Who here follows the financial media?

[ericbj]

Stock and bond markets, foreign exchange rates, and inflation are a particular concern to those of us living on a "nest-egg", whether pension and/or other sources of income.

The financial media are mentioning an as-yet hypothetical development they refer to as 'The Mar-a-Largo Accord'.  A term coined by Dr Stephen Miran, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors to the President, in "A User's Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System".

 

Bloomberg Law: "The Mar-a-Largo Chatter is Getting Wall Street's Attention."

 

Forbes: "Why the Mar-a-Largo Accord Would Matter To You."

 

The Financial Times: "What a Mar-a-Largo Accord Could Look Like."

 

What actually comes out of this remains to be seen.  What one can say for sure is that Trump & Team are seeking to turn around the growing, decades-long trade deficit and to restructure and drastically reduce an unsustainable debt.

 

How are they hoping to do this?

 

1.  By devaluing the dollar (while persuading major trading partners not to follow suit, which would negate the effect.  The tariffs are there as a persuasive threat to gaining acceptance of this).  It would make U.S. exports more competitive and foreign imports less so.

 

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is a former hedge-fund manager whose thinking helped George Soros and others generate billions of dollars profit by crashing the GBP and the Japanese yen.  Just before his appointment to his present position he said in an interview with Ted Seides  "We're in the midst of a Bretton Woods realignment …I'd like to be part of it, either on the inside or the out."  And "The tariff gun will always be loaded and on the table but rarely discharged."

 

2.  Restructuring of the U.S. government's debt, to free up capital.  For brevity's sake, let it pass.

 

3.  Monetisation of U.S. government assets.  Bessent recently said, in Trump's presence: "Within the next 12 months, we're going to monetize the asset side of the U.S. balance sheet."

 

What are these assets?

 

a)  Gold reserves.  It is believed that a revaluation of U.S. reserves, something that has been done four times in the past, will greatly increase gold bullion's retail price. Share prices of gold mining, royalty, and streaming companies could be leveraged four-fold.  (Exploration companies are a risky bet that can pay off big, but rarely do so)

 

b)  Land, and the mineral and other resources it holds.  The Federal government owns vast tracts of mineral-rich land, located mostly in the western parts of the country.

 

Executive Order 14196 has created a Sovereign Wealth Fund, in anticipation of having national wealth to invest and manage.  Sovereign wealth funds already exist in a number of countries, such as the Irish Republic, to manage and grow the tax revenues from the many transnational companies headquartered there, and Norway, Saudi Arabia, and Iran, mainly to invest oil revenues.

 

Retirees may draw their own conclusions from the foregoing as to any moves they may need to make.  Or make their own enquiries.  The Internet is a useful resource.

 

[KhunLA]

Can't say I do, follow anything that is.

 

Just the headline, and maybe an article if I think it relates to me & mine.   Though out of the markets.  Really have nothing to control, or be controlled by.  Kind of liquid, or only have physical assets.  I few IRAs that I don't pay attention to.

 

Only pay attention do inflation in USA, or what ever BS number they pull out of that orifice around October, for USA Social Security (retirement fund) yearly COLA.  Again, irrelevant, as no control of that.

 

Really don't need to pay attention to much.  RE (land goes up), so don't need to pay attention.   Exchange rate is what it is, and nothing I do will change that, and rarely fluctuates over 10% any given year.

 

Do need to pay attention to what every bank's limit your account is protected at.  Thailand, it is now only 1M, per depositor, per bank.  Don't know how safe it is, as system had never been tested, as of late.

 

Stress free ... I like it 😎

[Cryingdick]

I watch financial news several hours a day Monday through Friday. My favorite show for getting stock ideas is The Fast Money Halftime report. I mostly concentrate on specific stocks and companies as even the experts when they talk macro and all of that look like morons not too long after. 

 

Anybody that tries to forecast the S&P a year out for example is talking out their ass. I find the financial news important especially during earnings season. Even a spastic, like Crajmer can be useful when he shows you what companies are going to report in the next week. I hate it when i buy something and they are reporting during that period and I was unaware. 

 

 Also I like watching what a CEO has to say out of their own mouths. Josh Brown is probably the investor I like the most. He speaks simply, is smart, has a sense of humor and doesn't get out tarot cards and read palms and pretend to know things he doesn't. 

[Harrisfan]

Only dividends pers and charts. Commentators are full of it.

[realfunster]

 

It should be a concern to all investors that the US might be on a path to "reset" the global economic system.

 

If you are heavy on US assets, you may want to rebalance your portfolio a touch until things clarify.

 

Worrying that the S&P, dollar index and US treasuries have all struggled in recent weeks.

 

What remains to be seen is if this is purely window dressing by WH for political reasons or whether any tangible changes will arise.

[Harrisfan]

3 minutes ago, realfunster said:

 

It should be a concern to all investors that the US might be on a path to "reset" the global economic system.

 

If you are heavy on US assets, you may want to rebalance your portfolio a touch until things clarify.

 

Worrying that the S&P, dollar index and US treasuries have all struggled in recent weeks.

 

What remains to be seen is if this is purely window dressing by WH for political reasons or whether any tangible changes will arise.

Too late now

[realfunster]

Oh and US Q1 GDP and Core CPE (inflation measure favoured by the Fed) are being reported tomorrow,30/4.

With a very twitchy market at present - buckle up if these come in below forecast expectations.  

[realfunster]

1 minute ago, Harrisfan said:

Too late now

Could be, we've had something of a rally after correction/bear market but not sure we are out of the woods yet. 

 

Any troubling US economic data could see a further slide in markets...

[Harrisfan]

1 minute ago, realfunster said:

Could be, we've had something of a rally after correction/bear market but not sure we are out of the woods yet. 

 

Any troubling US economic data could see a further slide in markets...

18% fall. Back to normal prices. Forming a low pattern.

[ericbj]

59 minutes ago, Cryingdick said:

I watch financial news several hours a day Monday through Friday. My favorite show for getting stock ideas is The Fast Money Halftime report. I mostly concentrate on specific stocks and companies as even the experts when they talk macro and all of that look like morons not too long after. 

 

Anybody that tries to forecast the S&P a year out for example is talking out their ass. I find the financial news important especially during earnings season. Even a spastic, like Crajmer can be useful when he shows you what companies are going to report in the next week. I hate it when i buy something and they are reporting during that period and I was unaware. 

 

 Also I like watching what a CEO has to say out of their own mouths. Josh Brown is probably the investor I like the most. He speaks simply, is smart, has a sense of humor and doesn't get out tarot cards and read palms and pretend to know things he doesn't. 

I agree that most "experts" are salesmen either for an investment letter of dubious quality, or to push up demand for stocks they are invested in or paid to promote; or both.

 

I tend to go for contrarian opinions, because those people are going against the grain and have likely done some homework.  And because what is currently unpopular because of some temporary setback (nothing fundamentally serious - could be something cyclical) stands a better chance of rising in value later.  Take uranium for instance.  Fortunes made.  Then boom!  Nobody wants it.  Green politics against it.  Now they are needing it more and more and saying it is ecological because no CO2 emissions (at least not from 'burning' it).

 

Here are a few names to look out for, if interested:

 

Doug Casey of International Man

 

Bill Bonner

 

Jim Rickards

 

Happy hunting !

 

[Cryingdick]

53 minutes ago, ericbj said:

I agree that most "experts" are salesmen either for an investment letter of dubious quality, or to push up demand for stocks they are invested in or paid to promote; or both.

 

I tend to go for contrarian opinions, because those people are going against the grain and have likely done some homework.  And because what is currently unpopular because of some temporary setback (nothing fundamentally serious - could be something cyclical) stands a better chance of rising in value later.  Take uranium for instance.  Fortunes made.  Then boom!  Nobody wants it.  Green politics against it.  Now they are needing it more and more and saying it is ecological because no CO2 emissions (at least not from 'burning' it).

 

Here are a few names to look out for, if interested:

 

Doug Casey of International Man

 

Bill Bonner

 

Jim Rickards

 

Happy hunting !

 

I am big into tech. Lately especially the cyber security and software that AI will need. For AI the road thus far has been like this chips------>data centers and equipment suppliers cooling systems fiber optics etc.-----> as the chips start to stand it is is software to deploy it. 

 

It has been a go to as they aren't affected by tariffs. A couple weeks ago on this very site I called Palantir, Servicenow, zscaler and a few others. They have just been smoking hot. 

 

I like sectors with a huge TAM and their products increase their TAM as they are developed. Making chips leads to making more chips. Making software leads to making more software .

 

I have some baby shares in uranium ETFs which haven't done well for me. Two nano reactor companies that have been very easy to trade in and out of have been SMR-Nuscale and OKLO. 

 

I think modular nuclear technology is the future but it will be awhile. Those are highly volatile so for now they are fast trades. The uranium ETFs pay dividends and i will hold a long time.

 

[ericbj]

2 hours ago, Cryingdick said:

I am big into tech. Lately especially the cyber security and software that AI will need. For AI the road thus far has been like this chips------>data centers and equipment suppliers cooling systems fiber optics etc.-----> as the chips start to stand it is is software to deploy it. 

 

It has been a go to as they aren't affected by tariffs. A couple weeks ago on this very site I called Palantir, Servicenow, zscaler and a few others. They have just been smoking hot. 

 

I like sectors with a huge TAM and their products increase their TAM as they are developed. Making chips leads to making more chips. Making software leads to making more software .

Thanks for the feedback.
I can see that you have knowledge of that market, something that I lack.  I believe one needs to have at least some degree of knowledge of a sector one is investing in, especially in difficult times.  My impression is that quite a few AI companies are not doing too well at present, so one would need to know to avoid them.  If I were going to invest in that area it might have to do with energy for the new data-centres.

 

Personally am more into stuff I can understand fairly easily, like metals and minerals, and energy.  Commodities as a whole have had a pretty rotten time in recent years, but probably have quite a future.  But WHEN depends upon when manufacturing surges again.  So am heavily (relative to my resources!) into gold which is real money (a "tier-one asset", the only one apart from the now-dodgy U.S. Treasuries).  And also silver, much more volatile and unpredictable, but underpriced in view of its high industrial demand and limited availability.  Moreover, unlike gold, it gets used up, as not economically recyclable.  Hold some bullion and some stocks, mainly royalty companies like Franco-Nevada and Wheaton.  Copper very good potential, but economic lift-off needed to realise it.

[Cryingdick]

16 minutes ago, ericbj said:

Thanks for the feedback.
I can see that you have knowledge of that market, something that I lack.  I believe one needs to have at least some degree of knowledge of a sector one is investing in, especially in difficult times.  My impression is that quite a few AI companies are not doing too well at present, so one would need to know to avoid them.  If I were going to invest in that area it might have to do with energy for the new data-centres.

 

Personally am more into stuff I can understand fairly easily, like metals and minerals, and energy.  Commodities as a whole have had a pretty rotten time in recent years, but probably have quite a future.  But WHEN depends upon when manufacturing surges again.  So am heavily (relative to my resources!) into gold which is real money (a "tier-one asset", the only one apart from the now-dodgy U.S. Treasuries).  And also silver, much more volatile and unpredictable, but underpriced in view of its high industrial demand and limited availability.  Moreover, unlike gold, it gets used up, as not economically recyclable.  Hold some bullion and some stocks, mainly royalty companies like Franco-Nevada and Wheaton.  Copper very good potential, but economic lift-off needed to realise it.

Energy and metals are just not my thing. i use real estate to store my value. I cash out every few years and add a small rental house to my holdings. I also like raw land in holiday areas as i know how to build cabins. 

 

I have a retirement account like most people but for my active accounts i like to keep them sized right so i am never caught out. I would hate sitting there with everything i earned in my life in play and being forced to sell in a down turn.

 

I also use collectibles to store value. But I am not so sure this is not just for my own amusement more than anything. Am I really going to trade a watch for bullets if the zombie apocalypse comes? I fell this way about physical gold as well. The old man on TV saying he is safe with his gold coins, is he really going to be able to do anything with them if it gets real? Not so convinced.