Thailand’s triangular political equilibrium rests on many things, and one of the most important foundations can be the most unpredictable.

 

Thaksin Shinawatra, wielding one of the country’s biggest political influences according to an opinion poll, spawns theories. The first is what “appears” to be publicly but is gaining skepticism left and right.

 

In the first theory, he is sincere about stepping away from politics, about giving political advice to the Pheu Thai-led government from time to time, about helping the Shinawatra grownups maintain relevance in Thai politics as long as that does not impact his devotion to the Shinawatra toddlers.

 

The second theory is that he unexpectedly has to be substantially more politically active than he wanted to, because of the threats posed by the Move Forward Party to Pheu Thai’s status quo. In other words, Pheu Thai is no longer the leader in the ideological half it once dominated, and Thaksin has to fix it.

 

This means a lot more than giving occasional advice or helping the government promote the digital wallet. Pheu Thai needs a reboot, and so far Srettha Thavisin and Paetongtarn Shinawatra do not look like they were built for the job. To win back the party’s popularity, Thaksin cannot act like the man Chuan Leekpai is to the Democrat Party.

 

Simply put, while Chuan is no longer the Democrats’ flagship, Thaksin has to be the real face of Pheu Thai. Yet in this second theory, it’s not that Thaksin is cunning or trickery. It’s because the brand needs him or it will die, quickly or slowly.

 

Caption: Former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra / AFP

 

Full story: Thai PBS 2024-04-19

 

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13 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

Thaksin Shinawatra, wielding one of the country’s biggest political influences according to an opinion poll, spawns theories. The first is what “appears” to be publicly but is gaining skepticism left and right.

Thailand now under the control of someone on parole.... Thailand really has hit rock bottom.

3 minutes ago, hotchilli said:

Thailand now under the control of someone on parole.... Thailand really has hit rock bottom.

 

Our countries are being run by people who would be denied parole.  

Sure one of Tony's herbal remedies that produces a get out of jail free card could be part of his advice 🤔

thaksin as unelected pm, no problem, where is the supposed 'leader' of the country anyway

That police hospital performed a miracle absolutely amazing given the recovery  he has made in such a short time

21 hours ago, crazykopite said:

That police hospital performed a miracle absolutely amazing given the recovery  he has made in such a short time

Maybe they should start an international "health hub campaign" with Thaksin as their celeb spokesperson...

The next 6 months will be fascinating as the current Senate reaches its use-by date and assorted votes & referenda are to follow.

 

How that pans out - and where Thaksin is in the midst of it all - will give us a good insight into the next 4 or 5 years.

The whole Thaksin controversy while relevant to the political dinosaurs trying to hold on to power and someone higher up is being promoted by those controlling the media narrative and has little relevance to the next generation of politicians that have already made their presence known and are being very effective and changing the future landscape. The dinosaurs are trying to hold their powerbase as long as possible and believe Thaksin's past popularity is still at the same level it was 2 decades ago and can swing things back to their favor.  In realtiy they only amunition they have is the dirty political tricks and corrupt courts they influence. Times are changing and while he's important to them he isnt the power he once was. 

On 4/20/2024 at 5:56 AM, hotchilli said:

Thailand now under the control of someone on parole.... Thailand really has hit rock bottom.

 

It has always been circling the plughole. 

 

They fooled a lot of people over the years, but you always get found out in the end for what you really are. 

4 minutes ago, Mr Meeseeks said:

 

It has always been circling the plughole. 

 

They fooled a lot of people over the years, but you always get found out in the end for what you really are. 

People have known for ages what they are... what confuses me is why do they continue to put up with it?

2 hours ago, hotchilli said:

People have known for ages what they are... what confuses me is why do they continue to put up with it?

Its my belief that the average Thai knows of all the corruption, doesnt like it, but its gone on so long in their lives and nothing has changed one way or the other, nor will it regardless of who's in power. It's kinda like the war in most middle east countries in there is no one alive today that ever lived in a time where there was no war, so its just part of life and you work around it. The young middle class politicians that have been educated abroad and seen what life , economy and politics can be are the ones that will bring change. They have the momentum and suppprt of the young and it continues to grow they just need to figure out how to get around the landmines and roadblocks laid by the corrupt dinosaurs and then you will see many changes occur. Nothing will ever be perfect here but it can be a lot better for the general population

On 4/19/2024 at 4:11 PM, snoop1130 said:

Simply put, while Chuan is no longer the Democrats’ flagship, Thaksin has to be the real face of Pheu Thai. Yet in this second theory, it’s not that Thaksin is cunning or trickery. It’s because the brand needs him or it will die, quickly or slowly.

 

Some time ago, when he was still in exile, I read an interesting article. It described the Thaksin cardboard effect. As long as he was far away many people thought about him as the big savior. They remembered the good things which he did. And many people wanted more of the good things.

 

Now, that he is back, it's not so easy anymore. Now there is the real person, cheating and lying. And he can't pretend anymore he is far away and can't do anything. Now PTs failure is Thaksin's failure.

 

 

And then there is of course the issue that Thaksin told everybody they would never ever work together with the generals - until the moment that was the only possibility to get part of the trough. I am sure lots of people won't forget that betrayal.

 

 

 

 

20 years ago i said tax-sin wants to be king of thailand and from what i read this morning about what they are going to bring in about coup makers he is making his move 

2 hours ago, hotchilli said:

People have known for ages what they are... what confuses me is why do they continue to put up with it?

-Fear? Even fear of violence.

-Need the handout for family to survive, so that kids have schoolbooks...

Upcoming generations of budding Thai politicians will learn from the examples of success of the current lot and learn the tricks of the trade.The lure of massive riches and power will understandably set their corrupt course through the sludge...

 

There will be well meaning idealists among them initially but they will be crushed and disillusioned by the feared, entrenched, unchangeable power structure.

 

 

7 hours ago, Dan O said:

The whole Thaksin controversy while relevant to the political dinosaurs trying to hold on to power and someone higher up is being promoted by those controlling the media narrative and has little relevance to the next generation of politicians that have already made their presence known and are being very effective and changing the future landscape. The dinosaurs are trying to hold their powerbase as long as possible and believe Thaksin's past popularity is still at the same level it was 2 decades ago and can swing things back to their favor.  In realtiy they only amunition they have is the dirty political tricks and corrupt courts they influence. Times are changing and while he's important to them he isnt the power he once was. 

I hope you're right but as the article says, Thaksin is a businessman. If he can improve the economy and offer enough populist policies to the grassroots, then Pheu Thai may resurge, especially if, as expected, Pita and other executives of Move Forward are banned for years.

And Yingluck, if she returns as seems likely from recent court decisions, could certainly boost PT's popularity, again with the grass roots.

But she may have had enough of politics. Thaksin's daughter doesn't have the charisma to carry the party forward imo, and Toni is old, irrelevant to the young.

Pheu Thai would very likely fold once Toni leaves the planet 

Regarding MF, they need another charismatic leader to take over, Parit, Abhisit's nephew could be one example.

The future belongs to them.

To quote the late great drunkard, Jim Morrison, ' They've got the guns, we've got the numbers'.

 

5 hours ago, Dan O said:

The young middle class politicians that have been educated abroad and seen what life , economy and politics can be are the ones that will bring change.

In the process of being dissolved as we speak... 

If MFP are completely dissolved and the population do nothing then Thailand is in the hands of the elites forever

36 minutes ago, hotchilli said:

In the process of being dissolved as we speak... 

If MFP are completely dissolved and the population do nothing then Thailand is in the hands of the elites forever

Nope, if dissolved they just move to a new party and come election time they create a new form of MFP just like they did for this election from their last party. They had no problem creating a new party after their last party was dissolved and time and youth is on there side. If it weren't for corruption and the unelected senators they would be in power now. Last election votes showed that. The only reason PT is still pressing for the 10k free money is in hopes of buying future votes and sympathy. 

12 hours ago, Dan O said:

Nope, if dissolved they just move to a new party and come election time they create a new form of MFP just like they did for this election from their last party. They had no problem creating a new party after their last party was dissolved and time and youth is on there side.

Not if the party members are banned from politics for 10 years.... 

17 hours ago, ba ba said:

20 years ago i said tax-sin wants to be king of thailand and from what i read this morning about what they are going to bring in about coup makers he is making his move 

That was very apparent back then.... his mug was plastered all over the place, surpassing that of another. My Ms used to get annoyed with me as I referred to him as 'King Thaksin'.....

2 hours ago, hotchilli said:

Not if the party members are banned from politics for 10 years.... 

They would need to ban all party members and thats not been the case in the past, only the leaders, not that it couldnt happen but highly unlikely