Nationalism threatens Cambodia’s economic ambitions

According to Scott Rawlinson, Cambodia’s Prime Minister Hun Manet has placed economic growth at the heart of his administration since succeeding his father Hun Sen in 2023. Yet his strategy of combining authoritarian developmentalism with surges of Khmer nationalism is beginning to show strain, particularly in the wake of violent border clashes with Thailand earlier this year.

Hun Manet’s Pentagonal Strategy aims to lift Cambodia to upper-middle income status by 2030 and high-income status by 2050. Major infrastructure projects, including the expansion of Sihanoukville port and construction of the Funan Techo Canal, are designed to modernise the economy and attract foreign investment. Airports in Siem Reap and Phnom Penh have also been opened to boost tourism and project legitimacy at home.

But cracks are emerging. A slowdown in China’s economy has hit investment flows, while questions over funding transparency for the Techo Canal have raised concerns. Construction and real estate downturns underline the fragility of growth, and the rise of cyber scams has damaged Cambodia’s reputation abroad, triggering sanctions.

The Thai–Cambodia border conflict in July 2025 further disrupted stability. Nationalist fervour was stoked by Hun Sen and Hun Many, who led mass rallies and imposed bans on Thai imports. While this bolstered short-term unity, the Asian Development Bank cut Cambodia’s growth forecast from 6.1 to 4.9 per cent for 2025, citing border tensions and uncertainty in export markets. Tourism also suffered: international arrivals fell by up to 40 per cent in the months following hostilities, with Thai visitors down more than 28 per cent compared to last year.

Hun Manet’s reliance on nationalism to consolidate legitimacy highlights the risks of authoritarian developmentalism. Economic growth is presented as the regime’s central promise, yet prolonged conflict undermines the peace and stability essential to delivering it.

The Cambodian case shows that while nationalist mobilisation can provide a temporary boost in popularity, it jeopardises the very conditions needed for sustained development. Balancing the “runways” of growth with the “redlines” of nationalism may prove the defining challenge of Hun Manet’s rule.

-2025-11-25