Swing State Polls Suggest Trump Could Edge Out Harris in Crucial 2024 Battle

[Cameroni]

6 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Because part of polling is determining the turnout rates for different cohorts. And in those special races, it looks like that is what happened. And why would Trump be running scared and foolish on the abortion issue if he didn't see it as a threat?

 

Yes, indeed but I think both camps will be motivated to turn out to vote. The Democrats because they hate Trump so, due to abortion and the Trump supporters because they love Trump so, even more after the assasination attempt and because they despise the current administration with a passion.

 

In terms of abortion, Trump's issue is that he's a New York billionaire, he's firmly pro choice, but he has to pretend he's pro-Life for his Christian and right wing base. We saw again how he changed his vote in Florida due to conservatives reigning him in.

 

Indeed, Trump is aware that abortion can lose him votes, but if he's smart he'd realise that that ship has sailed, pro choice women will never vote for him, even if he professes he's pro choice for eternity.

Edited September 4 by Cameroni

[placeholder]

1 minute ago, Cameroni said:

 

Yes, indeed but I think both camps will be motivated to turn out to vote. The Democrats because they hate Trump so, due to abortion and the Trump supporters because they love Trump so, even more after the assasination attempt and because they despise the current administration with a passion.

 

In terms of abortion, Trump's issue is that he's a New York billionaire, he's firmly pro choice, but he has to pretend he's pro-Life for his Christian and right wing base. We saw again how he changed his vote in Florida due to conservatives reigning him in.

 

Indeed, Trump is aware that abortion can lose him votes, but if he's smart he'd realise that that ship has sailed, pro choice women will never vote for him, even if he professes he's pro choice for eternity.

If it was just about Democrats hatred for Trump then why did the poll numbers jump after Harris replaced Biden? Why did Democratic voter registrations particularly for young people jump after Harris replaced Biden?

 As for " if he's smart he'd realise that that ship has sailed,", given his ridiculous attempts to mitigate his disadvantage when it comes to abortion, the evidence about his intelligence is clear enough.

[Cameroni]

9 minutes ago, placeholder said:

If it was just about Democrats hatred for Trump then why did the poll numbers jump after Harris replaced Biden?

 

I think that had a lot to do with the Democrat media machine using everything from Charlie XCX and Gen Z vernacular to non-stop Harris reports on MSNBC, ABC, CBS, CNN etc. It was to a large degree manufactured by the media, but it also reflected the palpable relief that no-hoper Biden really was gone.

 

However, Carville and others have already warned that this euphoria won't be very useful when Harris is faced with the cold hard reality of a very  close race soon.

 

9 minutes ago, placeholder said:

As for " if he's smart he'd realise that that ship has sailed,", given his ridiculous attempts to mitigate his disadvantage when it comes to abortion, the evidence about his intelligence is clear enough.

 

Well, one can understand candidates doing everything they think will get them any votes. Trumps support for reasonable choice and IVF may get him some, but I think overall he'd be best served to underline that he's a red blooded male and appeal to male voters. Those for whom abortion is a real issue are quite unlikely to be voting Trump, just my opinion. I'm not convinced it's such a major issue in real numbers though.

Edited September 4 by Cameroni

[placeholder]

9 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

 

I think that had a lot to do with the Democrat media machine using everything from Charlie XCX and Gen Z vernacular to non-stop Harris reports on MSNBC, ABC, CBS, CNN etc. It was to a large degree manufactured by the media, but it also reflected the palpable relief that no-hoper Biden really was gone.

 

However, Carville and others have already warned that this euphoria won't be very useful when Harris is faced with the cold hard reality of a very  close race soon.

 

 

Well, one can understand candidates doing everything they think will get them any votes. Trumps support for reasonable choice and IVF may get him some, but I think overall he'd be best served to underline that he's a red blooded male and appeal to male voters. Those for whom abortion is a real issue are quite unlikely to be voting Trump, just my opinion. I'm not convinced it's such a major issue in real numbers though.

Where was that media machine during those special elections?

And all those young people registering to vote including a 175% jump in young black women's registration numbers?

Trump's lunacy in addressing abortion including the allegation that  Democrats support post birth abortion is not going to help him one bit. Quite the contrary. All the Democrats have to do is show Trump enthusiastically claiming credit for the overturning of Roe v Wade. And his bizarre assertion that everyone wanted to end Roe v Wade but only he could do it. No way he can run away from all that.

[stevenl]

15 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

 

I think that had a lot to do with the Democrat media machine using everything from Charlie XCX and Gen Z vernacular to non-stop Harris reports on MSNBC, ABC, CBS, CNN etc. It was to a large degree manufactured by the media, but it also reflected the palpable relief that no-hoper Biden really was gone.

 

However, Carville and others have already warned that this euphoria won't be very useful when Harris is faced with the cold hard reality of a very  close race soon.

 

 

Well, one can understand candidates doing everything they think will get them any votes. Trumps support for reasonable choice and IVF may get him some, but I think overall he'd be best served to underline that he's a red blooded male and appeal to male voters. Those for whom abortion is a real issue are quite unlikely to be voting Trump, just my opinion. I'm not convinced it's such a major issue in real numbers though.

"However, Carville and others have already warned that this euphoria won't be very useful when Harris is faced with the cold hard reality of a very  close race soon."

That euphoria will lead to a ground game that will get them many votes. That enthusiasm is lacking in the trump campaign.

[Cameroni]

1 minute ago, placeholder said:

Where was that media machine during those special elections?

And all those young people registering to vote including a 175% jump in young black women's registration numbers?

Trump's lunacy in addressing abortion including the allegation that  Democrats support post birth abortion is not going to help him one bit. Quite the contrary. All the Democrats have to do is show Trump enthusiastically claiming credit for the overturning of Roe v Wade. And his bizarre assertion that everyone wanted to end Roe v Wade but only he could do it. No way he can run away from all that.

 

A recent survey found that 12% of all voters thought abortion was the most important issue in the election. That correlates quite exactly with the 13% lead Harris has with women, which Clinton also had.

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/07/health/abortion-elections-kff-survey/index.html

 

So yes, like I said, no argument there, with abortion, Trump will not win any women over. But those people for whom abortion is a really important issue, they're not a very large number. Most voters care far more about other issues like the economy, where Harris in turn has embarassed herself badly. Her price fixing nonsense was universally ridiculed.

 

Young black women, of course, they were always going to vote Democrat anyway. But they're again a small minority.

 

[Cameroni]

5 minutes ago, stevenl said:

That euphoria will lead to a ground game that will get them many votes. That enthusiasm is lacking in the trump campaign.

 

Or it could lead to turnout complacency, as was the case with Clinton. 

 

The enthusiasm is not "lacking" in the Trump camp, it's just a little lower, 60% to 68%. But if we have a conversation after the debate and Trump comes up with some of his usual showman performances that will most likely change the figures dramatically.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/09/03/harris-voters-enthusiasm-surpasses-trumps-in-major-turnaround-heres-why-that-matters/

[stevenl]

38 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

 

Or it could lead to turnout complacency, as was the case with Clinton. 

 

The enthusiasm is not "lacking" in the Trump camp, it's just a little lower, 60% to 68%. But if we have a conversation after the debate and Trump comes up with some of his usual showman performances that will most likely change the figures dramatically.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/09/03/harris-voters-enthusiasm-surpasses-trumps-in-major-turnaround-heres-why-that-matters/

I was talking about campaign, your link refers to voters.

Also among voters the turnaround is remarkable.

[Cameroni]

If you want enthusiasm...look for the prophet...

 

https://theconversation.com/trumps-die-hard-support-may-be-explained-by-one-of-his-most-misunderstood-character-traits-charisma-236836

[placeholder]

1 hour ago, Cameroni said:

 

A recent survey found that 12% of all voters thought abortion was the most important issue in the election. That correlates quite exactly with the 13% lead Harris has with women, which Clinton also had.

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/07/health/abortion-elections-kff-survey/index.html

 

So yes, like I said, no argument there, with abortion, Trump will not win any women over. But those people for whom abortion is a really important issue, they're not a very large number. Most voters care far more about other issues like the economy, where Harris in turn has embarassed herself badly. Her price fixing nonsense was universally ridiculed.

 

Young black women, of course, they were always going to vote Democrat anyway. But they're again a small minority.

 

Once again, it's not just about the percentage of of women it's important to, but how it affects actual turnout. And really, a 175% jump in young black women registering to vote would have happened anyway? And all the other jumps in voter registration would have happened anyway?

[placeholder]

1 hour ago, Cameroni said:

 

A recent survey found that 12% of all voters thought abortion was the most important issue in the election. That correlates quite exactly with the 13% lead Harris has with women, which Clinton also had.

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/07/health/abortion-elections-kff-survey/index.html

 

So yes, like I said, no argument there, with abortion, Trump will not win any women over. But those people for whom abortion is a really important issue, they're not a very large number. Most voters care far more about other issues like the economy, where Harris in turn has embarassed herself badly. Her price fixing nonsense was universally ridiculed.

 

Young black women, of course, they were always going to vote Democrat anyway. But they're again a small minority.

 

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- A record-high 32% of U.S. voters say they would only vote for a candidate for major office who shares their views on abortion. The importance of a candidate’s abortion stance to one’s vote is markedly higher among pro-choice voters than it was during the 2020 presidential election cycle, while pro-life voters’ intensity about voting on the abortion issue has waned. Also, voters’ greater intensity on the issue today compared with 2020 is explained mainly by Democrats, while Republicans and independents have shown little change.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/645836/record-share-electorate-pro-choice-voting.aspx

[stevenl]

28 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

If you want enthusiasm...look for the prophet...

 

https://theconversation.com/trumps-die-hard-support-may-be-explained-by-one-of-his-most-misunderstood-character-traits-charisma-236836

Please no more objections when people call it a cult. From your link.

"It’s my belief that Trump is not just an ordinary politician – people think he is a spiritual leader offering to bring them to the promised land."

 

"Right-wing evangelicals such as Paula White, Tony Perkins and Hank Kunneman praise him as a man fulfilling God’s will through his actions."

 

"Social media is filled with images of Trump being supported by Jesus, or even of Trump being crucified like Jesus."

[placeholder]

1 hour ago, Cameroni said:

 

Or it could lead to turnout complacency, as was the case with Clinton. 

 

The enthusiasm is not "lacking" in the Trump camp, it's just a little lower, 60% to 68%. But if we have a conversation after the debate and Trump comes up with some of his usual showman performances that will most likely change the figures dramatically.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/09/03/harris-voters-enthusiasm-surpasses-trumps-in-major-turnaround-heres-why-that-matters/

From that article:

Excitement among Harris voters now outpaces excitement among Trump voters, according to an Aug. 25-28 USA Today/Suffolk University poll of likely voters that found 68% of Harris supporters are “very excited” to vote for her, compared to 60% of Trump voters.

In June, before Harris launched her campaign, just 30% of President Joe Biden’s supporters said they were “very excited” about voting for him, compared to 59% of Trump supporters who said the same about the former president, USA Today/Suffolk polling found.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/645836/record-share-electorate-pro-choice-voting.aspx

[placeholder]

1 hour ago, Cameroni said:

. But if we have a conversation after the debate and Trump comes up with some of his usual showman performances that will most likely change the figures dramatically.

 

What "usual showman performances" are you referring to? When has Trump ever done well in the debates? As for Trump's charisma...has he ever been a popular president? Remember in 2018 when the economy was doing well and voters slammed the Republicans? That's some potent charisma he's got.

[earlinclaifornia]

13 hours ago, placeholder said:

Got a link to a credible source that shows Trump beat Clinton in the debates?

As for the Biden Trump debate. Both performed abysmally. Biden just did worse.

I can help 

Trump lost BigLie

https://www.statista.com/statistics/616901/winner-of-second-debate-us-presidential-election/

[earlinclaifornia]

12 hours ago, Cameroni said:

I have to say I feel extremely good about Trump's chances to win. MSNBC's Steve Kornacki shows Trump behind only 3 points, but at the same time, Labor day, against Clinton he was  down 5 points and won, and against Biden he was down 9 and made it extremely close.

 

https://www.msnbc.com/katy-tur/watch/kornacki-harris-is-up-3-points-against-trump-nationally-218525765638

 

With only 3 behind on Labor day, this race is Trump's to lose. He just needs fracking country Pennsylvania and he's as good as in.

Not if he loses North Carolina

[riclag]

On 9/4/2024 at 6:01 AM, thesetat2013 said:

Given the frequency new polls are done. how can any of them be trusted. Surely, they are not conducting the polls with the same people each time. 

Most of these polls are twisted in favor 

of harris.

Its been my experience to watch 

Harvard / Harris Polls, unfortunately they took August off . The September one should be coming out toward the end of the month  with post debate bumps.

imop

[mdr224]

On 9/3/2024 at 1:37 PM, Social Media said:

 

Recent polling data from key battleground states suggests that former President Donald Trump could potentially secure a decisive victory against Vice President Kamala Harris in the upcoming 2024 presidential election. Surveys conducted by Trafalgar and Insider Advantage between August 28-31 indicate a possible path to 296 electoral votes for Trump, which could see him reclaim the presidency with a narrow but significant margin.

 

Trafalgar's polling, conducted from August 28 to August 30, reveals that Trump could sweep 44 electoral votes from the critical Blue Wall states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. These states have historically played a pivotal role in determining the outcome of presidential elections. According to the poll, Trump holds narrow leads in these states, with the results falling within the margin of error, suggesting that the race could still go either way.

 

In Michigan, Trump is ahead by the slimmest of margins, with 47% of the vote compared to Harris's 46.6%. In Pennsylvania, Trump has a slightly larger lead, with 47% compared to Harris's 45%. Although a 2% lead is not a landslide, it would represent a more substantial victory than Trump's razor-thin 0.72% margin in the state in 2016. Wisconsin presents a middle ground, with Trump leading Harris 47% to 46%, a narrow margin that reflects the state's history of close elections. Trump won Wisconsin by just 0.77% in 2016 but lost it by 0.63% in 2020.

 

Despite these encouraging numbers for Trump, it's important to note that the RealClearPolitics polling average currently shows Harris leading in all three of these states, with Michigan notably shifting in her favor on August 29.

 

In addition to the Blue Wall states, Insider Advantage's polling from August 29 to August 31 shows Trump leading in four other key battlegrounds: Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and Georgia. In Arizona, Trump is ahead by 49% to 48% in the race for the state's 11 electoral votes, a narrower margin than Biden's 0.3% victory in 2020, which would trigger an automatic recount in the state. Trump's strong support among independents, where he leads by more than 12 points, is a significant factor in his lead.

 

In Nevada, Trump is buoyed by a 9.5% lead among independents, giving him a slight edge over Harris, 48% to 47%, in a state he lost in both 2016 and 2020. Meanwhile, in North Carolina, Trump leads Harris 49% to 48%, a tighter margin than his 1.34% victory in the state in 2020. Despite Harris leading with independents in North Carolina, 50% to 46%, Trump could still secure the state's 16 electoral votes.

 

Georgia, however, presents the only deviation from this trend, with Harris narrowly leading Trump 48% to 47.6% in the race for the state's 16 electoral votes. Harris holds a razor-thin lead among independents, 45.2% to 45.1%.

While the polling data suggests that Trump could secure a significant victory in the Electoral College, the races in these battleground states remain extremely close, and the final outcome will depend on voter turnout and other factors in the coming months.

 

Credit: NYP 2024-09-04

 

 

 

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This article is inconsistent with polls posted on here about harris increasing her lead every day. Who to believe? Common sense is that predictions are meaningless as there have been no debates and its all for manipulation purposes 

[mdr224]

On 9/3/2024 at 4:27 PM, Tug said:

Bottom line Harris has twice the money available to campaign…..twice the money for adds…..trump is stripping women’s rights…..they ain’t happy about it they ain’t going back!meanwhile trump trump siphons off what cash they have managed to raise starving down ballot races…….yup he’s still a threat to be sure  and he is still trump.that being said it’s shaping up to be a republican defeat in all 3 branches. oh and btw Harris is so flush with cash she just sent 25 million for down ballot races!CHEERS!

So you think that buying an election is justified?

[stevenl]

14 minutes ago, mdr224 said:

This article is inconsistent with polls posted on here about harris increasing her lead every day. Who to believe? Common sense is that predictions are meaningless as there have been no debates and its all for manipulation purposes 

No debates is irrelevant to present polling.

[placeholder]

18 minutes ago, mdr224 said:

So you think that buying an election is justified?

You can thank the extreme right wingSsupreme Court and its Citizens United decision for allowing unlimited funds to pollute elections. When the supreme Court issued that decision, Republicans were overwhelmingly ecstatic about it.

[earlinclaifornia]

57 minutes ago, riclag said:

Most of these polls are twisted in favor 

of harris.

Its been my experience to watch 

Harvard / Harris Polls, unfortunately they took August off . The September one should be coming out toward the end of the month  with post debate bumps.

imop

From thier own site:

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As of September 2024, 28 people have voted on the AllSides Media Bias Rating for Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll. On average, those who disagree with our rating think this source has a Lean Right bias.

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[thesetat2013]

1 hour ago, stevenl said:

No debates is irrelevant to present polling.

I think you are wrong. It has a lot of meaning. perhaps what you meant to say was the present polling is irrelevant because there has been no debate? 

Look at how the debate affected the polls when Biden tried it. Who is to say that Harris speaking without a prompter will have the same reaction? She surely does not know much about politics and running the government as shown by her time as VP. 

[stevenl]

3 minutes ago, thesetat2013 said:

I think you are wrong. It has a lot of meaning. perhaps what you meant to say was the present polling is irrelevant because there has been no debate? 

Look at how the debate affected the polls when Biden tried it. Who is to say that Harris speaking without a prompter will have the same reaction? She surely does not know much about politics and running the government as shown by her time as VP. 

No, that's not what i meant.

Present polling presents the present positions. So upcoming events are irrelevant since they can't change the present positions.

 

So now Harris knows nothing about politics when earlier, also after his first and hopefully only term, it was trump being the outsider not involved in politics. I guess some have come to realise he is the epitome of a swamp dweller though.

[Cameroni]

12 hours ago, stevenl said:

Please no more objections when people call it a cult. From your link.

"It’s my belief that Trump is not just an ordinary politician – people think he is a spiritual leader offering to bring them to the promised land."

 

"Right-wing evangelicals such as Paula White, Tony Perkins and Hank Kunneman praise him as a man fulfilling God’s will through his actions."

 

"Social media is filled with images of Trump being supported by Jesus, or even of Trump being crucified like Jesus."

 

Look, of course Trump plays up the saviour narrative, I just saw him on an interview saying he'd like to believe God saved him from assassination to save America. He does this, not because he's a religious man, but because he knows he's big, very big, with evangelical christians and they do see things through a religious lense.

 

Obviously his is a political movement and most of his supporters are not evangelical christians.

 

I thought that was a very good article about his charisma though.

Edited September 5 by Cameroni

[Cameroni]

12 hours ago, placeholder said:

What "usual showman performances" are you referring to? When has Trump ever done well in the debates? As for Trump's charisma...has he ever been a popular president? Remember in 2018 when the economy was doing well and voters slammed the Republicans? That's some potent charisma he's got.

 

For instance, these here:

 

 

He's got unusual media command, and exceptional charisma. Of course, many hate him and he'll never be universally popular. But even his opponents, well those with intellectual honesty, will admit he has unusual charisma.

Edited September 5 by Cameroni

[placeholder]

1 hour ago, Cameroni said:

 

For instance, these here:

 

 

He's got unusual media command, and exceptional charisma. Of course, many hate him and he'll never be universally popular. But even his opponents, well those with intellectual honesty, will admit he has unusual charisma.

Cherry picking much? He may have charisma. One thing about it is that it works more effectively in a negative than positive way.  And you still haven't provided any evidence that Trump performed well in previous debates. In the past debate, he and Biden both performed dismally, But Biden did worse. 

[Cameroni]

31 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Cherry picking much? He may have charisma. One thing about it is that it works more effectively in a negative than positive way.  And you still haven't provided any evidence that Trump performed well in previous debates. In the past debate, he and Biden both performed dismally, But Biden did worse. 

 

I know what you're saying, that all the mainstream media said Clinton had won all 3 debates. However, that was not true, as we saw with the final result. Even at the time, the BBC came up with much more nuanced report on the debates.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37604731

 

Let's not forget at the time those debates took place Trump's campaign was reeling from reports on his sexual predator remarks, and Clinton had the chance to kill him off for good in those debates. The opposite happened, he came back to life and won the election. So if we look at the actual result, one has to conclude that Clinton failed to do what she set out to accomplish. Having said that, she did have the courage to debate with Trump on the prowl, mics on, imagine that with Harris.

 

I'm sure when Harris debates with Trump, she will not have a senior moment like Biden. Though she will lose the debate, it won't be as obvious, like with Clinton, however, all the mainstream media will again crow how Harris won the debate. And most likely Trump will proceed to win the  election again.

Edited September 5 by Cameroni

[earlinclaifornia]

12 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

 

I know what you're saying, that all the mainstream media said Clinton had won all 3 debates. However, that was not true, as we saw with the final result. Even at the time, the BBC came up with much more nuanced report on the debates.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37604731

 

Let's not forget at the time those debates took place Trump's campaign was reeling from reports on his sexual predator remarks, and Clinton had the chance to kill him off for good in those debates. The opposite happened, he came back to life and won the election. So if we look at the actual result, one has to conclude that Clinton failed to do what she accomplished. Having said that, she did have the courage to debate with Trump on the prowl, mics on, imagine that with Harris.

 

I'm sure when Harris debates with Trump, she will not have a senior moment like Biden. Though she will lose the debate, it won't be as obvious, like with Clinton, however, all the mainstream media will again crow how Harris won the debate. And most likely Trump will proceed to win the  election again.

Election Lose anyone? R

You aleady admitting most will watch and later crow how bad Trump is actually in real life

Edited September 5 by earlinclaifornia

[placeholder]

9 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

 

I know what you're saying, that all the mainstream media said Clinton had won all 3 debates. However, that was not true, as we saw with the final result. Even at the time, the BBC came up with much more nuanced report on the debates.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37604731

 

Let's not forget at the time those debates took place Trump's campaign was reeling from reports on his sexual predator remarks, and Clinton had the chance to kill him off for good in those debates. The opposite happened, he came back to life and won the election. So if we look at the actual result, one has to conclude that Clinton failed to do what she accomplished. Having said that, she did have the courage to debate with Trump on the prowl, mics on, imagine that with Harris.

 

I'm sure when Harris debates with Trump, she will not have a senior moment like Biden. Though she will lose the debate, it won't be as obvious, like with Clinton, however, all the mainstream media will again crow how Harris won the debate. And most likely Trump will proceed to win the  election again.

Well, if you're going to judge the results of the debates as a voter popularity contest,  then who got more votes? Trump or Clinton?