Myanmar’s Turmoil: Four Years After the Military Coup

[geovalin]

Nippon

 

Myanmar remains gripped by economic collapse and violent conflict four years after the military seized power in a coup. With inflation soaring, energy shortages worsening, and a brutal civil war raging, the country’s future appears increasingly uncertain.

 

A Nation in Economic Freefall

Before the coup in February 2021, Myanmar was on a path toward economic recovery following the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the military takeover derailed progress, leading to severe financial instability. The national currency, the kyat, has plummeted in value, dropping from 1,500 kyat per US dollar before the coup to 7,000 kyat by mid-2024. Inflation has skyrocketed, doubling the cost of goods and sending fuel prices soaring to five times their pre-coup levels.

Foreign reserves have been depleted, forcing authorities to impose strict restrictions on US dollar withdrawals and imports. The government has limited import licenses to businesses in the Thilawa Special Economic Zone, causing supply shortages across industries. Japanese firms, once major investors in Myanmar, are withdrawing, and the Japanese Chamber of Commerce in Myanmar has seen its membership shrink dramatically.

Compounding the crisis, electricity shortages persist, with power only available for eight hours every two days. Despite raising electricity rates by 2.5 times, the junta has failed to improve supply, forcing factories and businesses to rely on costly fuel generators, further undermining Myanmar’s economic prospects.

 

A War with No End in Sight

Meanwhile, fighting between the military and the People’s Defence Force (PDF), the armed wing of the opposition National Unity Government, has intensified. Once in control, the military now faces heavy territorial losses and diminishing troop numbers, prompting a desperate move in June 2024: conscription. Under this policy, men aged 18 to 45 are forcibly drafted, with reports indicating that even 14- and 15-year-olds are being taken from the streets, given alcohol and cigarettes to appear older, and sent directly into battle.

The violence has displaced thousands, leaving entire communities homeless. Schools remain closed in conflict zones, with teachers targeted in attacks. The lack of education threatens the future of Myanmar’s youth, deepening the country’s long-term instability.

 

A Bleak Outlook for Myanmar

Diplomatically isolated, Myanmar saw its last major foreign connection severed when Japan decided not to replace its outgoing ambassador in September 2024. Once considered Asia’s “last frontier” of opportunity, the country is now described as a “lost frontier.” With no clear path back to democracy, Myanmar’s future remains in jeopardy, and its people continue to bear the brunt of this prolonged crisis.

 

-2025-03-21