The Investing Year Ahead

[Yellowtail]

On 6/8/2024 at 10:16 PM, KhunHeineken said:

If that's the case, why the need to "liquidate?"  Your word, not mine.  If it's not much, leave it here.  Walk away.  Right? 

 

As for the rest of your post, no, I am not lying.  It's in your posts. 

I do not need to liquidate, and I never said that I needed to liquidate, yet you falsely claim I need to liquidate, why? 

 

I am not heavily invested in Thailand, nor have I ever said as much, yet you falsely claim I am heavily invested in Thailand, why? 

 

What are you making things up about me?

[Yellowtail]

13 hours ago, KhunHeineken said:

So, the pig farm was such a great investment you didn't bother getting a work permit.

 

Yes, back on topic. 

 

A foreigner should never use the words "investment" and "Thailand" the same sentence.  Eg.  your pig farm. 

 

Why should "A foreigner should never use the words "investment" and "Thailand" the same sentence." ? 

[KhunHeineken]

5 hours ago, Yellowtail said:

I do not need to liquidate, and I never said that I needed to liquidate, yet you falsely claim I need to liquidate, why? 

I never said you needed to liquidate. 

 

I said you have invested in Thailand, so now you need to defend the position you took when you invested. 

 

Here are your words:

 

"I have a wife and son in Thailand, and even if I did not, any investment I might have here could be liquidated in the event I wanted to leave."

 

Simply pointing out, who is going to be the market to "liquidate" to?  It would have to be a fire sale and you will take on losses. 

 

5 hours ago, Yellowtail said:

I am not heavily invested in Thailand,

With a wife and son in Thailand, clearly, you are already heavily invested. 

 

 

[Yellowtail]

2 minutes ago, KhunHeineken said:

I never said you needed to liquidate. 

 

I said you have invested in Thailand, so now you need to defend the position you took when you invested. 

 

Here are your words:

 

"I have a wife and son in Thailand, and even if I did not, any investment I might have here could be liquidated in the event I wanted to leave."

 

Simply pointing out, who is going to be the market to "liquidate" to?  It would have to be a fire sale and you will take on losses. 

 

With a wife and son in Thailand, clearly, you are already heavily invested. 

 

 

I'm sorry, what I meant to say was: 

 

I do not need to liquidate, and I never said that I needed to liquidate, yet you falsely claimed that I said I needed to liquidate.  

 

I am not heavily invested in Thailand, nor have I ever said as much, yet you falsely claim I am heavily invested in Thailand. 

 

Again, why are you making things up about me?

[KhunHeineken]

5 hours ago, Yellowtail said:

 

Why should "A foreigner should never use the words "investment" and "Thailand" the same sentence." ? 

Many reasons, ranging from no reasonable pathway to permanent residency and / or citizenship, to foreign ownership of property laws here, to an unstable government etc etc etc etc. 

 

A simple rule of investing is diversification.  Not putting all your eggs in one basket, so to speak. 

 

Selling up in the west, and moving one's life savings to Thailand is unwise, in my opinion, particularly as you don't even have a "right" to live in Thailand. 

[Presnock]

On 1/2/2024 at 8:39 AM, Mike Lister said:

Just like many others, I'm trying to decide what my investment strategy should be for the year and was trying to consider the pluses and minuses of what will happen to the US S&P. I invest globally but US Equities Markets represent over 50% of the Investable World and contagion from those markets will spread.

 

The question I ask is, what are the key pluses and minuses that will cause the US S&P to climb or fall, during 2024, below is a brain dump to get started:

 

Pro’s

 

Falling interest rates mean consumers will switch out of Services and into Goods, where the S&P is heavy, even if GDP is not.

 

Valuations remain high but improved operating efficiencies could mean that profits remain high.

 

A weaker USD should help promote exports and increase demand, AS LONG AS importing economies are able to buy.

 

Note: the election outcome is potentially negative or positive, based on its outcome so is SPECIFICALLY EXCLUDED.

 

Con’s

 

The risk of a credit bubble weighs heavily, Blackrock exited US markets completely as a result

 

The (Bond Market) Yield Curve is inverted. The 10 year and 3 month spread is a key recession indicator, it represents the relationship between long-term bonds and what’s often considered the risk-free interest rate. In late October, the 10 year-3 month spread turned negative for the first time since February 2020. It is now almost twice as negative as the 10-2 year spread.

get.ycharts.com/resources/blog/inverted-yield-curve-what-it-means-and-how-to-navigate-it/#:~:text=An%20inverted%20yield%20curve%20is,more%20than%20shorter%2Dterm%20ones.

Markets are over valued, using historically averages, by between 32% and 50%

www.estimite.com/post/is-the-us-stock-market-overvalued/

 

Companies that must refinance face higher financing costs

 

Excitement over AI may be creating a bubble

 

Economists are split between a mild recession and mild growth in 2024.

 

The war against inflation hasn’t been won yet and the need to reduce rates to stimulate economies is potentially  at odds with winning that war.

www.imf.org/external/datamapper/PCPIPCH@WEO/ECU

 

Government debt is the highest it’s ever been, USD 34 trillion, and climbing faster than it ever has. Any action to reduce the debt such as government closure, reduced services might impact spending and markets.

 

www.pgpf.org/national-debt-

clock#:~:text=The%20%2433%20trillion%20gross%20federal,that%20it%20owes%20to%20itself.

Climate risk is increasing which will result in higher insurance company payouts, loss of productive, business disruption and higher costs and losses.

 

Global war risks have increased in the ME and Ukraine which have to potential to increase the US debt load.

 

Market gains are being driven by only seven giant companies rather than the broader market. In the year ending mid 2022, S&P gains were over 15% but if FANG stocks were removed, the gain falls to only 6%. The picture in the last few months is likely to be even more extreme hence indices are distorted.
 

 

Mike, glad it's your choice...gonna be a roller coaster ride for sure over at least the next 6 months...good luck!

[Yellowtail]

8 minutes ago, KhunHeineken said:

Many reasons, ranging from no reasonable pathway to permanent residency and / or citizenship, to foreign ownership of property laws here, to an unstable government etc etc etc etc. 

Yet you keep doing it. 

8 minutes ago, KhunHeineken said:

A simple rule of investing is diversification.  Not putting all your eggs in one basket, so to speak. 

How is investing in Thailand not diversification? How is investing in Thailand putting all one's eggs in one basket, so to speak? 

8 minutes ago, KhunHeineken said:

Selling up in the west, and moving one's life savings to Thailand is unwise, in my opinion, particularly as you don't even have a "right" to live in Thailand. 

I agree that moving one's life savings to Thailand would be unwise, I certainly never would. 

 

But assuming one is not moving their life savings to Thailand, what makes some investment in Thailand such a bad idea? Most everyone has to "invest" at least the 400 or 800K to maintain a visa. 

[swissie]

11 hours ago, Yellowtail said:

I'm sorry, what I meant to say was: 

 

I do not need to liquidate, and I never said that I needed to liquidate, yet you falsely claimed that I said I needed to liquidate.  

 

I am not heavily invested in Thailand, nor have I ever said as much, yet you falsely claim I am heavily invested in Thailand. 

 

Again, why are you making things up about me?

Be careful YT. Poster KH has clairvoyant capabilities. Among other things he "knows" that my Thai Hog Operation could not possibly have been successful. He knows more about you and me than we do.

 

[swissie]

11 hours ago, KhunHeineken said:

Many reasons, ranging from no reasonable pathway to permanent residency and / or citizenship, to foreign ownership of property laws here, to an unstable government etc etc etc etc. 

 

A simple rule of investing is diversification.  Not putting all your eggs in one basket, so to speak. 

 

Selling up in the west, and moving one's life savings to Thailand is unwise, in my opinion, particularly as you don't even have a "right" to live in Thailand. 

I fully agree. What is most disturbing to me, is the "legal uncertainty". Depending on Amphoe, the laws made in Bangkok can and will be interpreted individually by local chieftains. Just too much "brown envelope" economy.

But lo and behold, a Farang having bought his Condo in Pattaya some 20 years ago did quite well. During Pattayas heydays, even Farang Bar Owners made money.

[Yellowtail]

17 hours ago, swissie said:

I fully agree. What is most disturbing to me, is the "legal uncertainty". Depending on Amphoe, the laws made in Bangkok can and will be interpreted individually by local chieftains. Just too much "brown envelope" economy.

But lo and behold, a Farang having bought his Condo in Pattaya some 20 years ago did quite well. During Pattayas heydays, even Farang Bar Owners made money.

Plenty of people make money here. 

[Yellowtail]

17 hours ago, swissie said:

Be careful YT. Poster KH has clairvoyant capabilities. Among other things he "knows" that my Thai Hog Operation could not possibly have been successful. He knows more about you and me than we do.

 

Not sure who you are talking about, but any buffoon can make stuff up. 

[KhunHeineken]

On 6/10/2024 at 5:37 AM, Yellowtail said:

Yet you keep doing it.

I've made very little investment in Thailand. 

 

Motorcycle and decent home entertainment center is about it. 

 

I use an agent for the extension because I won't even put 800k into Thailand.  

 

On 6/10/2024 at 5:37 AM, Yellowtail said:

How is investing in Thailand not diversification? How is investing in Thailand putting all one's eggs in one basket, so to speak? 

Many move their life savings to Thailand, simply because they live in Thailand.  Unwise, in my opinion. 

 

Thailand represents a risky investment for foreigners.  Therefore, I don't classify Thailand as a place one should use for diversification. 

 

On 6/10/2024 at 5:37 AM, Yellowtail said:

I agree that moving one's life savings to Thailand would be unwise, I certainly never would. 

Very wise.

 

On 6/10/2024 at 5:37 AM, Yellowtail said:

But assuming one is not moving their life savings to Thailand, what makes some investment in Thailand such a bad idea? Most everyone has to "invest" at least the 400 or 800K to maintain a visa. 

If you wouldn't move your life savings to Thailand, why would you move any money for ANY type of investment?  Serious question. 

 

Both your life savings and a lesser amount would be high risk, or not worth it. 

 

Then, the same question backwards, if you have the confidence to move some money to Thailand to invest, why not move your life savings? 

 

I have addressed the 800k.  I haven't even moved that to Thailand.  Why would I, when the 800k makes more money for me invested in my home country than what the "agent" costs me for the extension, and way more than a Thai bank? 

 

You have asked what investments are "bad ideas?"  Can you name a few "good idea" investments?

 

Some guys made money in the 80's from property here, but that's decades ago.  

 

 

[KhunHeineken]

18 hours ago, swissie said:

Be careful YT. Poster KH has clairvoyant capabilities. Among other things he "knows" that my Thai Hog Operation could not possibly have been successful. He knows more about you and me than we do.

 

If your Thai hog operation was successful, why did you stop it?  Why didn't you expand it? 

[KhunHeineken]

18 hours ago, swissie said:

I fully agree. What is most disturbing to me, is the "legal uncertainty". Depending on Amphoe, the laws made in Bangkok can and will be interpreted individually by local chieftains. Just too much "brown envelope" economy.

But lo and behold, a Farang having bought his Condo in Pattaya some 20 years ago did quite well. During Pattayas heydays, even Farang Bar Owners made money.

Has said condo in Pattaya been sold?  There are thousands of properties for sale in Pattaya.  There's an oversupply of property. 

 

What about all the bar closures, before and since covid?  If bars are so profitable, why so many closures? 

 

Are you suggesting buying a condo in Pattaya is a good investment?

 

Are you suggesting buying a bar in Pattaya is a good investment? 

[KhunHeineken]

48 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

Plenty of people make money here. 

Can you give some examples of the industries?

 

When you say "make money" perhaps you can qualify and also quantify.  How much money down for how much return? 

[KhunHeineken]

51 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

Not sure who you are talking about, but any buffoon can make stuff up. 

Rather than personally attack me, how about post some things that you say are a good investment in Thailand, and roughly what return/s are involved? 

[Yellowtail]

21 minutes ago, KhunHeineken said:

Rather than personally attack me, how about post some things that you say are a good investment in Thailand, and roughly what return/s are involved? 

I was not talking about you. 

 

Oh, and you can't stand the risk. Better you stick with fixed accounts in your home country. 

 

Edited June 11 by Yellowtail
PS

[Yellowtail]

18 minutes ago, KhunHeineken said:

I've made very little investment in Thailand. 

 

Motorcycle and decent home entertainment center is about it. 

 

I use an agent for the extension because I won't even put 800k into Thailand.  

You just did it again. You said: "A foreigner should never use the words "investment" and "Thailand" the same sentence.", yet you keep doing it. 

 

All the really smart rich people seem to use agents. 

18 minutes ago, KhunHeineken said:

Many move their life savings to Thailand, simply because they live in Thailand.  Unwise, in my opinion. 

Yeah, I do not know anyone that has. 

18 minutes ago, KhunHeineken said:

Thailand represents a risky investment for foreigners.  Therefore, I don't classify Thailand as a place one should use for diversification. 

How is it risky? It's been pretty good to me. What counties do you use for diversification? 

18 minutes ago, KhunHeineken said:

 

Very wise.

 

If you wouldn't move your life savings to Thailand, why would you move any money for ANY type of investment?  Serious question. 

I don't like putting all my eggs in one basket. 

18 minutes ago, KhunHeineken said:

Both your life savings and a lesser amount would be high risk, or not worth it. 

How is it high risk? 

18 minutes ago, KhunHeineken said:

Then, the same question backwards, if you have the confidence to move some money to Thailand to invest, why not move your life savings? 

I don't like putting all my eggs in one basket. 

18 minutes ago, KhunHeineken said:

I have addressed the 800k.  I haven't even moved that to Thailand.  Why would I, when the 800k makes more money for me invested in my home country than what the "agent" costs me for the extension, and way more than a Thai bank? 

That was not the case for me when I ran the numbers, but it's been a few years, and I like having cash in county. 

18 minutes ago, KhunHeineken said:

You have asked what investments are "bad ideas?"  Can you name a few "good idea" investments?

No, what I asked was: "...what makes some investment in Thailand such a bad idea?". 

18 minutes ago, KhunHeineken said:

Some guys made money in the 80's from property here, but that's decades ago.  

Some guys are making money on property here today. 

 

The HVAC manufacturing business I started here in 2000 is still doing okay. 

[KhunHeineken]

17 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

I was not talking about you. 

 

Oh, and you can't stand the risk. Better you stick with fixed accounts in your home country. 

 

Deflection. 

 

Fail. 

[Yellowtail]

25 minutes ago, KhunHeineken said:

Deflection. 

 

Fail. 

Weak

[KhunHeineken]

3 hours ago, Yellowtail said:

Weak

Exposed.  

[KhunHeineken]

3 hours ago, Yellowtail said:

You just did it again. You said: "A foreigner should never use the words "investment" and "Thailand" the same sentence.", yet you keep doing it. 

 

All the really smart rich people seem to use agents. 

Is English your first language?

 

3 hours ago, Yellowtail said:

Yeah, I do not know anyone that has. 

Yes, you have invested in Thailand. 

 

3 hours ago, Yellowtail said:

How is it risky?

Already answered.

 

3 hours ago, Yellowtail said:

I don't like putting all my eggs in one basket. 

Why put even one egg in a basket that you wouldn't put all your eggs in? 

 

Asked this before.  No reply.

 

3 hours ago, Yellowtail said:

That was not the case for me when I ran the numbers, but it's been a few years, and I like having cash in county. 

Obviously, that's why you are defending your position. 

 

Good Luck. 

 

3 hours ago, Yellowtail said:

No, what I asked was: "...what makes some investment in Thailand such a bad idea?". 

And I asked, tell me what make some investments in Thailand a good idea?

 

4 hours ago, Yellowtail said:

Some guys are making money on property here today. 

Have you seen the amount of properties for sale here?  Massive oversupply. 

 

4 hours ago, Yellowtail said:

The HVAC manufacturing business I started here in 2000 is still doing okay. 

[Yellowtail]

15 hours ago, KhunHeineken said:

Is English your first language?

No. Why, what do you not understand? 

15 hours ago, KhunHeineken said:

Yes, you have invested in Thailand. 

You stated: "Many move their life savings to Thailand, simply because they live in Thailand.  Unwise, in my opinion." to which I responded with: "Yeah, I do not know anyone that has." which means you are not able formulate a coherent response. 

 

And yes, you have invested in Thailand as well. 

15 hours ago, KhunHeineken said:

Already answered.

Saying something is risky over and over is not really the same as explaining how it is risky. Every investment has risk. 

15 hours ago, KhunHeineken said:

Why put even one egg in a basket that you wouldn't put all your eggs in? 

 

Asked this before.  No reply.

And I answered before. 

15 hours ago, KhunHeineken said:

Obviously, that's why you are defending your position. 

 

Good Luck. 

My position is that there is nothing terribly wrong with investing in Thailand. So far, my position has not needed defending.

15 hours ago, KhunHeineken said:

 

And I asked, tell me what make some investments in Thailand a good idea?

Says the guy that is never able to actually answer a question. 

 

I think manufacturing in Thailand is a generally a good investment if you know the product and market, the company we started here in 2020 is still doing fine, and it treated me quite well.

 

A lot of people have invested in gold here and done okay. 

15 hours ago, KhunHeineken said:

Have you seen the amount of properties for sale here?  Massive oversupply. 

 

I have not advocated anyone buy property here, but both of the properties we have turned out okay. Still kicking myself for not buying a downtown property I had a chance at. I do take comfort in that the wife talked me out of it....

 

Again, given your fear of risk, you are better off sticking to fixed accounts in your home country that have treated you so well. 

 

 

[swissie]

On 6/11/2024 at 12:52 PM, KhunHeineken said:

If your Thai hog operation was successful, why did you stop it?  Why didn't you expand it? 

As mentioned, work permit issues arose.

[swissie]

On 6/11/2024 at 12:55 PM, KhunHeineken said:

Has said condo in Pattaya been sold?  There are thousands of properties for sale in Pattaya.  There's an oversupply of property. 

 

What about all the bar closures, before and since covid?  If bars are so profitable, why so many closures? 

 

Are you suggesting buying a condo in Pattaya is a good investment?

 

Are you suggesting buying a bar in Pattaya is a good investment? 

Has said condo in Pattaya been sold?  There are thousands of properties for sale in Pattaya.  There's an oversupply of property. Answer: Now the Chinese provide a "price floor".

What about all the bar closures, before and since covid?  If bars are so profitable, why so many closures? Answer: I said "in Pattayas heydays". Long gone.

Are you suggesting buying a condo in Pattaya is a good investment? Answer: I said "those that bought 20 years ago".

Are you suggesting buying a bar in Pattaya is a good investment? Answer: See comment above.

[Mike Lister]

Two headlines from Bloomberg today, says it all:

 

Global Traders Flood American Markets in Search for Safety

 

Foreign Investors Have Been Propping Up US Bond Market This Year

[swissie]

14 hours ago, Mike Lister said:

Two headlines from Bloomberg today, says it all:

 

Global Traders Flood American Markets in Search for Safety

 

Foreign Investors Have Been Propping Up US Bond Market This Year

I read several international newpapers daily (online). Financial news, but I also try to get "a feeling" how "the mood" of the general population is.

In my home country I am not shy to ask Taxi Drivers, Restaurant Employees, Cleaning Ladies as to how they see their personal future down the road.

Generally, I notice a somewhat "somber" undertone. Something like: "The problems of the world are incrasing left and right" but mostly " For decades things went quite well, this can't go on forever".

Not surprising, the need for "safety" is on the increase. But can the US  (once more) serve as the "safe harbor" for people and their money? That  remains to be seen.

If the US is no more available as a "safe harbor", who is? Eastern Timbuktu?

[Mike Lister]

3 hours ago, swissie said:

I read several international newpapers daily (online). Financial news, but I also try to get "a feeling" how "the mood" of the general population is.

In my home country I am not shy to ask Taxi Drivers, Restaurant Employees, Cleaning Ladies as to how they see their personal future down the road.

Generally, I notice a somewhat "somber" undertone. Something like: "The problems of the world are incrasing left and right" but mostly " For decades things went quite well, this can't go on forever".

Not surprising, the need for "safety" is on the increase. But can the US  (once more) serve as the "safe harbor" for people and their money? That  remains to be seen.

If the US is no more available as a "safe harbor", who is? Eastern Timbuktu?

 

Safety is a relative term, just because A is safer than B doesn't mean that A is actually safe. That's where I think we are in respect of markets and it's also where I think we always were.

 

The perception that problems are increasing, is in itself dangerous. The more information you look for about the state of play and the future, the more negative views you'll find. That doesn't mean things are getting worse, it only means that more people are making their views known and have the means to make their voices heard. I like to try to restrict my inbound information flows to a small number of reliable and trusted sources.

 

I find myself in recent times, paying much more attention to downside risk and what if scenarios'. That doesn't mean downside risk has necessarily increased, it means that previously I had become very complacent about that risk. My new super duper, better and safer than ever, asset allocation schedule, acknowledges for the first time in a long time that I now have to pay full attention to metrics and key ratio's such as Price Book/Sales, Sharpe and Beta's and to dial back my definition of what is a good return. 

 

[Mike Lister]

As an afterthought to the above, I'm now carrying 10% of Money Market funds and a further 20% of bond funds, as downside protection, those are steps I never felt I needed three of five years ago. I've also reduced my mid cap holdings to 15% and small caps to 5%, a move aimed at greater certainty. And whilst the investing world seems to think that the USA is the only game in town globally, at current price levels, I refuse to go over 45% of equities invested, even if that means holding under or non performing assets. 

[swissie]

On 6/16/2024 at 3:20 AM, Mike Lister said:

As an afterthought to the above, I'm now carrying 10% of Money Market funds and a further 20% of bond funds, as downside protection, those are steps I never felt I needed three of five years ago. I've also reduced my mid cap holdings to 15% and small caps to 5%, a move aimed at greater certainty. And whilst the investing world seems to think that the USA is the only game in town globally, at current price levels, I refuse to go over 45% of equities invested, even if that means holding under or non performing assets. 

"The USA is the only game in town globally".

So it seems. Much optimism priced in. Insurance anyone? Amazingly PUT OPTIONS are cheap, especially the ones that are "out of the money". Relatively cheap downside protection available (currently).