Thai Baht May Hit 30 To The Us Dollar

[Freddyrocks]

THAI Baht is strong, causing export problems.

Sheeeeeeeesh, New Zealand's biggest whiteware company "Fisher and Paykel" has just closed their washing machine production line, due to the HIGH NZ dollar, US dollar rate. Highest in 25 years.

Gues what, they have relocated overseas, and where??????????.

Thailand...... PMPL.

I was given high 22 Baht for $NZ in March.

BOT rate today..........

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR = Baht 25.7433 - 25.8358 - 26.2776

Maybe I should relocate too.

Catcherz

Kiwi Pete

This same situation has been playing itself out in Germany, France, Brittan, Austrailia and now in New Zealand, and that is why unemployment is rising and will continue to rise in these countries. It is a simple matter of economics, unless industries are subsidised by the government (as some are in Europe) the strong currency makes it impossible for these companies to compete, so they relocate to China, India, Indonesia, Maylaysia,Thailand, Ecuador, Belize, Costa Rica ect. ect. ect.. The U.S. went through this in the 90's when the dollar was much stronger and unemployment was much higher. Now the dollar is weak in the U.S. and unemployment is basically non existant. Once again the folks that think a strong currency is a good thing just don't get it, if the Thai baht continues its rise then Thailand will find itself in the same perdicament as these other countries and will also be a net exporter of jobs. The sad thing for the citizens of the countries that are losing these jobs is that this is not a temporary loss, these jobs are gone for ever. Econ 101 guys, it just doesn't get much more basic than this!

Econ 101 VegasVic??? If that's what you believe then you never advanced past Econ 101!! The world Economy is a tad more complicated than that.

[Mid]

Thai PM vows to curb soaring baht

Posted: 14 July 2007 0344 hrs

BANGKOK : Thailand's army-backed Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont on Friday vowed to tackle the volatile baht, which hit 10-year highs against the dollar, but downplayed its impact on the economy.

"The government will try to stabilise the baht so as not to allow it to fluctuate to the unacceptable level," Surayud told reporters without elaborating further.

channelnewsasia.com

standing by ..............

[VegasVic]

THAI Baht is strong, causing export problems.

Sheeeeeeeesh, New Zealand's biggest whiteware company "Fisher and Paykel" has just closed their washing machine production line, due to the HIGH NZ dollar, US dollar rate. Highest in 25 years.

Gues what, they have relocated overseas, and where??????????.

Thailand...... PMPL.

I was given high 22 Baht for $NZ in March.

BOT rate today..........

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR = Baht 25.7433 - 25.8358 - 26.2776

Maybe I should relocate too.

Catcherz

Kiwi Pete

This same situation has been playing itself out in Germany, France, Brittan, Austrailia and now in New Zealand, and that is why unemployment is rising and will continue to rise in these countries. It is a simple matter of economics, unless industries are subsidised by the government (as some are in Europe) the strong currency makes it impossible for these companies to compete, so they relocate to China, India, Indonesia, Maylaysia,Thailand, Ecuador, Belize, Costa Rica ect. ect. ect.. The U.S. went through this in the 90's when the dollar was much stronger and unemployment was much higher. Now the dollar is weak in the U.S. and unemployment is basically non existant. Once again the folks that think a strong currency is a good thing just don't get it, if the Thai baht continues its rise then Thailand will find itself in the same perdicament as these other countries and will also be a net exporter of jobs. The sad thing for the citizens of the countries that are losing these jobs is that this is not a temporary loss, these jobs are gone for ever. Econ 101 guys, it just doesn't get much more basic than this!

Econ 101 VegasVic??? If that's what you believe then you never advanced past Econ 101!! The world Economy is a tad more complicated than that.

Yes indeed Econ101! The most basic concepts of economics like supply and demand, guns and butter, and free enterprise and profitability. Most here seem to not have the first clue as to how free market economies and trade work, hence the reference to the basic concepts that anyone who has studied economics should have gotten in their first year of studies. If you are incapable of understanding these basic concepts then you are likely to be in that group that thinks that a strong puond, baht and Euro are a gift to your country and not a curse. To the brit poster- it is true that I don't care much about spelling when brittan enters the topic, perhaps its my irish heritage . Watch for unemployment to continue to rise in Europe, especially in brittan , Germany and France (although I must say that Sarkosy seems to understand the problem and will likely take action to counteract it to a degree, and if he gets Tony Blair to become permanent president of the E.U. then there may be a chance to save some of those jobs that are leaving Europe currently). Palm, the facts about jobs moving to these counties can be easily found should you ever choose to get off that barstool and do any research, now that you are here can your alter ego thaigoon be far behind? As we post here the Thai baht continues to move closer to that 30/dollar mark that was the impetus of this forum, and as the baht gets stronger the layoffs will continue (as seen by the 5,000 laid off recently by the textile company). Freddy if you ever really did study economoics then I suggest that you go back and dust off some of those basic primers, and pay attention this time

[Freddyrocks]

THAI Baht is strong, causing export problems.

Sheeeeeeeesh, New Zealand's biggest whiteware company "Fisher and Paykel" has just closed their washing machine production line, due to the HIGH NZ dollar, US dollar rate. Highest in 25 years.

Gues what, they have relocated overseas, and where??????????.

Thailand...... PMPL.

I was given high 22 Baht for $NZ in March.

BOT rate today..........

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR = Baht 25.7433 - 25.8358 - 26.2776

Maybe I should relocate too.

Catcherz

Kiwi Pete

This same situation has been playing itself out in Germany, France, Brittan, Austrailia and now in New Zealand, and that is why unemployment is rising and will continue to rise in these countries. It is a simple matter of economics, unless industries are subsidised by the government (as some are in Europe) the strong currency makes it impossible for these companies to compete, so they relocate to China, India, Indonesia, Maylaysia,Thailand, Ecuador, Belize, Costa Rica ect. ect. ect.. The U.S. went through this in the 90's when the dollar was much stronger and unemployment was much higher. Now the dollar is weak in the U.S. and unemployment is basically non existant. Once again the folks that think a strong currency is a good thing just don't get it, if the Thai baht continues its rise then Thailand will find itself in the same perdicament as these other countries and will also be a net exporter of jobs. The sad thing for the citizens of the countries that are losing these jobs is that this is not a temporary loss, these jobs are gone for ever. Econ 101 guys, it just doesn't get much more basic than this!

Econ 101 VegasVic??? If that's what you believe then you never advanced past Econ 101!! The world Economy is a tad more complicated than that.

Yes indeed Econ101! The most basic concepts of economics like supply and demand, guns and butter, and free enterprise and profitability. Most here seem to not have the first clue as to how free market economies and trade work, hence the reference to the basic concepts that anyone who has studied economics should have gotten in their first year of studies. If you are incapable of understanding these basic concepts then you are likely to be in that group that thinks that a strong puond, baht and Euro are a gift to your country and not a curse. To the brit poster- it is true that I don't care much about spelling when brittan enters the topic, perhaps its my irish heritage . Watch for unemployment to continue to rise in Europe, especially in brittan , Germany and France (although I must say that Sarkosy seems to understand the problem and will likely take action to counteract it to a degree, and if he gets Tony Blair to become permanent president of the E.U. then there may be a chance to save some of those jobs that are leaving Europe currently). Palm, the facts about jobs moving to these counties can be easily found should you ever choose to get off that barstool and do any research, now that you are here can your alter ego thaigoon be far behind? As we post here the Thai baht continues to move closer to that 30/dollar mark that was the impetus of this forum, and as the baht gets stronger the layoffs will continue (as seen by the 5,000 laid off recently by the textile company). Freddy if you ever really did study economoics then I suggest that you go back and dust off some of those basic primers, and pay attention this time

I'll tell ya what Double V, if you want to believe that the "basics" are all that is in play here, then so be it. My guess is that you know better but hey, I may be wrong. Not going to get in to a pissing contest. What I know is that though 6 years of studying Econ(Undergrad&Grad) and working in Finance 15 years, that making things out to be simple(which trust me, I wish for) never tells much of the reality in the trenches. Have a great day/night/morning...Freddy

[Freddyrocks]

THAI Baht is strong, causing export problems.

Sheeeeeeeesh, New Zealand's biggest whiteware company "Fisher and Paykel" has just closed their washing machine production line, due to the HIGH NZ dollar, US dollar rate. Highest in 25 years.

Gues what, they have relocated overseas, and where??????????.

Thailand...... PMPL.

I was given high 22 Baht for $NZ in March.

BOT rate today..........

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR = Baht 25.7433 - 25.8358 - 26.2776

Maybe I should relocate too.

Catcherz

Kiwi Pete

This same situation has been playing itself out in Germany, France, Brittan, Austrailia and now in New Zealand, and that is why unemployment is rising and will continue to rise in these countries. It is a simple matter of economics, unless industries are subsidised by the government (as some are in Europe) the strong currency makes it impossible for these companies to compete, so they relocate to China, India, Indonesia, Maylaysia,Thailand, Ecuador, Belize, Costa Rica ect. ect. ect.. The U.S. went through this in the 90's when the dollar was much stronger and unemployment was much higher. Now the dollar is weak in the U.S. and unemployment is basically non existant. Once again the folks that think a strong currency is a good thing just don't get it, if the Thai baht continues its rise then Thailand will find itself in the same perdicament as these other countries and will also be a net exporter of jobs. The sad thing for the citizens of the countries that are losing these jobs is that this is not a temporary loss, these jobs are gone for ever. Econ 101 guys, it just doesn't get much more basic than this!

Econ 101 VegasVic??? If that's what you believe then you never advanced past Econ 101!! The world Economy is a tad more complicated than that.

Yes indeed Econ101! The most basic concepts of economics like supply and demand, guns and butter, and free enterprise and profitability. Most here seem to not have the first clue as to how free market economies and trade work, hence the reference to the basic concepts that anyone who has studied economics should have gotten in their first year of studies. If you are incapable of understanding these basic concepts then you are likely to be in that group that thinks that a strong puond, baht and Euro are a gift to your country and not a curse. To the brit poster- it is true that I don't care much about spelling when brittan enters the topic, perhaps its my irish heritage . Watch for unemployment to continue to rise in Europe, especially in brittan , Germany and France (although I must say that Sarkosy seems to understand the problem and will likely take action to counteract it to a degree, and if he gets Tony Blair to become permanent president of the E.U. then there may be a chance to save some of those jobs that are leaving Europe currently). Palm, the facts about jobs moving to these counties can be easily found should you ever choose to get off that barstool and do any research, now that you are here can your alter ego thaigoon be far behind? As we post here the Thai baht continues to move closer to that 30/dollar mark that was the impetus of this forum, and as the baht gets stronger the layoffs will continue (as seen by the 5,000 laid off recently by the textile company). Freddy if you ever really did study economoics then I suggest that you go back and dust off some of those basic primers, and pay attention this time

I'll tell ya what Double V, if you want to believe that the "basics" are all that is in play here, then so be it. My guess is that you know better but hey, I may be wrong. Not going to get in to a pissing contest. What I know is that though 6 years of studying Econ(Undergrad&Grad) and working in Finance 15 years, that making things out to be simple(which trust me, I wish for) never tells much of the reality in the trenches. Have a great day/night/morning...Freddy

P.S. Hey Vic, BTW-I recall in an earlier post you mentioned that you were in Sedona recently. I have property in both Flagstaff and Tucson, I get out to the Sedona area whenever I get a chance, good stuff!!(You see, we can be civil even upon disagreement-LOL) Though I'd share that. be good

[rayw]

Back to OP...

Live rates at 2007.07.13 22:37:33 UTC

1.00 GBP = 2.03451 USD

United Kingdom Pounds United States Dollars

1 GBP = 2.03451 USD 1 USD = 0.491520 GBP

1.00 GBP = 62.0178 THB

United Kingdom Pounds Thailand Baht

1 GBP = 62.0178 THB 1 THB = 0.0161244 GBP

1.00 USD = 30.4830 THB

United States Dollars Thailand Baht

1 USD = 30.4830 THB 1 THB = 0.0328052 USD

Friday the 13th!!!

Source: xe.com

Those rates for the Baht are totally wrong, in fact outrageously wrong. They look more like a rip off western bank selling currency rate to the unsuspecting punters who don't believe western banks are big crooks (and we complain of shady dealings here in Thailand, more like angels here than in the west for sure !!). Please do not quote these rates here as they are as misleading as the sensation seeking western press often are. Only naive people use these thieving western banks to convert their currencies, no excuse for any of us here on TV to be so stupid as we should all be well informed on this point by now. I bet they charge you commission too Just check with them for the figure they give you for when you want to sell those Baht back, over 70 needed for each £ I should guess!!

True rates for buying Baht are the TT rates (Telegraphic Transfer) and those are on 13th July direct from Kasikorn Bank (and similar on all Thai Bank currency exchange boards) as posted on their website. Here they are:-

1.00 GBP = 67.37875 THB

United Kingdom Pounds Thailand Baht 67.37875

1.00 USD = 33.20 THB

United States Dollars Thailand Baht

Here is the official Bank of Thailand exchange rate web page, worth a look for true rates and quoted for buying and selling which most western sites do not as I think they must be too embarrassed at the rip of size of the spread. Just go here and get the truth:- www.bot.or.th/Bothomepage/databank/FinMarkets/ExchangeRate/exchange_e.asp

If you are paranoiac and don't trust the main Thai national bank and want a accurate exchange rate western web site go here to the Financial Times dealing rates which also shows the interbank buy and sell (bid and offer) spread too:- http://specials.ft.com/siterefresh/stats/p...d/PSP130707.pdf You will see the mid Baht/£ rate is currently 67.7381 so Kasikorn bank and other Thai banks sell Baht at their TT rate at about 0.5% lower and buy Baht back for TT about 0.5% higher so a fair just over 1% spread and an acceptable level of profit. Even the currency notes spread is only about 2.6% now check out the notes rate spread in the UK and see that I only give the facts. Certainly not robbing bastards here like the western banks and institutions are. Just one of many reasons why I prefer to live here in Thailand as yes surprisingly they are more openly honest than most western societies these days and I hate being ripped off to the level you cannot avoid easily in the UK, USA and most of Europe.

If you really want a laugh look at this UK traders rates http://www.onlinefx.co.uk/fx/Stores/Online...xchangerate.asp 59.2266 per £ just check it out unbelievable !!! Seriously they need arresting and their directors locking up for what is in effect total fraud, they are trading on peoples ignorance and cheating them. Like many western banks and currency exchangers they do not publish their rate for buying back currencies, I wonder why ?? !!!!! I bet they woudl want about 73 or more Baht for each pound they will give you back and/or charge you a high commission on the deal. So do all you can to put these bastards out of business and tell all your friends never to go anywhere near them.

BTW yes of course I am aware a strong currency CAN be damaging to a countries economy if it is not backed up by true international trade, trouble is the big currency speculators cause the problem and force currencies higher or lower than they should be by true trading criteria. A realistic slight fall in a currency is usually damagingly exaggerated by the greedy bugger everybody currency speculators who cause so much of the instability we now see in world trading. No longer are rates a true reflections on a countries international trading performance, is it any wonder the world has gone completely mad ?? !!!

Edited July 14, 2007 by rayw

[Martin]

"BANGKOK : Thailand's army-backed Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont on Friday vowed to tackle the volatile baht, which hit 10-year highs against the dollar, but downplayed its impact on the economy.

"The government will try to stabilise the baht so as not to allow it to fluctuate to the unacceptable level," Surayud told reporters without elaborating further."

Unlike most who post on here, I have a great respect for PM Surayud's sagacity. Also, I have noted that he is careful with his words. So I looked carefully at what he said here, and it reassured me that this government is aware of the geopolitical situation and its effects on the worldwide economy in general and Thailand's economy in particular.

What we have seen these last few weeks is exactly what we came to expect when we discussed the way things were going in last year's thread: "Get out of $dollar$ now". Volatile currency rates can be expected in this time of worldwide transition from cheap oil and energy to ever-increasingly expensive oil and energy. Industries supplying made-up or manufactured goods for export will be under increasing pressure as too much capacity chases too few customers, and relieving them of the pressure will be impossible--though it may be possible to just ease it for a short while.

From what he said in his 'mission statement' on taking office and in his carefully-worded speech to the Foreign Chambers of Commerce and all the Ambassadors, it appears that the PM and the team he leads have a realistic view that Thailand's strength lies in its ability to feed its people with what it grows and have some to export for cash with which to buy a little in the way of imports of luxuries.

The PM's words quoted above indicate that the government is well aware that a bit of damping of the most violent exchange-rate fluctuations is all that it can do.

I read into them that the Government had thought things through in advance, is staying cool and will keep a steady hand on the helm. (That is, of course, the advantage of having an old hand at the helm---he has been through storms before and his judgment is not clouded by the desire to impress.)

As to the American dollar, there is little to be said. A country is no different from an individual: buying things you don't need with money you haven't got is unwise. It leads inevitably to deep, deep trouble, for yourself and for those who lent it to you.

[VegasVic]

"BANGKOK : Thailand's army-backed Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont on Friday vowed to tackle the volatile baht, which hit 10-year highs against the dollar, but downplayed its impact on the economy.

"The government will try to stabilise the baht so as not to allow it to fluctuate to the unacceptable level," Surayud told reporters without elaborating further."

Unlike most who post on here, I have a great respect for PM Surayud's sagacity. Also, I have noted that he is careful with his words. So I looked carefully at what he said here, and it reassured me that this government is aware of the geopolitical situation and its effects on the worldwide economy in general and Thailand's economy in particular.

What we have seen these last few weeks is exactly what we came to expect when we discussed the way things were going in last year's thread: "Get out of $dollar$ now". Volatile currency rates can be expected in this time of worldwide transition from cheap oil and energy to ever-increasingly expensive oil and energy. Industries supplying made-up or manufactured goods for export will be under increasing pressure as too much capacity chases too few customers, and relieving them of the pressure will be impossible--though it may be possible to just ease it for a short while.

From what he said in his 'mission statement' on taking office and in his carefully-worded speech to the Foreign Chambers of Commerce and all the Ambassadors, it appears that the PM and the team he leads have a realistic view that Thailand's strength lies in its ability to feed its people with what it grows and have some to export for cash with which to buy a little in the way of imports of luxuries.

The PM's words quoted above indicate that the government is well aware that a bit of damping of the most violent exchange-rate fluctuations is all that it can do.

I read into them that the Government had thought things through in advance, is staying cool and will keep a steady hand on the helm. (That is, of course, the advantage of having an old hand at the helm---he has been through storms before and his judgment is not clouded by the desire to impress.)

As to the American dollar, there is little to be said. A country is no different from an individual: buying things you don't need with money you haven't got is unwise. It leads inevitably to deep, deep trouble, for yourself and for those who lent it to you.

I would like to think that the P.M.(I also think that he is a decent man in an very tough position) could do something to bring some stability to the baht, but short of cranking up the printing presses 24/7 which will lead to hyper-inflation down the line, I think he is basically powerless to make any substantial difference. The world market forces at work here, both with the inflows to the SET from abroad and the FOREX traders bidding up the baht vs. the dollar, are certainly stacked against him and the baht for now. I say for now because I believe that it is just a short term situation, when the chinese equity bubble deflates (crashes, corrects, unwinds or whatever your favorite term is) then there will be some very serious redemtions in the SET by foriegn funds and investors and this will cause a very fast weakening of the currency which will be amplified when the FOREX traders turn on a dime and take the other side of the bet on a weaker baht, and those traders who don't flip to the other side of the bet will close out there bullish positions in the baht. When this occurs is anyones guess, I hope for the Thai people it is sooner rather than later because if the baht is kept on this strenghtening track for too much longer it will have some devestating side effects for the Thai economy in the short run as well as the long run. Americas' largest debt holders are the whos who of the 10 largest economies in the world, so for the sake of the entire planet I hope that this deep, deep trouble you see as inevitable is indeed not so! If this day of reckoning (that you seem to be hinting at) is indeed inevitable for the U.S., then you must realize that if the U.S. defaults and turns inwards that they do have the natural resources, food resources and manufacturing base to be a self sustaining economy! Personally I do not forsee this overly pessimistic scenario ever occuring.

[Mid]

Regional currencies gain as rally draws investors

Sunday, Jul 15, 2007

Asian currencies rose, paced by the Philippine peso and Indonesia's rupiah, as a regional stock rally signaled increased demand for emerging-market assets.

Investors sold yen to buy higher-yielding currencies in so-called carry trades, said Catherine Tan, head of emerging markets at Forecast Singapore Ltd

BLOOMBERG

Edited July 15, 2007 by Mid

[Martin]

"..... because if the baht is kept on this strenghtening track for too much longer it will have some devestating side effects for the Thai economy in the short run as well as the long run."

I agree that many individuals may have some major adjustments to make, and they may be made quite stressed by this. But, overall, there is a large element of "though we lose on the swings, we gain on the roundabouts" to this underlying trend of the strengthening of the baht. Basically, imports are easier to buy, but exports are harder to sell.

The areas of the economy that can be expected to shrink are manufacturing for export and the providing of services for foreign holidaymakers. (In fact, I think the latter is very vulnerable, as higher air fares work against it, as well as the stronger baht.)

The area of the economy that can be expected to thrive is the big, quiet one---agriculture. I note that the price of wheat is rising fast, so the price of rice can be expected to follow. For that huge number of Thais who grow the rice that they eat and a bit more to sell to the exporters, things will improve.

"...then you must realize that if the U.S. defaults and turns inwards that they do have the natural resources, food resources and manufacturing base to be a self sustaining economy! Personally I do not forsee this overly pessimistic scenario ever occuring."

Again, I largely agree. I would not be surprised at the next generation of Americans saying that they refuse to pay the debts incurred by the generation of their parents. Whether such a default is right or wrong is debateable, but it may be inevitable.

I don't disagree that the US could become self-sustaining. In fact, I think it is inevitable that in the very long term it will. However, I consider that it will be a more traumatic upheaval for the American citizens in general than the same transition will be for the Thais.

Actually, I am optimistic that the next generation, or maybe the next-but-one generation, will be a happier one after these transitions are worked through.

What would make me pessimistic would be evidence that countries won't start getting on with making the transitions to being basically self-sustaining in time.

Thailand has the advantage that so many of the workers who may be displaced from manufacturing and tourism have their rural skills intact, or sufficient knowledge of rural conditions to quickly acquire them. Thailand only had its 'drift to the urban areas' quite recently. So Thailand can be expected to be able to reverse it relatively easily.

But, largely, Europeans and Americans will find they have more learning to do. Their great grandparents could have managed 'reversion to rurality' quite easily, but it will be harder for them.

We will live in interesting times.

[VegasVic]

"..... because if the baht is kept on this strenghtening track for too much longer it will have some devestating side effects for the Thai economy in the short run as well as the long run."

I agree that many individuals may have some major adjustments to make, and they may be made quite stressed by this. But, overall, there is a large element of "though we lose on the swings, we gain on the roundabouts" to this underlying trend of the strengthening of the baht. Basically, imports are easier to buy, but exports are harder to sell.

The areas of the economy that can be expected to shrink are manufacturing for export and the providing of services for foreign holidaymakers. (In fact, I think the latter is very vulnerable, as higher air fares work against it, as well as the stronger baht.)

The area of the economy that can be expected to thrive is the big, quiet one---agriculture. I note that the price of wheat is rising fast, so the price of rice can be expected to follow. For that huge number of Thais who grow the rice that they eat and a bit more to sell to the exporters, things will improve.

"...then you must realize that if the U.S. defaults and turns inwards that they do have the natural resources, food resources and manufacturing base to be a self sustaining economy! Personally I do not forsee this overly pessimistic scenario ever occuring."

Again, I largely agree. I would not be surprised at the next generation of Americans saying that they refuse to pay the debts incurred by the generation of their parents. Whether such a default is right or wrong is debateable, but it may be inevitable.

I don't disagree that the US could become self-sustaining. In fact, I think it is inevitable that in the very long term it will. However, I consider that it will be a more traumatic upheaval for the American citizens in general than the same transition will be for the Thais.

Actually, I am optimistic that the next generation, or maybe the next-but-one generation, will be a happier one after these transitions are worked through.

What would make me pessimistic would be evidence that countries won't start getting on with making the transitions to being basically self-sustaining in time.

Thailand has the advantage that so many of the workers who may be displaced from manufacturing and tourism have their rural skills intact, or sufficient knowledge of rural conditions to quickly acquire them. Thailand only had its 'drift to the urban areas' quite recently. So Thailand can be expected to be able to reverse it relatively easily.

But, largely, Europeans and Americans will find they have more learning to do. Their great grandparents could have managed 'reversion to rurality' quite easily, but it will be harder for them.

We will live in interesting times.

Agreed Martin, In a time of absolute crisis the Thai people are much "closer to the earth" than the U.S. or Europeans are and that is of course because much of Thailand has just recently exited third world circumstances and some of Thailand still is in third world circumstances currently. I would vehemetly disagree about your supposition that any future rise in agriculture prices (mainly rice) will actually be a benefit that the Thai farmer will realize. The stronger baht will (actually this has already begun) make Thai agricultural exports more expensive and negate any increase in the price of rice on the world markets, its a net loss for the Thai farmers and this phenomenon has already begun to happen. Oddly enough in a time of severe crisis (the pessimistic scenario possibility) the large nations that would come out the best are the two superpowers the U.S. and Russia (I know that many don't consider Russia to still be a superpower but in terms of military power and natural resources thay are) because they have the infrastructure already built, they have all the natural resources they need within their borders and they have the military might so that no one will ever challenge them. I would add Brazil to that list also because of the remarkable transition to a self sustained energy supply that they have made in recent years and their strong argricultural base. Thailand and most of S.E.Asia would be in the same boat as many of the African nations currently are in, in that if an extended drought or some similiar type of natural disaster were to occur then the devestation and loss of life would be terrible. China would come to a grinding halt as they would have no markets to sell their goods and their domestic market and infrastructure is almost non existant. As I stated I do not think that this pessimistic scenario will ever occur and so lets get the conversation get back to the strong baht and its negative consequences to the Thai people.

[chinthee]

Hey Vegasvic, you're obviously a smart guy. Can you put your thoughts in pargraphs please? Thanks.

[VegasVic]

Hey Vegasvic, you're obviously a smart guy. Can you put your thoughts in pargraphs please? Thanks.

Hi again there Bro! I already answered that question when you asked me on one of the other forums earlier today. I guess you haven't had time to read my reply on that forum as of yet, or perhaps you are just posting this same question over and over again on every forum that I visit? If it is indeed the latter then don't see anything wrong with that, but you have to admit it is a little childish now isn't it?

[bkkandrew]

Back to OP...

Live rates at 2007.07.13 22:37:33 UTC

1.00 GBP = 2.03451 USD

United Kingdom Pounds United States Dollars

1 GBP = 2.03451 USD 1 USD = 0.491520 GBP

1.00 GBP = 62.0178 THB

United Kingdom Pounds Thailand Baht

1 GBP = 62.0178 THB 1 THB = 0.0161244 GBP

1.00 USD = 30.4830 THB

United States Dollars Thailand Baht

1 USD = 30.4830 THB 1 THB = 0.0328052 USD

Friday the 13th!!!

Source: xe.com

Those rates for the Baht are totally wrong, in fact outrageously wrong.

No, they are not wrong, they are simply the international, or otherwise known as, offshore rates. Thailand has insulated itself from the real money market rates by the exchange controls. This does not make the international (offshore) rates "wrong", let alone "totally wrong", or even "outrageously wrong".

Personally, I would not touch the offshore rates with a bargepole, but they are there and that is that.

Edited July 15, 2007 by bkkandrew

[LaoPo]

Hey Vegasvic, you're obviously a smart guy. Can you put your thoughts in pargraphs please? Thanks.

Hi again there Bro! I already answered that question when you asked me on one of the other forums earlier today. I guess you haven't had time to read my reply on that forum as of yet, or perhaps you are just posting this same question over and over again on every forum that I visit? If it is indeed the latter then don't see anything wrong with that, but you have to admit it is a little childish now isn't it?

It's not childish....Your posts, without paragraphs and separate sentences, are a pain to read and if you wish to be taken seriously I strongly recommend to adapt to a normal writing style.

What's so difficult about it?

BTW: I asked the same [about your writing] as Chintee on a different topic...but beware: it's not personal, just about your writing style.

LaoPo

[SNGLIFE]

We'll see 1997 all over again...

...should there be a sudden catalyst big enough to really shake things up. Like say, if the passage of time should catch up with a certain central figure. It's going to happen eventually. Just food for thought...someone else can clean the dishes...

[VegasVic]

We'll see 1997 all over again...

...should there be a sudden catalyst big enough to really shake things up. Like say, if the passage of time should catch up with a certain central figure. It's going to happen eventually. Just food for thought...someone else can clean the dishes...

The dynamic is quite different this time around, but the end result may be nearly the same after the dust settles. The two factors that will set off the crisis this time, will be a yen carry trade crisis and a colapse of the chinese equity markets. The former would cause the latter to occur, but the latter will occur on its own soon enough anyway. I hope when it happens it is more of a gradual process, however when things like this occur it usually happens very quickly (sometimes overnight).

[Jai Dee]

PM says BOT helps handle baht value and will discuss w/ 3 economic agencies this evening

Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont admits that the Bank of Thailand (BOT) is intervening in the appreciation of Thai baht.

Gen. Surayud says he will have a meeting with the Thai Chamber of Commerce, the Thai Bankers’ Association, and the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) this evening (Jul 16) to determine the measures to address the continuous strengthening of Thai baht. They will try to prevent the current financial situation from producing unexpected events.

The Prime Minister says the government will do its best in stabilizing the baht without making immediate positive or negative changes so relevant agencies can adapt to the changes. He says the textile industry has been majorly affected by the situation, but the government can still manage the problem.

Prime Minister Surayud says the central bank is closely administering the currency situation as the officials are monitoring the changes at all times. He believes the bank has sufficient information and details to work out the problem.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 16 July 2007

[Jai Dee]

Thai Chamber of Commerce to finalize measures to control the Thai baht

Chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce Pramont Suthiwong (ประมนต์ สุธีวงศ์) reports that a meeting between three private sectors today (July, 16th) will finalize measures to control the strengthening of the baht. Other agendas of the meeting include free trade agreements and an economic perspective of next year which will be submitted to Minister of Commerce Krirkkrai Jeerapath (เกริกไกร จีระแพทย์).

The three private sectors include the Federation of Thai Industries, the Thai Chamber of Commerce, and the Thai Bankers’ Association. The meeting was called as Thai entrepreneurs, especially the exporters, have been heavily affected by the continuous appreciation of the baht.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 16 July 2007

[Mid]

handle , control

heard this before ??

[Jai Dee]

Exporters advised to reduce costs for survival

Thai exporters should attempt to reduce costs in all areas for survival if the baht continues to appreciate, according to the Department of Export Promotion (DEP) director-general Rachane Pojanasunthorn.

He said the continuing baht appreciation had affected most exporters.

However, Mr. Rachane said, exporters are still confident that their shipments would continue to grow close to the target level.

Exporters generally believe that the strengthening of the baht had reduced their revenue, but most had attempted to adjust their production and marketing procedures to boost competitiveness overseas.

To prepare for the continued appreciation of the baht, exporters are advised to hedge against foreign currency losses, improve their production capacity, reduce costs, develop human resources, and upgrade product design.

Also, they should expand exports to various markets, particularly those which appreciate Thai product value such as China, India, Africa, and Middle East countries.

Mr. Rachane said the department was in the process of preparing a strategy to encourage Thai entrepreneurs to do business overseas.

DEP will seek cabinet approval for measures to achieve the strategy such as tax incentive offers, and enhancing production efficiency.

The department is confident that exports this year would nonetheless continue growing 12.5 per cent to US$146 billion as targeted earlier, although exporters will receive less revenue in baht terms.

Thailand's trade surplus this year is likely to be no less than $6-7 billion or Bt340-350 billion.

In the first five months of 2007, Thailand's exports totaled $58.75 billion, up 18.8 per cent from the same period last year.

To achieve the target, the country must export $87.21 billion in value, up 8.6 per cent, in the remaining seven months of the year, or an average of $12.46 billion per month.

Source: TNA - 16 July 2007

[Mid]

The department is confident that exports this year would nonetheless continue growing 12.5 per cent to US$146 billion as targeted earlier, although exporters will receive less revenue in baht terms.

where did i put that smoke and mirrors pic ............................................

[Pattayatony]

I think the Thai Govt had better do something real quick.

Taken from XE.com

Live rates at 2007.07.16 07:32:33 UTC

1.00 USD = 29.9549

[Jai Dee]

Energy Minister says Thai currency has no impact on oil business

Energy Minister Piyasvasti Amranand insists that the sharp strengthening of Thai baht will not affect the oil business. He says the rising oil prices are due to the mechanisms in the global oil market.

Mr. Piyasvasti says the appreciation of Thailand’s currency will help Thailand import oil at cheaper prices. Since the end of last year, oil prices in the global market have climbed up to 20 US dollars per barrel, or about 5 baht per litter. At the moment, the prices have fallen to only about 3 baht per liter. Mr. Piyasvasti says the Energy Ministry will have to collect money for the oil fund.

The Energy Minister says the FT rate for electricity is also unaffected by the currency situation since the Ministry of Energy uses the oil prices and other external factors such as the amount of rainfall to calculate the FT rate. In addition, the rising oil prices in the world market have lowered the FT rate.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 16 July 2007

[Jai Dee]

Baht measures proposed to Commerce Ministry

The joint private committee comprising the Federation of Thai Industries, the Thai Chamber of Commerce, and the Thai Bankers Association, on Monday proposed its short-term and medium to long-term measures of dealing with the stronger baht to Commerce Minister Krirk-krai Jirapaet.

The short-term measures include the extension of the period that exporters can hold the foreign currency accounts to more than the current limitation of 14 days.

More, the government should urge the state enterprises to repay US dollar-denominated debt before the due dates.

In addition, the committee urges the government to set up the fund to help the SME exporters, which have been affected by the stronger baht.

According to their proposed medium and long-term measures, the government should establish fund to handle the continued baht appreciation as well as providing more privileges to local investors to encourage their overseas investment.

The joint private committee would in this evening meet with Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont to propose the measures.

Separately, Narongchai Akarasanee, chairman of Export-Import Bank of Thailand, said in a seminar on Monday that Thai government should use at least US$10 billion of foreign reserves which is at around US$73 billion at present to help curb baht appreciation as a short-term measure.

He said the government should allow state-enterprises as well as private sector to convert their foreign debts into baht.

Meanwhile, Finance Minister Chalonphob Sussangkarn commented on Monday that he doesn't agree that Thailand should implement the fixed exchange regime or the basket of currencies as suggested by some. "It is too old fashion," he said. He added the solution for the baht appreciation is that the central bank fully implements the existing measures. So far, the central bank may act too slow, he said.

In addition, Bank of Thailand governor Tarisa Watanagase insisted that the central bank would not turn back to implement the fixed foreign exchange regime.

Asked how the central bank would help exporters amid rising baht, she said the BOT has already helped "oversee" baht.

Source: The Nation - 16 July 2007

[rayw]

Back to OP...

Live rates at 2007.07.13 22:37:33 UTC

1.00 GBP = 2.03451 USD

United Kingdom Pounds United States Dollars

1 GBP = 2.03451 USD 1 USD = 0.491520 GBP

1.00 GBP = 62.0178 THB

United Kingdom Pounds Thailand Baht

1 GBP = 62.0178 THB 1 THB = 0.0161244 GBP

1.00 USD = 30.4830 THB

United States Dollars Thailand Baht

1 USD = 30.4830 THB 1 THB = 0.0328052 USD

Friday the 13th!!!

Source: xe.com

Those rates for the Baht are totally wrong, in fact outrageously wrong.

No, they are not wrong, they are simply the international, or otherwise known as, offshore rates. Thailand has insulated itself from the real money market rates by the exchange controls. This does not make the international (offshore) rates "wrong", let alone "totally wrong", or even "outrageously wrong".

Personally, I would not touch the offshore rates with a bargepole, but they are there and that is that.

Yes I agree they are genuinely quoted rates and never said otherwise, but misleading would be the better word I should have used. They are the SELLING rates for Thai Baht by Western rip off banks and organisations NOT just offshore as they are very similar to rates quoted by main stream banks in USA and Europe. Or even worse if you look at the UK web site currency trader I pointed out to you where there was that really outragious rip off rate of under 60 Baht per £. Now please just go to these "offshore" sources and ask them for their rate for buying Thai Baht back (Cash and TT) and I will be surprised if they are not near or over 70 baht for each £ for example. Folk then compare these rip off selling Baht rates that you quote here of 61 and 62 Baht per £ to the rate they got last year for maybe selling Baht back to a western bank like at 74 or 75 Baht per £ and say wow what a rise in the Baht (or a big fall in the £). As I said totally misleading and leads folk to making the wrong conclusions.

The ONLY fair comparison is as I said the MIDDLE rate, or at least you should use more honest banking sources like we get in Thailand. Always bank note rates (cash ) will be worse by a bit as it is more expensive to manage forex cash tills, but in Thailand you can buy Baht CASH today for about 66.5 per £ or 32.88 per US$ ($50 and $100 bills). Typically in Thailand the difference between buying and selling Bank Notes is about 2% - 2.5% with no commission charged, and this a fair and honest trading mark up, in most Western countries this difference in buy and sell rates is typically about 14% to 18%, sorry but that cannot be justified by any honest organisation, as I keep saying it is criminal and a scam, even 5% is way too high.

So here are the genuine rates today for BUYING BAHT Exchanging CASH (these will vary during the day but usually not by that much) and for transferring funds via the banking system and having the conversion carried out here (TT Rate) and shown in brackets. ALWAYS REMEMBER CHANGE YOUR CURRENCY TO BAHT HERE IN THAILAND ONLY, DO NOT HELP FUND THE WESTERN THIEVES

UK Pound - 66.49725 (67.385)

Euro - 45.2265 (45.60

US$($50 -$100 bills) - 32.88 (33.4)

Can $ - 31.03875 (31.58375)

Aud $ - 28.40750 (28.815)

[Mid]

Private sector offers plan to ease baht rise impact

Monday 16 July 2007 05:31:40 PM (GMT+7:00)

A tripartite private-sector committee from the Federation of Thai Industries, the Thai Chamber of Commerce and the Thai Bankers' Association has recommended seven short-term measures for the government to implement to ease the impact of the baht surge.

snip

Importers and exporters may hold foreign currencies indefinitely. At present only 14 days is permitted.

Individuals may hold over US$200,000, and may pay expenses in dollars, while the state should speed up tax refunds to exporters.

In addition, state enterprises may repay debts (especially in dollars), in advance to allow moving the greenback out of Thailand to help ease pressure on the baht.

The private sector committee also called on the state to gradually import oil and capital goods in advance to help reduce the cost of imports and cut the supply of the dollar.

Finally, an Small- and Medium-Enterprise Supervision Fund should be set up to boost liquidity in case the SMEs experience a liquidity crunch.

Mr. Apisak said the committee also proposed medium- and long-term measures to ease impacts of the baht fluctuation.

First, a fund should be set up to manage the baht in case its movement is affected by the dollar fluctuation.

Second, Thais should be encouraged to invest overseas.

Third, the private and public sectors should join to enhance efficiency of the industrial sector so that it could compete in the world market.

Finally, the state should accelerate implementing megaprojects which count on overseas raw material overseas for construction.

snip

MCOT Public Company Limited

Edited July 16, 2007 by Mid

[LaoPo]

Private sector offers plan to ease baht rise impact

Monday 16 July 2007 05:31:40 PM (GMT+7:00)

A tripartite private-sector committee from the Federation of Thai Industries, the Thai Chamber of Commerce and the Thai Bankers' Association has recommended seven short-term measures for the government to implement to ease the impact of the baht surge.

snip

Importers and exporters may hold foreign currencies indefinitely. At present only 14 days is permitted.

Individuals may hold over US$200,000, and may pay expenses in dollars, while the state should speed up tax refunds to exporters.

In addition, state enterprises may repay debts (especially in dollars), in advance to allow moving the greenback out of Thailand to help ease pressure on the baht.

The private sector committee also called on the state to gradually import oil and capital goods in advance to help reduce the cost of imports and cut the supply of the dollar.

Finally, an Small- and Medium-Enterprise Supervision Fund should be set up to boost liquidity in case the SMEs experience a liquidity crunch.

Mr. Apisak said the committee also proposed medium- and long-term measures to ease impacts of the baht fluctuation.

First, a fund should be set up to manage the baht in case its movement is affected by the dollar fluctuation.

Second, Thais should be encouraged to invest overseas.

Third, the private and public sectors should join to enhance efficiency of the industrial sector so that it could compete in the world market.

Finally, the state should accelerate implementing megaprojects which count on overseas raw material overseas for construction.

snip

MCOT Public Company Limited

Interesting to learn if the BOT/Government will listen to these recommendations.

THIS might influence the Dollar and thus Thai Baht as well:

Iran Asks Japan to Pay Yen for Oil, Start Immediately

" July 13 (Bloomberg) -- Iran asked Japanese refiners to switch to the yen to pay for all crude oil purchases, after Iran's central bank said it is reducing holdings of the U.S. dollar.

Iran wants yen-based transactions ``for any/all of your forthcoming Iranian crude oil liftings,'' according to a letter sent to Japanese refiners that was signed by Ali A. Arshi, general manager of crude oil marketing and exports in Tehran at the National Iranian Oil Co. The request is for all shipments ``effective immediately,'' according to the letter, dated July 10 and obtained by Bloomberg News.

The yen rose on speculation for an increase in demand for the currency, the result of Japan's annual 1.24 trillion yen ($10.1 billion) of oil imports from Iran. Central bankers in Venezuela, Indonesia and the United Arab Emirates have said they will invest less of their reserves in dollar assets because of the weakening currency.

``What else can Japan do but to accept the request, once the oil producer sent its wish?'' said Hirofumi Kawachi, an analyst at Mizuho Investors Securities Co. in Tokyo. ``The tensions between the U.S. and Iran are escalating, and it's Iran's measure to hedge risk.''

Rest of article on Bloomberg.

LaoPo

[chinthee]

And so begins Iran's first real confrontation with the US.

[chownah]

And so begins Iran's first real confrontation with the US.

Are you kidding? Seems like the gov't that ousted the Shaw had a bit of a confrontational attitude towards the US....holding US citizens against their will....little things like that.....