An invitation to dance with Dr. Copper.

[swissie]

Before "the correction" of late, Copper was up 25% this year. SUPPLY AND DEMAND is still the name of the game, or is it?

Demand increasing, supply not keeping up. An upcoming discrepancy between supply and demand of this magnitude is very rare and comes across only every 20 years. Any further short term weakness in Copper must be considered as a gift from heaven.

If your life-expectancy is at least 5 years and you are aware that the "carrying-charge" of Copper is around 6% per year, you should stop "dancing with wolves" and start to dance with Dr. Copper instead.

[Mike Lister]

Wise and sagely advice.

 

Here's one easy play for Brits who don't know how, if nothing else, look at the performance chart to confirm Warren Swissie's words  :

 

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/w/wisdomtree-copper

 

What is fascinating is that copper has an inverse relationship to USD, when USD weakens, copper strengthens. The price of copper has been strengthening for the past three months, but so has USD! The price driver of copper is therefore not currency based and the real value increase is much higher than the chart shows. Either demand has increased substantially because of economic improvement and increased demand, or, stockpiling and the threat and the threat of supply disruptions is center stage.  My guess is the latter.

 

 https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy

 

Thank you swissie for the pointer.

[topt]

Good link that explains some things you may need to consider if you are looking at copper ETFs.-

https://www.investopedia.com/copper-etfs-how-they-work-8430658

[roquefort]

On 5/27/2024 at 4:31 AM, Mike Lister said:

What is fascinating is that copper has an inverse relationship to USD, when USD weakens, copper strengthens. The price of copper has been strengthening for the past three months, but so has USD! The price driver of copper is therefore not currency based and the real value increase is much higher than the chart shows. Either demand has increased substantially because of economic improvement and increased demand, or, stockpiling and the threat and the threat of supply disruptions is center stage.  My guess is the latter.

 

Definitely the latter. Net Zero (EV charging etc) will require massive new supply of copper to reconfigure power supply networks. Not to mention AI, which consumes unimaginable amounts of energy.

 

This is a good analysis of what is required in terms of commodities to get anywhere the current renewable energy targets.

 

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/09/04/the-quantity-of-metals-required-to-manufacture-just-one-generation-of-renewable-technology-to-phase-out-fossil-fuels/

[charleskerins]

On 5/26/2024 at 11:11 PM, swissie said:

Before "the correction" of late, Copper was up 25% this year. SUPPLY AND DEMAND is still the name of the game, or is it?

Demand increasing, supply not keeping up. An upcoming discrepancy between supply and demand of this magnitude is very rare and comes across only every 20 years. Any further short term weakness in Copper must be considered as a gift from heaven.

If your life-expectancy is at least 5 years and you are aware that the "carrying-charge" of Copper is around 6% per year, you should stop "dancing with wolves" and start to dance with Dr. Copper instead.

In the commodities market or is there stocks  ?Holla back   Thanks

[Mike Lister]

1 minute ago, charleskerins said:

In the commodities market or is there stocks  ?Holla back   Thanks

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/w/wisdomtree-copper

[charleskerins]

32 minutes ago, Mike Lister said:

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/w/wisdomtree-copper

BHP GROUP	(NYSE:BHP)	$155.9 billion	A leading global natural resources company
FREEPORT-MCMORAN	(NYSE:FCX)	$77.9 billion	A leading copper miner
TECK RESOURCES	(NYSE:TECK) (TSX:TECK.B)	$27.9 billion	A diversified natural resources company
SOUTHERN COPPER	(NYSE:SCCO)	$97.9 billion	The largest holder of reported copper reserves in the world
RIO TINTO        Like any of these?

[charleskerins]

6 hours ago, topt said:

Good link that explains some things you may need to consider if you are looking at copper ETFs.-

https://www.investopedia.com/copper-etfs-how-they-work-8430658

Thank you

[AgMech Cowboy]

Wow, and I've got all these extra 'cables' crammed into a cupboard in my office. Maybe I should strip all the insulation off of them and find a metal buyer. 🤣😇

[radiochaser]

17 hours ago, AgMech Cowboy said:

Wow, and I've got all these extra 'cables' crammed into a cupboard in my office. Maybe I should strip all the insulation off of them and find a metal buyer. 🤣😇

It might be worth it.     I drive by a huge sign (in the U.S. of A.)  advertising prices for scrap copper.    The price jumped 20 cents from one day to the next.   I think it it $4.40 a pound now.  

[swissie]

On 5/28/2024 at 10:56 AM, charleskerins said:

In the commodities market or is there stocks  ?Holla back   Thanks

For most people, easiest way would be to buy mining stocks. Problem is, to open new mines costs a tremendeous amount of money. Takes 10 years to bring a new mine on line. Ore content of new mines generally lower.

So, instead of opening new mines, the big mining companies rather try to buy themselfes out. (!!??!!) This doesn't help the "supply leg" of the equasion. Better to go with futures/ETF's.

PS: Looks like Copper is ready to correct some more. For this occasion I raised some cash. I sold my kitchen sink and I sold my 8 daughters to a harem in Saudi Arabia.

[charleskerins]

11 hours ago, swissie said:

For most people, easiest way would be to buy mining stocks. Problem is, to open new mines costs a tremendeous amount of money. Takes 10 years to bring a new mine on line. Ore content of new mines generally lower.

So, instead of opening new mines, the big mining companies rather try to buy themselfes out. (!!??!!) This doesn't help the "supply leg" of the equasion. Better to go with futures/ETF's.

PS: Looks like Copper is ready to correct some more. For this occasion I raised some cash. I sold my kitchen sink and I sold my 8 daughters to a harem in Saudi Arabia.

going with an ETF