Labour's Lead: Triumph or Trap?

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As Labour holds a commanding lead in the polls with a historically strong position on various indicators, concerns still linger within the party. Despite the Conservatives struggling for a distant third place, memories of past electoral disappointments like those in 1970, 1992, and 2015 haunt Labour. Each generation of Labour supporters has scars from nights of unexpected defeats in suburban leisure centers, a reminder that strong polling leads can evaporate.

 

The narrative that this is not a Labour country but a Tory one that occasionally allows Labour in has become a part of the party’s psyche. The notion that there is no such thing as a safe lead underscores Labour’s cautious approach. Although recent polls indicate a slight softening in Labour's vote share, their lead remains robust, partly due to the Conservatives' numbers sagging even more. Yet, many voters remain undecided, including 2019 Conservative voters who seem temperamentally inclined towards the Tories but are lukewarm about Labour’s offer.

 

Despite Labour’s dominance in the early stages of the campaign, uncertainty looms over the final stretch. The media has begun treating the election as a foregone conclusion, focusing on Labour as a government-in-waiting rather than a failing Conservative incumbent. Labour's manifesto, released last week, is replete with small, specific promises but vague on broader plans. The slogan “Little by little” lacks the inspirational appeal needed to rally the electorate. This cautious approach may frustrate voters, particularly those on Labour’s "wobbly left wing" who have strong views on issues like the climate emergency and the Gaza crisis.

 

The Greens, standing a record number of candidates, are attracting young voters, remainers, and 2019 Labour voters, maintaining a 6-8% support according to an Opinium poll. A recent Savanta poll of British Muslims shows Labour’s enduring strength in this group, but also substantial losses to the Greens and others, especially among British-born and Asian-heritage Muslims who prioritize the Israel-Palestine conflict. These losses matter because many target seats require Labour to successfully convince supporters of third-placed parties to lend their votes to Labour to defeat the local Tory incumbent. Convincing voters to accept a second-best option is difficult if Labour’s offer seems weak or if they believe Labour will win nationwide regardless.

 

A leftward shift to secure progressive tactical votes carries its own risks. It could alienate moderate Tory switchers whose dissatisfaction with the government does not equate to affection for Labour. Such voters may be wary of giving a dominant Labour government a blank cheque and may reconsider their switch if Labour moves leftwards late in the campaign.

 

Labour's dominant position, while impressive, is precarious. Historical trends show that Labour's vote shares were often overstated in polls between 1992 and 2015, with Conservative vote shares underestimated. If the polls are wrong again, Labour is likely to be the one disappointed. Another risk is abstention. Continued cautious campaigning might lead less-engaged voters to lose interest and stay home on election day. Turnout slumps accompanied Tony Blair’s landslide wins in 1997 and 2001, with significant drops in safe Labour areas. Low turnout is a bigger risk for Labour now, as their support is particularly strong among young and struggling voters who are often hard to mobilize, whereas Tory strength is concentrated among pensioners who are more likely to vote.

 

These vulnerabilities are not only campaign risks but also early indicators of future challenges. Currently, a universally reviled Conservative government provides a unifying target for anger, masking cracks in Labour’s broad and unwieldy electoral coalition. This unity is unlikely to last once the Conservatives are ousted and Labour becomes the target of voter grievances.

 

Labour’s cautious campaign has left voters with a vague sense of their plans. The strict message discipline designed to minimize campaign risks has stored up problems for future governance. The lessons from 2019 are particularly relevant: Boris Johnson’s disciplined campaign promised change but was vague on specifics. This strategy swept him into office, but betrayal and disappointment soon followed. For Starmer, a promise of change can get him into No. 10, but to survive, that promise must be kept.

 

Labour must navigate a careful path, balancing the need to maintain broad appeal with the necessity of mobilizing their base. They must articulate clear, inspiring plans that address major issues to maintain support beyond just winning the election. The challenges ahead are staggering, and Labour’s current approach, while minimizing immediate risks, may not be enough to ensure long-term success.

 

Credit: The Guardian 2024-06-17

 

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[Purdey]

Pretty good analysis. 

Proportional representation would help keep the Tories out of government. Unfortunately, only the losing parties ever agree it is a good idea.

[transam]

Is that the Boris bus, bought cheap at "Honest Johns Car & Bus Sales" ...🤭