Liz Truss was right about the creeping dominance of the OBR

[Social Media]

 

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has been increasingly influential in shaping government policy, particularly in areas such as immigration, healthcare, and fiscal planning. Liz Truss, in her upcoming memoir, has criticized the OBR's role and its impact on her time in office, highlighting concerns shared by other Cabinet members about the organization's influence.

 

The OBR's reliance on models to assess government policies has raised questions about its effectiveness and the constraints it places on innovative initiatives. For example, proposed policies must undergo scrutiny by the OBR, and reforms often live or die based on its verdicts. This can stifle new ideas and limit ministers' ability to enact significant changes.

 

Critics argue that the OBR's models may not accurately capture the complex dynamics of issues like healthcare or welfare, leading to flawed assessments of policy proposals. Ministers feel frustrated by their lack of ability to challenge the OBR's judgments and the constraints it imposes on their decision-making.

 

While some adjustments have been made to the OBR's role, such as extending the timeframe for assessing fiscal rules, challenges remain in making the organization more receptive to certain policy priorities, such as tax cuts.

 

Truss's critique of the OBR reflects broader concerns about the technocratic nature of government decision-making and the extent to which official modellers shape policy outcomes. While the OBR serves an important role in fiscal oversight, there are questions about its influence and the need for greater transparency and accountability in its operations. Truss's experiences highlight the complexities and limitations of navigating the bureaucratic landscape within government.

 

13.04.24

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[Chomper Higgot]

If Liz Truss’ memoir has more than five pages she’s padding it out. 

 

 

[RuamRudy]

10 hours ago, Social Media said:

The OBR's reliance on models to assess government policies has raised questions about its effectiveness and the constraints it places on innovative initiatives.

...

Critics argue that the OBR's models may not accurately capture the complex dynamics of issues like healthcare or welfare, leading to flawed assessments of policy proposals.

 

MPs, including ministers and Prime Ministers, are rarely subject matter experts in incredibly complex and fickle things like managing a globally connected country. Without models, which have been developed by actual experts and refined over decades of data acquisition and analysis, how are the ideas of short term non-expert incumbents, who are naturally inclined towards selfish decision making, to be tested?

[JonnyF]

She was right about a lot of things. That's why she had to be removed.

 

Telling the truth is dangerous in 2024. Fortunately some of us continue to do so.

[Chomper Higgot]

1 hour ago, JonnyF said:

She was right about a lot of things. That's why she had to be removed.

 

Telling the truth is dangerous in 2024. Fortunately some of us continue to do so.

She was removed by the Tories because of her fiscal insanity.

What truths did she tell?

 

[herfiehandbag]

14 hours ago, RuamRudy said:

 

MPs, including ministers and Prime Ministers, are rarely subject matter experts in incredibly complex and fickle things like managing a globally connected country. Without models, which have been developed by actual experts and refined over decades of data acquisition and analysis, how are the ideas of short term non-expert incumbents, who are naturally inclined towards selfish decision making, to be tested?

In a democracy that is the job of the parliament, not of an appointed unelected bureaucracy. 

[Chomper Higgot]

3 minutes ago, herfiehandbag said:

In a democracy that is the job of the parliament, not of an appointed unelected bureaucracy. 

Truss has a grudge against the Office of Budget Responsibility (there’s a clue in the name).

 

She neglected to inform them of her fiscally insane plan and then went on to push the economy to the brink of collapse.

 

She’s a raving lunatic.

 

Even so, she does have her admirers.

[herfiehandbag]

2 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Truss has a grudge against the Office of Budget Responsibility (there’s a clue in the name).

 

She neglected to inform them of her fiscally insane plan and then went on to push the economy to the brink of collapse.

 

She’s a raving lunatic.

 

Even so, she does have her admirers.

Nice little "dig" in the final line eh!

 

You just can't give it up can you?

 

Back to my point, it was for parliament to reject her plan and turf her out.

[Chomper Higgot]

3 minutes ago, herfiehandbag said:

Nice little "dig" in the final line eh!

 

You just can't give it up can you?

 

Back to my point, it was for parliament to reject her plan and turf her out.

It was a Tory majority parliament.

 

It was the Tory MP’s who submitted letters to the 1922 committee to toss her out.

 

Had she passed her fiscally insane plan by the OBR they would have had the chance to advise against unfounded tax cuts, she obviously thought it a good idea to leave the teaching of the lesson to the markets.

 

People in the UK who are paying mortgages are still faced with the bill.

 

[RuamRudy]

15 minutes ago, herfiehandbag said:

In a democracy that is the job of the parliament, not of an appointed unelected bureaucracy. 

 

The OBR doesn't make policy, it advises on the impact of policy proposals. 

 

Are you happy for unqualified MPs who, to a man, are incentivised to make populist, short term policy proposals, to make potentially massive changes to our society without expert guidance and oversight?

[herfiehandbag]

1 hour ago, RuamRudy said:

 

The OBR doesn't make policy, it advises on the impact of policy proposals. 

 

Are you happy for unqualified MPs who, to a man, are incentivised to make populist, short term policy proposals, to make potentially massive changes to our society without expert guidance and oversight?

The qualifications for an MP is to have won the majority of votes in their constituency. The qualifications for a government is to be able to muster a majority in parliament. Otherwise limiting an MP by qualifications could lead for example, if we are to be logical, to MPs not being able to vote on defence spending because they had not served in the forces, or on criminal law matters because they were not lawyers. If government plans and parliamentary deliberations were to be overseen by appointed panels then the prospects for any reform, by parties of either the right or left would be stymied by an inevitable sclerotic bureaucracy. Parliament is, and should remain sovereign. That is kind of fundamental.

 

There is nothing wrong with expert guidance, nothing at all. However oversight has connotations of making ultimate decisions. That is my concern.

Truss makes a valid point, certainly one that should be considered. 

 

Many might suggest that just perhaps the OBR has ambitions to move beyond a mere advisory role. There are undoubtedly some politicians who may favour that, because it will allow blame to be deflected in the event of economic failure.

 

Incidentally I think Truss's plan was barking; but as you have yourself, along with others pointed out, the parliamentary/party systems stepped in and put a stop to it.