Thailand's Economy Misses Predicted Growth, Eyes 2025 Forecasts

[snoop1130]

Picture courtesy of Daily Sabah

 

In a twist of economic expectations, Thailand's recent growth figures did not quite reach analysts' elevated forecasts. Official numbers indicate a respectable 3.2% increase in the last quarter of 2024 compared to the previous year. This marks a deviation from the anticipated 3.9% growth initially forecasted by financial analysts in a Reuters poll.

 

The National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) presented these findings, showing Thailand's position as Southeast Asia's second-largest economy. The nation achieved a 0.4% growth from October to December, which, while growth nonetheless, lagged behind the estimated 0.7% rise.

 

In contrast, the preceding quarter yielded a significant 3.0% year-on-year growth, alongside a 1.2% quarterly increase. Over the entirety of 2024, the economy expanded by 2.5%, showing improvement from a revised 2.0% in 2023. For the coming year, NESDC keeps a cautiously hopeful outlook, forecasting growth between 2.3% and 3.3%.

 

This optimism hinges on various factors: increased government spending, rising private consumption and investment, a resurgence in tourism, and an export boost. The consensus among experts is that these elements could provide a sturdy foundation for economic stability in 2025.

 

 

Despite the soft growth figures, Commerce Minister Pichai Naripthaphan remains optimistic. He seems focused on using diplomatic acumen to navigate potential trade challenges, particularly in relation to avoiding US tariffs due to trade surplus concerns.

 

Contributing to this economic narrative, the Bank of Thailand maintained its primary interest rate at 2.25% in December. This followed a surprising reduction by 0.25% in October, a move attributed to mitigating elevated household debt levels.

 

As the next Bank of Thailand policy review approaches on February 26, stakeholders are keenly observing fiscal strategies. The aim is to steer Thailand through turbulent economic waters and maintain a steady course towards sustainable growth. With targeted investments and strategic alignments, there is cautious optimism that Thailand will overcome economic fluctuations and continue on its path of growth, reported The Thaiger.

 

-- 2025-02-17

 

 

[Tropicalevo]

12 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

He seems focused on using diplomatic acumen to navigate potential trade challenges

 

In Thailand, that is more commonly known as threats and bullying.

[ExpatOilWorker]

Rice farmers will not save the economy. 

[realfunster]

 

 

There was a related but broader article I read somewhere today comparing Thai GDP growth to regional neighbours.

Very weak performance over the 2022-24 period compared to SG/VN and Indonesia.

 

It indicated that some are already revising down the forecast 2025 growth from 3.0% to 2.8%. This remains well below key neighbours/peers.

 

There is a helluva lot of work to be done to get the economic growth really moving in the right direction.

[BrandonJT]

Must be because they haven't finished that 10,000 baht giveaway yet. Wasn't that supposed to save their economy and drive massive GDP growth? 🤣