Blinken Raises Alarm Over Iran’s Nuclear Weapon Breakout Time

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US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has raised alarm about the rapid advancement of Iran's nuclear program, stating that the breakout time—the period needed to produce sufficient weapons-grade material for a nuclear weapon—is now estimated to be just one to two weeks. This stark assessment represents the shortest breakout time ever referenced by US officials, highlighting a significant escalation in Iran's nuclear capabilities.

 

"Where we are now is not in a good place," Blinken remarked during the Aspen Security Forum on Friday. He pointed out that the situation has deteriorated since the nuclear agreement was abandoned, leaving Iran alarmingly close to obtaining enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon. Although Iran has not yet produced a weapon, Blinken emphasized that this remains a critical area of monitoring for the US.

 

Blinken reiterated the US policy of preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, stressing a preference for achieving this goal through diplomatic means. However, this task has become increasingly challenging as Iran has made significant strides in its nuclear program. Over a year ago, a top US Defense Department official indicated that Iran could produce "one bomb’s worth of fissile material" in approximately 12 days. The current assessment marks a further reduction in the breakout time.

 

The Biden administration has engaged in over a year of indirect negotiations with Iran to revive the Iran nuclear deal, from which the US withdrew in 2018 under the Trump administration. These efforts collapsed in late 2022, as the US accused Iran of making "unreasonable" demands related to a probe by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) into unexplained traces of uranium found at undisclosed Iranian sites. Subsequently, the administration maintained that the Iran nuclear deal was "not on the agenda."

 

Despite Iran's new president indicating openness to engagement with the West, US officials are skeptical about the possibility of returning to the nuclear deal. A senior State Department official noted that the world has changed significantly since talks broke down, with Iran engaging in numerous escalatory acts, making a return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) non-viable. "We’re in a very different world, a lot of time has elapsed, Iran has done a lot of things that make a return to JCPOA non-viable," the official stated.

 

The State Department also expressed doubts about any substantial policy changes following the recent election in Iran. "We have no expectations that this election will lead to a fundamental change in Iran’s direction or its policies," said State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller. He pointed out that ultimate decision-making power lies with Iran's supreme leader, who has consistently taken a confrontational stance. 

 

"Obviously, if the new president had the authority to make steps to curtail Iran’s nuclear program, to stop funding terrorism, to stop destabilizing activities in the region, those would be steps that we would welcome. But needless to say, we don’t have any expectations that that’s what’s likely to ensue," Miller added.

 

This latest development underscores the growing complexity and urgency of the international community's efforts to address Iran's nuclear ambitions. With the breakout time reduced to mere weeks, the window for diplomatic solutions appears to be rapidly closing, necessitating a reassessment of strategies to prevent the emergence of a new nuclear-armed state.

 

Credit: CNN 2024-07-22

 

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[Cryingdick]

Fear not. Biden still has six months to solve this

[Tug]

Thanks trump……NOT!