Rising Baht Sparks Fears of Another 'Tom Yam Kung' Crisis

[chiang mai]

48 minutes ago, Enzian said:

Is it possible the BOT is not concentrating on inflation, but rather on discouraging borrowing and reducing the amount of household debt--something that the banks themselves should be doing through their underwriting practices but aren't doing very well? Also, higher--or rather, historically normal--rates should encourage saving in preference to consumption, which would improve household balance sheets. I can't see these current rates leading to deflation; I suspect it would take stronger medicine for that.

I think Thai rates weren't cut because doing so would mean even greater capital outflows and further decentivise capital inflows.

[JackGats]

I don't wish for the baht to become too weak. A strong baht keeps the cheap hordes away.

[baansgr]

11 hours ago, chiang mai said:

International Tourism is not Thailand's bread and butter, exports is, Tourism is nothing more than an additional course in the meal that helps with Consumer Spending at the grass roots level. International Tourism is 12% of GDP on a good day, exports is around 60%.

 

Also, can you show us how and where this manipulation of THB takes place, lots of people say it exists but nobody yet in over two decades on this forum has been able to say how and where! On the other hand, the map of USD/THB compared against DXY explains the THB rises and falls nicely.

Tourism GDP has been discussed till death many times and it's really 30%

[3NUMBAS]

12 hours ago, chiang mai said:

It's the nickname for the Asian Crash on 1997

Yeah 100 baht to the pound it was great

[chiang mai]

25 minutes ago, baansgr said:

Tourism GDP has been discussed till death many times and it's really 30%

Domestic and International, 22% combined at best, unless you can prove otherwise.

 

Domestic = 9%

International = 12%

[chiang mai]

1 hour ago, baansgr said:

Tourism GDP has been discussed till death many times and it's really 30%

 

[Dogmatix]

Prachai Leophairat, CEO of TPI Polene Public Company Limited was the biggest non-performing debtor in the Tom Yam Kung crisis because the baht declined so much that he couldn't service the foreign currency debt he had foolishly taken on.   Now he is whining about a rising baht.

 

[Karma80]

The Bangkok Post reports the Thai Central Bank admitted today it intervened in the Thai Baht and appreciated the value, although it happened faster than they thought. Seems this is an intentional strategy and the impacts on tourism have been considered....

[SingAPorn]

The Bhat is overvalued. No tourists will spend of if they do spend, they will spend far less. The proper rate for the Bhat should be to give no less then 45 THB for 1 €uro handed over the counter.

[Robert Tyrrell]

On 9/30/2024 at 9:06 AM, Eric Loh said:

Hard to understand the logic. 10% increase in Bath's exchange is due to the dollar depreciation by 10% against the Baht. Strange logic to compound both to 20%. Dollar depreciation is against all currencies; none spared. Other countries export will  faced the same increased in their local currencies. The baht appreciation will lower the cost of imports of raw materials and reduce the COP which they can deploy to leverage the Baht appreciation. Illogical comparison against TYK crisis which was due to excessive foreign debts and a small foreign reservce to defend the Baht. Not the situation now. 

The U.S. Treasury about 3-5 years ago put Thailand on a watch list for currency manipulation a no no in the Global Market.

[chrisbangkok]

On 9/30/2024 at 9:08 AM, Jenkins9039 said:

Not sure where you get that from.

 

1) When they <deleted> up in investing in UK Steel, they increased costs in Thailand for banking facilities to write off the debt hence there was fee(s) associated with card withdrawals (increases) from non domestic bank cards (as an example but there were many.

2) When they repo a property/asset they allow it to sit on their books rather than reduce (trust me i tried to buy a repo property that had a tree growing through it.

 

3) They spin out bad debt into new entities opposed to having it sit on their balance sheet bringing it down (hence SCB pushing CC into CardX).

I just made it up of course,  I know nothing as Sargeant Shultz would say .

[chiang mai]

43 minutes ago, Robert Tyrrell said:

The U.S. Treasury about 3-5 years ago put Thailand on a watch list for currency manipulation a no no in the Global Market.

Along with Switzerland, Germany and Vietnam!

 

Currency manipulation is not about exchange rates, it's about trade and buying more from the US.

 

https://www.cfr.org/article/tracking-currency-manipulation

[donmuang37]

On 9/30/2024 at 5:32 AM, Brn2Trvl said:

The rising Thai bhat, what the heck is being talked about here ?? every day I see the value of the bot go down for the last five months.

Really??  You need new glasses.  A couple of months ago we were getting over 36 baht/dollar.  Now we are getting 32 or less??  Where have you been??

[Brn2Trvl]

On 10/5/2024 at 1:38 PM, donmuang37 said:

Really??  You need new glasses.  A couple of months ago we were getting over 36 baht/dollar.  Now we are getting 32 or less??  Where have you been??

It says “ rising Thai bhat” not declining Thai bhat. It’s been in the 32’s for months.

[chiang mai]

2 minutes ago, Brn2Trvl said:

It says “ rising Thai bhat” not declining Thai bhat. It’s been in the 32’s for months.

The first time it fell below 33 was two and a half weeks ago!

 

[chiang mai]

CIMB expects USD/THB at 37 by year end!

 

https://www.cimbthai.com/en/personal/who-we-are/news-event/2024/news24.html

 

SCB expects 34/35

 

https://www.scbeic.com/en/detail/file/product/9509/gxps4fqlrg/Outlook-2Q2024-Full-report-ENG-20240704.pdf

[chiang mai]

USD stronger today, GBP weaker but THB much stronger, I guess capital inflows pay a role.