The surprising election results in Britain prompted an international sigh of relief, but Emmanuel Macron’s gamble has weakened both him and Europe. It was a week of contrasts for Europe—good because Britain now boasts a strong, stable centrist government keen on resetting relations with the EU, and French voters rallied to keep the hard-right National Rally (RN) out of power. Yet, it was also a bad week as France appears set for a period of weak, unstable, and divided government, which will hamper the entire EU. This comes at a crucial time for the continent, with Vladimir Putin still pummeling Ukraine and Donald Trump likely to become president of the US again unless Joe Biden steps aside.

 

Britain now has a responsible, pragmatic government of the centre-left, elected for up to five years. Led by a former human rights lawyer determined to defend the rule of law at home and internationally, it embraces a judicious mix of market economy, state intervention, and social justice. The government strongly supports Ukraine and is committed to pursuing good relations with other European countries. This administration is a much better match to the values proclaimed in Article 2 of the Treaty on European Union than the government of Hungary, whose anti-liberal nationalist leader, Viktor Orbán, has been meeting with Putin in Moscow to discuss how they can compel Ukraine to capitulate in the name of “peace.” However, there is a significant snag: Britain is no longer a member of Europe’s core political and economic community.

 

In a bid to demonstrate Britain’s commitment to European stability, David Lammy, Britain’s new foreign minister, visited his counterparts in Germany, Poland, and Sweden in his first few days in office. Meanwhile, John Healey, the new defense minister, hastened to Odesa for talks with his Ukrainian counterpart. Lammy has been emphatic and eloquent in calling for a “reset,” a “fresh start,” and a “close partnership” with the EU and individual European countries. Britain proposes a new UK-EU security pact, with closer cooperation in many areas. Despite the goodwill expressed in Berlin, Paris, Warsaw, and other European capitals, the fact that the UK is institutionally just another “third country” for the EU means that negotiating this new, closer relationship will be complicated, with numerous blocking or veto possibilities for various national, party-political, and bureaucratic players inside the EU.

 

Moreover, the red lines that Keir Starmer proclaimed to win pro-Brexit voters back to Labour—no return to the EU’s customs union, single market, or freedom of movement—seriously limit what can be achieved on the economic front. British politics is not as different from continental Europe as it seems at first glance. A key reason for the scale of Labour’s victory was the split right-wing vote between the Conservatives and Nigel Farage’s Reform party, which is the British equivalent of Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, Germany’s AfD, or Italy’s Fratelli d’Italia, channeling widespread popular economic and cultural concerns into the scapegoating of immigration. Farage’s Reform party got about 14% of the popular vote compared to about 24% for the Tories. Nationalist populist sentiments on both sides of the Channel will constrain and complicate the UK-EU reset, while the hard right continues to grow stronger.

 

The news from London is more encouraging than that from Paris. Yes, an astronaut orbiting our planet would have heard a huge sigh of relief rising from the entire European continent as it was learned that RN had not repeated its spectacular success in the first round of the parliamentary election and would only be the third-largest group in the National Assembly, the lower house of the French parliament. But that’s where the good news ends. In Britain, the popular vote primarily aimed to oust the Conservatives. In France, it was to keep RN out, not to put anyone in particular in.

 

The result is a parliament split between three main groups: the hastily assembled New Popular Front (NFP), a loose left-wing coalition of four very different parties, including the Eurosceptic and populist France Unbowed; Macron’s centrist Ensemble, which is not really a party but rather an ensemble; and RN, which is a very disciplined party. None has a majority on its own, and all the options being discussed for forming a government are likely to be unstable and fissiparous. The country faces a soaring national debt and large budget deficit. Expansive spending plans from the NFP could provoke the wrath of the bond markets and trouble the eurozone. According to the constitution, the president cannot call new elections for another year. In opposition, RN may well gain even more support, preparing for a presidential run by Le Pen or Jordan Bardella in 2027.

 

In sum, while Britain has a strong government but a weak position in Europe, France will have a strong position in Europe but a weak government. Macron’s authority and influence are greatly diminished—and that’s entirely his own fault. The former British prime minister Rishi Sunak probably miscalculated in calling an early election (and then conducted a rain-soaked, gaffe-filled campaign), but he would have been obliged to call an election by the end of the year anyway. The writing was on the wall for the Conservatives after 14 years in power during which they have done such damage to the country. Macron, by contrast, had a relative although not an absolute majority for his centrist grouping in a parliament elected until 2027, the year in which his presidential term ends.

 

I remember watching him in Normandy on the D-day anniversary on June 6 and thinking, “there’s a man who has succumbed to hubris.” Just three days later, the “Jupiterian” president made his hasty, melodramatic announcement of a snap parliamentary election, manifesting that particularly pernicious form of stupidity that he unfortunately shares with some elite British advocates of Brexit: the stupidity of highly educated and intelligent people. As a result, Jupiter has become Icarus. Calling for a political “clarification,” he has achieved the opposite.

 

For all of Europe, the tragedy is that Macron has also been the most powerful advocate of what Europeans urgently need in an overheating world torn between Putin, Trump, and Xi Jinping: more unity, more coherence, more power. As he puts it: l’Europe puissance. He has recently become the most influential West European voice in favor of increased support for an embattled Ukraine, whose fate today hangs in the balance. Only a few weeks ago, Macron was warning that “Europe is mortal.” Now, in an act of folly and hubris, he has stabbed both himself and Europe in the back.

 

Opinion - Timothy Garton Ash

 

Credit: The Guardian 2024-07-10

 

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yup, who'd have thunk it. the uk boringly stable, for now, while the US and france are on the edge of chaos.

 

 

2 hours ago, Social Media said:

The surprising election results in Britain

 

Nobody was even a tiny bit surprised about the election result in the UK - it was a foregone conclusion since as long ago as last year.

 

Sunak was hated by his own party members which is why they denied a member vote to select him as new PM and he eventually won by default after Boris dropped out.

Just a few months before he was rejected as party leader - which means PM if you're part is running the country - by the members in a mass vote.

They tore apart their own party deliberately and this result is exactly what the Conservatives deserve.

However, this shower of bastards who just got elected will destroy the country beyond repair - they're going to get what they voted for.

 

Edited July 9, 20241 yr by ukrules

1 hour ago, ukrules said:

 

Nobody was even a tiny bit surprised about the election result in the UK - it was a foregone conclusion since as long ago as last year.

 

Sunak was hated by his own party members which is why they denied a member vote to select him as new PM and he eventually won by default after Boris dropped out.

Just a few months before he was rejected as party leader - which means PM if you're part is running the country - by the members in a mass vote.

They tore apart their own party deliberately and this result is exactly what the Conservatives deserve.

However, this shower of bastards who just got elected will destroy the country beyond repair - they're going to get what they voted for.

 

It has been going tits up for years

3 hours ago, Social Media said:

A key reason for the scale of Labour’s victory was the split right-wing vote between the Conservatives and Nigel Farage’s Reform party, which is the British equivalent of Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, Germany’s AfD, or Italy’s Fratelli d’Italia, channeling widespread popular economic and cultural concerns into the scapegoating of immigration.

One might, quite legitimately, question whether Reform UK is the British equivalent of National Rally, AfD or Fratelli d'Italia. Reform UK is right of centre, but certainly not extreme right; unless of course you work from the premise that anyone to the right of Labour is a raving fascist!

 

The article is however right that the French election was not a victory for any party, but rather a (successful) attempt to manipulate their voting system to keep RN out. Now they have to form a government and function as such. It will be interesting. France is, politically speaking, knackered.

 

Mind you, by the same token, one might question whether Labour's remarkable majority (achieved with a reduced vote share and a remarkably low turnout) was less a sign of burning enthusiasm for its policies than a desire to get rid of the deeply (and rightly) unpopular Tory party.

 

 

Edited July 10, 20241 yr by herfiehandbag

1 hour ago, ukrules said:

However, this shower of bastards who just got elected will destroy the country beyond repair - they're going to get what they voted for.

 

My goodness, the reality of what actually is and the damage that has actually been done these past 14 years completely flipped into a pre-canned blame game directed at the Government that has the job of fixing the mess.

 

 

22 minutes ago, herfiehandbag said:

one might question whether Labour's remarkable majority (achieved with a reduced vote share and a remarkably low turnout) was less a sign of burning enthusiasm for its policies than a desire to get rid of the deeply (and rightly) unpopular Tory party.

Mostly a vote-against rather than a vote-for. But in any case a nice example of how, when more than 2 parties are competing seriously, first-past-the-post produces a seriously out-of-kilter result (in this case some 60%+ of seats from some 30%+ of votes).

 

Time the UK modernized itself with preferential voting.

Sorry, but left wing governments and stability do not go hand in hand - and that is shown world wide

The French are revolting, nothing new there

11 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

Sorry, but left wing governments and stability do not go hand in hand - and that is shown world wide

Yea ... I'm a bit suspect myself.   I was thinking, more cowering to the propaganda and powers to be.  2 party system (actually just one), doesn't work.   Seems every cycle, you just think you're voting for a different party, always the lesser of 2 evils, as tired of getting screwed by the present party.

 

Till you realize, they suck also, let's go back to the other idiots.   After a while, reality should sink in, you're screwed no matter what.

 

By then, hopefully, you planned well, and can retire elsewhere ... 

The most biased article I can remember reading.

 

I don't even know where to start. 😃

14 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

By then, hopefully, you planned well, and can retire elsewhere

 

Exactly.

 

I am grateful every day I wake up in Thailand away from the cancer of Wokeism/Liberalism that is destroying the West one country at a time. 

 

I don't even miss the TV any more. I'd rather watch midgets chasing Ladyboys to Boinggggg sounds than suffer some lecture about misgendering on Doctor Who or the BBC trying to terrify it's viewers about climate change. 

2 hours ago, herfiehandbag said:

One might, quite legitimately, question whether Reform UK is the British equivalent of National Rally, AfD or Fratelli d'Italia. Reform UK is right of centre, but certainly not extreme right; unless of course you work from the premise that anyone to the right of Labour is a raving fascist!

 

The article is however right that the French election was not a victory for any party, but rather a (successful) attempt to manipulate their voting system to keep RN out. Now they have to form a government and function as such. It will be interesting. France is, politically speaking, knackered.

 

Mind you, by the same token, one might question whether Labour's remarkable majority (achieved with a reduced vote share and a remarkably low turnout) was less a sign of burning enthusiasm for its policies than a desire to get rid of the deeply (and rightly) unpopular Tory party.

 

 

 

 

Your final paragraph is spot on.........................the Tories handed government to Labour on a plate.

mass importation allowed by politicians, made sure over the years, to get them new voters but leaves the original population behind, to favor the new that never contributed to anything, go figure ...

 

france is more north africa in some neighborhoods

 

UK have millions of pakistani's

5 hours ago, herfiehandbag said:

One might, quite legitimately, question whether Reform UK is the British equivalent of National Rally, AfD or Fratelli d'Italia. Reform UK is right of centre, but certainly not extreme right; unless of course you work from the premise that anyone to the right of Labour is a raving fascist!

This sentence started off well and was interesting, but then by the end it just subtly parrots another agenda driven motive. It's not really important if it is 'extreme right', 'far right', 'hard right' or 'more right than most other parties right'. The tiresome (non-) dialogue and diatribes trying to shut down debate and legitimate concerns by people, some of whom have never voted for a left of centre government in their lives, is, however, extreme.

 

So far, on the handful of UK political threads on here, we have people blaming Labour (5 days after an election) for Tory policies because they are desperate to blame 'the left' for everything. I'd suggest that's extreme  - extremely one-sided. 

 

We have had people barely able to control their blood pressure over the recent 'debacle' of a general election, claiming that 90% of the people were unaware of the FPTP system that the UK has used in every general election for near 75 years. I'd suggest that's also extreme - extremely ignorant.

 

We've had people blaming the left for all the immigration problems, despite having a net positive immigration for the last 30 years - 17 of which were under right-wing Tory rule. We have people who until the recent election voted Tory repeatedly, despite immigration levels rising. First they blamed the EU; then it was France; now it is Labour. The latest, as evidenced by recent posts, is to lump the Tories in with Labour (yet still imply it's a problem of the left). Maybe people made a mistake voting Tory - but whisper that, lest you be mistaken for a red-capped communist comrade.

 

Maybe it was unintentional but I feel like your post above takes a swipe at the left whilst implying anyone taking a swipe back at the right has lost their marbles (for only marble-less lunatic lefties would think anyone right of Labour are fascists). That's extreme too - extremely self-defeating for a debate. I appreciate though that you were trying to be humorous, so I'll give you the benefit of the doubt.

 

5 hours ago, herfiehandbag said:

but rather a (successful) attempt to manipulate their voting system to keep RN out.

 

There was no 'manipulation'. You are implying coercion or something underhand using that word (sounding exactly like Mme le Pen). It was a strategy, visible, legal and democratic - one which the French voters were aware of before placing their vote. The majority of French people evidently supported this strategy.

 

What happens next is anyone's guess. The French politicians now have a job to do and if they don't figure out how to do it well one assumes Mme le Pen has every chance of becoming the next President, in another visible, legal and democratic election.

2 hours ago, john donson said:

UK have millions of pakistani's

Not quite, as of the last Census (2021) some 1.6 million people described themselves as of Pakistani descent or Pakistani-born. 

5 hours ago, JonnyF said:

The most biased article I can remember reading.

 

I don't even know where to start. 😃

Of course it is. No-one would read the Guardian if they wanted unbiased journalism.

And no one would read tbe Daily Telegraph, Express or Mail unless they were Tory sheeple.

A beacon only when compared To a <deleted>show. 

 

How desperate do you have to be to make the comparison under these circumstances?