Set- What Are Your Views.

[Donnyboy]

Looks like another tough day on the SET, with the 800 being breached. Looks likely that it will be heading down to test the 780 support with all the foreigners selling up. Long term is still good thou or is it? With all the talk of the SET heading to 900-1000 this year a couple of weeks ago, is this going to be cancelled. Does anyone have a clue? As Im still a newbie when it comes to all this stuff, and I still have a hand in a few stocks that have taken a hit.

The brokers say its a correction/US prime mortgages have had an influence on the world markets. Surely we can be affected too much with our undervalued stocks here. Better to stop loss or ride it out and hang in there?

[Irene]

Looks like another tough day on the SET, with the 800 being breached. Looks likely that it will be heading down to test the 780 support with all the foreigners selling up. Long term is still good thou or is it? With all the talk of the SET heading to 900-1000 this year a couple of weeks ago, is this going to be cancelled. Does anyone have a clue? As Im still a newbie when it comes to all this stuff, and I still have a hand in a few stocks that have taken a hit.

The brokers say its a correction/US prime mortgages have had an influence on the world markets. Surely we can be affected too much with our undervalued stocks here. Better to stop loss or ride it out and hang in there?

My strategy is simply to watch the subprime situation in the States and Europe whether is a temporary problem or affecting the credit system of the Western world. If you read and listen to CNBC or Bloomberg lately, it could be either way. Because of the European Central Bank has come out to support the liquidity of the money market, other central banks could follow. At the moment, I tend to hang on to the holdings. But once there is any sign of the seriousness of the meltdown or crash landing, I may change my stance very quickly.

[Abrak]

I think the Thai's stockmarkets time has come. I reckon from current levels you are into a couple of good years for the markets. The SET peaked in Jan 1996 at 1787 and thirteen years later we are still at half peak levels. I think the stockmarket will be easily above 1000 within 18 months. Reasonable valuations and low interest rates - perfect for a decent run in stocks....

[lannarebirth]

You are correct that there is some support at 780. Hitting that support should coincide with a gap fill near 11.00 on the TTF (Thai Fund) traded on the NYSE. I would expect some kind of bounce there. That said, there is an open gap in the SET chart about 520 which will fill eventually. That is where I will buy it for a LT hold. Whether that gets filled now or later, I have no idea. In the rare event that it doesn't fill, I'll have missed the boat, but I can certainly live with that.

[LaoPo]

Looks like another tough day on the SET, with the 800 being breached. Looks likely that it will be heading down to test the 780 support with all the foreigners selling up. Long term is still good thou or is it? With all the talk of the SET heading to 900-1000 this year a couple of weeks ago, is this going to be cancelled. Does anyone have a clue? As Im still a newbie when it comes to all this stuff, and I still have a hand in a few stocks that have taken a hit.

The brokers say its a correction/US prime mortgages have had an influence on the world markets. Surely we can be affected too much with our undervalued stocks here. Better to stop loss or ride it out and hang in there?

The SET dropped a 'modest' -0.86% today, down to 804.84 (Modest, in comparison to the world markets).

Europe, Asia and Australia/NZ are heavily down today/at the moment and Wall Street has still to open.

The main worries in the markets are indeed the prime mortgages in the US which are re-sold to worldwide financials, banks and insurance companies who suffer the most, worldwide.

The question is that virtually nobody knows for sure WHERE all the re-sold mortgages are sold to........ and to which institutions/banks/insurers....and...for HOW MUCH.

But, it is certain that MOST larger Banks in MOST countries (including Thailand, China, Japan for example) are involved and are stuck with these Prime Mortgages-packages for a smaller or bigger part.

[institutional] Investors who invested heavily in the SET lately are withdrawing their assets from the SET in order to keep up their liquidity in case they need the money elsewhere and/or in case they are committed to pay up for the same re-sold mortgages. These investors include Hedge Funds.

The situation is not yet severe IMHO, whether on the SET or other markets but it could become a disaster once more mortgage banks fall over.

If that happens it will be a domino effect on the markets and consumer product manufacturers -world wide- will be next...

It remains to be seen whether the US will put more liquidity funds into the market [like the ECB did for 2 days in a row now] and/or help major mortgage banks like Fanny and Freddy to take over the weaker companies.

Regarding your question, "Better to stop loss or ride it out and hang in there?":

It depends very much how desperate you need your invested money or not.

IMHO the SET will drop further next week and I would put a stop loss and sell if I were you [if you're on the profit* side] and step back in the market if the SET drops much further; but, hey, who am I...

* if you're on the down side [a lot]: sit still while they cut your hair and do nothing...

LaoPo

[j_cheung]

Looks like another tough day on the SET, with the 800 being breached. Looks likely that it will be heading down to test the 780 support with all the foreigners selling up. Long term is still good thou or is it? With all the talk of the SET heading to 900-1000 this year a couple of weeks ago, is this going to be cancelled. Does anyone have a clue? As Im still a newbie when it comes to all this stuff, and I still have a hand in a few stocks that have taken a hit.

The brokers say its a correction/US prime mortgages have had an influence on the world markets. Surely we can be affected too much with our undervalued stocks here. Better to stop loss or ride it out and hang in there?

My strategy is simply to watch the subprime situation in the States and Europe whether is a temporary problem or affecting the credit system of the Western world. If you read and listen to CNBC or Bloomberg lately, it could be either way. Because of the European Central Bank has come out to support the liquidity of the money market, other central banks could follow. At the moment, I tend to hang on to the holdings. But once there is any sign of the seriousness of the meltdown or crash landing, I may change my stance very quickly.

My gut feel is that the once-hidden Bernanke / Trichet "PUT" has popped from behind the curtains over the past 2 days:

Aug. 10

• ECB - $84 billion

• Fed - $19 billion

• Bk. of Japan - $8.5 billion

• Australia - $4.2 billion

Aug. 9

• ECB - $131 billion

• Fed - $12 billion

• Bk. of Canada - $1.1 billion

Almost identical to the same response that the West's central banks did back in '87 & '97 (yes, they come in decades ...). Get set for a big bull run in China & SEA bourses over next & possibly following year ...

[Misty]

IThe SET peaked in Jan 1996

for what it's worth, I think that was Jan 1994

[Irene]

IThe SET peaked in Jan 1996

for what it's worth, I think that was Jan 1994

Misty,

You are right. On Jan. 4, 1994, the HIGHEST closed at 1753.73 with a p/e of 31.

Thereafter, the LOWEST was at 207 on Sept. 4, 1998.

That tells you that the SET can make you or break you within a period of five years if you go in with wild idea or based on hearsays.

[Misty]

On Jan. 4, 1994, the HIGHEST closed at 1753.73 with a p/e of 31.

Thereafter, the LOWEST was at 207 on Sept. 4, 1998.

That tells you that the SET can make you or break you within a period of five years if you go in with wild idea or based on hearsays.

So true! I've been looking for an inexpensive data source with historic figures for the SET Index. Any suggestions? I thought the BoT's website used to have at least monthly SET figures in one of their downloadable excel files, but can't seem to find that now.

Cheers, Misty

[fletchsmile]

On Jan. 4, 1994, the HIGHEST closed at 1753.73 with a p/e of 31.

Thereafter, the LOWEST was at 207 on Sept. 4, 1998.

That tells you that the SET can make you or break you within a period of five years if you go in with wild idea or based on hearsays.

So true! I've been looking for an inexpensive data source with historic figures for the SET Index. Any suggestions? I thought the BoT's website used to have at least monthly SET figures in one of their downloadable excel files, but can't seem to find that now.

Cheers, Misty

Stock Exchange of Thailand has it's own website:

http://www.set.or.th

Also has stats for each year. Close, High and Low.High was in 1994 as mentioned 1,753.74

http://www.set.or.th/en/info/statistics/statistics_p1.html

Months are on the following

http://www.set.or.th/setresearch/frs_p1.html

[JimsKnight]

Come Monday morning 13th August 2007 when the thai stockmarket opens for trading will be the proof of the pudding boys.

The worldwide media have been speculating that the asian markets will be taking a hit from the USA sub-prime factor.

[Misty]

Stock Exchange of Thailand has it's own website:

http://www.set.or.th

Also has stats for each year. Close, High and Low.High was in 1994 as mentioned 1,753.74

http://www.set.or.th/en/info/statistics/statistics_p1.html

Months are on the following

http://www.set.or.th/setresearch/frs_p1.html

Thanks very much for that. Exactly what I was looking for, only looking in the wrong place on the SET's website.

Cheers, Misty