Behind the Curtain: How the U.S. Helped Avert War Between India and Pakistan

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Behind the Curtain: How the U.S. Helped Avert War Between India and Pakistan

 

In the tense days following the deadly militant attack in Indian-administered Kashmir that killed 26 tourists, India and Pakistan teetered dangerously on the edge of all-out war. The attack prompted India to launch air strikes deep into Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir, igniting a series of aerial clashes, artillery exchanges, and escalating rhetoric. Both sides claimed significant victories and accused each other of missile strikes on strategic airbases, prompting global concern over the possibility of a full-scale conflict between two nuclear-armed nations.

 

As the crisis intensified, it became clear that multiple international players were working behind the scenes to de-escalate the situation. “There’s still much we don’t know about the roles of various international actors, but it’s clear over the past three days that at least three countries were working to de-escalate – the US, of course, but also the UK and Saudi Arabia,” said Tanvi Madan, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington DC.

 

A critical turning point appears to have come on May 9, when US Secretary of State Marco Rubio called Pakistan’s Army Chief Asim Munir. Experts believe that this diplomatic outreach may have helped halt the slide toward open war. “One question is whether, if this call had come earlier – right after the initial Indian strikes, when Pakistan was already claiming some Indian losses and an off-ramp was available – it might have prevented further escalation,” Madan reflected.

 

Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar revealed that the scale of diplomacy was vast, saying that “three dozen countries” had taken part in efforts to ease the tension, including Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the United States. Yet it was Washington’s involvement that seemed most decisive. “The US was indispensable. This outcome would not have occurred without Secretary Rubio’s efforts,” stated Ashley J Tellis, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

 

In Pakistan, signs of potential nuclear escalation were evident when the country’s leadership convened a National Command Authority (NCA) meeting — a calculated move to signal its nuclear posture amid mounting military exchanges. The NCA holds authority over Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal and its strategic decisions. This coincided closely with the timing of Secretary Rubio’s intervention, further underscoring the gravity of the situation.

 

Unlike in previous crises such as the 2019 Pulwama–Balakot episode, the U.S. initially maintained a hands-off approach, observing developments rather than acting immediately. “The American role was a continuation of past patterns, but with one key difference – this time, they initially stayed hands-off, watching the crisis unfold instead of jumping in right away. Only when they saw how it was playing out did they step in to manage it,” said Haider, a regional expert.

 

What strengthened Washington’s hand was its increasingly close ties with New Delhi. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s rapport with former President Trump, along with broader strategic and economic interests, gave the U.S. leverage at a critical moment. Indian officials acknowledged that three main diplomatic tracks helped stave off war: U.S. and UK pressure, Saudi mediation — marked by the Saudi junior foreign minister’s visits to both capitals — and a direct communication channel between the two countries’ national security advisors.

 

Despite the ceasefire, doubts remain about the durability of the peace that was brokered. Some Indian media have reported that senior military officials from both countries, not the United States, played the decisive role in achieving the ceasefire agreement. “This ceasefire is bound to be a fragile one. It came about very quickly, amid sky-high tensions. India appears to have interpreted it differently than did the US and Pakistan,” said foreign policy analyst Michael Kugelman. “Also, since it was put together so hastily, the accord may lack the proper guarantees and assurances one would need at such a tense moment.”

 

Even so, the events of this crisis reaffirm the complex but crucial role the United States continues to play in managing South Asia’s most volatile relationship. Whether publicly acknowledged or quietly conducted through backchannels, U.S. mediation remains a linchpin in efforts to prevent catastrophe between India and Pakistan.

 

  Adapted by ASEAN Now from BBC  2025-05-13

 

 

[Purdey]

Should strengthen Rubio's pitch for President later. Good on him.

[kingstonkid]

As long as there is a Kashmir and a disputed line of control, there will be issues with both countries.  The only solution that might be viable is independence for Kashmir, but then there would still be the guerrilla inference.   

 

This is a pat of the world that India and Pakistan as well as fringe groups will fight over and will cause tension between the 2 countries.  

 

The only question is what the U.S. gave Pakistan as a peace offering.