Russia’s economy is doomed

[candide]

5 hours ago, Gweiloman said:

As easily as they (OPEC) can increase production they can also cut back on it. The post I replied to talked about a price of $66 in 2026. Do you honestly think the Middle Eastern oil producing countries will be happy with this price in 2026? I’m up to date but it seems like you need to learn some economics.

And what are your credentials for forecasting oil markets?

 

As mentioned by another poster, it seems that you also don't believe the drill baby drill fairy tale!

[thaibeachlovers]

19 hours ago, stevenl said:

I would presume the people making these forecasts have a lot more insight than an anonymous poster here.

That would apply to all the ones on here claiming the Russian economy is collapsing as well, including yourself.

In case you missed it, this forum is for poster's opinions. There are plenty of sites where you can read more factual information.

[stevenl]

2 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

That would apply to all the ones on here claiming the Russian economy is collapsing as well, including yourself.

In case you missed it, this forum is for poster's opinions. There are plenty of sites where you can read more factual information.

Difference is the poster i replied to is contradicting the experts, the people making these decisions, without any arguments.

[Gweiloman]

22 hours ago, stevenl said:

I would presume the people making these forecasts have a lot more insight than an anonymous poster here.

One would think so but over the past 3 years, practically every western experts’ prediction about the conflict, from military to economic has fallen flat on its face. Seems the most accurate predictions are those that are the complete opposite of the so called experts’.

[Gweiloman]

18 hours ago, candide said:

And what are your credentials for forecasting oil markets?

 

 

Common sense, something that seems to be lacking in the west.

[Gweiloman]

33 minutes ago, stevenl said:

Difference is the poster i replied to is contradicting the experts, the people making these decisions, without any arguments.

The experts making the decisions? Lol. The so called experts merely look at data and make guesses. The ones making the decisions on whether to increase or decrease oil production don’t give a rat’s ass as to what the “experts” say.

[stevenl]

3 minutes ago, Gweiloman said:

The experts making the decisions? Lol. The so called experts merely look at data and make guesses. The ones making the decisions on whether to increase or decrease oil production don’t give a rat’s ass as to what the “experts” say.

I call the people making the decision experts. Like the ones deciding on opening a new field depending on their price forecast.

[thaibeachlovers]

1 hour ago, stevenl said:

Difference is the poster i replied to is contradicting the experts, the people making these decisions, without any arguments.

As long as it's clear that it's an opinion I see no need to bring facts into it. Having been around "experts" all my working life, I doubt they know much anyway, given how many basic mistakes they make. No one has a working crystal ball ( though some like the D man thought they did ), so it's all looking at what is happening now and making a guess as to what will happen in the future.

[transam]

3 hours ago, Gweiloman said:

Common sense, something that seems to be lacking in the west.

Oh, you come from the West then..............🤭

[RuamRudy]

3 hours ago, Gweiloman said:

over the past 3 years, practically every western experts’ prediction about the conflict, from military to economic has fallen flat on its face.

 

Especially the Russian prediction that they were pushing at an open door, and that Kyiv would fall within three days!

[candide]

4 hours ago, Gweiloman said:

The experts making the decisions? Lol. The so called experts merely look at data and make guesses. The ones making the decisions on whether to increase or decrease oil production don’t give a rat’s ass as to what the “experts” say.

 

3 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

As long as it's clear that it's an opinion I see no need to bring facts into it. Having been around "experts" all my working life, I doubt they know much anyway, given how many basic mistakes they make. No one has a working crystal ball ( though some like the D man thought they did ), so it's all looking at what is happening now and making a guess as to what will happen in the future.

More baseless assertions. As if you had any idea about the organisation making the forecast....😆

 

The IEA works directly with producers, including OPEC.

 

 "Each year, the IEA, the International Energy Forum (IEF) and OPEC organize a Symposium on Energy Outlooks as part of a joint work programme. The symposium gathers senior analysts and delegates from oil companies and banks to discuss the IEA World Energy Outlook and OPEC’s World Oil Outlook. This dialogue is leading to greater convergence in the baseline data that underpins IEA and OPEC analyses."

 

https://www.iea.org/about/international-collaborations/opec

 

Of course, no forecast is expected to be 100% accurate. So this forecast is just the most likely scenario.

[Grumpy one]

On 11/30/2024 at 12:28 PM, AndreasHG said:

 

Thank you for the comment posted from Saint Petersburg.

Here some data on the Russian "Rubble" from an objective source: -16.64% in 12 months on the US$. No more sales of 'Rubbles' by the Russian Central Bank till the end of the year and key interest rate at 21% to support an otherwise plunging currency.

Wait a week for trump to stuff up the economy, the charts may change

[Will B Good]

On 11/30/2024 at 12:21 PM, Albo said:

Ukraine is doomed. Should have never listened to Biden.

 

Absolutely unwinnable and always was

 

Relax...we're all doomed.

[thaibeachlovers]

15 hours ago, RuamRudy said:

 

Especially the Russian prediction that they were pushing at an open door, and that Kyiv would fall within three days!

Must be lacking in anything relevant to now to keep rabbiting on about that.

Is that really all you have?

 

How about some comments on how the Ukrainians are winning in the East... oops, they are losing. Sorry about that.

 

Have a nice day.

[thaibeachlovers]

15 hours ago, Will B Good said:

 

Relax...we're all doomed.

On that I can agree with you.

[MicroB]

https://ceenergynews.com/oil-gas/russia-moldova-transnistria-buy-gas-europe/

 

 

First Putin threatens to stop supplying Europe with natural gas.

Putin said Europe would freeze to death without Russian natural gas

Europe stops buying Russian gas

Europe doesn't freeze to death

Russian natural gas gets cut off to Transnistria, on account of the country Russia is attacking, Ukraine, not being particularly interested in renewing an agreement that will allow Russian gas to flow to a breakaway enclave, Transniestria, that is home to the Russian Army's OGRF.

Transmistrian Russian people get a bit cold, ask their fellow Moldovans for help.

Russia will buy gas from Europe to supply Transnistria.

 

Putin remains the master strategist.

[MicroB]

https://theins.ru/en/news/278003

 

Quote

 

Viktor Danilov-Danilyan, head of the Institute of Water Problems at the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS), has called the recent Black Sea oil spill “the most serious environmental disaster in Russia since the beginning of the 21st century.” His comments came in an interview with Kommersant published on Jan. 17.

The story began on Dec. 15, when two tankers — Volgoneft-212 and Volgoneft-239 — sank in the Kerch Strait, releasing approximately 8,000 tons of heavy fuel oil into the Black Sea. Danilov-Danilyan called the resulting environmental catastrophe an “unprecedented event”:

 

“This is the first time such a large amount of fuel oil has been spilled. In my view, this is the most serious environmental disaster in Russia since the beginning of the 21st century… The diesel fuel spill in Norilsk in 2020 cannot be compared to today's situation. That incident was localized and quickly addressed due to favorable natural and weather conditions, as well as the availability of sufficient equipment.”

 

 

 

Oil spills are naturally terrible for marine life, wherever they happen, and marine transport remains quite a hazardout occupation anywhere in the world.

 

The Volgoneft-212 and Volgoneft-239 were part of a series of tankers called Volgoneft tankers, built in the 1970s. The name gives their purpose away. They were built to primarily transport oil down the Volga river to the Sea of Azov. They were capable of short sea shipping provided the chop was no more than 2 meters. For exporting oil, they were fine for doing ship to ship transfers within the relatively benign Sea of Azov. Ukrainian mining of the Kerch straits, plus Russia's increasing need to export whatever oil it can has lead to a change in shipping habits, leading to these old, decrepit ships to take risks on open seas. The risk of not exporting the oil outweighs the risk of losing the cargo. Before 2024, only one of these ship types broke apart on open seas, and that was in 2007. This is one of a number of signals that all is not well with the Russian economy.

 

Putin remains the master strategist.

 

[kwonitoy]

2 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Must be lacking in anything relevant to now to keep rabbiting on about that.

Is that really all you have?

 

How about some comments on how the Ukrainians are winning in the East... oops, they are losing. Sorry about that.

 

Have a nice day.

 

 

[RuamRudy]

2 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Must be lacking in anything relevant to now to keep rabbiting on about that.

Is that really all you have?

 

How about some comments on how the Ukrainians are winning in the East... oops, they are losing. Sorry about that.

 

Have a nice day.

 

From reading your posts, it would seem that you aren't sorry at all that Ukraine is experiencing losses.

 

Why you cheer on the aggressor is beyond me, but if massacres of civilians, the use of chemical weapons, torture and rape of civilians are things you admire, I can see why you might be so fulsome in your support for Putin. 

 

Although things in the east are maybe not quite so dire as you suggest. I imagine the people of Kursk are more than happy to finally be away from the clutches of the evil empire. 

[thaibeachlovers]

8 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

 

From reading your posts, it would seem that you aren't sorry at all that Ukraine is experiencing losses.

 

Why you cheer on the aggressor is beyond me, but if massacres of civilians, the use of chemical weapons, torture and rape of civilians are things you admire, I can see why you might be so fulsome in your support for Putin. 

 

Although things in the east are maybe not quite so dire as you suggest. I imagine the people of Kursk are more than happy to finally be away from the clutches of the evil empire. 

2 + 2 does not make 22.

 

If you read into my posts that I am glad Ukraine is losing, you are wrong. IMO the entire war should never have happened, and it's entirely the west's fault it's still going. Had the US/ Europe not supplied the weapons the war would have been over 2 years ago.

All that destruction and death did not have to happen.

Far as I'm concerned, the sooner Ukraine accepts reality and negotiates, the better.

 

As for Kursk, that will be back under Russian control in due course.

[thaibeachlovers]

1 hour ago, kwonitoy said:

 

 

Is it your claim that Ukraine is winning then, LOL.

 

Do you know anything about wars? Read up on the first 2 years of WW2 to see if the UK was winning.

[thaibeachlovers]

2 hours ago, MicroB said:

https://ceenergynews.com/oil-gas/russia-moldova-transnistria-buy-gas-europe/

 

 

First Putin threatens to stop supplying Europe with natural gas.

Putin said Europe would freeze to death without Russian natural gas

Europe stops buying Russian gas

Europe doesn't freeze to death

Russian natural gas gets cut off to Transnistria, on account of the country Russia is attacking, Ukraine, not being particularly interested in renewing an agreement that will allow Russian gas to flow to a breakaway enclave, Transniestria, that is home to the Russian Army's OGRF.

Transmistrian Russian people get a bit cold, ask their fellow Moldovans for help.

Russia will buy gas from Europe to supply Transnistria.

 

Putin remains the master strategist.

Are you even aware that Germany et al now pay way more for gas than they used to?

Are you even aware that German industry is suffering because energy costs too much?

 

Is that a win in your book,? LOL.

[Gweiloman]

16 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Is it your claim that Ukraine is winning then, LOL.

 

Do you know anything about wars? Read up on the first 2 years of WW2 to see if the UK was winning.

As most posters only read western msm, they are totally ignorant of what’s happening on the frontlines so you can’t really blame them for thinking that Ukraine is winning the conflict. Some to this day still think that it was Putin who said the conflict would be over in a few days when it was Mark Milley who said it. Can’t help people if they don’t want to know the truth.

[Gweiloman]

20 hours ago, transam said:

Oh, you come from the West then..............🤭

You clearly do, obviously…

[kwonitoy]

12 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Is it your claim that Ukraine is winning then, LOL.

 

Do you know anything about wars? Read up on the first 2 years of WW2 to see if the UK was winning.

I don't claim Ukraine is winning, but russia is not winning either.

But I do want Ukraine to provale 

It's 3 years of stalemate that russia did not plan for.

And russia has been throwing everything at this and still can't succeed, so much winning for them

 

Where Ukraine is doing well is a hybridized guerrilla warfare only with drones, slowly picking away at russia's oil infrastructure, manufacturing, weapons stores, etc.

 

As regards WW2 and any war, it's the final outcome not the early innings that count.

How'd that work out for the UK?

[RuamRudy]

50 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

2 + 2 does not make 22.

 

If you read into my posts that I am glad Ukraine is losing, you are wrong. IMO the entire war should never have happened, and it's entirely the west's fault it's still going. Had the US/ Europe not supplied the weapons the war would have been over 2 years ago.

All that destruction and death did not have to happen.

Far as I'm concerned, the sooner Ukraine accepts reality and negotiates, the better.

 

As for Kursk, that will be back under Russian control in due course.

 

Your posts invariably remind me of this quote by George Santayana, "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it."

 

This glorious red victory you long for will not be the end. It will be the end of the beginning. 

[transam]

1 hour ago, Gweiloman said:

You clearly do, obviously…

Well, yes I do, but someone who does not make blanket accusations like yourself.............

[Gweiloman]

9 hours ago, transam said:

Well, yes I do, but someone who does not make blanket accusations like yourself.............

Yes, because you lack the cognitive ability to recognise it……… 

[theblether]

11 hours ago, Gweiloman said:

As most posters only read western msm, they are totally ignorant of what’s happening on the frontlines so you can’t really blame them for thinking that Ukraine is winning the conflict. Some to this day still think that it was Putin who said the conflict would be over in a few days when it was Mark Milley who said it. Can’t help people if they don’t want to know the truth.

 

You made that up in your head. I know no one that thinks Ukraine is winning. Everybody agrees its a stalemate. 

 

Going back to the topic - if Trump floods Europe with American energy, that will cause serious damage to the Russian economy. 

 

However, I think the war will be over before that energy surge arrives. 

[Seppius]

9 minutes ago, theblether said:

 

You made that up in your head. I know no one that thinks Ukraine is winning. Everybody agrees its a stalemate. 

 

Going back to the topic - if Trump floods Europe with American energy, that will cause serious damage to the Russian economy. 

 

However, I think the war will be over before that energy surge arrives. 

 

Yes, on the battlefield it's stalemate, meanwhile Russia is losing thousands of troops a week still to the meatgrinder, while gaining little land and Ukraine is slowly destroying infrastructure and moral inside Russia on a daily basis.

 

Russia will never win anything out of this conflict now, too late