Swing State Polls Suggest Trump Could Edge Out Harris in Crucial 2024 Battle

[Social Media]

 

Recent polling data from key battleground states suggests that former President Donald Trump could potentially secure a decisive victory against Vice President Kamala Harris in the upcoming 2024 presidential election. Surveys conducted by Trafalgar and Insider Advantage between August 28-31 indicate a possible path to 296 electoral votes for Trump, which could see him reclaim the presidency with a narrow but significant margin.

 

Trafalgar's polling, conducted from August 28 to August 30, reveals that Trump could sweep 44 electoral votes from the critical Blue Wall states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. These states have historically played a pivotal role in determining the outcome of presidential elections. According to the poll, Trump holds narrow leads in these states, with the results falling within the margin of error, suggesting that the race could still go either way.

 

In Michigan, Trump is ahead by the slimmest of margins, with 47% of the vote compared to Harris's 46.6%. In Pennsylvania, Trump has a slightly larger lead, with 47% compared to Harris's 45%. Although a 2% lead is not a landslide, it would represent a more substantial victory than Trump's razor-thin 0.72% margin in the state in 2016. Wisconsin presents a middle ground, with Trump leading Harris 47% to 46%, a narrow margin that reflects the state's history of close elections. Trump won Wisconsin by just 0.77% in 2016 but lost it by 0.63% in 2020.

 

Despite these encouraging numbers for Trump, it's important to note that the RealClearPolitics polling average currently shows Harris leading in all three of these states, with Michigan notably shifting in her favor on August 29.

 

In addition to the Blue Wall states, Insider Advantage's polling from August 29 to August 31 shows Trump leading in four other key battlegrounds: Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and Georgia. In Arizona, Trump is ahead by 49% to 48% in the race for the state's 11 electoral votes, a narrower margin than Biden's 0.3% victory in 2020, which would trigger an automatic recount in the state. Trump's strong support among independents, where he leads by more than 12 points, is a significant factor in his lead.

 

In Nevada, Trump is buoyed by a 9.5% lead among independents, giving him a slight edge over Harris, 48% to 47%, in a state he lost in both 2016 and 2020. Meanwhile, in North Carolina, Trump leads Harris 49% to 48%, a tighter margin than his 1.34% victory in the state in 2020. Despite Harris leading with independents in North Carolina, 50% to 46%, Trump could still secure the state's 16 electoral votes.

 

Georgia, however, presents the only deviation from this trend, with Harris narrowly leading Trump 48% to 47.6% in the race for the state's 16 electoral votes. Harris holds a razor-thin lead among independents, 45.2% to 45.1%.

While the polling data suggests that Trump could secure a significant victory in the Electoral College, the races in these battleground states remain extremely close, and the final outcome will depend on voter turnout and other factors in the coming months.

 

Credit: NYP 2024-09-04

 

 

 

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[Tug]

Says the NYP and some far right polls,I doubt it but that being said trump still represents a threat to our democracy and will continue to do so until defeated and adjudicated ……hopefully with a nice long stretch in the pen.

[stoner]

15 minutes ago, Tug said:

Says the NYP and some far right polls

 

unlike the extreme left polls eh. 

[Tug]

1 minute ago, stoner said:

 

unlike the extreme left polls eh. 

Unlike an aggregate of all the polls

[stoner]

4 minutes ago, Tug said:

Unlike an aggregate of all the polls

 

all the extreme left ones yes. 

[MicroB]

Trumpf likes Rasmussen, and considers them the most accurate.

 

[Yagoda]

The only polls that count are the ones that show Harris leading. All others are MAGA cultredneck lies.

[thesetat2013]

Given the frequency new polls are done. how can any of them be trusted. Surely, they are not conducting the polls with the same people each time. 

[Tug]

54 minutes ago, Yagoda said:

The only polls that count are the ones that show Harris leading. All others are MAGA cultredneck lies.

Bottom line Harris has twice the money available to campaign…..twice the money for adds…..trump is stripping women’s rights…..they ain’t happy about it they ain’t going back!meanwhile trump trump siphons off what cash they have managed to raise starving down ballot races…….yup he’s still a threat to be sure  and he is still trump.that being said it’s shaping up to be a republican defeat in all 3 branches. oh and btw Harris is so flush with cash she just sent 25 million for down ballot races!CHEERS!

[stoner]

6 hours ago, EVENKEEL said:

 

 

ya but trump...... i remember back in the day i used to call him a turnip. 

[Chomper Higgot]

4 hours ago, Social Media said:

In Michigan, Trump is ahead by the slimmest of margins, with 47% of the vote compared to Harris's 46.6%

really?

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/

[Chomper Higgot]

3 minutes ago, stoner said:

 

ya but trump...... i remember back in the day i used to call him a turnip. 

Lindsey Graham used to be even more critical, then his true colors leaked out.

 

As you know, this happens.

[thaipo7]

3 hours ago, Tug said:

Says the NYP and some far right polls,I doubt it but that being said trump still represents a threat to our democracy and will continue to do so until defeated and adjudicated ……hopefully with a nice long stretch in the pen.

The far right polls are much more accurate than the Leftist polls.  The Left tells the truth on nothing.  Remember Hillary's 90% chance of winning in 2016?  Then the stop they addition of Trump state wins while they were looking for ballots for Her.  They were not prepared with all the ballots like in 2020.

[stoner]

5 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Lindsey Graham used to be even more critical, then his true colors leaked out.

 

As you know, this happens.

 

 

ps...your reply of trying to direct it back at me yet again is already noted. 

Edited September 4 by stats
flame comment removed

[CallumWK]

1 hour ago, Tug said:

Bottom line Harris has twice the money available to campaign…..twice the money for adds

 

Bottom line is, money can't buy you brains.

 

4 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

really?

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/

 

Congrats, you found a poll that contradicts the one in the OP, hooray. There are thousands of polls, and if I search long enough, maybe I even can find one that says Kennedy is in the lead. (unlikely though)

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Of course this above is what the New York Post would claim in the Rupert Murdoch property's relentless pro-Trump, anti-Democrat coverage. "Trump could..." But take it for just what it's worth. So "could" a lot of other outcomes result.

 

Other media outlets have a different read on the current state of things:

 

 

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/polls-president.html

 

https://archive.ph/cDPVi

 

 

The share of undecided voters in major battleground states

Polls in battleground states suggest that Harris and Trump are practically in a dead heat. That means even the few percent of voters who remain undecided could tip the scales one way or the other. Keeping an eye on these voters will be key to understanding what to expect in each of the swing states.

https://www.vox.com/politics/369735/2024-election-biden-harris-forecast-approval-undecided-spending

 

Edited September 4 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[Chomper Higgot]

No sign of JFK jr’s endorsement giving Trump a lift in the polls then.

[wombat]

Bringing RFK into the mix gives disgruntled Dems who wouldn't vote for Trump a protest vote.

RFK will win Trump the swing states.

Zuckerberg putting distance between Facebook and the Dems means he can see the writing on the wall.

I'd be having a cheeky bet on Trump to win.

[stevenl]

7 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

No sign of JFK jr’s endorsement giving Trump a lift in the polls then.

I think it did. Without it imo Harris would be clearly in front. But with the present momentum, Harris on the up, Trump in disarray and no ground game, if nothing special happens it is Harris 's to lose now.

[wombat]

8 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

No sign of JFK jr’s endorsement giving Trump a lift in the polls then.

With the political bias of American media the only poll that is real is the one on election day.

[earlinclaifornia]

Right Wing pollster 

 

The other one: The study ranked Rasmussen Reports 24th out of 28 polls in accuracy, one slot above Gallup.

 

https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-rasmussen-poll-1948012

 

[Fat is a type of crazy]

Most serious pollsters - left or right - are  going to want to get it right - despite the possible implications for there preferred candidate. If they don't get it right they'll adjust their methodologies as they want credibility. 

The media interpretation of the polls is a different story - they can  can pick the bits of the polls that suit their agenda - be it promoting a candidate or for the sake of entertainment. Fox News and other right wing media entertainment are worst at doing this in my opinion. 

[earlinclaifornia]

 

[earlinclaifornia]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-loses-top-volunteer-exposes-193813936.html

[Srikcir]

2 hours ago, Tug said:

Bottom line

For Trump to win a swing state can be offset by losing traditional Republican states. 

'The Trump campaign is reportedly abandoning New Hampshire on the belief that Trump cannot win there, and is also cutting spending in North Carolina'

Is Trump willing to lose traditional Republican votes for the POTUS in exchange for funds to defend against prosecution for alleged state and federal crimes? Duh!

'Trump Could Actually Lose Florida. Here’s Why.

After two years of Governor Ron DeSantis pushing his extremist agenda, there’s a case to be made that voters have had enough of the Republican Party’s obsession with culture wars.' 

[blazes]

1 hour ago, stoner said:

 

ya but trump...... i remember back in the day i used to call him a turnip. 

 

How clever of you....

[newnative]

1 hour ago, Chomper Higgot said:

No sign of JFK jr’s endorsement giving Trump a lift in the polls then.

     Maybe because he died in a plane crash years ago.  But, you're right-- wacko RFK Jr. just appealed to the same wackos that already support Trump so no lift.

[blazes]

6 hours ago, Social Media said:

Georgia, however, presents the only deviation from this trend, with Harris narrowly leading Trump 48% to 47.6% in the race for the state's 16 electoral votes.

 

It must be her fake Southern accent that's making all the difference in Georgia.

Pretty soon, she'll be offering us a French Canadian accent, and, with a bit of luck an Indian accent in the manner of Peter Sellers.

Edited September 4 by blazes

[stoner]

25 minutes ago, blazes said:

 

How clever of you....

 

how unclever of you to totally miss the point. 

[newnative]

6 minutes ago, blazes said:

 

It must be her fake Southern accent that's making all the difference in Georgia.

Pretty soon, she'll be offering us a French Canadian accent, and, with a bit of luck an Indian accent in the manner of Peter Sellers.

Or, could be that idiot Trump hugely insulted the Republican governor of Georgia.  Thank you, Donald, for being such an idiot.  Now, on to all the other swing states and let's insult the Republicans there.