UK Reform would be largest party if general election held today

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Farage’s Reform Poised to Overtake Labour and Tories in Historic Political Shift

 

Nigel Farage’s Reform UK would emerge as Britain’s largest political party if a general election were held today, according to a landmark poll that underscores the dramatic collapse in support for Labour and the Conservatives. The YouGov MRP survey—its first since Labour’s landslide victory last year—suggests Reform is on track to send 271 MPs to Westminster, up from just five currently, making it the dominant force in a hung parliament.

 

 

The findings reveal an extraordinary reversal in fortunes for Sir Keir Starmer, whose Labour Party would lose 233 of the 412 seats it won just one year ago. “Just a year since Labour’s election landslide, the party is on course to win fewer seats than it did in 2019,” said Patrick English, director of political analytics at YouGov. “That a clear majority would now vote for someone other than the two established main parties of British politics is a striking marker of just how far the fragmentation of the voting public has gone over the past decade.”

 

The Conservatives would fare even worse, losing 75 more seats and falling to just 46 MPs—leaving Kemi Badenoch’s party trailing Reform, Labour, and the Liberal Democrats. While Badenoch would retain her seat, senior Tories including former foreign secretary Sir James Cleverly and former chancellor Sir Jeremy Hunt would be swept out. Of the 119 current Tory MPs, 73 would lose their seats, with many falling to Reform and the Lib Dems.

 

 

Labour’s front bench would also be gutted. According to the poll, home secretary Yvette Cooper, deputy prime minister Angela Rayner, and education secretary Bridget Phillipson would all be defeated by Reform challengers. Other projected Labour casualties include business secretary Jonathan Reynolds, culture secretary Lisa Nandy, defence secretary John Healey, and Cabinet Office minister Pat McFadden.

 

The Lib Dems, meanwhile, would continue their resurgence, climbing from 72 seats in 2024 to 81, their highest total in decades. The SNP is expected to bounce back from its previous losses, reclaiming most of the Scottish seats lost to Labour and securing a total of 38. Smaller parties would also benefit: both the Greens and Plaid Cymru are predicted to gain three seats each, bringing them to seven MPs apiece.

 

Despite its surge, Reform would fall short of an outright majority. A coalition with the Conservatives would still leave the right-leaning bloc nine seats shy. On the other side, Labour would be unable to form a majority even with support from the Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid Cymru, and Greens.

 

The MRP poll, based on over 11,000 interviews and considered one of the most reliable predictors of seat-level outcomes, paints a picture of a political order being upended. Labour and the Conservatives—dominant forces in British politics for over a century—are projected to win only 224 of the 650 seats between them, a mere 34 per cent of Parliament. Their combined vote share has dropped to just 41 per cent, down from 59 per cent at the last election.

 

Reform’s gains are widespread and geographically diverse. The party is projected to be the largest in the east Midlands, east of England, northeast, southeast, Wales, West Midlands, and Yorkshire and the Humber. It is even set to match Labour in the northwest, a region traditionally dominated by the left.

 

The political map shows that Reform would seize 194 seats from Labour alone. Starmer’s party would also lose 27 seats to the SNP in Scotland, six to the Tories in England, three to the Greens, three to Plaid, and one to the Lib Dems.

 

This unprecedented surge for Farage and collapse for the traditional parties is likely to trigger intense pressure on both Starmer and Badenoch. Labour faces internal rebellion, particularly from MPs concerned about the political costs of welfare cuts, while Badenoch may face a leadership challenge before the next election.

 

In a single year, British politics has been transformed. Reform UK, once a fringe movement, now stands on the brink of making Nigel Farage the next prime minister of the United Kingdom.

 

  Adapted by ASEAN Now from The Times  2025-06-28

 

 

[Chomper Higgot]

The election isn’t due for another 4 years.

 

Time one would think for Reform to come up with some actual coatings for their basket of easy promises.

[brewsterbudgen]

Plenty of time for Reform to implode, which they surely will!

[The Cyclist]

2 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

The election isn’t due for another 4 years.

 

Correct.

 

Just imagine how much of cluster Labour will be by then.

 

By- Election wins for Reforms over the last few days, Labour dropping around 25% at each one, including Lyndsey Hoyles constituency.

 

2 hours ago, brewsterbudgen said:

Plenty of time for Reform to implode, which they surely will!

 

Reform have no need to implode

 

They just need to sit back and watch Labour eating itself.

 

Tories are gnawing on the bones of a not quite deceased carcass.

 

Whatever way anyone tries to slice and dice it. For a Party that proclaimed loudly that they had a plan ready to from day . Somebody must have nicked that plan, they were lying like a big bag of lying things, or their plan consisted of driving the UK into the ground.

 

U turn after U turn, meaning more tax rises in the Autumn

 

Unemployment UP

 

Welfare Bill UP

 

Inflation UP

 

Tax Rises UP

 

Wealth creators fleeing the Country UP

 

Different groups of people hating Labour UP

 

Illegals almost 50% UP

 

C'mon you 2. Give us the benefit of your mentalism by explaining how good the plan was, and how it is benefiting the Country ?
 

People with inquiring minds, would like to at least try and understand the mentalism.