The Commerce Ministry of Thailand announced today that the country’s inflation rate has dipped for the first time in 25 months, primarily due to a drop in energy and food prices. This development is attributed to the government’s support measures.

 

The consumer price index (CPI) noted a 0.31% reduction in October, compared to the same period last year. This contrasted with a 0.3% year-on-year increase in the previous month. The data matched the forecasted 0.0% for October, as predicted in a Reuters poll.

 

Meanwhile, the core CPI for October escalated by 0.66% from the same period last year. Interestingly, the headline inflation remained below the central bank’s target range of 1% to 3% for six months in succession. The first ten months of the year saw the headline CPI rise by an average of 1.60% from the same period a year earlier, while the core CPI increased by 1.41%.

 

Despite these numbers, the ministry maintains its projection for the headline inflation ranging between 1.0% and 1.7% for this year. In an unforeseen move in September, the Bank of Thailand’s monetary policy committee escalated the key interest rate by a quarter point to 2.50%, marking the highest in the past decade. The committee justified this hike stating that they expect growth and inflation rate to surge in the coming year.

 

By Alex Morgan

Caption: Photo: glassmanwealth.com

 

Full story: The Thaiger 2023-11-06

 

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These official statistics do not really mean much to the average person, what we're concerned about is are the products and services that we are regularly buying and paying for leveling off in price? Or are they continuing to rise? So far I am seeing the latter, I will believe the report when prices level off or start dropping. 

Adjustable loan rates have spiked with the rise in interest at Bank of Thailand.

48% of the economy comprises grey income that is unreported and untaxed. Nobody knows what the true rate of inflation is because it can't be accurately measured.

19 minutes ago, Mike Lister said:

48% of the economy comprises grey income that is unreported and untaxed. Nobody knows what the true rate of inflation is because it can't be accurately measured.

I agree

But the gray market existed before also , so it affected the rate before as it affects it now. So if there is a change between the two admittedly faulty numbers . then the rate has changed. 

 

3 minutes ago, sirineou said:

I agree

But the gray market existed before also , so it affected the rate before as it affects it now. So if there is a change between the two admittedly faulty numbers . then the rate has changed. 

 

I agree that both halves of the economy, the known and the unknown parts, will likely have moved in tandem. The problem is, when inflation is measured it only uses data from 50% of the economy, price inflation in the other half might be 15% for all we know and judging by some of the quotes for cash in hand work that we've had recently, it probably is.

1 minute ago, Mike Lister said:

I agree that both halves of the economy, the known and the unknown parts, will likely have moved in tandem. The problem is, when inflation is measured it only uses data from 50% of the economy, price inflation in the other half might be 15% for all we know and judging by some of the quotes for cash in hand work that we've had recently, it probably is.

Sure , the true inflation rate is always suspect.

It also concerns the basket of goods, they use to determine the inflation rate, and the percentage value that is assigned for each

Inflation rates are so easily manipulated that they are meaningless to the average person. 

11 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

The Commerce Ministry of Thailand announced today that the country’s inflation rate has dipped for the first time in 25 months, primarily due to a drop in energy and food prices.

Can't say I've noticed that?

I saw them go up, and they're still up/

9 minutes ago, hotchilli said:

Can't say I've noticed that?

I saw them go up, and they're still up/

It is not that prices will ever go down. The tare of inflation is the rate by which thet go up,

They are now going up by a slower rate , but still going up

Not seeing any indication of price reductions in the supermarkets. Everytime I notice a price change it is always up, and seemingly beyond official inflation rate. Been this way for several years now.

1 hour ago, spidermike007 said:

hese official statistics do not really mean much to the average person, what we're concerned about is are the products and services that we are regularly buying and paying for leveling off in price? Or are they continuing to rise? So far I am seeing the latter, I will believe the report when prices level off or start dropping. 

THese reports are not meant for people who have fled 10,000 miles to seek and live like a refuge in a foreign land, possibly using a "wify visa", at the mercy of IOs.

Why doesn't the government publish exactly how they calculate this rate?  And are the components exactly the same as prior reports? There is incredible inflation in Thailand and deflation is needed to get prices back to where they were originally.

The price of brunch at PTT here in Prasat - eg larb & papaya salad - hasn't changed in the 6.5 years we've been living here.

1 hour ago, koolkarl said:

Why doesn't the government publish exactly how they calculate this rate?  And are the components exactly the same as prior reports? There is incredible inflation in Thailand and deflation is needed to get prices back to where they were originally.

I think they have a basket of goods and monitor that.

 

Its easy to be manipulated since they can just go around somewhere else to find the cheapest price of an item and plug that into their basket.

 

Voila magic inflation goes down.

Edited November 7, 20232 yr by freeworld

13 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

primarily due to a drop in energy and food prices.

 

Given that the government is subsidizing, and/or setting price caps, electricity, diesel fuel, and a basket of 51 items (extended through June 2024), it is not surprising that some measures of inflation are level or declining.

 

 

Thailand cabinet extends control on price of 51 goods and services by another year

The list covers essential items for daily use such as food; consumer products; farm products like fertilisers, pesticides; construction materials; paper; petroleum; and medicines.

 

https://asianews.network/thailand-cabinet-extends-control-on-price-of-51-goods-and-services-by-another-year/

 

 

 

Bit of a fight now on sugar pricing fixing...

 

https://thethaiger.com/news/business/sugar-prices-clampdown-thai-government-enforces-caps-amid-production-cost-hike

 

 

1 hour ago, koolkarl said:

Why doesn't the government publish exactly how they calculate this rate?  And are the components exactly the same as prior reports? There is incredible inflation in Thailand and deflation is needed to get prices back to where they were originally.

Here ya go, have at it:

 

https://www.bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap08k.pdf

 

https://www.bot.or.th/content/dam/bot/documents/th/research-and-publications/seminars/symposium/2543/2543paper4.pdf

 

Be warned, there'll be a quiz later.

Edited November 7, 20232 yr by Mike Lister

did they hire the same people that calculate the USA's Soc Sec COLA?