The Dire Consequences of a Potential Russian Victory in Ukraine

[Social Media]

 

If Russia triumphs in its ongoing invasion of Ukraine, the world must prepare for what could be one of the worst genocides since the Holocaust. Russia's strategy involves not just military conquest but a systematic campaign of ethnic cleansing, sexual violence, and mass deportations aimed at eradicating Ukrainian identity. As the conflict surpasses 800 days, it is crucial to move beyond abstract military maps and grasp the severe human realities at stake.

 

From the beginning, Russia has exhibited a clear genocidal intent towards Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin's 2021 essay, "On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians," dismissed Ukrainian sovereignty, asserting that Ukrainians are essentially Russians misled by external forces. This ideology is supported by the Kremlin-controlled Russian Orthodox Church's "trinity doctrine," which claims that Ukrainians and Belarusians are part of the Russian nation and must be "reunified."

 

Russian rhetoric frequently dehumanizes Ukraine, labeling it an "artificial concept" and a "fake country." Such narratives are part of a comprehensive state-sponsored effort to delegitimize Ukraine's existence as an independent nation. The Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide defines genocide as acts committed with the intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a particular group. These acts do not need to be purely physical; actions intended to destroy a group's identity also constitute genocide. Russia's actions in Ukraine—including executions, sexual violence, detentions, torture, and the mass deportation of children—clearly align with these genocidal criteria.

 

One of the most egregious aspects of Russia's genocidal campaign is the forcible deportation of Ukrainian children. As of April 2024, the Ukrainian government has verified the deportation of 19,546 children, though the true number is likely much higher. These children are subjected to Kremlin-approved re-education, forced to adopt Russian culture and language, and sometimes even inducted into military training.

 

High-ranking Kremlin officials have personally adopted deported Ukrainian children, exemplified by Maria Lvova-Belova, Putin’s Commissioner on Children’s Rights, who now faces an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court (ICC) for her role in these crimes.

 

In territories under Russian control, the erasure of Ukrainian identity is methodical. Schools are forced to adhere to the "Russian standard," erasing Ukrainian history and language. Children are indoctrinated with Russian military-patriotic ideals, creating a direct pipeline into the Russian military. Civilian life in these areas is under constant threat, with pro-Ukrainian individuals facing deportation or execution, and access to basic goods and services being used as leverage to force Ukrainians to adopt Russian citizenship.

 

Russia's ethnic cleansing efforts involve repopulating occupied Ukrainian areas with Russian citizens, altering the demographics to solidify control and complicate future reintegration into Ukraine. The Kremlin claims to have relocated over 4.8 million Ukrainians to Russia, including 700,000 children, though these figures are unverifiable. This mass movement under coercive conditions highlights the extensive scale of Russia's efforts to dismantle Ukrainian society.

 

While international legal systems, such as the ICC, have taken steps to address these atrocities, they are often reactive rather than preventive. High-profile war crimes like those in Bucha and Kherson have garnered condemnation, but the ongoing, daily genocidal actions behind the frontlines remain harder to track and prove. Russia’s occupation strategy is designed to make the false narrative that Ukraine has no right to exist a reality.

Ukraine's battle is not just for its territorial integrity but for the survival of its people. If Russia succeeds, the genocidal project will expand, engulfing more of Ukraine and inflicting unimaginable suffering on millions. The international community must reject any notion of territorial concessions and recommit to supporting Ukraine, recognizing that this conflict is about resisting and defeating an aggressive genocidal campaign.

 

The stakes in Ukraine are extraordinarily high. A Russian victory would not merely redraw borders but result in systematic, large-scale genocide. The world must understand and act against the full horror of this potential outcome, ensuring that Ukraine's fight for survival is supported robustly and unwaveringly. The preservation of Ukrainian identity and sovereignty is essential to prevent one of the most severe humanitarian crises of our time.

In many cases, Russia’s genocidal project in Ukraine is banal, mundane, and hard to track and prove. But every aspect of Russia’s occupation of Ukraine is deliberate and flows from Putin’s initial justification for the invasion. It is meant to make real the Kremlin lie that Ukraine has no right to exist and that there is no such thing as a Ukrainian people.

 

Ukraine is fighting a war for the survival of the Ukrainian people. Russia’s genocidal project is the purpose of Russia’s military operations, and Ukraine’s supporters must not separate the two. Should Ukraine fall to Russia on the battlefield, the rest of its people will fall victim to the genocidal project Russia is conducting in the lands it already controls, which “only” constitutes about 20 per cent of the country’s legal territory. Imagine how many millions would be victims of this abhorrent behaviour if it reaches 30 per cent, 40 per cent, or even 100 per cent.

 

Indeed, many military experts would argue that Nazi-style tactics would be the only way to quell a population so vehemently opposed to Russia’s control. We would see horrors unfold daily. We must face this reality squarely and stop blithely talking about offering “territorial” concessions to “stop the fighting” without forcing ourselves to confront the horrors that such concessions will inflict on the people living in those lands. Putin’s invasion was never about seizing limited bits of land. It was always about destroying a people. Ukraine’s supporters must therefore recommit themselves to the project of saving this people and showing that they will resist and defeat aggression and genocide on this scale.

 

Karolina Hird is Russia Deputy Team Lead and Analyst at the Institute for the Study of War in Washington DC.

 

Credit: The Daily Telegraph 2024-06-04

 

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[VBer]

4 hours ago, Social Media said:

and mass deportations aimed at eradicating Ukrainian identity

How this corresponds with the fact that according to the 2021 census there are 171k Ukrainians living in Crimea, and Ukrainian being is one of three official languages?

People not afraid to call themselves Ukrainians when being asked.

Where I can read about mass deportations or genocide in Crimea?

[Gweiloman]

The same tired, old playbook that the west tries to use against China Xinjiang. Genocide, cultural genocide, deportation of children, banning of the native language, false imprisonment, slave labour… Coupled with the supply of arms and ammo and the training of the military, exactly what happened in Ukraine. Same old, same old.

 

The world has seen through this and yet there are still people, even on here, gullible enough to believe this. Is the ISW that Nuland’s organisation or is it another one?

[Dcheech]

47 minutes ago, VBer said:

Where I can read about mass deportations or genocide in Crimea?

 

You can get any number of videos on you tube about the Crimean Tartars strange dissapearnces since soviet, oops my bad, Russian control of the Crimea. I believe there is a BBC one floating around also, or a UK network. Common knowledge for those who look for a decade now. 

[VBer]

13 minutes ago, Dcheech said:

Common knowledge for those who look for a decade now. 

This terrible genocide have a consequence: the number of Crimean Tatars have grown since 2014

Wikipedia

 

[thaibeachlovers]

6 hours ago, Social Media said:

If Russia triumphs in its ongoing invasion of Ukraine, the world must prepare for what could be one of the worst genocides since the Holocaust. Russia's strategy involves not just military conquest but a systematic campaign of ethnic cleansing, sexual violence, and mass deportations aimed at eradicating Ukrainian identity. As the conflict surpasses 800 days, it is crucial to move beyond abstract military maps and grasp the severe human realities at stake.

I stopped reading after that.

 

Just as well it says OPINION at the top of the page.

[AreYouGerman]

On 6/3/2024 at 10:33 PM, Social Media said:

If Russia triumphs in its ongoing invasion of Ukraine, the world must prepare for what could be one of the worst genocides since the Holocaust. 

 

That's antisemitic. The worst event since the Holocaust was the 7 Oct. attack by Hamas.

[thainet]

Oh come on...get real🥱

[retarius]

Yes how terrible is it that Russia wins? We would avoid WW3, how awful is that? To me it sounds quite a fantastic outcome for the human species on earth. 

[300sd]

Now the West is going to give Ukraine the funds they have confiscated from Russia, to support the Ukraine war effort. Yeh that'll work. It will tell China what the West may have in mind for them and Taiwan. Absolute insanity going on now.

[Gweiloman]

21 hours ago, 300sd said:

Now the West is going to give Ukraine the funds they have confiscated from Russia, to support the Ukraine war effort. Yeh that'll work. It will tell China what the West may have in mind for them and Taiwan. Absolute insanity going on now.

I believe China is well prepared for any and all of America’s potential actions. Holdings of treasury bonds and agencies are half of what they were only a short while ago while publicly known gold reserves are at a record high.

 

I always wondered why China doesn’t just dump the bulk of their holdings of US assets in one go, much like just ripping off the band aid. Then I realised that it’s a lot more painful to peel it back, a nano metre at a time. This actually has more chance of that economy imploding into itself, all the time being aware of what’s going to happen next. Cruel sadists, those commies.