Early voting - battleground states

[theblether]

From Cook Report - talking about Georgia. 

 

It's notable that a place like Towns Co. (Trump +61 in '20) is at 92% of its final '20 turnout, while Clayton Co. (Biden +71) is at 69% of its '20 turnout," he wrote on X.

"Doesn't tell us who will win GA, just that Dems have more work to do than Rs to turn out their vote in the final days."

[theblether]

Georgia returned around 1,430,000 African-American votes in 2020. 88% win for Biden = 1,260,000 votes. Current early voting for A-A has broken 1 million so 400,000 left to equal the 2020 total. I think they'll sail past that. 

 

Total vote was 4,936,000 and already over 4 million have voted. The problem for Harris is that the rural whites are out in vast numbers. 

 

The other problem is that she is unlikely to hit 88% as she is no Joe Biden. Very tight in Georgia. 

 

 

[Jingthing]

The Russian scum allied with corrupt maga election officials are working on the state of Georgia. Turning the results in the nation of Georgia wasn't enough for Russia. 

 

 

 

 

[Danderman123]

53 minutes ago, theblether said:

Georgia returned around 1,430,000 African-American votes in 2020. 88% win for Biden = 1,260,000 votes. Current early voting for A-A has broken 1 million so 400,000 left to equal the 2020 total. I think they'll sail past that. 

 

Total vote was 4,936,000 and already over 4 million have voted. The problem for Harris is that the rural whites are out in vast numbers. 

 

The other problem is that she is unlikely to hit 88% as she is no Joe Biden. Very tight in Georgia. 

 

 

You are correct.

 

There is one glimmer of hope for Harris, 56% of early voters are female.

[theblether]

15 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

You are correct.

 

There is one glimmer of hope for Harris, 56% of early voters are female.

 

I forgot to add, while A-A are out in record numbers, they are only 25% of the vote - they were 29% in 2020. 

 

In raw terms, they are underperforming by 160,000 votes but the issue of "damned lies and statistics" comes into play. Before anything else is considered, they need to hit the same number of total votes as 2020. I think they'll do it. 

 

75% total turnout ( was 66% in 2020 ) would be 5.4 million. It's not out of the question. A-A would need 1.6 million to match the last turnout. Also possible. 

 

But all that said, my prediction for Georgia is 85% A-A vote for Kamala. 

 

 

 

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Edited November 2 by theblether

[Danderman123]

8 hours ago, theblether said:

Nevada has closed with 1,085,000 early votes. 

 

Mail in votes will still be collected. 

 

GOP 39%

Dems 34% 

 

Jon Ralston reckons it will take a landslide of late votes from Clark County to overturn the GOP lead. Looks like Nevada has gone for Trump, and Arizona - we'll see. 

 

 

 

You are correct about Nevada. It's all about Election Day turnout now, there is no Dem firewall.

[Danderman123]

6 hours ago, theblether said:

From Cook Report - talking about Georgia. 

 

It's notable that a place like Towns Co. (Trump +61 in '20) is at 92% of its final '20 turnout, while Clayton Co. (Biden +71) is at 69% of its '20 turnout," he wrote on X.

"Doesn't tell us who will win GA, just that Dems have more work to do than Rs to turn out their vote in the final days."

Yep, I just watched a Republican propaganda video about early voting with the same idiotic message about comparisons with 2020:

 

Republicans were told in 2020 not to vote early. So most did.

 

Democrats in 2020 were told that voting in person was dangerous due to COVID-19, so most didn't. They voted early very heavily.

 

So, in 2024, the Democratic early vote is down in comparison to 2020, and Republican early voting is up.

 

Duh....

 

Low information types look at the numbers and believe that this is good news for Trump.

 

 

[Danderman123]

Time for some calculations.

 

About 50% of the likely electorate have voted already. It looks to be 55% female. Since women back Harris 55-45, Trump needs to have Election Day turnout to be 55-45 male plus some margin. Also, turnout has to be 75 million plus on ED.

 

You can look at the video of people voting on Tuesday to see if it's heavily male.

[theblether]

2 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

Yep, I just watched a Republican propaganda video about early voting with the same idiotic message about comparisons with 2020:

 

Republicans were told in 2020 not to vote early. So most did.

 

Democrats in 2020 were told that voting in person was dangerous due to COVID-19, so most didn't. They voted early very heavily.

 

So, in 2024, the Democratic early vote is down in comparison to 2020, and Republican early voting is up.

 

Duh....

 

Low information types look at the numbers and believe that this is good news for Trump.

 

 

 

What do you mean low information types? GOP social media is constantly warning about "cannabilising" election day turn out. 

 

Dems are saying - we are behind, we'd prefer to be ahead, we've got some lifting to do. 

 

Just give it a rest, both sides are aware of the current reality and it's you that's spreading low IQ drivel. 

[theblether]

52 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Time for some calculations.

 

About 50% of the likely electorate have voted already. It looks to be 55% female. Since women back Harris 55-45, Trump needs to have Election Day turnout to be 55-45 male plus some margin. Also, turnout has to be 75 million plus on ED.

 

You can look at the video of people voting on Tuesday to see if it's heavily male.

 

That's normal for early voting. Women always vote more. The question is, is it white Republican women in record numbers? Because it looks like 4% of the African American vote has gone missing. 

 

 

[theblether]

To clarify. Early voting in Georgia is 25% A-A. Last time 29% overall turnout. 

 

Rural Georgia is out in record numbers. White rural women are out in vast numbers.

 

Kamala cannot afford a 4% drop in A-A voting. She cannot afford a record turnout in rural white women. 

 

 

[Jingthing]

2 minutes ago, theblether said:

To clarify. Early voting in Georgia is 25% A-A. Last time 29% overall turnout. 

 

Rural Georgia is out in record numbers. White rural women are out in vast numbers.

 

Kamala cannot afford a 4% drop in A-A voting. She cannot afford a record turnout in rural white women. 

 

 

You can say black. A-A sounds ridiculous. 

[nattaya09]

7 hours ago, theblether said:

To clarify. Early voting in Georgia is 25% A-A. Last time 29% overall turnout. 

 

Rural Georgia is out in record numbers. White rural women are out in vast numbers.

 

Kamala cannot afford a 4% drop in A-A voting. She cannot afford a record turnout in rural white women. 

 

 

Younger black men, 18-49, were trending away from Harris. I doubt Obama's version of the "you ain't black" lecture changed that. 

[theblether]

7 hours ago, nattaya09 said:

Younger black men, 18-49, were trending away from Harris. I doubt Obama's version of the "you ain't black" lecture changed that. 

 

I posted this on another thread 

 

 

[theblether]

 

[nattaya09]

34 minutes ago, theblether said:

 

Democrats can't get motivated for their candidate?

[theblether]

20 minutes ago, nattaya09 said:

Democrats can't get motivated for their candidate?

 

According to some of our "brighter" Dems on this forum the fact that they are underperforming and the GOP overperforming is all part of a cunning plan. 

 

They appear to be delighted that black turnout is down 14% in Georgia and that white rural women are voting in vast numbers. 

[cdemundo]

On 10/29/2024 at 7:24 PM, theblether said:

 

Polling averages don't matter now. The votes are flooding in at numbers no pollster could attempt to sample. 

 

A Dem analyst in Nevada reckons there's a high turnout of low preponderance voters in red areas. He says at the current rate he'll be able to call Nevada for Trump before election day. 

 

That's due to his estimated total turnout. I don't care what anyone says - no one anticipated Biden being hammered in Nevada. The substitution of Harris has not helped. 

 

 

"I don't care what anyone says"

 

Duly noted.

[theblether]

4 hours ago, cdemundo said:

"I don't care what anyone says"

 

Duly noted.

 

Duly noted? 

 

Ahahahahaha

 

Lookie here, the only Dem in the world that thought the GOP would be in the lead entering election day in Nevada. 

[Danderman123]

44 minutes ago, theblether said:

 

Duly noted? 

 

Ahahahahaha

 

Lookie here, the only Dem in the world that thought the GOP would be in the lead entering election day in Nevada. 

If you understood Nevada elections, you would know that the only number that matters now is the size of the Dem firewall in Clark county.

 

BTW, it's 40,000 votes 

[theblether]

 

Edited November 4 by theblether

[theblether]

 

[theblether]

Jon Ralston calls Nevada for Harris. To my calculation she would win the state by under 5000 votes. Recount territory. 

 

Prediction: Harris, 48.5 percent; Trump 48.2 percent; others and None of These Candidates, 3.3 percent.

[theblether]

The three assumptions in Nevada and no one knows - 

 

Independents break for Harris. I can see that. 

 

1.4 million votes with tens of thousands of mail in ballots to arrive by Friday. I can see that. 

 

The most dangerous one for Dems? Ralston believes that the Republicans have cannibalised their election day vote. I can see that too - but where it's dangerous is that with margins this small a few thousand low propensity GOP voters could swing the state. 

 

Extremely tight. 

 

 

.

Edited November 4 by theblether

[Danderman123]

On 11/3/2024 at 2:49 PM, theblether said:

 

What do you mean low information types? GOP social media is constantly warning about "cannabilising" election day turn out. 

 

Dems are saying - we are behind, we'd prefer to be ahead, we've got some lifting to do. 

 

Just give it a rest, both sides are aware of the current reality and it's you that's spreading low IQ drivel. 

My point is that using 2020 as a baseline for comparison is worthless. Republicans were told not to vote early in 2020, but this year, they are encouraged to vote early.

[Danderman123]

7 hours ago, theblether said:

 

Trump needs a better scheduler.