The Broken Promises of the Budapest Memorandum and Its Stark Lessons

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In 1994, a groundbreaking agreement was forged with Ukraine, a nation then holding the third-largest stockpile of nuclear weapons after the Soviet Union's dissolution. The Budapest Memorandum, signed by Russia, the United States, and the United Kingdom, guaranteed Ukraine's sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity in exchange for relinquishing its nuclear arsenal. The promise was clear: "Give up your nuclear weapons, and in return, we will respect your borders and independence." It seemed a prudent path toward global disarmament, reducing the likelihood of nuclear conflict.  

 

 

The agreement’s key provisions affirmed the signatories’ commitment to respect Ukraine’s borders and sovereignty, as well as to refrain from threatening or using force against the country. Yet, these assurances were first shattered in 2014 when Russia invaded and illegally annexed Crimea. The façade of cooperation completely crumbled on February 24, 2022, when Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. More than 1,000 days later, the war rages on, exposing not only Russia’s betrayal of the Memorandum but also the fragility of such international agreements.  

 

Ukraine’s decision to give up its nuclear weapons—a stockpile large enough to have made it a formidable nuclear power—was based on trust in the Memorandum’s guarantees. Without nuclear deterrence, Ukraine has faced Russia’s aggression, its sovereignty blatantly violated. Vladimir Putin’s actions reveal the hollowness of Russia’s promises, casting doubt on the credibility of multilateral agreements aimed at ensuring global security.  

 

Russia’s disregard for its commitment has implications far beyond Ukraine’s borders. The Budapest Memorandum is now a cautionary tale for any nation contemplating disarmament. If a country like Ukraine, once armed with a nuclear arsenal, can be invaded despite international guarantees, why would any other nation agree to surrender its nuclear capabilities? Worse still, this betrayal could encourage non-nuclear states to pursue weapons of mass destruction, further undermining global disarmament efforts.  

 

The Budapest Memorandum's failure has also eroded trust in multilateral institutions and their ability to uphold international law. Negotiating complex agreements is already a daunting task; seeing them ignored when geopolitics turn volatile is a devastating blow to the principles of diplomacy and cooperation. If such agreements cannot withstand the strains of conflict, what hope is there for resolving disputes or preventing future wars through peaceful means?  

 

Few people today are aware of the Budapest Memorandum and the commitments it enshrined. Yet its relevance is critical as the world grapples with questions of security, sovereignty, and the efficacy of international law. If treaties like this are disregarded, what other mechanisms exist to prevent a descent into global anarchy? For those who believe in the power of collective action to address shared challenges, the situation is deeply troubling.

 

The rule of law is under attack, and defending it demands more than words. The international community must confront the implications of Russia’s actions and recommit to upholding agreements like the Budapest Memorandum. Otherwise, the trust necessary for global cooperation—and the vision of a world free from nuclear threats—may be lost forever.

 

Based on a report by Virgin 2024-11-25

 

 

 

[candide]

The lesson from recent (and less recent) events is that it is obvious to all that a country without nuclear weapons can easily become a prey or a puppet.

 

 It may lead to nuclear proliferation.