Global Correction

[cclub75]

Wow, that's surprising. I'm not a USD bull at all, but I pulled back almost all my foreign positions and went big in US equities. I'm crazy that way.

I know you're a technician, what are you seeing to be bullish and against which currencies?

The point is : I'm not bullish... At all

And if you really -i suspect some irony in your comment- "went big in US equities", well i say "bravo". You are a gambler and as good one, you are going to loose 2 times : per value, and with the exchange rate.

But mai pen rai, right ? It's only money.

[Carmine6]

Wow, that's surprising. I'm not a USD bull at all, but I pulled back almost all my foreign positions and went big in US equities. I'm crazy that way.

I know you're a technician, what are you seeing to be bullish and against which currencies?

The point is : I'm not bullish... At all

And if you really -i suspect some irony in your comment- "went big in US equities", well i say "bravo". You are a gambler and as good one, you are going to loose 2 times : per value, and with the exchange rate.

But mai pen rai, right ? It's only money.

I was asking Lannarebirth about the dollar. I know you're not bullish.

[cclub75]

A good chart...

3 times in 2 month... the support of 80 has been broken or "leaked". And last time was... yesterday.

It's getting closer and closer.

And actually nobody knows what could happen when (and if) USD index break this support (valid since 20 years !), durably...

Because the perspective is simply too horrific.

But of course, everything will be okay. The FED is going to save us (and the "general elections" will save us too in Thailand by the way).

[lannarebirth]

USD is in free fall.

Watch the Yen and Euro !

After the job report (a mere "fuse" for the huge bomb that we are riding) published today in the US... we are again in "panic mode". Like august 9.

And wait for the FED...

It's going to be so funny (or tragic) to read again some posts of the "USD lovers brigade"...

I'm a $USD lover, but I won't be going down with the ship if the keel gives way.

Wow, that's surprising. I'm not a USD bull at all, but I pulled back almost all my foreign positions and went big in US equities. I'm crazy that way.

I know you're a technician, what are you seeing to be bullish and against which currencies?

I don't see much more than most other people, probably, but here are few observations. The Yen and US Treasuries bottomed at the same time. When the Yen goes up, secondary currencies, such as the AUD, NZD(looks like another shoe may drop here), and $CND go down. The EUR and GBP have bullish looking price action, but their charts show strong negative divergances(which need not matter if in superbullish trend). If they break, they will break hard and probably deeper than many would have thought. The $USD is in a downward trending channel on short, intermediate, and long term charts. It has very little chart support left and chart resistance at almost every price level above. The $USD is currently in a "bullish falling wedge" chart pattern. If it breaks out of it to the upside(which it may not in a superbearish trend), it will move strongly up with very shallow pullbacks. It will go further and faster than many would have thought. Additionally, Commitments of Traders Reports (Futures), show commercial traders (supposedly the "smart" money. very short the GBP and very long the $USD. It's sometimes hard to judge what may happen by viewing their positions, but as a general rule, it is said, "they are often early, but seldom wrong). My positions are I hold USD, but I'm long YG gold futures. I'm also short the GBP, but I booked 1/3 at lower levels and I'm not far away from getting stopped out on the remaining 2/3 at break even.

The $USD Index chart is ugly.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD...&a=63893762

[lannarebirth]

A good chart...

3 times in 2 month... the support of 80 has been broken or "leaked". And last time was... yesterday.

It's getting closer and closer.

And actually nobody knows what could happen when (and if) USD index break this support (valid since 20 years !), durably...

Because the perspective is simply too horrific.

But of course, everything will be okay. The FED is going to save us (and the "general elections" will save us too in Thailand by the way).

If you were being objective, you'd have noticed the $USD chart has many positive divergances as well.

[think_too_mut]

I don't see much more than most other people, probably, but here are few observations. The Yen and US Treasuries bottomed at the same time. When the Yen goes up, secondary currencies, such as the AUD, NZD(looks like another shoe may drop here), and $CND go down. The EUR and GBP have bullish looking price action, but their charts show strong negative divergances(which need not matter if in superbullish trend). If they break, they will break hard and probably deeper than many would have thought. The $USD is in a downward trending channel on short, intermediate, and long term charts. It has very little chart support left and chart resistance at almost every price level above. The $USD is currently in a "bullish falling wedge" chart pattern. If it breaks out of it to the upside(which it may not in a superbearish trend), it will move strongly up with very shallow pullbacks. It will go further and faster than many would have thought. Additionally, Commitments of Traders Reports (Futures), show commercial traders (supposedly the "smart" money. very short the GBP and very long the $USD. It's sometimes hard to judge what may happen by viewing their positions, but as a general rule, it is said, "they are often early, but seldom wrong). My positions are I hold USD, but I'm long YG gold futures. I'm also short the GBP, but I booked 1/3 at lower levels and I'm not far away from getting stopped out on the remaining 2/3 at break even.

The $USD Index chart is ugly.

Could you do something to your posts to make them readable?

Whatever you may have said in the above monolith string of characters, could have had some value if it were better presented.

[bingobongo]

the LARGEST mortgage broker in the US is canning 12,000 folks

on Sept 18, the Federal Reserve will decide on the Fed Funds Rate....if bernake cuts, the $ will tank and the baht gets stronger and gold and silver climb higher (thai exports get hurt some more), if he doesnt not cut, the US stock indices will plummet and the consumer squeeze continues (US buys less thai goods), and the gloabl correction will continue.......Sept 10 will be intersting for US when the market opens given the countrywide layoffs

Countrywide to Cut Up to 12,000 Jobs in Bid to Slash Costs and Cope With Soaring Foreclosures

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070907/countrywide...cuts.html?.v=18

Edited September 8, 2007 by bingobongo

[think_too_mut]

the LARGEST mortgage broker in the US is canning 12,000 folks

on Sept 18, the Federal Reserve will decide on the Fed Funds Rate....if bernake cuts, the $ will tank and the baht gets stronger and gold and silver climb higher (thai exports get hurt some more), if he doesnt not cut, the US stock indices will plummet and the consumer squeeze continues (US buys less thai goods), and the gloabl correction will continue.......Sept 10 will be intersting for US when the market opens given the countrywide layoffs

Countrywide to Cut Up to 12,000 Jobs in Bid to Slash Costs and Cope With Soaring Foreclosures

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070907/countrywide...cuts.html?.v=18

I never watch TV , lately in a hotel I saw on CNN the representative of flight attendants who said - today, we have 142 thousand less flight attendants in the US than before 9/11.

My comment: they are still flying.

Edited September 8, 2007 by think_too_mut

[A_Traveller]

142,000 less? That would be a massive attrition rate since based on Department of Labour statistics there were 102,000 Flight Attendents employed in the US in 2004.

Regards

[lannarebirth]

142,000 less? That would be a massive attrition rate since based on Department of Labour statistics there were 102,000 Flight Attendents employed in the US in 2004.

Regards

Let's hope it's some of those over 50 United meanies.

[think_too_mut]

142,000 less? That would be a massive attrition rate since based on Department of Labour statistics there were 102,000 Flight Attendents employed in the US in 2004.

Regards

Let's hope it's some of those over 50 United meanies.

That's the rubbish CNN has broadcasted. She was in, live.

The lady (flight attendants association or their trade union syndicate leader ) telling the numbers.

She may have had some weapons of mass destruction under her bra.

Just follow CNN and Fox. I am just vomiting back what junk CNN said.

Edited September 8, 2007 by think_too_mut

[A_Traveller]

142,000 less? That would be a massive attrition rate since based on Department of Labour statistics there were 102,000 Flight Attendants employed in the US in 2004.

Regards

Let's hope it's some of those over 50 United meanies.

That's the rubbish CNN has broadcasted. She was in, live.

The lady (flight attendants association or their trade union syndicate leader ) telling the numbers.

She may have had some weapons of mass destruction under her bra.

Just follow CNN and Fox. I am just vomiting back what junk CNN said.

Well, vomiting or not, according to the US Census in 2000 the total number of Transportation Attendants (455) SOC 39-6030 was 133,260 with 78.7% being female. This took all of 45 seconds to check on the census website.

Regards

[think_too_mut]

according to the US Census in 2000 the total number of Transportation Attendants (455) SOC 39-6030 was 133,260 with 78.7% being female. This took all of 45 seconds to check on the census website.

Regards

Fine. That lady was live in CNN program. Millions have seen her. It is only you and me arguing. The rest of the public have swallowed it, like a vitamin pill.

It was after some brawl on a flight where a (3yrs old) baby was "talking too much". Things like "this plane will crash, crash, crash".

Just question how true are other things they report about.

Glad that you found it. Thanks.

Egg on the CNN's face. And poor Americans that watch it.

[cclub75]

If you were being objective, you'd have noticed the $USD chart has many positive divergances as well.

Fair enough.

But speaking about the divergences in regard of the trend, it's like talking about the tail of... an elephant, don't you think ?

[bingobongo]

did anyone notice the $ index on friday? it broke past critial support of 80, well now the yen carry trade will unwind and it will be quite messy, hold on to your hats boys and girls as global markets will start to take it on the chin.... (baht will get stonger, further crippling the export dependent economy)

from a recent article......

Note that this dip below 80 is not likely to be the bottom. MACD and RSI are dropping in a manner which suggest more downside is highly probable. As the dollar drops, the yen strengthens.

The carry trade is no longer profitable if the yen is below 115. The yen is 113 and heading lower. Forcing traders to sell dollar-based assets and repatriate the funds into yen--the so-called unwinding of the trade--requires stupendous selling of equities, derivatives and bonds--whatever was purchased with the borrowed money. A key prop under the U.S. market has been kicked out.

Edited September 9, 2007 by bingobongo

[samran]

did anyone notice the $ index on friday? it broke past critial support of 80, well now the yen carry trade will unwind and it will be quite messy, hold on to your hats boys and girls as global markets will start to take it on the chin.... (baht will get stonger, further crippling the export dependent economy)

from a recent article......

Note that this dip below 80 is not likely to be the bottom. MACD and RSI are dropping in a manner which suggest more downside is highly probable. As the dollar drops, the yen strengthens.

The carry trade is no longer profitable if the yen is below 115. The yen is 113 and heading lower. Forcing traders to sell dollar-based assets and repatriate the funds into yen--the so-called unwinding of the trade--requires stupendous selling of equities, derivatives and bonds--whatever was purchased with the borrowed money. A key prop under the U.S. market has been kicked out.

Very little carry trade activity has been directed as US dollar denominated assets as I recall...I thought it was all going to AUD, NZD and maybe some Asian based countries...ie China and Thailand.

Based on this, how will the baht get stronger? If you are correct and carry trades are unwound, carry trade funded thai eqities will be sold and baht transferred into yen as well.....the baht will weaken vis a vis a basket of foreign currencies instead...

[fletchsmile]

The global bust is coming and not all the liquidity, denial, and som tham in the world will prevent it........

......

OK so assuming we entertain your idea: The world is coming to an end, the dollar is done for, stockmarkets are going to crash, the property bubble will burst etc

Where are you putting your assets, which currencies, countries, sectors etc and how long for?

[samran]

The global bust is coming and not all the liquidity, denial, and som tham in the world will prevent it........

......

OK so assuming we entertain your idea: The world is coming to an end, the dollar is done for, stockmarkets are going to crash, the property bubble will burst etc

Where are you putting your assets, which currencies, countries, sectors etc and how long for?

you are not expecting him to defend his views with any sort of basic economic argument are you? I mean, if there isn't a dodgy article in the tabloid Asia Times backing up his argument (their motto: Fox is too highbrow), then don't expect too much of reply.

[Carmine6]

did anyone notice the $ index on friday? it broke past critial support of 80, well now the yen carry trade will unwind and it will be quite messy, hold on to your hats boys and girls as global markets will start to take it on the chin.... (baht will get stonger, further crippling the export dependent economy)

from a recent article......

Note that this dip below 80 is not likely to be the bottom. MACD and RSI are dropping in a manner which suggest more downside is highly probable. As the dollar drops, the yen strengthens.

The carry trade is no longer profitable if the yen is below 115. The yen is 113 and heading lower. Forcing traders to sell dollar-based assets and repatriate the funds into yen--the so-called unwinding of the trade--requires stupendous selling of equities, derivatives and bonds--whatever was purchased with the borrowed money. A key prop under the U.S. market has been kicked out.

Very little carry trade activity has been directed as US dollar denominated assets as I recall...I thought it was all going to AUD, NZD and maybe some Asian based countries...ie China and Thailand.

Based on this, how will the baht get stronger? If you are correct and carry trades are unwound, carry trade funded thai eqities will be sold and baht transferred into yen as well.....the baht will weaken vis a vis a basket of foreign currencies instead...

That's what I was thinking. There just aren't a whole lot of high yielding things in US dollars. In fact given the dollar trend the last few years, the US was a poor choice for the carry trade.

[samran]

did anyone notice the $ index on friday? it broke past critial support of 80, well now the yen carry trade will unwind and it will be quite messy, hold on to your hats boys and girls as global markets will start to take it on the chin.... (baht will get stonger, further crippling the export dependent economy)

from a recent article......

Note that this dip below 80 is not likely to be the bottom. MACD and RSI are dropping in a manner which suggest more downside is highly probable. As the dollar drops, the yen strengthens.

The carry trade is no longer profitable if the yen is below 115. The yen is 113 and heading lower. Forcing traders to sell dollar-based assets and repatriate the funds into yen--the so-called unwinding of the trade--requires stupendous selling of equities, derivatives and bonds--whatever was purchased with the borrowed money. A key prop under the U.S. market has been kicked out.

Very little carry trade activity has been directed as US dollar denominated assets as I recall...I thought it was all going to AUD, NZD and maybe some Asian based countries...ie China and Thailand.

Based on this, how will the baht get stronger? If you are correct and carry trades are unwound, carry trade funded thai eqities will be sold and baht transferred into yen as well.....the baht will weaken vis a vis a basket of foreign currencies instead...

That's what I was thinking. There just aren't a whole lot of high yielding things in US dollars. In fact given the dollar trend the last few years, the US was a poor choice for the carry trade.

don't worry, I think we are OK with our thinking. Bingoboingos' idea of a good economy is Saudi Arabia, who's GDP per head has shrank 20% since the early 1980's. Based on this logic, I'm not sure what constitutes a good economy in his book.

[Carmine6]

don't worry, I think we are OK with our thinking. Bingoboingos' idea of a good economy is Saudi Arabia, who's GDP per head has shrank 20% since the early 1980's. Based on this logic, I'm not sure what constitutes a good economy in his book.

I'm not worried. If I scared easily I would have gone all cash a month ago, or maybe gold. If the yen carry forces more panic sales, it's just a chance to buy cheaper.

Edited September 9, 2007 by Carmine6

[Naam]

(bingobongo @ 2007-08-17 20:25:54)

The global bust is coming and not all the liquidity, denial, and som tham in the world will prevent it........

and the sky? what about the sky? will it be falling triggered by thai xenophobia? will the applied racism of baht bus drivers towards farangs enhance the worldwide liquidity crisis? will carry trades boom because retirees enter that segment to make up for the blocked capital of THB 800k needed for their foreign spouses?

and most important: will Weho get triple charged for a bowl of rice after the bust?

[Naam]

There just aren't a whole lot of high yielding things in US dollars.

there aren't?

[Naam]

The global bust is coming

down the life boats. women and children first!

[samran]

(bingobongo @ 2007-08-17 20:25:54)

The global bust is coming and not all the liquidity, denial, and som tham in the world will prevent it........

and the sky? what about the sky? will it be falling triggered by thai xenophobia? will the applied racism of baht bus drivers towards farangs enhance the worldwide liquidity crisis? will carry trades boom because retirees enter that segment to make up for the blocked capital of THB 800k needed for their foreign spouses?

and most important: will Weho get triple charged for a bowl of rice after the bust?

Important questions, all of them. I'm sure the Asia Times has an answer for us.....

[bingobongo]

Sept 18 at 2:15pm E.S.T, bernake (head of US fed reserve) will announce the stance on the US fed funds rate

if he drops the rate, the $ will further decline and the Yen, gold, silver will climb.....as the yen carry trade becomes less profitable, bonds/stocks/ and $ will be sold off

if he does not drop rates, the US market will take it on the chin (as the market is begging for a rate cut due to the bad jobs report last week).........this will be an intersting few weeks

samran, i am talking about the baht/US$ rate, not the baht/yen rate.........thai exporters are relying on the US consumer which is getting poorer every day

Edited September 9, 2007 by bingobongo

[lannarebirth]

If you were being objective, you'd have noticed the $USD chart has many positive divergances as well.

Fair enough.

But speaking about the divergences in regard of the trend, it's like talking about the tail of... an elephant, don't you think ?

Well, it depends on your situation. If I was short the $USD, that wouldn't be enough to get me to cover. If I was looking to position myself long, it would be enough for me to start nibbling.

[lannarebirth]

did anyone notice the $ index on friday? it broke past critial support of 80, well now the yen carry trade will unwind and it will be quite messy, hold on to your hats boys and girls as global markets will start to take it on the chin.... (baht will get stonger, further crippling the export dependent economy)

from a recent article......

Note that this dip below 80 is not likely to be the bottom. MACD and RSI are dropping in a manner which suggest more downside is highly probable. As the dollar drops, the yen strengthens.

The carry trade is no longer profitable if the yen is below 115. The yen is 113 and heading lower. Forcing traders to sell dollar-based assets and repatriate the funds into yen--the so-called unwinding of the trade--requires stupendous selling of equities, derivatives and bonds--whatever was purchased with the borrowed money. A key prop under the U.S. market has been kicked out.

You could very well be right about the $USD falling further, maybe even much further, but the argument you make is faulty. The US Bond market is at least 5 times bigger than the US stock markets, and UST bonds bottomed and began rallying at the same time as the Yen.

[lannarebirth]

Sept 18 at 2:15pm E.S.T, bernake (head of US fed reserve) will announce the stance on the US fed funds rate

if he drops the rate, the $ will further decline and the Yen, gold, silver will climb.....as the yen carry trade becomes less profitable, bonds/stocks/ and $ will be sold off

if he does not drop rates, the US market will take it on the chin (as the market is begging for a rate cut due to the bad jobs report last week).........this will be an intersting few weeks

samran, i am talking about the baht/US$ rate, not the baht/yen rate.........thai exporters are relying on the US consumer which is getting poorer every day

You should learn what Fed Fund Futures are. The market prices evrything in well before actual planned events take place.

[lannarebirth]

Todays factoid:

The minimum criteria for the decline to a 4-year cycle low is 10% and we reached that August 16. But in 85% of historical cases, the sell off to that low is at least 20%, so there may be a lot more to go before the cycle window ends.