Global Correction

[LaoPo]

Just popped in to say hi and make sure every thing's going OK and everyone's playing well together - yup, everything looks fine to me so I'll head back to the "taxi" thread. Keep up the good work.

Thanks and don't forget to let us know if there are scams going on, with the taxis. It could influence the Global Correction you know...

LaoPo

[VegasVic]

ok kiddies, lets see if you have learned anything........sell this bounce but not yet as she still has some upside

this bounce may run all the way to the FOMC on Jan 30, after that,its down we go again.....you have been warned.....AGAIN

Come on Bingo, here we are a month later and the DOW closed around 12,600 today. I have to say that I am getting a little impatient waiting for your 11,300 DOW prediction, I am ready to go bargain hunting again so lets get the lead out and get this market down

[LaoPo]

ok kiddies, lets see if you have learned anything........sell this bounce but not yet as she still has some upside

this bounce may run all the way to the FOMC on Jan 30, after that,its down we go again.....you have been warned.....AGAIN

Come on Bingo, here we are a month later and the DOW closed around 12,600 today. I have to say that I am getting a little impatient waiting for your 11,300 DOW prediction,

I am ready to go bargain hunting again so lets get the lead out and get this market down

If you're bargain hunting NOW....you might get burned VV......you better wait.

That advice is for free....

LaoPo

Edited February 26, 2008 by LaoPo

[VegasVic]

ok kiddies, lets see if you have learned anything........sell this bounce but not yet as she still has some upside

this bounce may run all the way to the FOMC on Jan 30, after that,its down we go again.....you have been warned.....AGAIN

Come on Bingo, here we are a month later and the DOW closed around 12,600 today. I have to say that I am getting a little impatient waiting for your 11,300 DOW prediction, I am ready to go bargain hunting again so lets get the lead out and get this market down

Oops! Better make that 12,700 on the DOW (strong gains today despite the rise in the PPI), but more importantly keep an eye on the S&P 500, its back to 1382 and if it were to move through 1395 then TA tells me that it will breakout to the upside I am still rooting for your 11,300 prediction on the DOW however, because I would really love to buy back into BAC at the $37/sh level again, that last ride was really fun

[LivinLOS]

but more importantly keep an eye on the S&P 500, its back to 1382 and if it were to move through 1395 then TA tells me that it will breakout to the upside

Yeah keep watching it, because someday it will break through the levels it was at the start of the decade !!! LOL Of course only pre inflation adjusted levels..

Hows those Vegas condos doing ?? Down >15% I read yesterday..

[LaoPo]

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke just finished his speech:

Bernanke Pledges Fed Will Act in a `Timely Manner'

Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the U.S. central bank ``will act in a timely manner'' to insure against ``downside risks'' to the economy.

``The Federal Open Market Committee will be carefully evaluating incoming information bearing on the economic outlook and will act in a timely manner as needed to support growth and to provide adequate insurance against downside risks,'' Bernanke said in semiannual testimony on the economy before the House Financial Services Committee in Washington.

Bernanke's remarks may reinforce investors' expectations that the central bank will lower interest rates further to help a faltering economy. While officials have expressed concern that inflation is accelerating, Bernanke signaled he shares Vice Chairman Donald Kohn's view that financial market turmoil and slowing growth pose the ``greater threat.''

The Fed chief's testimony came as government figures today showed the U.S. economic expansion, now in its seventh year, is increasingly in peril. Durable-goods orders fell 5.3 percent, more than forecast, in January as companies reduced spending. New-home sales fell last month to the lowest level since February 1995 even as prices slid by a record 15 percent from a year ago.

Bernanke referred to ``downside'' risks for the economy four times in his testimony, and noted that data since the last Fed meeting in January pointed to ``sluggish'' growth. Policy choices have also become more complicated as energy and commodity prices rose in recent weeks, he indicated.

Risks to Growth

Risks to the outlook include ``the possibilities that the housing market or the labor market may deteriorate more than is currently anticipated and that credit conditions may tighten substantially further,'' the Fed chairman said.

Traders anticipate the central bank will lower the benchmark rate by at least half a point by the end of the next meeting, on March 18, futures prices show. Officials have lowered the rate by 2.25 percentage points since September, to 3 percent.

A half-point reduction to 2.5 percent would bring the rate adjusted for inflation, less food and energy, to almost zero.

Bernanke, 54, is in the seventh month of a credit crisis that began with rising delinquencies on subprime mortgages, while also grappling with the economic impact of the worst housing recession in a quarter century. Banks are making it tougher to get loans after financial companies posted $162 billion in asset writedowns and credit losses since the beginning of 2007.

Inflation Picks Up

At the same time, inflation is accelerating and the public's expectations for prices may also be rising, Bernanke said. He reiterated remarks from testimony to a Senate hearing Feb. 14 indicating policy makers will increasingly take account of the inflation outlook later in the year as the economy stabilizes.

``Further increases in the prices of energy and other commodities in recent weeks, together with the latest data on consumer prices, suggest slightly greater upside risks to the projections of both overall and core inflation than we saw last month,'' Bernanke said.

In its separate monetary-policy report released with the testimony, the Fed said near-term inflation expectations, measured by surveys, ``rose somewhat in 2007 and early 2008, presumably because of the increase in headline inflation.'' Longer-term expectations ``changed only slightly,'' the Fed report said.

``A critical task for the Federal Reserve over the course of this year will be to assess whether the stance of monetary policy is properly calibrated to foster our mandated objectives of maximum employment and price stability,'' the Fed chairman said.

Payrolls Drop

Economic reports since the Fed last met on Jan. 29-30 showed the first decline in U.S. payrolls in more than four years in January and a slide in consumer confidence to the lowest level since 2003 this month.

``The economic situation has become distinctly less favorable since the time of our July report,'' Bernanke said. Still, the $168 billion stimulus package enacted by Congress and signed by President George W. Bush this month and continued gains in exports should help growth, he said.

In the semiannual report, the Fed said that the U.S. economy ``seems to have entered 2008 with little momentum.'' Labor demand ``has slowed further of late,'' it said.

The semiannual monetary policy report used to include a twice-a-year set of economic forecasts by Fed governors and district bank presidents. Bernanke last year increased the frequency of the predictions to quarterly, and the latest projections were released Feb. 20 and included in today's report.

Fed Forecasts

The projections showed officials lowered their prediction for economic growth this year by half a point, to 1.3 percent to 2 percent. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News predict economic growth will slow to a 0.5 percent annualized pace in the first quarter after expanding 0.6 percent in the previous three months.

Fed officials see inflation returning toward their preference range of 1.7 to 2 percent after running at a 2 to 2.2 percent pace this year, minus food and energy.

Bernanke said the forecasts depend in part on a flattening in energy and food prices. Crude oil this month surpassed $100 a barrel for the first time.

Bernanke focused the final pages of his testimony on the Fed's efforts to strengthen consumer protections and prevent foreclosures.

``The Federal Reserve continues to work with financial institutions, public officials, and community groups around the country to help homeowners avoid foreclosures,'' Bernanke said. ``We are actively pursuing other ways to leverage the Federal Reserve's analytical resources, regional presence, and community connections to address this critical issue.''

Democratic Representative Barney Frank, who chairs the House panel, yesterday announced a proposal to provide $35 billion in federal funds to buy homes in foreclosure and offer refinancing for ``distressed'' homeowners.

Frank also proposed expanding the Federal Housing Administration's ability to process and underwrite loans, and increasing funding for homeowner-counseling programs in a document outlining his panel's budget priorities.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=news

LaoPo

[bingobongo]

hi kiddies, well inflation is raging in all parts of the globe, from wheat prices, oil, gold, and stock markets, and pork prices......bernake mentioned more rate cuts, which means that things such as the pork in a thai persons bowl will climb more than the 35%YOY it already has

BOT did not cut rates (on Feb 27 as expected) therby admitting that inflation in LOS needs to be managed

this rally has room to run (on the DOW) up to around 13200 before it runs out of steam, and yes, I will get short again once it reaches that point

so enjoy the next 500 points or so upside (on the DOW), i am

play the tape given to you

Edited February 27, 2008 by bingobongo

[VegasVic]

hi kiddies, well inflation is raging in all parts of the globe, from wheat prices, oil, gold, and stock markets, and pork prices......bernake mentioned more rate cuts, which means that things such as the pork in a thai persons bowl will climb more than the 35%YOY it already has

BOT did not cut rates (on Feb 27 as expected) therby admitting that inflation in LOS needs to be managed

this rally has room to run (on the DOW) up to around 13200 before it runs out of steam, and yes, I will get short again once it reaches that point

so enjoy the next 500 points or so upside (on the DOW), i am

play the tape given to you

"I will get SHORT AGAIN once it reaches that point" Wow BB, I seem to have missed the post where you claimed to have covered your existing short! Of course I also missed that elusive post of yours last summer where you claimed to have shorted CFC at $32/sh. You know you knid of lose credibility when you pull this kind of ex post facto stuff! Perhaps next time around you will show us your true brillance by calling a short the day you take the position and then let us know the day you cover that short I am currently in cash, energy trusts and a few high yielding munis I just stole recently and have been very fortunate to have made some highly profitable trades since last August (many of which are documented here on the actual days that I bought and sold, imagine that!), so personally I hope that we really see your doomsday prediction of an 11,300 DOW as that would bring forth some of the greatest bargains of my lifetime, however while the DOW still has some volitility left, I fear that it has already put in its lows. The rising prices of oil, gold and to a lesser degree wheat, soybeans and corn are more a function of the weak U.S. dollar, speculation and hording, than they are actual demand driven therefore much of this inflation will be short lived as commodities are due for a big tumble later this year. Thats not to say all countries will see a moderation of inflation, China is operating on a different dynamic and inflation will likely continue there for quite a while, and Europe is currently between a rock and a hard place given the strong Euro and an overly conservative central banks preoccupation with inflation and their unwillingness to lower rates thus far. The E.U. is being painted into a corner and when rates do finally drop it will be a very precipitous fall and it will likely be very ugly later this year for the E.U. . There are plenty of opportunities in world markets both on the short and long side currently, it seems that you are a perenial short and if that is true you are currently and will be missing out on many great opportunities in the market. One final note, look for oil to lead the downturn in commodities, we should see sub $85/bbl oil by the middle of May.

[LaoPo]

Buffett says U.S. in recession

Mon Mar 3, 2008 12:56pm EST

By Jonathan Stempel

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Billionaire investor Warren Buffett said on Monday the U.S. economy is in recession and that stocks are "not cheap" despite recent declines.

Buffett also said he is no longer offering to guarantee $800 billion of municipal bonds backed by MBIA Inc (MBI.N: Quote, Profile, Research), Ambac Financial Group Inc (ABK.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and FGIC Corp, three bond insurers that ran into trouble from also backing riskier debt.

Speaking on CNBC television, Buffett said the economy is heading south even though gross domestic product has not yet fallen for two straight quarters, a definition many economists use to identify a recession.

Buffett also said the slowing economy and the housing slump are hurting his Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRKa.N: Quote, Profile, Research) (BRKb.N: Quote, Profile, Research) insurance and investment company, whose 76 operating units sell such things as bricks, carpeting, ice cream, paint, real estate brokerage services and underwear.

"By any common sense definition, we are in a recession," Buffett said. "Business is slowing down. We have retail stores in candy, home furnishings and jewelry; across the board, I'm seeing a significant slowdown."

Last week the Commerce Department said U.S. GDP rose at an annual rate of just 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter.

Known as the Oracle of Omaha, the 77-year-old Buffett is one of the world's richest people, regarded by many as America's greatest investor. Forbes magazine last September estimated his net worth at $52 billion.

Buffett said economic conditions have not deteriorated to levels in 1973 and 1974, a deep recession also marked by rising oil prices and falling stocks.

He said Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke faces a "very tough balancing act" in trying to boost economic growth without rekindling inflation. Some economists worry the U.S. economy could enter a period of "stagflation," combining recession with rising inflation and unemployment.

"In '73 and '74, we had this stagflation situation, and we really had a meltdown in equity prices," Buffett said. "We are seeing more fixed-income type forced liquidations. We are seeing more indigestion at banks with a lot of loans they don't want to have. So you're seeing a time of easy money in terms of price, but not so easy money in terms of availability."

While Buffett said he might buy more downtrodden stocks, he's also looking at bond investments that could rise. Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire last year spent $19.11 billion on stocks and $13.39 billion on bonds.

"At 1,300-plus on the S&P, stocks are not cheap," Buffett said, referring to the Standard & Poor's 500 index .SPX, which has fallen about 16 percent since mid-October.

"I find more things to look at now than I did six months or a year ago, but I would say it's changed more dramatically in the fixed-income market than it has in the equity market," he added. "That may be where I find the opportunities."

BOND INSURERS

Falling security values and liquidity have pummeled bond insurers. On February 12, Buffett offered to reinsure $800 billion of relatively safe municipal bonds, which are typically used to finance such things as hospitals, roads and schools.

But he offered to back the bonds only at a steep premium. His offer also excluded risky debt, including securities tied to subprime mortgages, that bond insurers had agreed to guarantee in recent years to bolster profit.

Bond insurers rejected the offer and have been seeking new sources of capital. Some have also been considering separating their municipal bond business from riskier businesses.

Buffett on Monday said his earlier offer is now "not on the table," saying, "We tossed our hat in the ring and they tossed the hat back."

In December, Buffett started his own bond insurer, Berkshire Hathaway Assurance Corp. He said that unit has insured about 206 municipal bonds in the last three weeks.

On Friday, Berkshire said fourth-quarter profit fell 18 percent to $2.95 billion, or $1,904 per Class A share.

The decline stemmed in part from lower insurance premiums, a trend Buffett expects to continue in 2008, and weakness in businesses tied to housing.

Since 1965, Buffett has transformed Berkshire into a $216 billion conglomerate by acquiring out-of-favor companies with strong earnings and management, and investing in stocks.

In midday trading Berkshire Class A shares were down $4,000, or 2.9 percent, to $136,000, while its Class B shares fell $145.50, or 3.1 percent, to $4,529.00.

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idU...0080303?sp=true

LaoPo

[LaoPo]

Citigroup, after a (more than) 54% downfall in the past 12 months (down from $ 55 to $ 22 now)...... seems to be in more deep trouble...

Citigroup May Need Cash as Losses Mount, Dubai Says

March 4 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc., the biggest U.S. bank, may need additional capital from outside investors as losses stemming from the collapse of the U.S. subprime mortgage market increase, the head of Dubai International Capital LLC said.

Citigroup received $7.5 billion in November from Dubai's neighbor, Abu Dhabi, after record mortgage losses wiped out almost half the company's market value and led to the departure of Chief Executive Officer Charles Prince. The New York-based company said in January it was getting another $14.5 billion from investors, including the governments of Singapore and Kuwait.

``It will take a lot more than that to rescue Citi and other financial institutions,'' said Sameer al-Ansari, the chief executive officer of Dubai International, at a private-equity conference in Dubai today. Dubai International is among the investment funds controlled by Dubai ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum.

Citigroup probably will report a first-quarter loss of $1.66 a share after $15 billion of mortgage-related writedowns, Merrill Lynch & Co. analyst Guy Moszkowski said in a report issued today. The company also may have $3 billion of markdowns from loans used to finance leveraged buyouts and commercial real estate, Moszkowski estimates.

Sovereign Funds

Citigroup slumped 54 percent in New York trading during the past 12 months. The stock fell 30 cents today to $22.79 in German trading.

Moszkowski also cut his earnings estimates today for Bank of America Corp., the second-largest U.S. bank by assets, and Wachovia Corp., the country's No. 4 bank, because of the deteriorating credit markets. Both companies are based in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Arab states led by Qatar, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, which are loaded with cash from record oil and gas revenue, have purchased stakes in U.S. and European financial institutions, including Merrill Lynch & Co., Morgan Stanley and UBS AG, as losses mounted from the U.S. mortgage market.

In all, banks and securities firms have so far raised about $105 billion from sovereign wealth funds, governments and public investors, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Dubai International has invested in companies including London-based HSBC Holdings Plc, Europe's biggest bank by market value, and New York-based hedge fund Och-Ziff Capital Management Group LLC.

``Gulf sovereign wealth funds will continue to be interested in the major U.S. financial institutions,'' said Giyas Gokkent, the head of research at National Bank of Abu Dhabi, the third- largest bank in the United Arab Emirates by market value. ``The scope for investments is going to be more limited than what we have seen so far.''

Prince Alwaleed

Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jasim bin Jaber al- Thani said Feb. 18 that the emirate is buying shares of Zurich- based Credit Suisse Group and plans to spend as much as $15 billion on European and U.S. bank stocks in the next year.

Abu Dhabi is Citigroup's largest shareholder, ahead of Los Angeles-based Capital Group Cos. and Saudi billionaire Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, Bloomberg data show.

The assets of state-managed funds have increased to $3.2 trillion, fueled by record oil prices and rising currency reserves. Analysts at New York-based Morgan Stanley estimate the funds' assets will reach $12 trillion by 2015.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=news

Note:

Some of the posters here keep on telling that all is well... ...yeah right.

I wonder what would happen if the Emirates/Arabs/Singapore/China would NOT step in to save these Financial -Western- Giants.

I also wonder what would happen if the FED and American Government would NOT step in to save their own banks (sub prime) and thus covering up the gigantic misbehavior and mis-management of the same Bank(er)s...

I know: the global downturn would occur faster that it is doing now

If this crisis is (once) over, the Financial world will never look the same anymore. A lot of Western Financials and Banks will sing a tiny song in comparison to the new Giants...

Wait until the Russians step in wit their billions of Oil money.

LaoPo

[LaoPo]

Here you go:

Bernanke Urges Banks to Forgive Portion of Mortgages (Update1)

By Scott Lanman and Steve Matthews

March 4 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, battling the worst housing recession in a quarter century, urged lenders to forgive portions of mortgages for more borrowers whose home values have declined.

``Efforts by both government and private-sector entities to reduce unnecessary foreclosures are helping, but more can, and should, be done,'' Bernanke said in a speech in Orlando, Florida today. ``Principal reductions that restore some equity for the homeowner may be a relatively more effective means of avoiding delinquency and foreclosure.''

Bernanke's call goes beyond the stance of the Bush administration and previous Fed comments. By comparison, the central bank's Feb. 27 report to Congress called for lenders to ``pursue prudent loan workouts'' through means such as modifying mortgage terms and deferring payments.

``Delinquencies and foreclosures likely will continue to rise for a while longer,'' Bernanke said in the comments to the Independent Community Bankers of America. ``Supply-demand imbalances in many housing markets suggest that some further declines in house prices are likely.''

Subprime borrowers are about to see their mortgage rates increase more than 1 percentage point, he said. ``Declines in short-term interest rates and initiatives involving rate freezes will reduce the impact somewhat, but interest-rate resets will nevertheless impose stress on many households.''

`Vigorous Response'

In the past, homeowners could refinance, though that option is now ``largely'' gone because sales of bonds backed by subprime mortgages ``have virtually halted,'' Bernanke said. ``This situation calls for a vigorous response.''

Bernanke didn't comment in his speech text on the outlook for the economy or interest rates. Traders expect the Federal Open Market Committee to lower the benchmark rate by 0.75 percentage point by or at the panel's next meeting on March 18, based on futures prices.

Bernanke signaled in congressional testimony last week that the Fed is prepared to lower rates again even amid signs of accelerating inflation.

Yesterday, the Fed and other regulators sent letters to institutions they supervise, encouraging the banks to report on their efforts to modify mortgages at risk of default.

``This will make it easier for regulators, the mortgage industry, lawmakers and homeowners to assess the effectiveness of these efforts,'' Fed Governor Randall Kroszner said in a statement yesterday.

Foreclosures Climb

The number of U.S. homeowners entering foreclosure rose 75 percent in 2007, with more than 1 percent in some stage of foreclosure during the year, according to RealtyTrac Inc. of Irvine, California. For the year, more than 2.2 million default notices, auction notices and bank repossessions were reported on about 1.3 million properties.

``Lenders tell us that they are reluctant to write down principal,'' Bernanke said. ``They say that if they were to write down the principal and house prices were to fall further, they could feel pressured to write down principal again.''

The Fed chairman countered that by reducing the amount of the loan, this ``may increase the expected payoff by reducing the risk of default and foreclosure.''

Bernanke spoke in a state that's among the worst affected by the housing collapse. Miami home prices have dropped 17.5 percent in the past year, the most of 20 large U.S. cities, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller index. Foreclosures in Florida jumped at more than double the nationwide pace, rising 158 percent in the past year, according to RealtyTrac.

Call to Investors

The Fed chief also urged investors in mortgage bonds to accept ``short payoffs'' of loans by allowing borrowers to refinance at a lower principal.

For investors, a reduction in principal that's ``sufficient to make borrowers eligible for a new loan would remove the downside risk to investors of additional writedowns or a re- default,'' Bernanke said. Original investors may be able to share in future gains in home prices under some plans, he said, citing a proposal by the Office of Thrift Supervision.

Last week, the Bush administration and congressional leaders sharpened their rhetoric over Democratic proposals to help stem foreclosures.

Representative Barney Frank of Massachusetts on Feb. 28 outlined a $15 billion plan to buy distressed mortgages from lenders, saying the ``cascade of foreclosures will continue'' without government action. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said such proposals ``do more harm than good.''

The administration is advocating a voluntary, industry- driven approach that urges the loan-servicing companies to modify mortgages for struggling borrowers.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=news

LaoPo

[LaoPo]

Gulf investors may not save Citigroup, Dubai executive says

By Mirna Sleiman Last update: 6:20 a.m. EST March 4, 2008

DUBAI (Zawya Dow Jones) -- Mideast sovereign wealth funds may fail to save troubled U.S. banking giant Citigroup Inc. unless more cash is pumped into the lender, the head of a $13 billion Dubai-owned investment firm said Tuesday.

Sameer Al Ansari, Chief Executive of Dubai International Capital told delegates at a private equity conference that it will take more than the combined efforts of the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, the Kuwait Investment Authority and Saudi investor Prince Alwaleed bin Talal to save the bank.

"It's going to take more than that to rescue Citi," Ansari said. He added that more write downs are expected and that Gulf investors would be required to bolster Citi.

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, or ADIA, a sovereign wealth fund owned by the world's fourth-largest oil exporter, last year bought a 4.9% stake in Citigroup.

The Kuwait Investment Authority also said in January it would invest $3 billion in Citigroup.

Al Ansari said "it would take a lot more money to rescue Citigroup." A spokesperson for Citi was unable to comment immediately when called Tuesday.

Dubai International Capital, an investment firm controlled by Dubai's ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al Maktoum, owns a stake in HSBC Holdings PLC, bought 3.12% in European Aeronautic Defence & Space Co last year. The company also owns a stake in Standard Chartered PLC, according to Zawya Investor.

The intervention of sovereign funds such as ADIA, which pumped $7.6 billion into Citi, has failed to stem a decline in the bank's share price that was first triggered by the emergence last year of an $11 billion sub-prime write-down that led to the resignation of the then embattled chief executive Charles 'Chuck' Prince.

Citi's share price has fallen by more than 33% since late November, when the ADIA stake purchase was first reported, till date to close at $23.09 Tuesday.

The bank said in January that it lost $9.83 billion in the fourth quarter spurred by $18 billion in write-downs. To stem the losses Citi said it planned to raise $14.5 billion in capital by selling stakes to investors including Saudi's Prince Alwaleed, the lenders largest single shareholder.

Since coming out in support of former chief executive Prince prior to his resignation billionaire Alwaleed has commented little on Citi's current travails.

A spokesperson for Prince Alwaleed's office didn't answer calls on Tuesday.

Middle East sovereign funds flush with cash from record oil earnings are looked upon as possible saviors for many international lenders reeling from continued U.S. sub-prime losses.

Sheikh Hamad bin Jassem Al Thani, chief executive of the Qatar Investment Authority, QIA, told Zawya Dow Jones in January that the emirate's sovereign wealth fund planned to invest up to $15 billion buying stakes in up to 12 blue-chip U.S. and European banks.

The Qatari fund said last month that it had built a significant stake in Credit Suisse Group. The Swiss lender later said it had incurred a $2.85 billion hit from bad trading.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/gulf...B8916D529B7B%7D

LaoPo

[LaoPo]

It looks pretty nasty on the NY stock market...

Financials got hurt bad and Mortgage Giants like Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac nose dived by -10.60% and -6.93%.

Merrill Lynch went down -7% whilst JP Morgan fell -3.5%

Citigroup went down with a -4.4%; mind you that Citigroup, one of the World's Financial Giants, lost already more than 60% of it's value since early January 2007 and that's a lot.

The Euro/$ climbed to an all time high reaching almost 1.54 as I write.

Exciting times.

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Stor...Market+Snapshot

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7281719.stm

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=news

Laopo

[LivinLOS]

Pounds back at 2.01.. Eur at 1.53 - 1.54.. Oil at 105.60.. Gold silver still up in the rarified air..

What did old VV say ?? Pound 1.8x's and EUR 1.3x for March ?? Now wheres my calender ??

[Naam]

Pounds back at 2.01.. Eur at 1.53 - 1.54.. Oil at 105.60.. Gold silver still up in the rarified air..

What did old VV say ?? Pound 1.8x's and EUR 1.3x for March ?? Now wheres my calender ??

VVic is a "tad" to biased and optimistic and listens perhaps too much what his "anal" friends at GS are telling him. by the way, the "anals" of my "savings&loan" institute are still convinced that the dollar will recover and forecast

EUR/USD in 3 months 1.46 and in 6 months time 1.35 - on GBP/USD their estimate is 1.91 / 187

ECB's Trichet however still rejects any rate cut as inflation estimates are between 2.5 and 3.2% and that paves the way for a further strengthening of the €UR.

[LivinLOS]

While I am flogging the dead horse a bit, its purely in jest..

I have almost as little faith in EUR or GBP as a store of value as I do the USD.. Inflation is the problem I see tho... All that newly minted money has to go somewhere..

[highdiver]

Buffett says U.S. in recession

Mon Mar 3, 2008 12:56pm EST

this is realy a bit funny that 3 days later this guy takes the lead from bill gates with a fortune of 62 billion dollars.

[highdiver]

While I am flogging the dead horse a bit, its purely in jest..

I have almost as little faith in EUR or GBP as a store of value as I do the USD.. Inflation is the problem I see tho... All that newly minted money has to go somewhere..

while we may as you said, flogg the dead horse... We need to remeber that the americans are still a very dominent economy and that they are very financialy minded and dedeicated to make all efforts to get back to the shopping spree life style.they also have enough reserves and power to manipulte curencies by buying back the dollars.

the americans have taken a choice of choosing growth over inflation they prefer this then stagflation once they achieved growth... it can take a while... they will raise the intrest rates to fight inflation.

everyone is now waiting for todays announcement of the payrolls data. will ther be an incease or not??

Traders are probably biting their fingernails while waiting for the jobs report..

Europe for many reasons but mainly conservetive attitude has chosen a diferent approach. while Eu is showing first signs of stagflation as the EU cuts its growth forecast, the Eu intrest remained at a 6 year high of 4% trying to fight inflation that in january passed the 3.2 %. they do so to stand chance of bringing inflation back below their 2 percent yearly target..so while europe has the similer problems as the US, they have chosen to fight inflation and not adress the growth factors.

once Europe will lower the rate to increase growth while the Americans will raise it to fight inflation we will see a shift in curencies value.

it will be very intresting to see which concpet will prove itself in the long run.

[Naam]

Europe for many reasons but mainly conservetive attitude has chosen a diferent approach. while Eu is showing first signs of stagflation as the EU cuts its growth forecast, the Eu intrest remained at a 6 year high of 4% trying to fight inflation that in january passed the 3.2 %. they do so to stand chance of bringing inflation back below their 2 percent yearly target..so while europe has the similer problems as the US, they have chosen to fight inflation and not adress the growth factors.

de jure a choice does not exist. the charta of the ECB is focused on protecting the value of the currency. no mentioning of addressing growth.

[Naam]

While I am flogging the dead horse a bit, its purely in jest..

I have almost as little faith in EUR or GBP as a store of value as I do the USD.. Inflation is the problem I see tho... All that newly minted money has to go somewhere..

how do i guide it towards me instead to "somewhere"?

Edited March 7, 2008 by Naam

[LaoPo]

U.S. Unexpectedly Lost 63,000 Jobs in February

March 7 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. unexpectedly lost jobs in February for the second consecutive month, adding to evidence the economy is in a recession.

Continues here:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=news

Fed Boosts Lending to Banks as Credit Rout Continues (to $ 100 Billion)

March 7 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve plans to boost the amount of loans it plans to make to banks this month to offset a deepening credit crunch threatening to tip the U.S. economy into a recession.

The central bank increased the size of auctions of four- week funds to banks planned for March 10 and March 24, to $50 billion each from $30 billion previously. The Fed also said in a statement in Washington today that it will make $100 billion available through repurchase agreements.

Continues here:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=news

LaoPo

[bingobongo]

Edited March 8, 2008 by bingobongo

[bingobongo]

dear God, its over, from Bangkok to New York to Tokyo, hopes and dreams destroyed.......no matter what central bankers do, nothing is going to stop the inevitable.......its coming

[LaoPo]

dear God, its over, from Bangkok to New York to Tokyo, hopes and dreams destroyed.......no matter what central bankers do, nothing is going to stop the inevitable.......its coming

Bingo...please quote the source. Nothing more than polite.

LaoPo

[sonicdragon]

The source is markit.com, one of the main credit derivative index calculation and pricing agents. The graph shows pricing on credit default swaps on an index of AAA-tranche mortgage CDOs. Further widening of all mortgage spreads, but particularly the"high" grade, occured this week in the aftermath of Thornbug's defaults. They owned a lot of AAA mortgages - in fact they are one of the largest origjnators of jumbos - unfortunately for them, they financed themselves in the short-term repo market (principally through JP Morgan) and they were unable to make margin calls.

[LaoPo]

The source is markit.com, one of the main credit derivative index calculation and pricing agents. The graph shows pricing on credit default swaps on an index of AAA-tranche mortgage CDOs. Further widening of all mortgage spreads, but particularly the"high" grade, occured this week in the aftermath of Thornbug's defaults. They owned a lot of AAA mortgages - in fact they are one of the largest origjnators of jumbos - unfortunately for them, they financed themselves in the short-term repo market (principally through JP Morgan) and they were unable to make margin calls.

Thanks Sonicdragon.

In the meantime there's good news......and 'he' knows.....

Bush insists US not in recession

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7283512.stm

LaoPo

[disgruntled]

I think Monday will be the day of reckonig. The holdouts will finally admit to there being a recession. Some stocks in the US have been destroyed pricewise and their owners can't be doing to well due to that. There has been a lot of talk about mortgage owners and investors in housing investments suffering but now there are plenty of people who have lost loads in other investments who will be complaining. I think some of the older folks who thought they would be retiring will now have to put off that idea unless their stocks double in value. Those that sold early on are doing well though. The rest have to wait for better days.

It's funny how the social security system and the stock market are so similar. You've got to have faith that when your time comes that some money will be there for you. They always talk of the social security system going bellyup but it seems sometimes stocks can be just as bad.

[ray23]

I have to agree things are bad and really look like they will get worse for awhile. Hard to plan in this but a lose as I could find the average recession lasts one year in the states, based on the seven previous ones since WW II. In each the economy ha recovered, I see no resaon why this one won't with time. Is this average I have no idea, So I'm trying to plan more on two years.

Lets face guys if the markets were nothing but win no one would do anything else.

We must be looking at that magic buy low cycle, to bad I don't have any money

[bingobongo]

the mighty dragon is tiring and inflation is rampant......its coming.....once the olympics are over, short the shanghai index.....and no matter what central bankers do, the inevitable will occur

where will all those out of work chinese go for jobs? something wicked this way comes

China's Trade Surplus Plunges 63 Percent

February's monthly trade gap with the United States, China's No. 2 trading partner, shrank 23 percent to $9.4 billion compared with the same month in 2007, the customs agency said.

http://money.aol.com/news/articles/_a/chin...310083209990049

[LaoPo]

the mighty dragon is tiring and inflation is rampant......its coming.....once the olympics are over, short the shanghai index.....and no matter what central bankers do, the inevitable will occur

where will all those out of work chinese go for jobs? something wicked this way comes

China's Trade Surplus Plunges 63 Percent

February's monthly trade gap with the United States, China's No. 2 trading partner, shrank 23 percent to $9.4 billion compared with the same month in 2007, the customs agency said.

http://money.aol.com/news/articles/_a/chin...310083209990049

Bingo, you just post what you want to post. Don't take the article out of context.

"...analysts said it appeared to be a onetime drop and exports should rebound.

The 63 percent drop in the trade gap from a year ago was due partly to a global slowdown but also to storms that hampered shipping and forced some factories to close, economists said. They said exports also looked unusually small because they were compared with a strong month last February.

"We think the sharp slowdown in China's export growth in February is temporary," Lehman Brothers economist Mingchun Sun said in a report to clients."

Apart from that (the worst weather circumstances in 50 years): In February it was Chinese New Year and nearly 100% of the economy was closed for 10 to 14 days...COMPLETELY.

edit:

In 2007 CNY started on Feb 18th. Export figures are therefore much larger opposite to CNY in 2008 which started on the 7th.

Ever been in China Bingo ?

LaoPo

Edited March 10, 2008 by LaoPo