Post Convention

[earlinclaifornia]

How large of a bump is the Harris/Walz going to see in the National polling Summary

[maesariang]

Minus 2

[earlinclaifornia]

Polls are a one day snapshot.

Trends are the real factors.

[novacova]

The RNC was an economic boon for Milwaukee. Ahead of the DNC, store owners in Chicago are boarding up their doors and windows. So which way, America?

[maesariang]

Everyone is waiting for a debate.

[RSD1]

  On 8/19/2024 at 12:13 PM, maesariang said:

Everyone is waiting for a debate.

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ok @susanlea

[Danderman123]

  On 8/19/2024 at 5:52 AM, earlinclaifornia said:

How large of a bump is the Harris/Walz going to see in the National polling Summary

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I don't know how big the bump will be in terms of percentage.

 

I do know it will move Harris' lead beyond the margin of error in many polls.

[maesariang]

  On 8/20/2024 at 8:44 AM, Danderman123 said:

I don't know how big the bump will be in terms of percentage.

 

I do know it will move Harris' lead beyond the margin of error in many polls.

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Like in 2016 

[maesariang]

https://www.realclearpolling.com/elections/president/2024/battleground-states

[gargamon]

RealClearPolling includes Rasmussen reports polling which all other poll aggregators remove because it is clearly skewed republican. Racetothewh is  much more accurate.

[maesariang]

  On 8/21/2024 at 12:47 PM, gargamon said:

RealClearPolling includes Rasmussen reports polling which all other poll aggregators remove

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Lol

 

Most polls are skewed left wing. Rasmussen is the only one right. Averaging 5 left wing polls gives you a left wing average 

[maesariang]

10 out of last 13 polls in 2020 were skewed left.

 

 

[maesariang]

Fox News +8

Rassmussen +1

 

The average was perfect.

 

The current average of those two has Trump winning.

[maesariang]

Last 3 Penns polls all +1 Trump.

 

 

[Danderman123]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/?ex_cid=abcpromo

 

Harris is pulling ahead of Trump.

[Danderman123]

https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/trump-harris-polls

 

The Economist:

[thaibeachlovers]

  On 8/21/2024 at 10:24 PM, Danderman123 said:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/?ex_cid=abcpromo

 

Harris is pulling ahead of Trump.

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I'm sure I read a post from you a while back saying that polls this far ahead are pointless. Am I mistaken, and it was someone else said that?

[earlinclaifornia]

  On 8/21/2024 at 10:55 PM, thaibeachlovers said:

I'm sure I read a post from you a while back saying that polls this far ahead are pointless. Am I mistaken, and it was someone else said that?

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You are absolutly correct on that point

Trends, as a snapshot are all anyone can be assured of.