Send GBP to THB now or wait?

[nomad2019]

Hi all

Have watched GBP grow over last month.  I have substantial savings in uk. I'm near 60 years old and I do not want keep my money at home, I've bought some brittania gold coins etc and will cash them in also.  I'm guessing dollar & pound to collapse coming year maybe 2024/25,  Thailand to join BRICS nations,   we can see UK going to s##t before our eyes. 

Any advice please. 

[scubascuba3]

Bank interest circ 6% in UK, 1% Thailand if you're lucky, i transfer minimum over to Thailand

[retarius]

Intersting topic. A classic really. I have the same issues with bringing money from then US.

 

What drives the British economy? What drives the value of the pound? Is the improved baht rate, baht weakness or UK strength? Are the current exchange rates the result of differing interest rates between the UK and Thailand? What are the prospects for rate rises or cuts in the near and long term future? Are the currencies fairly valued now? How are the currencies doing against a basket of currencies like the dollar, the euro, the Swiss franc? You hold gold (physical I hope, and not held with some trader) what do you think the prospects for gold are?

 

No one can answer these questions with any accuracy. No one knows the future. And you could answer the questions correctly and some other unexpected happening in the exchange markets could mean that the rates don't move in the expected direction.

 

I have two investing/financial rules

1) never in vest in something you don't understand and

2) it is never wrong to take a profit and

3) you can't predict the future.  

 

If you bring your money over now and the baht weakens in the future, you haven't lost money. You have locked in a rate of exchange, and you have to pay for the privilege when locking in future rates, and this is the risk you have to bear. 

 

The exchange rate between Baht and sterling will likely fluctuate up and down in the future, as it has in the past. 

 

Also you have to consider what time horizon you have as the pound will likely move both up and down against the baht in the future. The other thing is, what are you going to do with the money? Do you need it now?

 

What I am saying, is that imho, you don't have a chance of guessing the future.....if it is money you will need here soon, personally I would change the money now and never look at the exchange rates for the next five years ( to avoid buyer's remorse). If the money is chump change to you and you don't need it in the foreseeable future and can afford to lose it, why not trade in the riskier assets now. Then  exchange part of the money at regular intervals over the coming months/years depending on your time horizon? ie bring it over bit by bit to iron out the fluctuations in the exchange rate.

 

Personally I don't see the dollar or the pound collapsing in the near future. Other than the regular collapses of Argentina, I've never seen Britain 'collapse' or other liberal democracies collapse. Be careful that misinformation in the media used to sell newspapers, doesn't cloud your judgement. The most significant knowable event in the UK is the election where labour might take the reins. Do you think this will be a plus for the current or the death blow to it? 

[mfd101]

5 minutes ago, retarius said:

Personally I don't see the dollar or the pound collapsing in the near future. Other than the regular collapses of Argentina, I've never seen Britain 'collapse' or other liberal democracies collapse. Be careful that misinformation in the media used to sell newspapers, doesn't cloud your judgement.

Hear! Hear!

[Mike Lister]

3 minutes ago, retarius said:

Intersting topic. A classic really. I have the same issues with bringing money from then US.

 

What drives the British economy? What drives the value of the pound? Is the improved baht rate, baht weakness or UK strength? Are the current exchange rates the result of differing interest rates between the UK and Thailand? What are the prospects for rate rises or cuts in the near and long term future? Are the currencies fairly valued now? How are the currencies doing against a basket of currencies like the dollar, the euro, the Swiss franc? You hold gold (physical I hope, and not held with some trader) what do you think the prospects for gold are?

 

No one can answer these questions with any accuracy. No one knows the future. And you could answer the questions correctly and some other unexpected happening in the exchange markets could mean that the rates don't move in the expected direction.

 

I have two investing/financial rules

1) never in vest in something you don't understand and

2) it is never wrong to take a profit and

3) you can't predict the future.  

 

If you bring your money over now and the baht weakens in the future, you haven't lost money. You have locked in a rate of exchange, and you have to pay for the privilege when locking in future rates, and this is the risk you have to bear. 

 

The exchange rate between Baht and sterling will likely fluctuate up and down in the future, as it has in the past. 

 

Also you have to consider what time horizon you have as the pound will likely move both up and down against the baht in the future. The other thing is, what are you going to do with the money? Do you need it now?

 

What I am saying, is that imho, you don't have a chance of guessing the future.....if it is money you will need here soon, personally I would change the money now and never look at the exchange rates for the next five years ( to avoid buyer's remorse). If the money is chump change to you and you don't need it in the foreseeable future and can afford to lose it, why not trade in the riskier assets now. Then  exchange part of the money at regular intervals over the coming months/years depending on your time horizon? ie bring it over bit by bit to iron out the fluctuations in the exchange rate.

 

Personally I don't see the dollar or the pound collapsing in the near future. Other than the regular collapses of Argentina, I've never seen Britain 'collapse' or other liberal democracies collapse. Be careful that misinformation in the media used to sell newspapers, doesn't cloud your judgement. The most significant knowable event in the UK is the election where labour might take the reins. Do you think this will be a plus for the current or the death blow to it? 

GBP/THB is derived from a cross rate of USD/THB and USD/GBP. The current Pound/Baht weakness is therefore a result of USD strength and THB weakness.

 

 

[Mike Lister]

35 minutes ago, nomad2019 said:

Hi all

Have watched GBP grow over last month.  I have substantial savings in uk. I'm near 60 years old and I do not want keep my money at home, I've bought some brittania gold coins etc and will cash them in also.  I'm guessing dollar & pound to collapse coming year maybe 2024/25,  Thailand to join BRICS nations,   we can see UK going to s##t before our eyes. 

Any advice please. 

OP - a reasonable strategy at present would be to transfer half of your holdings at the present rate and wait on the second half. Watch USD strength and also events in Thailand, you can almost ignore events in the UK. The long term average for USD/THB is circa 32 and that's where the pair will return at some point, the prospect of anything significantly over 36 is quite low.

[gargamon]

Only bring what you need when you need it, with a bit of a cushion of course. When you kick off it's much easier to control where the money goes in your home country than in Thailand. 

[JackGats]

If I could answer that question with certainty and accuracy I'd be a rich man.

[BritManToo]

Bring enough for your VISA/extension and a year's worth of living expenses.

No guarantee you can stay in Thailand, or get your money in the bank back if you had to leave in a hurry.

[nomad2019]

1 hour ago, retarius said:

Intersting topic. A classic really. I have the same issues with bringing money from then US.

 

What drives the British economy? What drives the value of the pound? Is the improved baht rate, baht weakness or UK strength? Are the current exchange rates the result of differing interest rates between the UK and Thailand? What are the prospects for rate rises or cuts in the near and long term future? Are the currencies fairly valued now? How are the currencies doing against a basket of currencies like the dollar, the euro, the Swiss franc? You hold gold (physical I hope, and not held with some trader) what do you think the prospects for gold are?

 

No one can answer these questions with any accuracy. No one knows the future. And you could answer the questions correctly and some other unexpected happening in the exchange markets could mean that the rates don't move in the expected direction.

 

I have two investing/financial rules

1) never in vest in something you don't understand and

2) it is never wrong to take a profit and

3) you can't predict the future.  

 

If you bring your money over now and the baht weakens in the future, you haven't lost money. You have locked in a rate of exchange, and you have to pay for the privilege when locking in future rates, and this is the risk you have to bear. 

 

The exchange rate between Baht and sterling will likely fluctuate up and down in the future, as it has in the past. 

 

Also you have to consider what time horizon you have as the pound will likely move both up and down against the baht in the future. The other thing is, what are you going to do with the money? Do you need it now?

 

What I am saying, is that imho, you don't have a chance of guessing the future.....if it is money you will need here soon, personally I would change the money now and never look at the exchange rates for the next five years ( to avoid buyer's remorse). If the money is chump change to you and you don't need it in the foreseeable future and can afford to lose it, why not trade in the riskier assets now. Then  exchange part of the money at regular intervals over the coming months/years depending on your time horizon? ie bring it over bit by bit to iron out the fluctuations in the exchange rate.

 

Personally I don't see the dollar or the pound collapsing in the near future. Other than the regular collapses of Argentina, I've never seen Britain 'collapse' or other liberal democracies collapse. Be careful that misinformation in the media used to sell newspapers, doesn't cloud your judgement. The most significant knowable event in the UK is the election where labour might take the reins. Do you think this will be a plus for the current or the death blow to it? 

I'm going on the assumption that the BRICS are going to be a better place for my money ( thailand)

I see the uk economy go to 💩💩💩 year on year this last 10 yrs being worst, no housing more homelessness etc. USAsending aid to Ukraine 😂 😂 😂 instead of looking after it's own... All in all I just have a feeling of gloom and despair for West. 

[nomad2019]

53 minutes ago, JackGats said:

If I could answer that question with certainty and accuracy I'd be a rich man.

Well 90% on here would say that wouldn't they. 

[KhunBENQ]

1 hour ago, Mike Lister said:

GBP/THB is derived from a cross rate of USD/THB and USD/GBP. The current Pound/Baht weakness is therefore a result of USD strength and THB weakness.

 

 

And the THB weakness gives quite good rates looking at long time charts.

Don't expect GBP to come back to the times before Brexit though.

After 23rd June 2016 the downturn started.

 

 

[BangkokHank]

Are you currently living in Thailand? If so, there will be tax implications for transferring your money to Thailand - in addition to exchange rate considerations.

[daveAustin]

UK, US currencies collapsing? What a load of old conspiracist internet drivel. If anything, Thailand and China will go to pieces first... what is the former's economy based on, what do they make, and the latter has chanced its arm for too long and is pretty much teetering as we speak. The exchange rate will likely hover as it has been, and yes, don't forget that UK banks are paying around 5 or 6%. What are Thai banks paying?

[JackGats]

UK banks paying 5%? Wow! EU-banks are already down to 3% most of them.

[KannikaP]

2 hours ago, Mike Lister said:

GBP/THB is derived from a cross rate of USD/THB and USD/GBP. The current Pound/Baht weakness is therefore a result of USD strength and THB weakness.

 

The current GBP/THB 'weakness' does not show on my exchange rate graph. Today 45.49 after Friday's 45.79.

Previous high was in mid 2021 when it topped 46.

[Mike Lister]

7 hours ago, daveAustin said:

UK, US currencies collapsing? What a load of old conspiracist internet drivel. If anything, Thailand and China will go to pieces first... what is the former's economy based on, what do they make, and the latter has chanced its arm for too long and is pretty much teetering as we speak. The exchange rate will likely hover as it has been, and yes, don't forget that UK banks are paying around 5 or 6%. What are Thai banks paying?

I don't think anyone said USD and GBP were/will collapse!

 

The USD/THB trend pre-covid was to strengthen. only covid spending and trade disruption has interfered with that. BOT spent virtually all of its currency intervention time, pre-covid, weakening THB in an attempt to keep it in the optimum trading range of 32/33, pre-covid that range strengthened to sub 30. The fact that it is now at 36 is almost irrelevant because we're still in post covid recovery plus there are new issues on the table. Regardless, I remain totally complete that within 3 years time, THB will be back to 30. Why? One key reason is that Thai public debt is only USD 60 bill vs US USD34 trill and climbing, Thai public debt today is at the same level today it was in 2000. 

 

GBP value is not really relevant in all of this, I think, since GBP/THB is calculated from USD/THB and USD/GBP. Anyway, UK debt is almost as bad as US debt plus UK markets are linked inextricably to the US. 

 

Interest rates: will normalise within 18 months, between now and then the Baht may weaken slightly, perhaps. Which is why I think a 50% trade today would be good value, 45 against the Pound is not exactly an everyday event!