lannarebirth Posted October 9, 2008 Share Posted October 9, 2008 Do you feel lucky? Well , do ya? Explain please It's a regression to the mean chart. Getting close to the mean average for the first time in many years. Doesn't mean much, except to show how out of whack markets had gotten from historical performance. That is what I thought. I also thought after seeing that bubble for lack of better word ...that maybe it is a good thing then? We are back to a more normal range? But when I saw your do you feel lucky statement I wondered if you meant it is maybe a good time for folks to go in there? Not that I am going mind you I covered a 1/2 of my short positions at the close. I can;t thin of a reason to buy anything however. Frankly, I'm a little concerned there could be a "market holiday". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaoPo Posted October 9, 2008 Share Posted October 9, 2008 Also a few others *experts* on TV are saying time to dip a toe back in ......In their humble opinion of course PS: they say Materials...Techs & Financials is where they will dip their toes Really ? Well....be my guest.... The water is not very clear this time of year and before I dip MY toes in there I prefer you and your ''experts'' go first; there might still be a few (hundred) Piranhas, looking for a nice piece of meat... I'm not THAT greedy, so I leave the first profits to you... LaoPo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCA Posted October 9, 2008 Share Posted October 9, 2008 Also a few others *experts* on TV are saying time to dip a toe back in ......In their humble opinion of course PS: they say Materials...Techs & Financials is where they will dip their toes Really ? Well....be my guest.... The water is not very clear this time of year and before I dip MY toes in there I prefer you and your ''experts'' go first; there might still be a few (hundred) Piranhas, looking for a nice piece of meat... I'm not THAT greedy, so I leave the first profits to you... LaoPo indeed dont touch unless using submarine orders. From tomorrow the short ban ends and this is finally what is needed to end all the crazyness with a rollercoaster washout in the very near future I assume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingobongo Posted October 9, 2008 Author Share Posted October 9, 2008 (edited) well folks, its official , the 25+ yer uptrend (the red line in lower right hand corner of the upper chart) on the S&P has been broken.....................terrible GLOBAL pain is coming, and yes that includes LOS Edited October 9, 2008 by bingobongo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted October 9, 2008 Share Posted October 9, 2008 well folks, its official , the 25+ yer uptrend (the red line in lower right hand corner of the upper chart) on the S&P has been broken.....................terrible GLOBAL pain is coming, and yes that includes LOS what painkillers do you prescribe or advice do you have to avoid the pain Dr. Bingo? it is advisable that most of us expats leave Thailand because living expenses will increase and reach unbearable heights whereas all prices will fall in our home countries? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bizz Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 nikkei now down 10% Dow fut 337 asx 200 down 330 I did say 4 months ago that the € was headed way down against the $ Iceland is bankrupt The meltdown continues. The great depression of 1929-1933 saw a drop of 89% in stocks. Buy land with your telak and grow rice vegies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaoPo Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 GENERAL MOTORS dropped like a stone with.....-31.11% LaoPo GM says bankruptcy is not an option Fri Oct 10, 2008 9:51am EDT DETROIT (Reuters) - General Motors Corp said it was not considering bankruptcy protection as market turmoil continues and Barclays Capital said on Friday that the company's cash needs were increasing. Barclays cut its share-price target on GM to $4 on Friday, renewing potential pressure on the largest U.S. automaker. GM shares fell as much as 16 percent to $4 in early New York Stock Exchange trade, their lowest price since 1949, before recovering. They had plunged 31 percent on Thursday following news of a potential credit ratings downgrade and a forecaster's report that global auto markets could be in danger of an "outright collapse" in 2009. The company, which posted a second-quarter net loss of $15.5 billion, announced plans in July to improve its liquidity by about $15 billion by the end of 2009, about two-thirds through cost cuts and the rest through asset sales and new borrowing. "Clearly we face unprecedented challenges related to uncertainty in the financial markets globally and weakening economic fundamentals in many key markets," GM said in a statement on Friday. "But bankruptcy protection is not an option GM is considering," it said. "Bankruptcy would not be in the interests of our employees, stockholders, suppliers or customers." On Thursday, Standard & Poor's said it might cut the credit ratings of GM and rival Ford Motor Co deeper into "junk." Ford shares also dropped on Thursday, closing down 22 percent and setting a 26-year low on the NYSE after the S&P release. The ratings statement followed influential industry forecaster J.D. Power and Associates' warning that U.S. auto sales would be even lower in 2009 than in 2008 and that global auto markets in 2009 were in danger of an "outright collapse." Barclays said on Friday that heightened risks of a sharper decline in worldwide auto sales would also increase GM's cash needs. "With auto sales stalled in the (United States) and beginning to contract in the rest of the world, we believe GM's cash needs are increasing," Barclays analyst Brian Johnson said in a note for clients. Johnson said he estimated that GM would need to raise $10.3 billion to maintain liquidity of $14 billion through 2009. That figure was up from his earlier estimate that put GM's cash-raising need at $7.3 billion over the same period. GM shares were down unchanged at $4.76 in morning trading, while Ford rose 10 cents, or 4.8 percent, to $2.18. Reuters LaoPo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lannarebirth Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 GENERAL MOTORS dropped like a stone with.....-31.11% LaoPo GM says bankruptcy is not an option Fri Oct 10, 2008 9:51am EDT DETROIT (Reuters) - General Motors Corp said it was not considering bankruptcy protection as market turmoil continues and Barclays Capital said on Friday that the company's cash needs were increasing. Barclays cut its share-price target on GM to $4 on Friday, renewing potential pressure on the largest U.S. automaker. GM shares fell as much as 16 percent to $4 in early New York Stock Exchange trade, their lowest price since 1949, before recovering. They had plunged 31 percent on Thursday following news of a potential credit ratings downgrade and a forecaster's report that global auto markets could be in danger of an "outright collapse" in 2009. The company, which posted a second-quarter net loss of $15.5 billion, announced plans in July to improve its liquidity by about $15 billion by the end of 2009, about two-thirds through cost cuts and the rest through asset sales and new borrowing. "Clearly we face unprecedented challenges related to uncertainty in the financial markets globally and weakening economic fundamentals in many key markets," GM said in a statement on Friday. "But bankruptcy protection is not an option GM is considering," it said. "Bankruptcy would not be in the interests of our employees, stockholders, suppliers or customers." On Thursday, Standard & Poor's said it might cut the credit ratings of GM and rival Ford Motor Co deeper into "junk." Ford shares also dropped on Thursday, closing down 22 percent and setting a 26-year low on the NYSE after the S&P release. The ratings statement followed influential industry forecaster J.D. Power and Associates' warning that U.S. auto sales would be even lower in 2009 than in 2008 and that global auto markets in 2009 were in danger of an "outright collapse." Barclays said on Friday that heightened risks of a sharper decline in worldwide auto sales would also increase GM's cash needs. "With auto sales stalled in the (United States) and beginning to contract in the rest of the world, we believe GM's cash needs are increasing," Barclays analyst Brian Johnson said in a note for clients. Johnson said he estimated that GM would need to raise $10.3 billion to maintain liquidity of $14 billion through 2009. That figure was up from his earlier estimate that put GM's cash-raising need at $7.3 billion over the same period. GM shares were down unchanged at $4.76 in morning trading, while Ford rose 10 cents, or 4.8 percent, to $2.18. Reuters LaoPo I don't believe them. Companies like GM have been trying to unburden themselves of their "legacy" commitments for years. If they can take the market down far enough the general population will be hapy to throw those retirees to the wolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lannarebirth Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 Uh Oh! "Black Swan" chart pattern: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 ..................I don't believe them. Companies like GM have been trying to unburden themselves of their "legacy" commitments for years. If they can take the market down far enough the general population will be hapy to throw those retirees to the wolves. Me neither. GM, Ford, GE. Take your pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gumballl Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 Japan's markets are down nearly 1000 point today. What the fck -I'm going to buy a gun tomorrow and head for the woods. Today wood and paper products are down. However, word on the street say that pine cones are on the rise, and you won't need a gun to seduce them to jump into your backpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gumballl Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 ...Buy land with your telak and grow rice vegies. What are one's chances of growing ganja and getting away with it? It seems to me that Thai country folk mind their own business, and probably wouldn't notice if I were growing mint or a "gold mine". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 One other thing, I googled up an "idiot's guide" type graph for the DJIA 100 years. Although stocks took about 25 years to recover to pre-crash highs of 1929, those buying near the bottom even 18 months after the start of the crash were looking at a decent return. Interesting I think. http://bigpicture.typepad.com/.shared/imag...ear_periods.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCA Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 One other thing, I googled up an "idiot's guide" type graph for the DJIA 100 years.Although stocks took about 25 years to recover to pre-crash highs of 1929, those buying near the bottom even 18 months after the start of the crash were looking at a decent return. Interesting I think. http://bigpicture.typepad.com/.shared/imag...ear_periods.jpg of course stock trading or buying them as an investment will be as rewarding as it always was considering decisions are made by a prepared plan either fundamentally, technically or both. You will see high percentage fluctuations in the future there is no doubt and most likely will it become much more interesting than the past 20 years. It doesnt need to reach science fiction prices like bubbled up in the past due to insane leverage levels to create good investment oppurtunities. Just does it take a wash out and bottoming somewhere in a price range closer to earth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lannarebirth Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 Market closure coming? http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=aP5mpMUORBWM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgriffith Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 The fuses have blown on the circuit breakers..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaoPo Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 Market closure coming?http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=aP5mpMUORBWM from your link: Berlusconi Says Leaders May Close World's Markets (Update1) By Steve Scherer Oct. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi said political leaders are discussing the idea of closing the world's financial markets while they ``rewrite the rules of international finance.'' ``The idea of suspending the markets for the time it takes to rewrite the rules is being discussed,'' Berlusconi said today after a Cabinet meeting in Naples, Italy. A solution to the financial crisis ``can't just be for one country, or even just for Europe, but global.'' I don't think so; there are -just- 20 Finance Ministers present during the IMF meeting, this weekend in Washington. You need to have ALL finance ministers of ALL major countries to make a decision like that. Also, do the Finance ministers have FULL powers to make such a decision ? In the meantime: S&P is down -7% at the time I'm writing.... "...Worst Week Ever for S&P 500 Index" http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=news LaoPo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingobongo Posted October 10, 2008 Author Share Posted October 10, 2008 well folks, my time on this thread has concluded i started this thread on August 17, 2007 and was met with derision by fools, the inept, and amateurs, but happily i am the one laughing now i tried to provided guidance and warnings but kept my position despite the personal attacks thru it all, some of you on this thread are competent but most are fools (i won't mention names as there are too many bagholders to mention) i will leave you this last piece of guidance: 1) go long the Japanese Yen 2) the bottom on the DOW (and global markets) is not in yet if 7700 on the DOW is broken (if resistance at 8500 is cleared then bounce will come) 3) go to cash (get rid of stocks, condos, any debt and ALL commodities other than gold) 4) good luck as many of you will need it (i won't need luck becasue i choose to think instead) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lannarebirth Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 In the meantime: S&P is down -7% at the time I'm writing.... "...Worst Week Ever for S&P 500 Index" http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=news LaoPo Putting a positive spin on things, I note the Dow futures rallied 10% off their lows this morning, and a tank of petrol is getting cheaper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lannarebirth Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 (edited) I wouldn't be buying that Gold just yet bingo (at least not in $USD). Edited October 10, 2008 by lannarebirth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaoPo Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 well folks, my time on this thread has concludedi started this thread on August 17, 2007 and was met with derision by fools, the inept, and amateurs, but happily i am the one laughing now i tried to provided guidance and warnings but kept my position despite the personal attacks thru it all, some of you on this thread are competent but most are fools (i won't mention names as there are too many bagholders to mention) i will leave you this last piece of guidance: 1) go long the Japanese Yen 2) the bottom on the DOW (and global markets) is not in yet if 7700 on the DOW is broken (if resistance at 8500 is cleared then bounce will come) 3) go to cash (get rid of stocks, condos, any debt and ALL commodities other than gold) 4) good luck as many of you will need it (i won't need luck becasue i choose to think instead) C'mon Bingo, although you indeed started the thread which got more attention and non-believers.....I started this*** thread earlier than you, on 2007-07-26 23:01:32, called: Watch Your Steps At Thai SET..., as Global stocks end sharply lower as a warning there were bad times ahead. *** http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Watch-Steps-...ET-t132689.html The difference is that I'm not claiming "I was smarter than you...." and I don't call other members 'fools' although I agree there are some. I also agree with your: #2 - and part of # 3 , because condos depend on where/what they are for and regarding GOLD, it would be better to have certain Gold mines (shares) instead gold itself in bars or jewelry; in my own country gold+coins is/are impossible to get anymore). LaoPo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lannarebirth Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 One thing about US markets is, they are likely less levered up than overseas markets and shoould bottom earlier. You could try a pair trade, long US short foreign. Just thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaoPo Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 One thing about US markets is, they are likely less levered up than overseas markets and shoould bottom earlier. You could try a pair trade, long US short foreign. Just thinking. Is there any proof for your statement ? I would think it's the other way around.... And, which particular US markets are you talking about ? LaoPo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCA Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 (edited) One thing about US markets is, they are likely less levered up than overseas markets and shoould bottom earlier. You could try a pair trade, long US short foreign. Just thinking. I would not bet on that right now as there is something going on behind the curtain not priced in and released to its full extend. European and other central banks are putting heavily pressure on the US threatening to stop lending if they dont buy a big portion of their worthless paper back. In case they cannot find a compromise the current ratio can quickly turn around. If you want to trade pairs or spreads you'd play safer using country ETFs. Edited October 10, 2008 by PCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flying Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 One thing about US markets is, they are likely less levered up than overseas markets and shoould bottom earlier. You could try a pair trade, long US short foreign. Just thinking. I would not bet on that right now as there is something going on behind the curtain not priced in and released to its full extend. European and other central banks are putting heavily pressure on the US threatening to stop lending if they dont buy a big portion of their worthless paper back. In case they cannot find a comprimise the current ratio can quickly turn around. If you want to trade pairs or spreads you'd play safer using country ETFs. You know quite awhile back NAMM posted a link to a article about the German bank not being able to foreclose on some US debt. It was due to the bundles they had did not have deeds. At the time I asked if this was not like the US was passing counterfiet bills? But at the same time I can hardly believe that the German banks did not do any due diligence on what they bought or is there a different system when this type of business is done? Meaning buyer need not beware? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lannarebirth Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 One thing about US markets is, they are likely less levered up than overseas markets and shoould bottom earlier. You could try a pair trade, long US short foreign. Just thinking. Is there any proof for your statement ? I would think it's the other way around.... And, which particular US markets are you talking about ? LaoPo I don't have proof of it, only what I see. I see foreign currencies getting hit hard and emerging and other foreign markets getting hit even harder. We know cash is being raised through deleveraging, so I'm drawing the conclusion that a good deal of it resides overseas, and may still do so. It's like a puzzle, though I admit I could be missing a few pieces. You can see a lot, just by looking, - Yogi Berra Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaoPo Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 well folks, my time on this thread has concludedi started this thread on August 17, 2007 and was met with derision by fools, the inept, and amateurs, but happily i am the one laughing now i tried to provided guidance and warnings but kept my position despite the personal attacks thru it all, some of you on this thread are competent but most are fools (i won't mention names as there are too many bagholders to mention) i will leave you this last piece of guidance: 1) go long the Japanese Yen 2) the bottom on the DOW (and global markets) is not in yet if 7700 on the DOW is broken (if resistance at 8500 is cleared then bounce will come) 3) go to cash (get rid of stocks, condos, any debt and ALL commodities other than gold) 4) good luck as many of you will need it (i won't need luck becasue i choose to think instead) C'mon Bingo, although you indeed started the thread which got more attention and non-believers.....I started this*** thread earlier than you, on 2007-07-26 23:01:32, called: Watch Your Steps At Thai SET..., as Global stocks end sharply lower as a warning there were bad times ahead. *** http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Watch-Steps-...ET-t132689.html The difference is that I'm not claiming "I was smarter than you...." and I don't call other members 'fools' although I agree there are some. I also agree with your: #2 - and part of # 3 , because condos depend on where/what they are for and regarding GOLD, it would be better to have certain Gold mines (shares) instead gold itself in bars or jewelry; in my own country gold+coins is/are impossible to get anymore). LaoPo The difference is also that the SET dropped almost -50% since July 26th, 2007 whilst the DOW dropped -35% since you started your thread, August 27, 2007 (now some -40%). LaoPo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaoPo Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 In think we could see the DOW down to 8,000 (latest in Spring 2003) and Oil down to $ 60/bbl. (around 2006/07)LaoPo I didn't expect the 'experts' would agree so soon.... "With experts predicting a global economic slowdown, oil prices could fall to $60 a barrel, or lower - with gas prices soon to follow." http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/10/news/econo...sion=2008101013 DOW closed at 8,451.19 LaoPo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flying Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 oil prices could fall to $60 a barrel, or lower - with gas prices soon to follow." Good News at last Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flying Posted October 11, 2008 Share Posted October 11, 2008 I wouldn't be buying that Gold just yet bingo (at least not in $USD). I am curious why you feel this way. Aside from I do see the price drop today. Do you think many will be selling gold now to raise cash to buy into market again? If so that was a very quick time for gold as king yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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