested in lower paid people nor are they interested in people who don't want to work, except as tourists. Tourism and 'easy money' has been used to prop up the Thai economy for a while, instead of getting genuine net new growth. time to do something about it.

- genuine major investors weren't coming in on the investment VISA anyway; most of them would come in on BOI priveleges; the property boom is still phizzling on and off; go and look at the Scandanavian developments in Bang Saray for instance; reality check again; property booms don't create long term value. For many foreign investors buying 3-4 years ago, the gain they have made if they were to sell out now from currency alone is pretty decent; right now some of the more dodgy projects are struggling but you still have genuine buyers purchasing quality projects. Some speculation, sure, but plenty of genuine buyers as well.

If you don't like it, fair enough. I just think you need to stick you head out the window a bit, and you'll see the whole country is down a bit at the moment. We had our party for free under TRT, and now we are paying for it. Thais and non Thais alike.

Things will get better soon enough, but this idea that Thailand 'has it in for the expats' just seems to be circulating around boards like this, with support from a few carefully chosen quotes from one Ambassador in particular and the odd businessman usually in property.

I agree with the posters before me; the quality and prices will force low end long term tourists to seek other places; such is the nature of progress. Thank god.

[LoveDaBlues]

Anyone who retires here and who can't live on 50% of their retirement income is asking for a problem. No one knows the future with regards to inflation (other than it will happen; but at what rate?) and of course the baht exchange rate. If you don't have a big cushion you're asking for trouble. For example, if you are retired here and from the USA could you survive an exchange rate of 20baht/dollar? I doubt this will happen but IF IT DOES can you survive?

On the other hand, if you can get your home built here and pay cash for a car and toys then your monthly expenses go down to zilch and you can live great and actually save money each month. Some of the posters here such as GaryA, Dr. Naam, and myself are in this group. I think this is the retirement group targeted by Thai authorities.

I would not live here full-time if I were less than 50 years old UNLESS I had a kick-ass job.

I think the 'endangered species' are those who have been living on the edge and now the edge is crumbling..........

JR Texas: What a horrible and totally boring place this will be if most of the posters here get their wish......it will be like living next to Rush Limbaugh!

Thanks for putting words in my mouth. Where did I say this was "my wish"? I'm only stating what I perceive to be FACTS. IMO there are far too many posters here who cannot see/accept the way things are.

For those who want to live on the edge......fine......just keep your whines to yourself when it all goes pear shaped. I could not sleep well at night knowing I was living in a foreign country and had money problems. I guess to each his own.

the edge crumbles.......the 'short money' sexpats and lager-louts tremble........

[LoveDaBlues]

I've been reading many increasingly critical writings on this board and elsewhere of Thailand, ....

I'm not sure if Malaysia, Cambodia or Philippines is the answer, but increasingly, it seems that Thailand isn't.

For a retiree, it's looking MUCH less attractive, especially if your funds are denominated in US$.

For those under 50, who are not married to a Thai, the visa options are very slim indeed. The job options seem increasingly bleak to anyone who doesn't teach English. Teaching English is not a high paying pursuit. Foreign MNCs choose Singapore or Hong Kong as regional HQs, and big expansions, like we've seen by Intel in Vietnam aren't happening here, and few new ones are looking to locate in Thailand. Japan, the largest direct foreign investor is on hold in Thailand. We have heard recently from those who have been cut from their expat jobs in Bangkok and had to relocate in Singapore.

For richer investors, the investor visa has been eliminated, so that is shut down. The Thai Elite card is rising to 1.5M Baht, and likely to get to 3M within 10 years, AND at the same time the benefits have been curtailed. Again, a move that has no relationship to supply and demand. Not many will opt for such an overpriced, undervalued programme.

Going back to the property market, we keep hearing how the condo prices keep rising in Bangkok, and new projects are sold out before they start. Mostly they're bought by speculators, mostly Thai, but some foreign. In Pattaya, we hear you can't move property very well, and that, again, supply and demand forces do not work in Thailand, that is instead of dropping prices, prices go up, but demand goes down?

Combined with the above, come complaints from many expats that Thailand is becoming more xenophobic, and less desirable in a number of respects, including rising break-ins, pollution, robberies, etc..

It seems we're approaching a crossroads. If these current forces continue, I would imagine we will see a retrenchment of foreigners living in Thailand. I'm sure it will remain popular as a tourist destination. But, I think the expat population will shrink measurably. Some would argue this is a good thing. What's your view?

I've quoted the few key points, and will have a shot at addressing them:

- this board is not really reflective of what expats think here; it is only a subset, and a fairly non representative one populated by large numbers of farang married to Thais, a larger number of men than women, a fair few people not living in Thailand (and some crowing about it, god knows why they post) and a relatively large number of english teachers, retirees and entreprenuers. There are not many genuine expats working for MNCs or highly successful posters here. Those people have real jobs and are working :-)

- many people don't have US denominated retirement accounts; virtually no one outside of an American would have all their currency in USD; certainly with some cash in USA, I 'feel your pain' but the point is that USD is dropping against almost everything not just the baht.

- I don't know how much clearer you want the govt to make it; it isn't about xenophobia; Thailand simply doesn't want certain groups of people - they want people who work, pay tax and generate growth, they aren't that interested in lower paid people nor are they interested in people who don't want to work, except as tourists. Tourism and 'easy money' has been used to prop up the Thai economy for a while, instead of getting genuine net new growth. time to do something about it.

- genuine major investors weren't coming in on the investment VISA anyway; most of them would come in on BOI priveleges; the property boom is still phizzling on and off; go and look at the Scandanavian developments in Bang Saray for instance; reality check again; property booms don't create long term value. For many foreign investors buying 3-4 years ago, the gain they have made if they were to sell out now from currency alone is pretty decent; right now some of the more dodgy projects are struggling but you still have genuine buyers purchasing quality projects. Some speculation, sure, but plenty of genuine buyers as well.

If you don't like it, fair enough. I just think you need to stick you head out the window a bit, and you'll see the whole country is down a bit at the moment. We had our party for free under TRT, and now we are paying for it. Thais and non Thais alike.

Things will get better soon enough, but this idea that Thailand 'has it in for the expats' just seems to be circulating around boards like this, with support from a few carefully chosen quotes from one Ambassador in particular and the odd businessman usually in property.

I agree with the posters before me; the quality and prices will force low end long term tourists to seek other places; such is the nature of progress. Thank god.

This is a great post and I agree with it. For me personally (and a lot of friends here) now is a great time to be in Thailand. I don't buy into the 'sky is falling' mindset.

My worry is that the low enders in the tourist areas will seek cheaper digs in Thailand; such as Issan.......

[Mobi]

Anyone who retires here and who can't live on 50% of their retirement income is asking for a problem. No one knows the future with regards to inflation (other than it will happen; but at what rate?) and of course the baht exchange rate. If you don't have a big cushion you're asking for trouble. For example, if you are retired here and from the USA could you survive an exchange rate of 20baht/dollar? I doubt this will happen but IF IT DOES can you survive?

On the other hand, if you can get your home built here and pay cash for a car and toys then your monthly expenses go down to zilch and you can live great and actually save money each month. Some of the posters here such as GaryA, Dr. Naam, and myself are in this group. I think this is the retirement group targeted by Thai authorities.

I would not live here full-time if I were less than 50 years old UNLESS I had a kick-ass job.

I think the 'endangered species' are those who have been living on the edge and now the edge is crumbling..........

JR Texas: What a horrible and totally boring place this will be if most of the posters here get their wish......it will be like living next to Rush Limbaugh!

Thanks for putting words in my mouth. Where did I say this was "my wish"? I'm only stating what I perceive to be FACTS. IMO there are far too many posters here who cannot see/accept the way things are.

For those who want to live on the edge......fine......just keep your whines to yourself when it all goes pear shaped. I could not sleep well at night knowing I was living in a foreign country and had money problems. I guess to each his own.

the edge crumbles.......the 'short money' sexpats and lager-louts tremble........

Thanks LDB, couldn't have put it better myself. So because we state an opinion, it automatically becomes our wish??

As for my wish..., well, I guess if I'm honest, I would have to say that LOS would probably benefit from a reduction in the bald headed, pot bellied, Neanderthal Brits, who have a penchant for head butting each other, and anyone who happens to get in their way, every time there is a premiership match on the box.

After all, it was that sort of thing that I left England to get away from...

[jbowman1993]

Just don't read it. I don't lose any sleep over opinion of people I've never met. (I don't lose any over opinions of people I HAVE met either, lol)

Reminds me of the old mantra - Opinions are like <deleted>, everbody's got one.

Edited July 9, 2007 by jbowman1993

[chinthee]

I wrote this post today a bit provocative to stimulate the kind of discussion it has thus far. Luckily, I am also not in the category at risk, and I agree that this board represents only a fraction of all the expats living in Thailand. I myself have lived for years here, and only very recently decided to register as a member and come on and post. I've enjoyed my time here, but if I get bored with it, or too busy working, it may go to the background again. I also agree that the ones busy working here are by and large too busy to get on this board, unless their job is not demanding and have lots of time on their hands each day.

And, I agree that Thailand's efforts to weed out the less affluent expat and retiree will work. I'm just not sure the really affluent ones will continue to be attracted if the bar gets raised too high, as there are other options for people with money.

[LoveDaBlues]

Just don't read it. I don't lose any sleep over opinion of people I've never met. (I don't lose any over opinions of people I HAVE met either, lol)

Reminds me of the old mantra - Opinions are like <deleted>, everbody's got one.

I've always liked that quote but I modified it a bit:

Opinions are like <deleted>, everbody's got one; they are all just a bit different and most of them stink!

sorry......off-topic.........

[PeaceBlondie]

The changes in visa rules last year did raise the bar and move the goalposts. It is harder than before to live here legally, and it is more expensive. I'm not paranoid enough to believe the real movers and shakers in this country spend more than 20 minutes per month worrrying about White immigrants. Some folks on the margin will move on out, to be replaced by about the same number who have twice the money, but not ten times as much. We're not going to have many more moobahns like the one in Chiang Mai that starts with homes costing half a million DOLLARS. This is still a country that stands a good chance of shooting itself in the foot in the race toward globalization.

[chinthee]

The changes in visa rules last year did raise the bar and move the goalposts. It is harder than before to live here legally, and it is more expensive. I'm not paranoid enough to believe the real movers and shakers in this country spend more than 20 minutes per month worrrying about White immigrants. Some folks on the margin will move on out, to be replaced by about the same number who have twice the money, but not ten times as much. We're not going to have many more moobahns like the one in Chiang Mai that starts with homes costing half a million DOLLARS. This is still a country that stands a good chance of shooting itself in the foot in the race toward globalization.

Yah, I absolutely agree with you. Outside of Phuket, I am hard pressed to think of developments that can be supported in Thailand like that going forward with the policies in place now.

[Naam]

Just don't read it. I don't lose any sleep over opinion of people I've never met. (I don't lose any over opinions of people I HAVE met either, lol)

Reminds me of the old mantra - Opinions are like <deleted>, everbody's got one.

= pure logic that even a barbarian Klingon understand

Edited July 9, 2007 by Dr. Naam

[siamamerican]

Why panic! Market forces will cause the baht to fluctuate indefinitely. If a person budgeted 100k baht a month to live when the baht was 45 to the US dollar, either downsize or move on. I can guarantee the next country's currency will also fluctuate when compared to the dollar. It would be a bummer when you spend all the money setting up in a new country and the dollar looses value in that country. Maybe then the baht will weaken and you could move back to Thailand.

As for the visa issues, are they really that bad? From what I've read on this forum, there are many workarounds for those with a reasonably sized noggin and a little cash. If your so broke you can't afford the minor extra visa costs the regs have imposed, you probably shouldn't be living in Thailand.

As for pollution and crime, have they really changed? Even a drunk pervert roaming the streets of Bangkok at 3am is safer than that same person would be in almost any big city in America. The air would most likely be cleaner, but his liver will probably quit before his lungs. On a serious note, the pollution does bother me - just don't think it is any worse than the late nineties though.

Edited July 9, 2007 by siamamerican

[funfun]

Places like Pattaya will have to go through an adjustment phase where the sex tourists and 'cheap Charlies' of the 90's and early 2000's will gradually evaporate and be replaced by tourists, and retirees of a different ilk; many with a much higher disposable incomes, and who do not wish to spend their days sitting at beers bars getting blotto on cheap Chang, and persuading some middle aged Issan lady with 3 kids back in the village to give him BJ for the price of a meal.

The next ten years will be interesting.

Horses for courses, if you dont wish to do that fine, some TOURISTS do!

and not forgetting keeps an awfull lot of ISSAN LADYS WITH 3 KIDS eating and hopefully paying for school which some people didnt get!, unlike some retirees of a different ilk; many with a much higher disposable incomes!!

Edited July 9, 2007 by Jai Dee
quote limits corrected for clarity

[THAILIBAN]

. The Thai Elite card is rising to 1.5M Baht,

where did u get that ? Did I miss something ? I know it has been discussed to raise the fee or shut down the program completely, but I didnt find any news in the papers, though it was said a decision would have been made until 30th of June.....

[Prakanong]

The poster who say's the puu yai's probably do not spend 20 minutes worrying about white guys and their visa's is spot on.

Thailand has been very easy for people in the past with back to back 30 days and non-immigrant visa's given out by oversea's consulates willy nily in the past.

Maybe if they did give it 20 minutes though - put in a proper structure where they do attract the type of person they want and weed out the ones they do not want might be a good idea.

Expats working for the MNC's etc would have no problem, genuine retirees meeting the levels of income Thailand sets wold have no problem.

One big gap right now is people supporting a Thai spouse etc - they could make that better.

People wanting an extended holiday of say 6 months have no problems.

[steveromagnino]

The changes in visa rules last year did raise the bar and move the goalposts. It is harder than before to live here legally, and it is more expensive. I'm not paranoid enough to believe the real movers and shakers in this country spend more than 20 minutes per month worrrying about White immigrants. Some folks on the margin will move on out, to be replaced by about the same number who have twice the money, but not ten times as much. We're not going to have many more moobahns like the one in Chiang Mai that starts with homes costing half a million DOLLARS. This is still a country that stands a good chance of shooting itself in the foot in the race toward globalization.

I think you would be suprised at how reasoned a lot of debate is regarding drivers of economic development and overreliance on property as a driver plus the debates regarding whether money is a good replacement for hardwork and innovation.

Virtually every comment of this type, I have read on expat boards back in the early 2000s when Herr Taksin raised the VISA application and extension fees, introduced the disaster AKA Elite card and shut down the bar industry somewhat. I don't dispute that the bar is being raised; not so sure about mixing metaphors about the goalposts being moved; unless this is a rugby analogy??? :-) Raising the bar in goal posts generally makes scoring a goal easier, even if the posts have been moved. Especially if the posts are moved further apart :-)

The gentrification of some areas of pattaya formerly the complete scum hole of Thailand, and increasing numbers of affluent non sex tourist type longstay visitors such as the Scandanavian villages you see popping up show some improvement in the quality of tourists; sadly for some who do not even reach this low standard, they are now being 'encouraged' to leave and the popularity of Cambodia, Vietnam and Philippines says something about the access to funds and employment of some of these tourists/expats.

Far from shooting themselves in the foot, I see that Thailand has been enjoying a free lunch courtesy of rampant uncontrolled tourism, influx of foreign money into rural communities and now the the fruits of a short term property boom. A little bitter medicine and developing a genuine set of competitive core competence would be far more useful...and companies like CMI (from abroad), Naraya (homegrown) and a host of FDI can make that happen. And if it means kicking out some dodgy sex tourists along the way then all the better.

Perhaps we won't see tons of $1m USD villas in Chiang Mai. But what we may see are a generation of people coming in and doing something innovative and constructive in business such as has benefited Singapore, Hong Kong and Dubai. And hopefully a group of foreign people better than the lot we have now; such is the nature of progress. I think the group claiming that Thailand should have low standards because that is the best they can hope to attract are being very self serving; there don't seem to be a shortage of people lining up to come here; any investment issues are not specific to the changes in the legislation we see now, but rather reflective of:

- political uncertainty

- current lack lustre economic performance

- fall out from a high baht

- business lifecycles of certain industries

- fall out in addressing the rampant corruption of the previous administration

- some idiotic/inept management in trying to address some of the above

Sorry, but i just don't buy that allowing young retirees or people with little money plays any significant role in addressing the fundamental issue of upgrading and developing core competencies to compete in specific sectors.

To address any of these it would take a very brave strategist to say 'well since the baht is so high, perhaps Thailand should allow a lot of uneducated barbarians in to work in low end occupations for wages of less than 40,000b'

[chinthee]

where did u get that ? Did I miss something ? I know it has been discussed to raise the fee or shut down the program completely, but I didnt find any news in the papers, though it was said a decision would have been made until 30th of June.....

Yes, you're right, it's not decided yet, but has been recommended by its extermal consultant and certainly some hike appears likely as reported in today's BKK Post here:

Elite Card -BKK Post 9 July..

To address any of these it would take a very brave strategist to say 'well since the baht is so high, perhaps Thailand should allow a lot of uneducated barbarians in to work in low end occupations for wages of less than 40,000b'

I would never advocate this, BUT I would advocate a strong SME promotion business, ease of registration of companies, with special incentives including relaxed visa requirements leading to PR, to foreign entrepreneurs bringing in capital, technology and know how & developing the vastly underperforming SME business in Thailand. Funny, that seemed to really help create the wonders we call Hong Kong and Singapore. Maybe Thailand can learn something from its highly successful neighbors?

Edited July 9, 2007 by chinthee

[Mid]

doesn't appear to be any thought in here to the small business man .......................