Economy Thailand Braces for Blowback From US-China Trade War

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Thailand's trade and export sectors are on high alert as the US-China trade war escalates, with potential repercussions set to ripple through the country's economy.

 

Economists warn that global trade uncertainties, fuelled by the rift between the two powerhouse nations, could challenge Thailand's economic stability. Nattawat Onratn from CGS-CIMB Securities hints that the trade war might drag on, keeping Thailand in a state of flux.

 

Nattawat raises concerns over the unpredictable nature of US President Donald Trump's trade policies, noting that negotiation efforts by several countries, including Japan, have yet to yield fruitful results.

 

As uncertainty prevails, Thai investors are urged to maintain liquidity, despite possible short-lived recoveries in the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET). Allianz SE projects that Thailand's GDP growth might inch down to 2.2% this year, with potential declines continuing into 2026, all under the shadow of Trump's tariff strategies.

 

Ludovic Subran of Allianz highlights that Thailand could feel the squeeze of increased global trade costs, especially in automotive, manufacturing, and electronics sectors, despite not being directly targeted by US tariffs.

 

 

 

The strain on export sectors might push Thailand's central bank towards monetary easing while domestic policies and diversification efforts try to buffer the adverse effects.

 

As businesses delay projects and curb investments amid Washington-Beijing tensions, global GDP is projected to fall to its lowest level since the pandemic by 2025, with sluggish consumer spending and inflation adding to the woes.

 

While Asia-Pacific could display resilience with an expected growth of 3.9% in 2025, Thailand might face budgetary pressures.

 

BofA Global Research suggests the Thai government might need to consider additional fiscal measures to aid the economy, possibly necessitating new legislation to enable increased borrowing, as noted by economist Pipat Luengnaruemitchai.

 

Adapted by ASEAN Now from Bangkok Post

 

-- 2025-04-22

 

 

[sammieuk1]

Fear not up will go the mighty Baht 🤔

[ozz1]

Yes  the teflon baht strikes again exports down interesting what will happen if tourism droppes off their reserves must be healthy

[JimHuaHin]

Maybe some people in the Trump administration have been reading news reports about  Thailand and see Thailand as a Chinese colony or workshop.

[KhunBENQ]

1 hour ago, JimHuaHin said:

Maybe some people in the Trump administration have been reading news reports about  Thailand and see Thailand as a Chinese colony or workshop.

Tarrifs up to about 3500% on solar cells from Chinese owned factories in Thailand and Cambodia.

Basically a hidden import ban.

German solar cell industry has already been destroyed by Chinese imports.

Similar with wind turbines.