Former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra (centre) is understood to be in Singapore as he prepares to return to Thailand at 9 am on Tuesday morning. His return and probable imprisonment come on the same day as Pheu Thai Party nominee Srettha Thavisin (below left) will be put forward for Prime Minister in parliament, with his candidacy facing strong opposition from senators, including Senator Kittisak Rattanawaraha (above left) in a turn of events that has left the 65% of Thai voters who voted for pro-democracy and reform parties in the May 14th General Election, agape.

Dramatic moments are ahead in Thai politics with the public currently frozen in shock at the developments since the May 14th General Election. This may soon give way to anger and street protests if matters go as some senior and established analysts suggest they will from Tuesday and the days after that, as the Old Guard reasserts itself in power.

Next Tuesday may be a decisive day in Thai politics if former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra lands at Don Mueang Airport and is imprisoned while later, in the evening, the Pheu Thai Party’s nominee for Prime Minister runs the gauntlet of an increasingly activist Senate when his nomination to be Thailand’s 30th Prime Minister comes before Parliament. Inside sources suggest strongly that it will be defeated and that the Pheu Thai Party and its longtime figurehead face betrayal and demise as a result of a conservative plot fashioned to install Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwan in the top job at the head of a government favouring the old guard in Thai politics.

Next Tuesday, August 22nd promises to be a historic day for Thailand as it is reported that ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra will finally return to the country after over 15 years in exile.

 

by Joseph O' Connor

 

Full story: https://www.thaiexaminer.com/thai-news-foreigners/2023/08/19/political-betrayal-fears-rise-as-thaksin-returns-don-mueang-airport-tuesday/

 

-- Thai Examiner 2023-08-21

 

- Cigna offers a range of visa-compliant plans that meet the minimum requirement of medical treatment, including COVID-19, up to THB 3m. For more information on all expat health insurance plans click here.

 

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This same nonsense has been stated many times in the past.  I'll believe it if/when it happens.

3 hours ago, webfact said:

the Pheu Thai Party and its longtime figurehead face betrayal and demise as a result of a conservative plot fashioned to install Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwan in the top job at the head of a government favouring the old guard in Thai politics.

If that happens I can envisage a public backlash, verbal or physically I don't know.

Thaksin was deposed by an army coup; the same generals are still running the country irrespective of the election.  If I were Thaksin I'd continue to enjoy my ill-gotten games in Dubai & fly my friends/family out for frequent visits.

27 minutes ago, mikebell said:

Thaksin was deposed by an army coup; the same generals are still running the country irrespective of the election.  If I were Thaksin I'd continue to enjoy my ill-gotten games in Dubai & fly my friends/family out for frequent visits.

I think it is a foregone conclusion that Prawit will be PM. Obviously some deal has been made to allow Mr T back but I can't see any advantage for PT or Prawit, except perhaps if Mr T will be used to mitigate any PT uprising and stop any violent coalition between the red shirts and MFP on the streets, either that or there is something we have overseen. Whatever, the elite's machine is working like clockwork, silently and patiently cutting down all obstacles to return to power against the will of the people, if their success wasn't so awful their efficiency would be almost admirable. Perhaps a cadre of young lions in the military could put a stop to it but that is a forlorn hope, whoever has heard of a military that supports democracy.

57 minutes ago, mikebell said:

Thaksin was deposed by an army coup; the same generals are still running the country irrespective of the election.  If I were Thaksin I'd continue to enjoy my ill-gotten games in Dubai & fly my friends/family out for frequent visits.

I tend to agree.  The army hs since he was charged been trying to figure out a way to get him behind bars.  

 

The funniest thing that could happen is that the PT coalition falls flat, Thaksin has to re route his plane to Cambodia and Prawit or Anutin become PM.

 

the PT will lose a lot of face and will suffer the same faite as the Dems. People backing Thaksin will be upest that they made him look bad.  Many of the redshirt democracy supporters will remember that they went backon ALL their promises and not trust them.

 

Prawit will be in charge of a government that willnot be able to pass any legislature.

People in the country will be awoken to what the military and it's elite backers are doing to the country.

 

MFP or what ever the name of the party is will be reqarded for doing what they said and sticking to their guns and also wil get valuable experice as the loyal opossiton shadowing the military government.

 

Only bad thing is that traffic in major arteries is going to be hell on most fridays.

 

1 hour ago, mikebell said:

If I were Thaksin I'd continue to enjoy my ill-gotten games in Dubai

Monopoly, Cleudo, Risk, Soccer, Cricket.........please be more specific, thanks.   5555

31 minutes ago, soalbundy said:

I think it is a foregone conclusion that Prawit will be PM. 

Going potentially further, Prayut as Deputy PM (trading places with Prawit) and Minister of Defense (his current alter-ego position). The Senate ideology and constitution remain unchanged.

I doubt the new regime will risk an uprising as a result of a soft coup to have the military remained entrenched as PM and government. The risk of a dynasty caught up with widespread demonstrations that could go beyond anger against the military can't be discounted especially from the younger protesters. History have seen this kind of protests that uprooted the old political structure. I don't think the ultra conservatives would even dare to consider maintaining the old status quo. 

Who would want to be a Thai politician.

 

Predators around every corner.

 

It would be like lying down in a room full of <add your favourite nasty> (tranatulas, scorpions, centipides, vipers etc.).

 

Everythings fine until you move!  

 

 

20 minutes ago, Srikcir said:

Going potentially further, Prayut as Deputy PM (trading places with Prawit) and Minister of Defense (his current alter-ego position). The Senate ideology and constitution remain unchanged.

Don't you think that it would be showing too much contempt for the voter, although I must admit the idea is so brazen as to be funny.

3 minutes ago, damian said:

Who would want to be a Thai politician.

Other tarantulas and scorpions.

 

Or a bright, young, slightly naive Western educated youth who loves his county. I think his time will come after a a learning period. A disjoint government with a powerful opposition may just be the ticket. Learn how to deal with tarantulas and squash scorpions.

About time. Nattawut, one of the two most prominent red shirt leaders has left PT.

 

2 hours ago, soalbundy said:

Don't you think that it would be showing too much contempt for the voter, although I must admit the idea is so brazen as to be funny.

The idea maintains the status quo of an elitist minority conservative government and whatever shred of liberalism the PTP represented, it has co-opted with the military to maintain power. 

3 hours ago, soalbundy said:

I think it is a foregone conclusion that Prawit will be PM.

Prayuth better than Prawit. But Prawit better than Anutin.

A troll posts in violation of our Community Standards has been removed.

I wonder what guarantees Thaksin has been given and by whom? He is very exposed to treachery if he is locked up. Prawit has been tipped for the top job ever since before the election so it would be no surprise. But it seems to me that the 'uncles' were brought in to ensure the Senate bought in to Pheu Thai as the leaders, and if they betray that trust Prawit cannot be elected with both Pheu Thai and Mover Forward (and possibly Bumjaithai) resisting them in Parliament. 

22 minutes ago, retarius said:

I wonder what guarantees Thaksin has been given and by whom? He is very exposed to treachery if he is locked up. Prawit has been tipped for the top job ever since before the election so it would be no surprise. But it seems to me that the 'uncles' were brought in to ensure the Senate bought in to Pheu Thai as the leaders, and if they betray that trust Prawit cannot be elected with both Pheu Thai and Mover Forward (and possibly Bumjaithai) resisting them in Parliament. 

I thought the deal was more likely to be that Thaksin pretends to choose Settha as PM candidate, then after Chuwit's attacks, senators have an excuse to reject him ( the rumblings the last few days).

Then PPP propose Pravit, elected all round including by PT, as payback to allow Thaksin home, with Pravit himself acting as a reliable figurehead for the elite. 

On paper it's a win-win for the old order and Thaksin, supporting each other through mutual benefit,  but lots could go wrong imo  

Clash of personalities, clash of benefits, some mutual loathing beneath the surface, plus public revulsion at the return of the dinosaurs embraced by PT, especially if MF are dissolved.

Pass the sick bag yet again, Alice.

 

 

1 hour ago, Srikcir said:

The idea maintains the status quo of an elitist minority conservative government and whatever shred of liberalism the PTP represented, it has co-opted with the military to maintain power. 

Yes, it shows how powerful and clever the establishment is, the majority stands with surprised open mouths while the grinning minority carries off the prize.......it was to be expected after all. Only violence on the streets will show how disappointed the voters are but (1) it wont happen and (2) I'm sure that such a scenario has been anticipated and counter measures are in place.  Strategy is their strong point.  

4 hours ago, KannikaP said:

Monopoly, Cleudo, Risk, Soccer, Cricket.........please be more specific, thanks.   5555

Any of those games available in Braille as a result of his recent medical appointment?

3 minutes ago, PETERTHEEATER said:

Any of those games available in Braille as a result of his recent medical appointment?

What procedure was that please?

23 hours ago, KannikaP said:

Monopoly, Cleudo, Risk, Soccer, Cricket.........please be more specific, thanks.   5555

I am red with embarrassment.  I rely more & more on spell-checkers as my brain cells are drowned in gin (rummy.)

Edited August 22, 20232 yr by mikebell

23 hours ago, kingstonkid said:

The funniest thing that could happen is that the PT coalition falls flat, Thaksin has to re route his plane to Cambodia and Prawit or Anutin become PM.

Nothing funny about General Rolex being PM.

On 8/21/2023 at 9:48 AM, Eric Loh said:

I doubt the new regime will risk an uprising as a result of a soft coup to have the military remained entrenched as PM and government. The risk of a dynasty caught up with widespread demonstrations that could go beyond anger against the military can't be discounted especially from the younger protesters. History have seen this kind of protests that uprooted the old political structure. I don't think the ultra conservatives would even dare to consider maintaining the old status quo. 

One of the constant themes used throughout politics and preached in the education system) in this country is "Thailand is different": "Thai democracy is different", the way in which government works is different ", and so on.

 

The new regime is going to be the old regime. After a lifetime of preaching, excusing and hearing that "Thailand is different " maybe they believe it.

 

Maybe they believe that their "forces" (police corrupt to the core) and Army ( couldn't fight sleep) will be adequate to keep them in power?