Mike Lister Posted February 2 Author Share Posted February 2 23 hours ago, Startmeup said: Whats the current annual yield on this, Must check it out. What is the yield in the money markets? I am >30% cash right now and I get 4.83% on that through IB in USD cash account. I often take short term bets when I see an opportunity so being liquid is a factor for me but would be willing to tie some up if I got >6-8%. Latam is super cheap, Brazil and Columbia gave me most of my returns the last 12-18 months. There is some double digit yielding companies (dividends + buybacks) trading on <4 PE ratios with modest earnings assumptions that are very solid companies. Money market yields depend on the currency, they are all different. Long term bond Index funds like the VG Agg are good in a falling interest rate environment but you have to get in and out at the right time. My tip is to either, buy a global tracker such as HSBC FTSE All World, buy and forget, or, find a decent Fund Manager whose got a good track record and buy his global equities fund, sit back and let him do the work. Either way, throwing darts at a list of 10,000 companies and hoping you'll hit a winner is far worse than Vegas odds. My 10 cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Startmeup Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 38 minutes ago, Mike Lister said: Money market yields depend on the currency, they are all different. Long term bond Index funds like the VG Agg are good in a falling interest rate environment but you have to get in and out at the right time. My tip is to either, buy a global tracker such as HSBC FTSE All World, buy and forget, or, find a decent Fund Manager whose got a good track record and buy his global equities fund, sit back and let him do the work. Either way, throwing darts at a list of 10,000 companies and hoping you'll hit a winner is far worse than Vegas odds. My 10 cents. I prefer to pick my own stocks and manage my portfolio myself right now. Will likely transition to a fund if the fund I want to invest in opens to new capital again in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Lister Posted February 8 Author Share Posted February 8 The S&P is set for a correction I think, how deep is uncertain. But what is certain is that all good things come to an end. US earnings are up 4.4%, not bad at all. China is still looking messy but there's lots of good buying opportunities to be had. I see India has now surpassed the HK exchange as the fourth largest, it's the way of the future I imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellowtail Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 6 minutes ago, Mike Lister said: The S&P is set for a correction I think, how deep is uncertain. But what is certain is that all good things come to an end. US earnings are up 4.4%, not bad at all. China is still looking messy but there's lots of good buying opportunities to be had. I see India has now surpassed the HK exchange as the fourth largest, it's the way of the future I imagine. I think you're right about India. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swissie Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 On 2/1/2024 at 4:24 PM, swissie said: I am starting to roll on the floor with convultions. Starting to resemble the Dutch "Tulip Mania" with a P/E of 116. "Tops" what services they provide today. But nothing what a hungry competition can not also achieve over time. Talking about NVIDIA: According to a recent Bank of America study, the value of NVIDIA is now equivalent of ALL THE STOCKS TRADED ON THE HONG KONG STOCK EXCHANGE !!! Welcome to the "Tulip Mania" of 2024. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellowtail Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 10 hours ago, swissie said: Talking about NVIDIA: According to a recent Bank of America study, the value of NVIDIA is now equivalent of ALL THE STOCKS TRADED ON THE HONG KONG STOCK EXCHANGE !!! Welcome to the "Tulip Mania" of 2024. A lot of people got rich on Tulips Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
watgate Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 More then 80% of the trading in the stock market is being done by huge sophisticated companies using technology which can execute 90,000 stock trades a second. They literally can buy and sell and work on spreads in pennies per trade. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellowtail Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 8 minutes ago, watgate said: More then 80% of the trading in the stock market is being done by huge sophisticated companies using technology which can execute 90,000 stock trades a second. They literally can buy and sell and work on spreads in pennies per trade. And? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellowtail Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 At 90,000 a second, all of an average day's trades on the NYSE would be done in under half a minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paddypower Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 23 hours ago, watgate said: More then 80% of the trading in the stock market is being done by huge sophisticated companies using technology which can execute 90,000 stock trades a second. They literally can buy and sell and work on spreads in pennies per trade. I agree. A good example is quantitative analysis, invented by Bob Mercer. His billions (which he used to finance Trump's win, right wing media & the Brexit disaster) comes from secret computer science/speech translation programs, using pattern recognition). In short, these practitioners of 'the dark arts' can discover obscure patters in the financial markets and make enormous fortunes (up to 80% per year) from nothing. What I call 'Smoke and Mirrors' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paddypower Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/12/2024 at 9:17 AM, Yellowtail said: And? the odds are stacked against you - you might as well go to Las Vegas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Lister Posted February 13 Author Share Posted February 13 3 minutes ago, paddypower said: the odds are stacked against you - you might as well go to Las Vegas. No, silly! Just because others win big, doesn't mean that some can't win to a lesser degree. Most non-professional investors manage to turn a profit most years, as long as it's more than inflation it was worthwhile having, it was more than inflation and the bank rate, it was definitely a win. Like many others, I've seen return in excess of 20% in the past decade plus it's fun earning it also. In Vegas the odds are stacked against you, over time you will lose, not so on equities markets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellowtail Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 7 minutes ago, paddypower said: the odds are stacked against you - you might as well go to Las Vegas. I lived in Vegas back in the '70s, the market has been much better for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellowtail Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, Mike Lister said: No, silly! Just because others win big, doesn't mean that some can't win to a lesser degree. Most non-professional investors manage to turn a profit most years, as long as it's more than inflation it was worthwhile having, it was more than inflation and the bank rate, it was definitely a win. Like many others, I've seen return in excess of 20% in the past decade plus it's fun earning it also. In Vegas the odds are stacked against you, over time you will lose, not so on equities markets. And in Vegas, the odds are constant, and (almost) always negative. With investments, the odds are variable, and (almost) always positive, at least in the long term. I think dude just had no response when asked about his post, he just threw that out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1FinickyOne Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 1/2/2024 at 9:38 AM, Mike Lister said: That's not the question I'm asking! I'm asking what are the pro's and con's that will effect the performance of the S&P this year, which covers only a variable portion of my investment portfolio. profits, trends and interest rates... mostly interest rates - and it is an election year... I went heavy [for me] back into the market the end of October... lucky timing helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thailand J Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 (edited) US tech sector is the mother lode. Make sure you have some exposure in your portfolio. Probably I have overloaded but the risk is rewarded. I cant resist NVIDIA, bought 440 sh at $598/sh 3 weeks ago, it's up 20% closed at $720. Edited February 13 by Thailand J Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GarryP Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 30 minutes ago, Thailand J said: US tech sector is the mother lode. Make sure you have some exposure in your portfolio. Probably I have overloaded but the risk is rewarded. I cant resist NVIDIA, bought 440 sh at $598/sh 3 weeks ago, it's up 20% closed at $720. Wish I had that amount of money to invest. I'll just ride the tech wave with my Innotech mutual fund. Up 112.89%, but that is over about 7 years. Also up 15% on India over 4 months. But don't ask me about China, I'm down 51%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
noobexpat Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 51 minutes ago, Thailand J said: US tech sector is the mother lode. Make sure you have some exposure in your portfolio. Probably I have overloaded but the risk is rewarded. I cant resist NVIDIA, bought 440 sh at $598/sh 3 weeks ago, it's up 20% closed at $720. I would be prematurely aging the moment i pressed the enter key! Good luck. I don't buy single stocks, i like being the tortoise investor. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Lister Posted February 13 Author Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, noobexpat said: I would be prematurely aging the moment i pressed the enter key! Good luck. I don't buy single stocks, i like being the tortoise investor. You me both! Slowly slowly catchee monkey. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thailand J Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 My best performing investment in in MSFT, up 400% in about 9 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Lister Posted February 13 Author Share Posted February 13 That's much more ambitious than anything I have done, I usually count on doubling my investment every five years which leaves me happy and in the lower risk zone. But much of that is an age factor, if I was in my twenties I might play with tech. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thailand J Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Learn to invest with the patience of a tiger. identify the mother lode, buy a few index funds, hold for years. NOt like a curious cat, distracted by anything shinny all over the world. That's was how I manage accounts but NVIDIA is too "shinny". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
noobexpat Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 4 minutes ago, Thailand J said: My best performing investment in in MSFT, up 400% in about 9 years. Impressive!! ...the stress would kill me 55 I don't have the personality for this approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thailand J Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 (edited) 23 minutes ago, noobexpat said: Impressive!! ...the stress would kill me 55 I don't have the personality for this approach. You are right, it can be nerve wrecking when the market is down. The biggest danger is panic selling , which has not happened to me yet 55. Edited February 13 by Thailand J 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Lister Posted February 17 Author Share Posted February 17 ‘Peak Euphoria’ Warning Blares as Stress Vanishes on Wall Street https://www.bloomberg.com/asia I like that term, peak euphoria, it must be time to hit the "sell all" button. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Lister Posted February 17 Author Share Posted February 17 Interesting article (no pictures) https://www.thebalancemoney.com/us-gdp-by-year-3305543 Year Nominal GDP (trillions) Real GDP (trillions) GDP Growth Rate Events Affecting GDP 1929 $0.105 $1.109 NA Depression began 1930 $0.092 $1.015 -8.5% Smoot-Hawley 1931 $0.077 $0.950 -6.4% Dust Bowl 1932 $0.060 $0.828 -12.9% Hoover tax hikes 1933 $0.057 $0.817 -1.2% New Deal 1934 $0.067 $0.906 10.8% U.S. debt rose 1935 $0.074 $0.986 8.9% Social Security 1936 $0.085 $1.113 12.9% FDR tax hikes 1937 $0.093 $1.170 5.1% Depression returned 1938 $0.087 $1.132 -3.3% Depression ended 1939 $0.093 $1.222 8.0% WWII, Dust Bowl ended 1940 $0.103 $1.330 8.8% Defense increased 1941 $0.129 $1.566 17.7% Pearl Harbor 1942 $0.166 $1.862 18.9% 1943 $0.203 $2.178 17.0% Defense spending tripled 1944 $0.224 $2.352 8.0% Bretton Woods 1945 $0.228 $2.329 -1.0% WWII ended, recession 1946 $0.228 $2.058 -11.6% Truman budget cuts 1947 $0.250 $2.035 -1.1% Cold War began 1948 $0.275 $2.119 4.1% Recession 1949 $0.273 $2.107 -0.6% NATO, Fair Deal 1950 $0.300 $2.290 8.7% Korean War 1951 $0.347 $2.474 8.0% 1952 $0.367 $2.575 4.1% 1953 $0.389 $2.696 4.7% War ended, recession 1954 $0.391 $2.680 -0.6% Dow returned to 1929 high 1955 $0.426 $2.871 7.1% 1956 $0.449 $2.932 2.1% 1957 $0.474 $2.994 2.1% Recession 1958 $0.481 $2.972 -0.7% Recession ended 1959 $0.522 $3.178 6.9% Fed raised rates 1960 $0.542 $3.260 2.6% Recession 1961 $0.562 $3.344 2.6% JFK ended recession 1962 $0.604 $3.548 6.1% 1963 $0.638 $3.703 4.4% 1964 $0.685 $3.916 5.8% LBJ's Medicare, Medicaid 1965 $0.742 $4.171 6.5% 1966 $0.813 $4.446 6.6% Vietnam War 1967 $0.860 $4.568 2.7% 1968 $0.941 $4.792 4.9% Moon landing 1969 $1.018 $4.942 3.1% Nixon took office 1970 $1.073 $4.951 0.2% Recession 1971 $1.165 $5.114 3.3% Wage-price controls 1972 $1.279 $5.383 5.3% Stagflation 1973 $1.425 $5.687 5.6% End of gold standard 1974 $1.545 $5.657 -0.5% Watergate 1975 $1.685 $5.645 -0.2% Recession ended 1976 $1.873 $5.949 5.4% Fed lowered rates 1977 $2.082 $6.224 4.6% 1978 $2.352 $6.569 5.5% Fed's 20% rate hike ended inflation 1979 $2.627 $6.777 3.2% Recession 1980 $2.857 $6.759 -0.3% 1981 $3.207 $6.931 2.5% Reagan tax cuts 1982 $3.344 $6.806 -1.8% Recession ended 1983 $3.634 $7.118 4.6% Tax hike and defense spending 1984 $4.038 $7.633 7.2% 1985 $4.339 $7.951 4.2% 1986 $4.580 $8.226 3.5% Tax cut 1987 $4.855 $8.511 3.5% Black Monday 1988 $5.236 $8.867 4.2% Fed raised rates 1989 $5.642 $9.192 3.7% S&L Crisis 1990 $5.963 $9.366 1.9% Recession 1991 $6.158 $9.355 -0.1% 1992 $6.520 $9.685 3.5% NAFTA drafted 1993 $6.859 $9.952 2.8% Balanced Budget Act 1994 $7.287 $10.352 4.0% 1995 $7.640 $10.630 2.7% Fed raised rates 1996 $8.073 $11.031 3.8% Welfare reform 1997 $8.578 $11.522 4.4% 1998 $9.063 $12.038 4.5% LTCM crisis 1999 $9.631 $12.611 4.8% Repeal of Glass-Steagall 2000 $10.252 $13.131 4.1% Tech bubble burst 2001 $10.582 $13.262 1.0% 9/11 attacks 2002 $10.936 $13.493 1.7% War on Terror 2003 $11.458 $13.879 2.9% Iraq War, JGTRRA 2004 $12.214 $14.406 3.8% 2005 $13.037 $14.913 3.5% Katrina, Bankruptcy Act 2006 $13.815 $15.338 2.9% Fed raised rates 2007 $14.452 $15.626 1.9% Bank crisis 2008 $14.713 $15.605 -0.1% Financial Crisis 2009 $14.449 $15.209 -2.5% Stimulus Act 2010 $14.992 $15.599 2.6% ACA, Dodd-Frank 2011 $15.543 $15.841 1.6% Japan earthquake 2012 $16.197 $16.197 2.2% Fiscal cliff 2013 $16.785 $16.495 1.8% Sequestration 2014 $17.527 $16.912 2.5% QE ends 2015 $18.238 $17.432 3.1% TPP, Iran deal 2016 $18.745 $17.731 1.7% Presidential race 2017 $19.543 $18.144 2.3% Tax Cuts & Jobs Act (TCJA) 2018 $20.612 $18.688 3.0% Deficit spending 2019 $21,433 $19,092 2.2% Trade war 2020 $20,893 $18,384 -3.4% Covid-19 pandemic 2021 $22,996 $19,427 5.7% Covid-19 vaccine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Lister Posted February 18 Author Share Posted February 18 A Bloomberg piece, syndicated: "Record US stock rally in danger in a world of turmoil". https://biz.crast.net/record-us-stock-rally-in-danger-in-a-world-of-turmoil/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swissie Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Looking back, diversyfied Long Therm investors could not have lost. As opposed to "traders". The statistics of my broker tell me that 76% of traders lose money. Exeption: Investors, having bougt the Nikkey 225 in 1989 had to wait over 30 years to break even. Unfortunately, at a certain age, long term investing becomes questionable, as time is no more on ones side. Especially now, when everything looks "pricy", and especially if there are no worthy heirs around. What should I do? Start trading and lose money and crying in my pretzels, or should I invest in the charms of the ladies at "Lulu's Bar and Grill"? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozimoron Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 2 minutes ago, swissie said: Looking back, diversyfied Long Therm investors could not have lost. As opposed to "traders". The statistics of my broker tell me that 76% of traders lose money. Exeption: Investors, having bougt the Nikkey 225 in 1989 had to wait over 30 years to break even. Unfortunately, at a certain age, long term investing becomes questionable, as time is no more on ones side. Especially now, when everything looks "pricy", and especially if there are no worthy heirs around. What should I do? Start trading and lose money and crying in my pretzels, or should I invest in the charms of the ladies at "Lulu's Bar and Grill"? I'd go with Lulu's. YOLO. Right now, what doesn't look pricey is oil. Pullbacks from it's current price of 0.77 look like a gift. I think the ME issue won't go away anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Yellowtail Posted February 18 Popular Post Share Posted February 18 54 minutes ago, swissie said: Looking back, diversyfied Long Therm investors could not have lost. As opposed to "traders". The statistics of my broker tell me that 76% of traders lose money. Exeption: Investors, having bougt the Nikkey 225 in 1989 had to wait over 30 years to break even. Unfortunately, at a certain age, long term investing becomes questionable, as time is no more on ones side. Especially now, when everything looks "pricy", and especially if there are no worthy heirs around. What should I do? Start trading and lose money and crying in my pretzels, or should I invest in the charms of the ladies at "Lulu's Bar and Grill"? At your age, I recommend investing in houses and lots. Whorehouses and lots of booze. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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