Nobody will trust a US treaty again,’ and Japan’s yen is now the new safe haven currency

[placeholder]

21 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

 

Yes, there are obvious problems the steel tariffs will cause. Cars will get more expensive. But this will be the case across the board. Part of the reason why the steel tariffs are necessary is because China has been dumping cheap steel everywhere around the gblobe, depressing prices. However, the US needs high prices for steel.

 

And don't forget these tariffs will be bad for the US, but they will be mortal for the 25000 Canadian steel workers. They will kill Canadian steel right off. So Trump will eliminate a competitor, Canadian steel producers. 

 

However, it may be that the real reason that Trump wants strong US steel and aluminium producers, is that he wants to prepare the US for military purposes.

 

 

 

22 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

 

Yes, there are obvious problems the steel tariffs will cause. Cars will get more expensive. But this will be the case across the board. Part of the reason why the steel tariffs are necessary is because China has been dumping cheap steel everywhere around the gblobe, depressing prices. However, the US needs high prices for steel.

 

And don't forget these tariffs will be bad for the US, but they will be mortal for the 25000 Canadian steel workers. They will kill Canadian steel right off. So Trump will eliminate a competitor, Canadian steel producers. 

 

However, it may be that the real reason that Trump wants strong US steel and aluminium producers, is that he wants to prepare the US for military purposes.

 

 

It's funny. Most Trumpers were complaining about how the democrats and neocons got the US involved in foreign wars. And they castigated them over and over again. Now you're claiming that it was all a ruse and Trump is preparing for war?  And you think the outcome of war is going to boost the American economy? Very archaic and very Third Reich thinking. War may be useful for an economy sunk deep in a depression, but even then the economic equivalent can be done with far better results.

As for your prediction that tariff "will kill Canadian still right off"... Here's a graph for the last time 25% tariffs were imposed.

https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/steel-production

Is that your idea of the death of an industry? It is to laugh.

[0ffshore360]

On 3/10/2025 at 12:26 PM, Lacessit said:

Japan holds more US debt than China, in terms of US Treasury bonds.

And both have been selling off in large amounts

[placeholder]

59 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

 

That was the justification used for the steel tariffs the first time around, national security. And of course if you want a strong military you do need strong steel producers.

 

Trump can't afford US steel producers to fail because that would mean America's military nimbus would vanish.

It was a laughable justification back then. Canada, a nation that the US shares, or maybe shared, the longest unprotected border in world was a security threat. Wasn't there a South Park episode where Canada and the US went to war? Do you understand why that was funny?

[Cameroni]

50 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Now you're claiming that it was all a ruse and Trump is preparing for war?  And you think the outcome of war is going to boost the American economy? Very archaic and very Third Reich thinking. War may be useful for an economy sunk deep in a depression, but even then the economic equivalent can be done with far better results.

 

Not preparing for a specific war, but he is considering the necessity to retain strong steel producers to maintain America's ability to build a strong a military. The US military is a crucial tool of US policy. Speak softly but carry a big stick as Teddy said.

 

If US steel would wilt away, how could the US maintain its military glory? It couldn''t.

[Cameroni]

9 minutes ago, placeholder said:

It was a laughable justification back then. Canada, a nation that the US shares, or maybe shared, the longest unprotected border in world was a security threat. Wasn't there a South Park episode where Canada and the US went to war? Do you understand why that was funny?

 

No, the threat was not a direct Canadian invasion obviously, the threat was that Canadian steel caused American steel producers to fail, which would indeed have a direct impact on America's military.

[placeholder]

1 minute ago, Cameroni said:

 

No, the threat was not a direct Canadian invasion obviously, the threat was that Canadian steel caused American steel producers to fail, which would indeed have a direct impact on America's military.

The US steel industry is huge compared to the Canadian steel industry. But for the sake of argument, let's say that the Canadian steel industry totally supplanted the US steel industry. How would that be deleterious to the U.S. military?

[Cameroni]

1 hour ago, placeholder said:

As for your prediction that tariff "will kill Canadian still right off"... Here's a graph for the last time 25% tariffs were imposed.

 

The situation is different now. Canadian investment is in a substantially worse shape now than it was then after being hit by a global pandemic, followed by an underperforming economy over the last two years. 

 

The U.S. accounts for over 90% of Canadian steel and aluminum exports. The renewal of the tariffs from 2018/19 would apply to roughly $24 billion of Canadian exports.

 

You think Canada will just shrug that off?

[Cameroni]

5 minutes ago, placeholder said:

The US steel industry is huge compared to the Canadian steel industry. But for the sake of argument, let's say that the Canadian steel industry totally supplanted the US steel industry. How would that be deleterious to the U.S. military?

 

In a time of war you need control over your steel producers. It's no good to rely on Canadians, who have now shown they think nothing of targeting the electricity supply of American cities. 

[placeholder]

3 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

 

The situation is different now. Canadian investment is in a substantially worse shape now than it was then after being hit by a global pandemic, followed by an underperforming economy over the last two years. 

 

The U.S. accounts for over 90% of Canadian steel and aluminum exports. The renewal of the tariffs from 2018/19 would apply to roughly $24 billion of Canadian exports.

 

You think Canada will just shrug that off?

What does any of that have to do with how a 25% tariff will hurt the Canadian steel industry? In fact, and thanks for bringing up the issue of the worsening Canadian economy, the fact that the US dollar has increased in value against the Canadian most likely means that a 25% tariff will be less effective than it was formerly.

[placeholder]

5 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

 

In a time of war you need control over your steel producers. It's no good to rely on Canadians, who have now shown they think nothing of targeting the electricity supply of American cities. 

Really? The percentage of US produced steel used by the Department of Defense is at most 3%,

 

The mythical national security argument for protecting the steel industry

https://breakingdefense.com/2024/03/the-mythical-national-security-argument-for-protecting-the-steel-industry/

 

The author who is a former undersecretary of defense who was tasked with getting the specialty steel needed by the Pentagoon to protect US soldiers against IEDs.

 

 

 

[Cameroni]

25 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Really? The percentage of US produced steel used by the Department of Defense is at most 3%,

 

The mythical national security argument for protecting the steel industry

https://breakingdefense.com/2024/03/the-mythical-national-security-argument-for-protecting-the-steel-industry/

 

The author who is a former undersecretary of defense who was tasked with getting the specialty steel needed by the Pentagoon to protect US soldiers against IEDs.

 

 

 

"One US company did do something, and that was Oregon Steel. They had a process that could produce the quality of steel that the MRAPs needed but it would require the importation of steel ingot from Mexico to fuel their mills. This would require a waiver from Buy America restrictions that mandated that all steel DoD uses be not only produced, but smelted in the US. US steel industry lobbyists vehemently opposed any such waiver. DoD eventually granted the waiver, thereby increasing MRAP-relevant steel production by 40 percent. The brutalist of ironies: The company was purchased by Russians in 2007. The irony that the Russians stepped up to protect our troops while US industry did not was probably not lost on the Kremlin."

 

Funny article but it really is concerned with a particular type of steel. If the need ever arose in a brutal war to request more than 3% the US steel producers have to have the capability to deliver the amount and quality required. If the DoD just relies on foreign countries that is obviously not a desirable situation.

[placeholder]

3 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

"One US company did do something, and that was Oregon Steel. They had a process that could produce the quality of steel that the MRAPs needed but it would require the importation of steel ingot from Mexico to fuel their mills. This would require a waiver from Buy America restrictions that mandated that all steel DoD uses be not only produced, but smelted in the US. US steel industry lobbyists vehemently opposed any such waiver. DoD eventually granted the waiver, thereby increasing MRAP-relevant steel production by 40 percent. The brutalist of ironies: The company was purchased by Russians in 2007. The irony that the Russians stepped up to protect our troops while US industry did not was probably not lost on the Kremlin."

 

Funny article but it really is concerned with a particular type of steel. If the need ever arose in a brutal war to request more than 3% the US steel producers have to have the capability to deliver the amount and quality required. If the DoD just relies on foreign countries that is obviously not a desirable situation.

First off, as the author noted, that 3% is probably a very high estimate. It's more like 1%. And no, that percentage is not just for specialty steels:

'Historically, the Pentagon has bought significantly less than 1 percent of the US steel industry’s output, although the industry believes that number is closer to 3 percent."

[Lacessit]

47 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

 

Not preparing for a specific war, but he is considering the necessity to retain strong steel producers to maintain America's ability to build a strong a military. The US military is a crucial tool of US policy. Speak softly but carry a big stick as Teddy said.

 

If US steel would wilt away, how could the US maintain its military glory? It couldn''t.

At best, the US military uses less than 5% of America's current steel production.

 

It's not bread and butter steel going into cars, washing machines and roofing either. It's specialty steels for ships, submarines and tanks.

 

70% of American steel is produced by electric arc furnaces, which mainly use scrap steel as a feedstock.

 

As far as cars and washing machines go, the Japanese and Koreans beat US producers into a cocked hat decades ago, better quality and lower prices. Now it's the Chinese.

 

Attempts to revive the US steel industry with tariffs is like feeding a diabetic sugar. It won't end well.

 

[Cameroni]

48 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

At best, the US military uses less than 5% of America's current steel production.

That's because the DoD buys steel from other countries, because it's cheaper. That's precisely what Trump wants to end.